homany
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018
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July 6th, 2020 at 6:47:24 AM permalink
hello there

I am recently bumped into Ace Five counting system and I find it super interesting because my goal is not making money in casinos but not playing a losing game. professional card counting is not simply my thing in a casino. so anyways, my question is how effective this strategy could be in Spanish 21 or double/ single deck games? better or worse? if it is applicable in these games, would it require any basic strategy deviation or not? let's assume that we have 75% penetration on all of these cases. I am far from a math expert so i need your assistance here :)

thanks for your insights in advanced
Romes
Romes
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homanyMinty
July 6th, 2020 at 10:41:03 PM permalink
Hi homany,

One thing I like to mention to everyone that plays the Ace/Five counting system is this: You're still playing a losing game unless you understand all elements of any "system" such as Bankroll Management, Rick of Ruin (RoR), variance, Kelly Betting, etc. If you don't fully understand Kelly betting / your bet spread / etc, then you will always be playing a losing game, even with a winning counting system (which ace/five really isn't... in extreme cases it can be slightly profitable). If you're willing to understand kelly, RoR, etc, then you're multitudes better off (even if you're not trying to go pro) with a better system. If the true count conversion seems daunting to you, try something like KO which has no such conversion.

I don't mean to sound rude, but if you're not interested in learning bankroll management, ror, kelly, etc, then the question you posed is really quite moot, as you're not going to be playing a "break even" game on regular blackjack nor spanish 21.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
homany
homany
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July 7th, 2020 at 2:11:53 AM permalink
I am new to this and I am being learning. I already know couple of concepts you mentioned and I am studying on other ones. can you assume I am familiar with those concepts and answer my question? thanks.
Minty
Minty
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homany
July 7th, 2020 at 3:56:47 AM permalink
You mentioned single and double deck games. It would be more successful in these blackjack games than Spanish 21. However, as Romes mentioned you'll want to understand those other components as well. If you really are interested in a break even or positive game without counting look into Max Rubin's Comp City.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
homany
homany
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July 7th, 2020 at 4:11:14 AM permalink
thanks for the answer. can you please elaborate? why it could be more successful in a single deck? and if it could be even more successful in single deck compare to 6 or 8 decks shoe?
Minty
Minty
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homany
July 7th, 2020 at 4:17:13 AM permalink
Ah, well I'm admittedly not nearly as mathematically inclined as many of the other posters here so you'll likely get better answers from them. Spanish 21 is much different than blackjack, so I imagine any counting system would have to be altered significantly to account for the changed decks. Single deck games will have a lower house edge if they have better rules than shoe games, so by default you would do better with them. Still, I caution you about thinking any number of decks with the ace five count will be successful, especially if you don't look into things like bet spread and penetration.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese
kewlj
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homanyMintyRomes
July 7th, 2020 at 7:44:33 AM permalink
I don't play much Spanish 21 so I don't know how Ace-5 count would effect that game. Off the top of my head I would think not very well. For regular blackjack, Ace-5 dosen't do much. The days of good games where Ace-5 could get you close to break even are pretty much gone. Single deck 75% pen, yeah maybe, IF IT PAYS 3-2. BE absolutely sure about this before you start playing.

For the most part I will echo Romes. Hi-Lo is a simple count that works. You really don't want to go any "simpler" than that. If the issue is the true count conversion, just go with K-O. Basically the same strength with no TC conversion. . Anything "simpler" than that like speed count of ace-5 and you are getting a much weaker count and probably not worth the effort with today's games.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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homany
July 7th, 2020 at 10:20:52 AM permalink
Quote: homany

thanks for the answer. can you please elaborate? why it could be more successful in a single deck? and if it could be even more successful in single deck compare to 6 or 8 decks shoe?




Let's take single deck. When a single five comes out of the deck, it is roughly equivalent to 8 fives coming out of the deck in a game dealt from an 8-deck shoe. If 2 fives are dealt from a single deck, its equivalent to 16 fives from an 8-deck shoe. Statistically, you will have 2 fives come out of a single deck far more frequently than 16 fives coming out of an 8 decks.

So, the swings in the count are larger and more frequent in single deck and double deck BJ, thus you have more opportunities to have a positive count.

When I first learned to count (decades ago) I started with A-5, usually on single or double deck games. I guess it was a good way to ease into counting but I switched pretty rapidly to HiLo: Tens = +1; 2,3,4,5 = -1.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
homany
homany
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July 7th, 2020 at 10:42:33 AM permalink
thank you so much. i totally get the fact that ace five counting is not the best way to count cards but i just want to know more facts and info about it. most probably i will switch to better approaches in the future. i am no mathematician but i am interested in numbers and facts. based on the numbers wizard has provided, the HE of his selected bj game is 0.285 with basic strategy and cut card and player can have a 0.3% positive edge on 1-8 bet spread. is it a correct way of thinking if we assume that ace/five count help players to gain 0.58% edge? therefore, it would be better to apply it to single or double deck games which usually have lower HE? of course, plus the good point you mentioned about them...
billryan
billryan
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homany
July 7th, 2020 at 1:30:59 PM permalink
I don't think you will be able to spread 1-8 in any single deck game, and even if you could, why risk eight units on such a weak system.

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