What are the odds of getting 5 units ahead in BJ?

I wasn't sure to put this in BJ or "systems" but it is more of a BJ question I suppose.

As some of you know, the meal you get free tastes a little better and the beer you get free tastes a little smoother. So if I want to "win" dinner at a casino and I figure it will take 5 units to do so, what are the odds of getting 5 units up if I sit down with 20 units and flat bet one unit at a time?

For simplicity lets say

6 decks
H S17
no resplit aces
double on any 2 cards

There are risk of ruin (ROR) simulations on the Wizard of Odds, but offhand I would say your ROR is pretty high with only 20 units.

If you have 100 units, the odds of quitting 5 units up are very high.

removed
silly

Sally,

That was a great response and expounded on the question.

My question is what are the chances of turning 5 units into 15. I changed my stop loss per session to 5 units instead of 10. Win is 10+ units.

Also, to Azduffman: it looks like Sally states that there is about a 20-22% chance of losing 20 units. Is that worth a free dinner? I know that you asked for a reason. If proceeding that way is in your best interest, go ahead. I agree that free room, food, and beverage (R,F,B) tastes better, but winning is best. Plus, they thru me out for winning anyway.

I bet the opposite of most gamblers. I lose less units than I win. 2011 was good to me following perfect money mgt.

Quote: bigpete88

Sally,

That was a great response and expounded on the question.

My question is what are the chances of turning 5 units into 15. I changed my stop loss per session to 5 units instead of 10. Win is 10+ units.

TY
If you are flat betting, again, we know it can not be higher than 5/15 or 33%

Turning 5 into 10 is easier. We know it can not be more than 5/10 or 50%

Using the Excel RoR worksheet, I show 32% for the 15 unit and 49% for the 10.
With such a small bankroll and a high win goal, these numbers could be too high.
A simulation can easily show how close we are.

That comes later

Sally

Sally,

Your numbers are almost exact in real life play. Last year, I was just over 33%. The win for the year came in from the ocassional winning streak with wins exceeding 10 units.

I am going to print your data and put it in my blackjack folder. Casino tonight too with short stops for the session and day :-)

For the original poster, there are options to a 20 unit buy in. Do what is best for you and Good Luck!!!!!!!!

Thanks again