dwm
dwm
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
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June 5th, 2012 at 10:56:35 AM permalink
Comparing my results as to come-odds vs place betting, the clear winner has been come-odds per the math of the game. And have bet the place bets after a number is rolled similar to the come-odds scenario and the clear winner again is come-odds. Even though they are a pain, come-odds clearly is the winner.

Lately have been betting level odds with overall positive results in 4 sessions(+$600,+300,-700,+200) with this betting scheme, starting with pass-odds and one come-odds bet. Then after a hit on either, going to 2 come bets with pass-odds, then after another hit go to 3 come-odds bets with pass-odds. Then continue with pass-odds and 3 come-odds bets for the remainder of the hand. I do have some wild $500 swings some sessions in this expansion betting playing with 5x odds and 6x odds using $5 base bets., so a high $1000 day session bankroll is probably necessary for maximum chances of a winning day. Overall it does well on a half-way decent table. So going with the math of the game is still, and will always be, the best way, no big surprise.
dwm
dwm
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
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June 6th, 2012 at 11:31:00 AM permalink
Last night changed it up and this resulted in LESS negative swings. And I did it with place bets instead of come-odds, contrary to above. Maybe this may be better afterall.

Started out the new shooter with $5 pass and single odds and then $5,6 place the next box number rolled. IF get a hit on either, then odds go to 5x6x odds and place bet goes to $25,30. Then proceed with 1-2-3 place bets as hit in my expansion betting along with the pass-odds all at $25,30 level betting. This produced a good $1050 win last night with minimal down swings for a pleasant change.
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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June 6th, 2012 at 12:28:40 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Last night changed it up and this resulted in LESS negative swings. And I did it with place bets instead of come-odds, contrary to above. Maybe this may be better afterall.

Started out the new shooter with $5 pass and single odds and then $5,6 place the next box number rolled. IF get a hit on either, then odds go to 5x6x odds and place bet go to $25,30. Then proceed with 1-2-3 place bets as hit in my expansion betting along with the pass-odds all at $25,30 level betting. This produced a good $1050 win last night with minimal down swings for a pleasant change.



dwm, thanks for sharing. A few questions for you....

1) What was your starting bankroll your last session?
2) How long did it take for you to make your profit of $1,050?
3) Did you bet on every single shooter?
4) Did you stay at the same craps table the whole time?

Working on some strategy myself. I usually buy-in for $500 on a $5 Craps table; I think I may not be coming with enough money for my sessions. I'm usually down half of my bankroll within 30 minutes of playing....
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
dwm
dwm
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
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June 6th, 2012 at 8:50:14 PM permalink
Another easy $290 win tonight playing my latest above, was in a +600 to -$250 range today.
CF: I am still using $1000 day session bankroll, but my negative swings are about half what they were with the prior. I played about 8 hrs on the $1000+ win, bet on every shooter. Played 2 different craps tables two sessions. Start off with low bets on the new shooter, too many short rolls can kill a bankroll fast as you know.
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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June 6th, 2012 at 9:58:31 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

Last night changed it up and this resulted in LESS negative swings. And I did it with place bets instead of come-odds, contrary to above.

Here you are again.
Why not just program all your Craps ideas into WinCraps and run millions of sims, way more than you could possibly play in your lifetime, but showing the results of many sessions played as though any others bought into you ideas and played the sessions instead of you.
Your betting systems are not that difficult to play or program for simulation.
Quote: dwm

Maybe this may be better afterall.

No. Not even close.
It is very clear that you do not understand the impact or even the concept of house edge on a wager over many trials.
If you played more sessions in WinCraps, you would see the overall effect perfectly.

The house edge is exactly how much the casino shortchanges a player on every winning bet.

If you are expecting to make over 2,000 lifetime bets, the best bets to make, in order to win the most money and lose the least are the line bets with odds. Period.
Line bets with odds gives the Craps player the best chance during lifetime of play, many, many sessions played, to break even or come out ahead.
No other Craps bet can offer this.

