Salthouse
Salthouse
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 23
Joined: Jul 30, 2017
February 8th, 2024 at 2:10:02 PM permalink
6 deck game good strip rules stand 17 DAS respilt aces.

You get to play one hand.

I remove out of the deck in front you the following:

2 x 10
1x Ace
4 x 5's
4x6's
2x4s
2x 9
1 x7
2 x 8
3x3
4x2

This gives you a Hi lo count +14 or Halves count +13.5

I shuffle the remaing cards left and I deal you 1 card.

I then put back into the deck the above cards removed.

I shuffle and complete the deal of the blackjack hand.

Therefore completing the hand with 6 decks minus the card i have dealt you.

You play it out accordingly.

Do you have an edge ?

Would you play?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11008
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
February 8th, 2024 at 3:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: Salthouse

6 deck game good strip rules stand 17 DAS respilt aces.

You get to play one hand.

I remove out of the deck in front you the following:

2 x 10
1x Ace
4 x 5's
4x6's
2x4s
2x 9
1 x7
2 x 8
3x3
4x2

This gives you a Hi lo count +14 or Halves count +13.5

I shuffle the remaing cards left and I deal you 1 card.

I then put back into the deck the above cards removed.

I shuffle and complete the deal of the blackjack hand.

Therefore completing the hand with 6 decks minus the card i have dealt you.

You play it out accordingly.

Do you have an edge ?

Would you play?
link to original post



I think you have an edge. You are more likely to be dealt an ace or a 10/face. But if in a 6 deck game not remarkably so. Once you have your card the decks are then normalized. Iíd say you have less than 1% edge. But an edge. (Just a guess)
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 5549
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 8th, 2024 at 8:14:47 PM permalink

Only the player's first card is dealt from a positive count.
All other cards are dealt from a neutral count.
Any hit cards are dealt from a neutral count. Dealer drawing to a stiff is not more likely to bust.
The dealer's downcard is dealt from a neutral count, so there is no useful insurance information.
May the cards fall in your favor.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11008
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
February 8th, 2024 at 8:22:20 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter


Only the player's first card is dealt from a positive count.
All other cards are dealt from a neutral count.
Any hit cards are dealt from a neutral count. Dealer drawing to a stiff is not more likely to bust.
The dealer's downcard is dealt from a neutral count, so there is no useful insurance information.

link to original post



But the player is more likely to get an ace or a face card. In a neutral count give me an ace and itís a HUGE advantage. Give me a Face and itís an advantage as well.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 5549
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 8th, 2024 at 11:09:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Dieter


Only the player's first card is dealt from a positive count.
All other cards are dealt from a neutral count.
Any hit cards are dealt from a neutral count. Dealer drawing to a stiff is not more likely to bust.
The dealer's downcard is dealt from a neutral count, so there is no useful insurance information.

link to original post



But the player is more likely to get an ace or a face card. In a neutral count give me an ace and itís a HUGE advantage. Give me a Face and itís an advantage as well.
link to original post



If I'm doing the mathy things right, I'm seeing about 0.3% increase in the chance to draw an ace on the first card.
May the cards fall in your favor.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11008
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
February 9th, 2024 at 3:58:57 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Dieter


Only the player's first card is dealt from a positive count.
All other cards are dealt from a neutral count.
Any hit cards are dealt from a neutral count. Dealer drawing to a stiff is not more likely to bust.
The dealer's downcard is dealt from a neutral count, so there is no useful insurance information.

link to original post



But the player is more likely to get an ace or a face card. In a neutral count give me an ace and itís a HUGE advantage. Give me a Face and itís an advantage as well.
link to original post



If I'm doing the mathy things right, I'm seeing about 0.3% increase in the chance to draw an ace on the first card.
link to original post



Add the face card increase and itís probably a slight player edge.
Salthouse
Salthouse
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 23
Joined: Jul 30, 2017
February 9th, 2024 at 11:58:51 AM permalink
Perhaps Mr Wizard can weigh in with his learned opinion?
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 10th, 2024 at 9:59:50 PM permalink
My unresearched thoughts:

1) The 1 card dealt to me is clearly with an advantage.
2) I don't know if it's enough to overcome the house edge of the game, assuming generic .5%...

The way I'd go about solving this is running a pretty easy 1 deck sim creating an "average value," to the player, of the first card from the +14. Knowing how much that's card worth obviously will tell you if you're going to overcome the standard house edge, assuming all else being neutral.
Last edited by: Romes on Feb 10, 2024
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11720
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
Romes
February 11th, 2024 at 5:16:16 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

My unresearched thoughts:

1) The 1 card dealt to me is clearly with an advantage.
2) I don't know if it's enough to overcome the house edge of the game, assuming generic .5%...

The way I'd go about solving this is running a pretty easy 1 deck sim creating an "average value," to the player, of the first card from the +14. Knowing how much that's card worth obviously will tell you if you're going to overcome the standard house edge, assuming all else being neutral.
link to original post



Welcome back Romes, you have been missed around here.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
aceside
aceside
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 464
Joined: May 14, 2021
February 11th, 2024 at 7:36:08 AM permalink
It seems like that the OP is asking about card counting a CSM shuffler. We can estimate the player edge.

Firstly we assume that it is a Hit-17 game and the player draw all of his cards when a 6-deck shoe is depleted just like above. Under these conditions, the player edge is about +0.7%.

The player edge comes mostly from playerís Naturals, while the probability of a Natural is the product of an Ace probability and a ten-valued card probability. Skip the details here. I estimate the overall playerís edge under the OPís description is negative.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 2151
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
February 11th, 2024 at 7:43:41 AM permalink
The op said it was a stand s17 game
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
  • Threads: 60
  • Posts: 5049
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
February 11th, 2024 at 8:47:43 PM permalink
Quote: Salthouse

6 deck game good strip rules stand 17 DAS respilt aces.

You get to play one hand.

I remove out of the deck in front you the following:

2 x 10
1x Ace
4 x 5's
4x6's
2x4s
2x 9
1 x7
2 x 8
3x3
4x2

This gives you a Hi lo count +14 or Halves count +13.5

I shuffle the remaing cards left and I deal you 1 card.

I then put back into the deck the above cards removed.

I shuffle and complete the deal of the blackjack hand.

Therefore completing the hand with 6 decks minus the card i have dealt you.

You play it out accordingly.

Do you have an edge ?

Would you play?
link to original post



With those cards removed from the deck, players edge would be +0.637% -assuming all player and dealer cards were drawn from the depleted deck.

However, given only one card drawn with that distribution, I think your EV would only be slightly better than the conventional House Edge. Your odds of getting an ace or ten on the first card would be slightly higher than with a fresh deck.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 11th, 2024 at 9:53:48 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


However, given only one card drawn with that distribution, I think your EV would only be slightly better than the conventional House Edge. Your odds of getting an ace or ten on the first card would be slightly higher than with a fresh deck.
link to original post

Since the advantage to the player would be so small I think it's worth mentioning the dealer would have 1 advantage in this reversal situation... Mistakes. You're human. Even the best of us make mistakes from time to time due to 1 of a million live things that could happen to force on upon us. The dealer would never make a mistake/deviate from the preset strategy. So your tiny advantage could end up being -EV if you happen to have a couple bad days and make even just a couple mistakes. Interesting view of the game and interesting thread.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
  • Jump to: