DonPedro
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April 3rd, 2011 at 3:46:12 PM permalink
I do not play the side bets, but wanted to make the comparison . When I asked at a few places,no one seemed to know, even the pit bosses , hmmmmm ???
" If I had the money and the drinking capacity, I'd probably live at a blackjak table and let my life go to hell." Don Pedro
FleaStiff
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April 3rd, 2011 at 3:49:36 PM permalink
I doubt they have to tell you and I certainly doubt that most of the dealers would know.

I've had craps dealers tell me to take No Action on my DontCome bets. They deal the game, maybe they even play it ... that doesn't mean they understand the math.
AZDuffman
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April 3rd, 2011 at 4:03:42 PM permalink
Quote: DonPedro

I do not play the side bets, but wanted to make the comparison . When I asked at a few places,no one seemed to know, even the pit bosses , hmmmmm ???



My firs guess is 90% of dealers do not know much less care the HE on most bets/games. Pit Bosses should be mutch better, but may not want nor be allowed to tell for the casino's fear they say something incorrect or/and affect play by giving out even the correct number.

Dummy up and deal-that is how it seems to be. In class they did try to explain to us students the concept of house edge and what the edge was. I was the only one of 20 or so people who gave it as a % and not a dollar value. It got me a wink from the instructor, then we moved on.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
pacomartin
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April 3rd, 2011 at 7:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: DonPedro

I do not play the side bets, but wanted to make the comparison . When I asked at a few places,no one seemed to know, even the pit bosses , hmmmmm ???



I doubt that they know. Even a given side bet will have different house edge depending on the payout table.The wizard is pretty thorough in analyzing side bets for blackjack where they are very common.

Royal Match has a relatively low house edge for a sidebet. At El Cortez (the oldest casino in downtown Vegas) they have one pay table for a single deck and a different pay table for the double deck. The single deck version is 3.77% and the double deck version is 8.33%. But if you confuse the placards and put the single deck pay table onto the double deck game, the house edge would fall below 1%.

I am sure that the pit boss knows not to make that mistake. The El Cortez will allow you to make the minimum bet on blackjack, but you can put as much as you want on the side bet. I've seen people bet $5 on the game, and $100 on the sidebet. So if someone confused the placards it would have a huge impact on the bottom line.

I've noticed that many people (particularly women) love sidebets. They find the payouts in blackjack to be simply dull and boring. The only thing they remember about a day of playing is how many times they hit the "royal match" or the "lucky ladies".
Face
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April 3rd, 2011 at 7:26:22 PM permalink
I also doubt they know. Dealer's are tasked with remembering odds and payouts, and of course, smiling. Knowledge of HE or any other math (other than calculating odds) aren't required. Likewise for Floor Supe's or Pit Bosses. They're in the protection game, as well as customer service. Their math requirements likewise need only be good enough to notice correct payouts.

I think when it comes to the math behind the game, that falls under High Management. Table Games Directors, Casino GM's, etc. They very much need to understand the game, and the math behind it, but due to their positions they are often behind the scenes and therefore not available to contact.
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pacomartin
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April 3rd, 2011 at 8:11:15 PM permalink
Quote: Face

I think when it comes to the math behind the game, that falls under High Management. Table Games Directors, Casino GM's, etc. They very much need to understand the game, and the math behind it, but due to their positions they are often behind the scenes and therefore not available to contact.



Video #16 (1 minute) is an excerpt from "The Casino", a short lived reality series about two young men who bought the Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas in 2004 from MGM-Mirage. At the urging of Tim Poster they increased the free odds at the Crap table and also lifted the table limits.

Tom is complaining about the higher limits and better odds for the craps players. Since they changed the odds everyone is winning. Tim says that the "laws of probability still exist at the Golden Nugget, just like everywhere else ... it's like a bubble, and the bubble can only get so big before it bursts".

The comment seems to show very little understanding of the laws of probability. The variance is as important as the expected value. Since the casino was relatively small they were taking a huge chance by allowing this high limit bets. Also the bit about the bubble is classic gambler's fallacy (only it is the casino owner talking).

In the book they describe a lucky whale they will called "Mr Royalty" who won $8.5 million over two weeks, and destroyed much of their profit for the year.

Despite the luck of "Mr Royalty" they manage to increase the table games by $8.283 million and $6.140 million in slots, + $161 thousand in poker for an increase of $14.584 million in revenue over when MGM-Mirage owned the property. Unfortunately the cost and expenses of the casino department went up $18.909 million.

Operating income dropped slightly from $9 million down to $7 million, but unfortunately they had to borrow $155 million to buy the property. The interest on that loan meant that they lost $8.5 million for the year. However, they sold the property for a $117 million profit.
FleaStiff
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April 3rd, 2011 at 8:31:12 PM permalink
They were lifelong bookmakers and had cobbled together one of the earliest 800 number and internet generalized reservations systems for Vegas, they took the profits and bought a casino. I'm sure they had played craps, probably since infancy but that doesn't mean they were experts at the math. They knew about "own the casino" as the way to make profits consistently in gambling but that doesn't mean they really knew all that much about owning a casino.

It would probably have been fine if they had dozens of high rollers but they had only a few whales and the whales got lucky and then took a powder.

