I'm not really a math guy, but this is question is simple basic statistics. No memory means no memory. Random means random. EV reflects the OVERALL expectation of value over an infinite number of iterations. When you say "cards", do you mean, for example, Black Jack? If all of the aces and tens are dealt from the top of the shoe, then yes, the EV changes for that shoe... but that is an expected fluctuation (a variance). EV is the average outcome of all of these variances over an infinite number of iterations, and so, by definition, never changes.
For you to recognize that a shoe is in a state of higher or lower EV requires you to be counting cards (recording the past history). In craps and Roulette, that won't help you, no matter what the past history of rolls is.
So, I think this is a matter of terminology, confusing overall EV with states of variance that you can take advantage of from shoe to shoe by counting cards.
Being up $5k early just means you're more likely to be ABOVE the originally estimated EV... not that "you've got a lot of it early" etc.Quote: RS
Not sure why you used 100k then later 50k EV figures, I assume this is an error and you meant the 100k for all of them.
If you project to play 1000 hours and project an EV of 100k (100/hour)....then if you play 5 hours and profit 5k, then you have 9995 hours to go. Your future EV is $99,500, but since you're already at +$5k, you could, at this point, say you expect to be at +$104,500 for the year.
Imagine a line graph: EV and actual. Your future EV is always going to be the same ($100/hour), assuming you don't alter your game plan. After 5 hours and being up $5k, your EV for the 1000 hours would still be $100k, but your projected profit would be $104,500.