I have replenishable BR of 8k. Am I betting optimally here? Please advice.
I'd say TC 0 or less $10
TC 1 $20
TC 2 $40
TC 3 $50
TC 4 $70
TC 5+ $80
use only red chips for betting.
If you can easily replenish your bankroll because you have a substantial income from employment with plenty of disposable income, I could get behind a max bet of $130 or so.
Please note if you are playing two hands then you must bet less.
bet spread $10 to $320+?!Quote: TomG
That looks pretty aggressive, but if you’re looking to be truly optimal, you’ll have to be more aggressive than most others would be willing. You’ll also have to bet even more at +4
what casino wont throw you out for doing that?!
Finally, for a S17 game, especially one with PA rules you mentioned (S17 LS) you do indeed have a decent advantage at TC +1. While for "rounding" math it's easy to consider each TC worth .5, TC +1 is actually worth a bit more, around .75 actually. Thus, if you're playing a .36% game, at TC +1 you'll have over a quarter of a percent advantage. Not the best, but definitely worth upping your bet.
I'd recommend the following:
TC < -1 = $0 (sit out)
TC < +1 = $10
TC = +1 = $30
TC = +2 = $60
TC = +3 = $120
TC = +4 = $160
Another 'tid bit' is that TC +3, due to it's advantage and frequency, is kind of the most 'bang for your buck' true count, which is why I recommend having the largest jump in your spread at TC +3.
Do be aware that this is a decently aggressive spread and that after some exposure it might get some attention. Heat will depend on each individual casino, but I don't know that you could camp out for hours and hours with this spread (if your intention is to camp out).
It depends on your options and how you're going to play. If you have a lot of casinos around, you should have a higher spread and then bounce from place to place as to not wear out your welcome. If you have only 1 place, you'd need to get a feel for their sweat levels at your level of play (red chip). If they don't care about red chips, then you can camp out and spread 1-16... but I'd say more than not 1-16 won't be tolerated day in day out for camping out purposes. If you're a weekend warrior, perhaps, or perhaps for at least a little while.Quote: blick
Thanks everyone for the replies. If you guys think 1-16 spread is aggressive, what about 1-12 spread? is that better and get less heat/no heat usually? is anything less than 1-12 spread with $10 as min bet, worth it? Appreciate all your inputs.
While I agree with everything TomG said, I think something important to keep in mind is that at the red chip level you're not making much EV. So downing max to 1% would probably bring his hourly EV down to something like $6/hour, less than minimum wage. At this level a lot of times people will trade a bit more RoR for EV, but again, it's up to each individual person. You could 'run well' and never even need 20 max bets on your run to N0. When I first started I used a replenishment bankroll and was lucky enough to run well enough not to need to replenish. So when I hit my first big downswing it was most of the profits I'd already won and not even dipping in to my original bankroll. I had a "unique and lucky" experience, but it is the 'other side of the curve' and does happen. So long as he's willing to replenish to 100 max bets (which I'm betting if he SIM'd it with PA rules you'd need less than 100 max bets) then he should be fine to run the 1-16 and get the "decent" hourly EV for the red chips (~$25/hour). This is without a good side bet ;-).Quote: TomG
A 1-12 spread would be worse than 1-16; 1-20 would be better. The problem you have to deal with isn't how much you spread, it's betting up to 2% of your bankroll. Instead of replenishing your bankroll if you lose, you could just plenish it from the start, so that your max bet is closer to 1%
How do you bet $80 with only red chips? A stack of 16 chips? Doesn't the pit boss know that a teetering stack of red chips is the same as three greens and one red?
I'm going to Mesquite NV next week.
But using 16 chips is not ideal either because the dealer might not grab enough chips and then have to bring everything back to the tray or knock something over. You want to use fewer chips whenever possible, and you want to bet in only one colour.