Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:08:01 PM permalink
Hi All,

For the last year, I've been playing at an online casino that has a built in player advantage of ~0.4%. This is not a live dealer game. It is a RNG game with rules that favor the player based on a discrepancy in the stated gameplay rules, and the actual rules programmed in the game.

I've been tracking my results for almost a year and am sharing them here. I'd like to know from the experts on this forum, is this game rigged or not?
I am currently 4.5 SD's away from expected results based on my calcs.

I cannot post link to google spreadsheet yet because I don't have 20 posts - will try to get to 20 and post it after..
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:11:29 PM permalink
Meanwhile, feel free to post a summary of your results. It will be nice to see an accusation of casino cheating with numbers as opposed to insults, starting with the letter N, for a change.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:17:04 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Meanwhile, feel free to post a summary of your results. It will be nice to see an accusation of casino cheating with numbers as opposed to insults, starting with the letter N, for a change.



Understood.

Here's the summary.

155,865 hands played
2,848,140 total wagered
Win/Loss = -$25,690
Expected player advantage 0.4%
Std Deviation per hand = 1.12 (I used 1.2544 in my calcs because I normally play two hands at a time)
Avg bet size - $18.27

Anything else you need?

Edit: I used cardcounting.com/calcrisk.htm to get this odds of this result.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:25:29 PM permalink
Quote: Johnboy85

Understood.

Here's the summary.

155,865 hands played
2,848,140 total wagered
Win/Loss = -$25,690
Expected player advantage 0.4%
Std Deviation per hand = 1.12 (I used 1.2544 in my calcs because I normally play two hands at a time)
Avg bet size - $18.27

Anything else you need?



Thanks. I'll need to know the amount bet for every hand to get the standard deviation of your play as a whole.

155,865 hands -- that is quite a few!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:29:49 PM permalink
Yes - it is quite a few!

I do not have individual hand histories as that data cannot be downloaded from this shop. I only have data for each "day" as a whole.
Correct me if I'm wrong, is the 4.5 SD I cited via the website calculator above not enough?

Edit to ask: furthermore, if you had individual hand histories, how much could this theoretically change the SD of my play as a whole. I say this because I will admit that most sessions were in the $5 flat betting range, while very few sessions had avg bet sizes of $50-$75 when my bankroll grew quickly.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:30:55 PM permalink
Quote: Johnboy85

Hi All,

For the last year, I've been playing at an online casino that has a built in player advantage of ~0.4%. This is not a live dealer game. It is a RNG game with rules that favor the player based on a discrepancy in the stated gameplay rules, and the actual rules programmed in the game.

I've been tracking my results for almost a year and am sharing them here. I'd like to know from the experts on this forum, is this game rigged or not?
I am currently 4.5 SD's away from expected results based on my calcs.

I cannot post link to google spreadsheet yet because I don't have 20 posts - will try to get to 20 and post it after..


What are the rules of the game?
Are you sure this discrepancy is worth as much as you think?
Don't teach an alligator how to swim.
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:36:44 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

What are the rules of the game?
Are you sure this discrepancy is worth as much as you think?



I knew this question would come up and respectfully I will keep that a secret for now as I think if I divulged this, it would be a giveaway and could alert the operator of their mistake.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:39:59 PM permalink
Quote: Johnboy85

I knew this question would come up and respectfully I will keep that a secret for now as I think if I divulged this, it would be a giveaway and could alert the operator of their mistake.


Understandable.
Don't teach an alligator how to swim.
teliot
teliot
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January 18th, 2017 at 8:17:23 PM permalink
You can't use your average bet. Either your bets were constant or you need to know your exact bets. Otherwise, using the average will result in the standard deviation for the sample being too small and therefore the z-Score too large.
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
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January 18th, 2017 at 8:28:35 PM permalink
How much would variance in bet sizing affect the true SD? Enough to drastically alter the 4.5 SD cited?

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