Example of house edge at work.
-1/66 house edge bet.
$30 Place 6 pays $35, should have paid $36. shortchanged by $1 every time
$300 Place 6 pays $350, should have paid $360. shortchanged by $10 every time
$600 Place 6 pays $700, should have paid $720. shortchanged by $20 every time

Do not say you never make a $600 Place 6. Sure you do.
20 - $30 wagers = $600.
You were ripped off by $20 that can never make up for the normal losses when they occur.

Pass/Come bet example. Point 6
$5 with $25 odds
$30 wager. Pays exactly $35. Hey, same as the place bet.

The big difference are the many $5 wins that happen on the come out roll.

How much is the pass/come bettor ripped off or short changed?
The $25 Odds pays $30. No rip-off here! ($25 * (6/5))
$5 pays $5 but should have paid exactly
5.1434426229508196721311475409836 (rounded: $5 * (251/244) = 5.14)

Same winnings but the pass/come bettor was only short changed 14 cents
instead of the $1 the place bettor suffered.
The difference of $600 in wagers: $2.87 shortchanged the line bettor
vs.
$20 over the place bettor.

Who would you rather be?

The masses cry out, "A win is still a win"
True.

But you need now more wins to overcome the losses and the more one plays the harder that is to accomplish.
You need more luck, wins, with place bets, compared to pass/come bets with odds.
That is how sneaky the house edge works. On wins only.
Very smooth and quiet.

IMO, your first method is way better for long term winnings and less losses than method 2 with place bets.
You need the variance with the lowest -ev.
Don't chicken out.

Wait!
Do chicken out.
dwm, keep making those high house edge wagers.
The casinos make more money that way.

That means more money that I can win from the casinos.
Enjoy!
dwm
dwm
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
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June 6th, 2012 at 11:01:47 PM permalink
Guido: Do you play craps? If so what is your betting scheme?
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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June 7th, 2012 at 12:38:21 AM permalink
I prefer come bets over place bets because on a PSO you only lose your pass line with odds, plus you win your come bet, offsetting some of your loss. If you place x amount of dollars across as soon as the point is established, you lose everything. By the time you cover every number making come bets it is hopeful that you have had a couple hits along the way so that if the 7 comes you aren't losing too much. By the odds come bets are better because you get the "come out roll" for each come bet which is to your favor.
dwm
dwm
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June 7th, 2012 at 10:44:59 AM permalink
Winm: You can also use what some call converted come bets, simply placing the number after it is rolled. You will not lose on craps numbers, your flat come bets will not be loss on come out 7s and the payout on hits is greater on place bets at lower level betting. You can do effectively the same scenario by using place bets instead of come bets without the aggravation of come betting. The 7 is never your friend anyway with multiple come bets.

What I am now doing is starting with pass odds only and place the next box rolled after the point is established. Less exposure at first, then place the next box rolled AFTER a paying hit, so now will have 2 place bets with pass-odds. Wait for another pay hit and place the next box rolled so will now have 3 place bets. Then same bets for remainder of hand meaning pass-odds and 3 place bets.
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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June 7th, 2012 at 10:47:44 AM permalink
Quote: dwm

Winm: You can also use what some call converted come bets, simply placing the number after it is rolled. You will not lose on craps numbers, your flat come bets will not be loss on come out 7s and the payout on hits is greater on place bets at lower level betting. You can do effectively the same scenario by using place bets instead of come bets without the aggravation of come betting. The 7 is never your friend anyway with multiple come bets.

What I am now doing is starting with pass odds only and place the next box rolled after the point is established. Less exposure at first, then place the next box rolled AFTER a paying hit, so now will have 2 place bets with pass-odds. Wait for another pay hit and place the next box rolled so will now have 3 place bets. Then same bets for remainder of hand meaning pass-odds and 3 place bets.



The odds are the same whether you wait or put your place bets up right away, but you will last longer at the table with your strategy which is good because you are lowering your exposure on a PSO.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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June 7th, 2012 at 11:13:14 AM permalink
ed4313245
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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