SPabs
SPabs
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November 4th, 2016 at 6:20:44 PM permalink
Say I'm dealt a 7 and a 5, I choose to hit. I know how to calculate the chances of that hit being 21, but how would I find the probability of not busting i.e. calculate the probability of getting 21 or less?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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November 4th, 2016 at 8:47:42 PM permalink
If you know how to calculate the chances of getting a 9, then you know how to calculate the chances of getting an 8,7,6,5,4,3,2 or A, right?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
djtehch34t
djtehch34t
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November 4th, 2016 at 11:25:02 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

If you know how to calculate the chances of getting a 9, then you know how to calculate the chances of getting an 8,7,6,5,4,3,2 or A, right?



I will add to this advice that if you know the probability of getting a 10 is p, then you also know the chance of getting a card other than a 10 is 1 - p. That should speed things up :p.
RS
RS
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November 5th, 2016 at 12:50:14 PM permalink
Are you talking about multiple hits or just one hit? One hit is simple. Multiple hits, not so simple.
zak.young
zak.young
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November 5th, 2016 at 4:45:34 PM permalink
It's pretty simple. 4/13 you bust, 9/13 you don't.
Francisco
Francisco
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November 5th, 2016 at 6:24:26 PM permalink
Bust rate for hard 16 = 61.5%
15 = 58.6%
14= 55%
13= 50.82%
12= 46.13%
To calculate, a little complicated .
Francisco
Francisco
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November 5th, 2016 at 7:05:40 PM permalink
Ok, go to blackjackinfo.com, search for " The most common myth in blackjack " read thru the article, go to the comments, find the answer from Kent Smith, about how to calculate the bust rates for all the hard hands.
zak.young
zak.young
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November 6th, 2016 at 6:42:00 AM permalink
Your chance of busting with one hit card and a total of 12 is 30.7%. There are only 4 cards that will bust you, T, J, Q and K.
SPabs
SPabs
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November 7th, 2016 at 6:14:00 AM permalink
@RS Yes, I'd like to expand it to that, maybe I was dealt 2 2's or something and already know I'll hit at least twice. Any ideas on how to go about doing that?

Thanks for the replies everyone! As a side note I'm not looking for percentages as much as the process of how to get there.
orangebishop
orangebishop
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November 7th, 2016 at 7:42:47 AM permalink
my job is to give value to people like you so i'm gonna give you some i hope it helps you
check out: gambling simplicity . com

it should give you all the help you need and if you send me a email i'll give you a free copy of my book

get in touch with me at gamblingsimplicity@gmail . com

i'm happy to help
Francisco
Francisco
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November 7th, 2016 at 5:58:52 PM permalink
So, you have 9,7 hard 16 , 5/13 will give you 17- 21, 8/13 will bust you.
You have 9,6 hard 15, 2-6 ( 5/13) will give you 17 -21, 7/13 ( 7,8,9,10, J, q,K) will bust you. Then there is Ace, then you have hard 16. You repeat the culculation of hard 16 .
If this is what you want to know, then look up the web site I refer to you earlier. Ken Smith can explain it better.
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