When Steve Wynn originally bought the Golden Nugget he soon learned that seven or eight of his top people were divvying up chips each night. Shortly thereafter he had to fire almost half his casino personnel. So how good were the books prior to the purchase? All those reports to the gaming commission? I understand this was after the mob days where the much mentioned skimming was rampant. Someone in management didn't know what was going on.
pacomartin
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April 3rd, 2011 at 8:56:05 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

When Steve Wynn originally bought the Golden Nugget he soon learned that seven or eight of his top people were divvying up chips each night. Shortly thereafter he had to fire almost half his casino personnel. So how good were the books prior to the purchase? All those reports to the gaming commission? I understand this was after the mob days where the much mentioned skimming was rampant. Someone in management didn't know what was going on.



Well the whole point was that I was responding to someone who said he thought the casino owners needed to thoroughly understand the mathematics.

Tim Poster and Tom Breitling settled on the Golden Nugget on 23 January 2004 almost 30 years after the events that you are talking about. MGM bought the Golden Nugget along with the rest of Mirage Inc. in June of 2000. At first they didn't want to sell, but after three years of no growth, they decided to turn it into cash and concentrate on their vision for city center.

I think that Tim and Tom got the property for a good price, less than one year's net revenue. That price was what allowed them to sell it to Landry's Restaurant in a year's time for $113 million profit. I have never quite understood why Landry's didn't purchase the property in 2003 directly from MGM-Mirage. They may not have been financially ready.

When MGM took over (net revenue for Las Vegas property only, plus $30-$40 million for Laughlin property).
$176,497 - 2000
$176,242 - 2001
$176,729 - 2002
$189,662 - 2003 (when the deal was being negotiated in the summer of 2003
$210,789 - 2004 - Tim & Tom closed on 23 January, the TV show was that summer


Face
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April 3rd, 2011 at 11:52:30 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Well the whole point was that I was responding to someone who said he thought the casino owners needed to thoroughly understand the mathematics.



Needed? Yes. But do they?

In my limited experience, I'd say most don't. I didn't mean to imply that gaming is a perfect world and they all do understand, but only that if ANYONE in the pace does, that's where you're most likely to find it. And based on my experience, plus the info you supplied, it would seem that even that's a stretch. So if the people whose job it IS to understand it don't, the chances that floor personnel 'get it' is even less. My point? Don't be surprise when you ask for the HE and are turned down =)
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MathExtremist
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April 4th, 2011 at 12:22:49 AM permalink
Quote: DonPedro

I do not play the side bets, but wanted to make the comparison . When I asked at a few places,no one seemed to know, even the pit bosses , hmmmmm ???


The casino doesn't have to tell you the edge on anything -- table games or slot games. It's up to you to investigate your wagering options and determine which bets to make. The only restriction I'm aware of is when a casino actively advertises the edge, such as on a bank of slot machines which says at least X % payback. In that case, I believe that advertising must be true.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
FleaStiff
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April 4th, 2011 at 1:03:12 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

The only restriction I'm aware of is when a casino actively advertises the edge, such as on a bank of slot machines which says at least X % payback. In that case, I believe that advertising must be true.

That "up to" is likely to be in far smaller type size than the 99.9%. There is little disclosure and much of the disclosure that does exist is deceptive. Just look at the foot high signage involving 6:5 blackjack. Nor do they have to say anything about "when played perfectly by someone who is perfectly sober".
pacomartin
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April 4th, 2011 at 1:56:36 AM permalink
Quote: Face

Needed? Yes. But do they?In my limited experience, I'd say most don't.



Well, they did really drive up their table game revenue to very high levels. When that reality show was airing table game revenue was up by 60% for the 2nd quarter that year. They were riding high, and featured in People magazine as some of the most eligible bachelors of the year.


But with the higher table limits comes greater risk. After 8 months somebody walks in worth hundreds of millions and starts laying down huge bets and gets unbelievably lucky. After that they closed down the high limits and revenue went back to what it was under MGM.

Of course, it is reality television. They are playing to the camera, and the camera has hundreds of hours of footage which they pair down to a couple of freak out moments. With the large limits there had to be some days that were just terrible.
DJTeddyBear
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April 4th, 2011 at 5:00:46 AM permalink
Quote:

Does a casino have to tell you the HE on a side bet if you ask ???

I doubt they would even know.

In fact, I doubt they would know for the base game.

All bets on a Double Zero Roulette table have the same edge - except one, whch is considerably higher.

I would not be surprised to learn that the average casino dealer / floor person / pit boss / whatever, would not be able to tell you which bet that was.
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FleaStiff
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April 4th, 2011 at 6:03:22 AM permalink
Just as these executives gave up control over the show so the casino's image was that of a place where wives should worry about a husband taking a trip to Vegas, they gave up control over the High Roller situation thru ignorance.

However, the average gambler would never be asking these two guys anything. The average gambler would ask a dealer, floorman or pitboss. Dealers would be first line source of information particularly if dealer is trying to entice a passerby into joining a slow or empty table. Dealers often don't really speak English.

Roulette Dealer to passerby: What's your favorite number?
Passerby: Black.

Now does this show understanding of the House Edge? Or of Variance?
At least the player didn't do that 0,00, 1, 2, 3 bet.
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