What simulations do you guys use and covered shoe blackjack

Hello guys, I know there are a lot of APs and people who can do simulations on this board. How do you guys do simulations on rule variations (doubling down with more than 3 cards, allowed to resplit aces, hit split aces and double down on split aces, allowed to split stiffs...etc)? Also, at my land based casino, there is a shoe blackjack shuffled via ASM but the shoe is covered, generally they'd offer 50% pen (shitty af, I know but still better than CSM no?) How do you approximate the TC when the shoe is actually covered without eyeballing how many decks are left? I can try to eyeball the discard tray but last time I was sitting near first base so it was a bit harder.

I use CVCX. Sit nearer to the discard tray if you have trouble seeing it.

Quote: dajakesta

How do you approximate the TC when the sh I can try to eyeball the discard tray but last time I was sitting near first base so it was a bit harder.

You can estimate the number of cards played by counting the number of hands and multiplying by 2.7 (2.6 with ENHC)

Quote: RS

I use CVCX. Sit nearer to the discard tray if you have trouble seeing it.

This... and I'll add that every counter I know has never looked at the shoe... We always look at discard tray to estimate the number of decks remaining.

Quote: PhilippeB

You can estimate the number of cards played by counting the number of hands and multiplying by 2.7 (2.6 with ENHC)

This is not bad information at all, but I would not recommend it to anyone that's not very experienced in counting. Remembering the count, converting to true count, remembering your spread and deviations, etc, is enough to remember... Let alone the number of rounds played and the average number of players that have been at the table (since people can get up or sit down). I would recommend looking at the discard tray, and as RS said if you have trouble seeing it from 1st base then either practice more and/or sit closer to 3rd base.

**Lastly, but most importantly: 50% penetration isn't just shitty... It's 'practically' unbeatable. A lot of people have posted on these forums about "Online Live" games with 50% penetration and it's just awful. You'll rarely get a good count and when you do you'll be forced to spread extra hard (since it's a rare opportunity with such crappy penetration) and by doing that you're going to skyrocket your variance and your bankroll requirements to a point that I highly highly doubt you're properly funded and thus will bust.

If your options are to play a CSM or a 50% shoe penetration game, you should look for "other opportunities" with the CSM's rather than attempt to plug away at an AWFUL/unbeatable 50% penetration game.

**Lastly, but most importantly: 50% penetration isn't just shitty... It's 'practically' unbeatable. A lot of people have posted on these forums about "Online Live" games with 50% penetration and it's just awful. You'll rarely get a good count and when you do you'll be forced to spread extra hard (since it's a rare opportunity with such crappy penetration) and by doing that you're going to skyrocket your variance and your bankroll requirements to a point that I highly highly doubt you're properly funded and thus will bust.

If your options are to play a CSM or a 50% shoe penetration game, you should look for "other opportunities" with the CSM's rather than attempt to plug away at an AWFUL/unbeatable 50% penetration game.

what can i do then, we only play no hole card bj, so holecarding is out, csm pen is around a pitiful 10%, 40% pen on dd is just total garbage, only thing left is to hole card 3cp or UTH(if I get my superstar flasher), but the variance is so high and I'm not too sure about UTH HC strats