Poll

No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
8 votes (88.88%)
1 vote (11.11%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)

9 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1313
  • Posts: 21506
October 6th, 2016 at 6:37:22 PM permalink
I ran into the guys with Next Step Blackjack at the Global Gaming Expo. In case that name sounds familiar, I made a video of the game at the Cutting Edge show.



I'm told the game has a couple placements in Mississippi, which makes it eligible for a write-up. So please see my new page on Next Step Blackjack. I'm concerned I may have made a mistake in the math because the house edges I would quoted at the show do not agree with my math. I've tried to reach the makers for their math report but haven't had a response.

So, I welcome the amateur and expert mathematicians on the forum to work this out as a homework assignment. Here is a table showing my combinations for the various dice totals of four dice:

Total Total
4 to 16 986
17 104
18 80
19 56
20 35
21 20
22 to 24 15
Total 1296


The question for the poll is would you play Next Step Blackjack?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
Joined: Jul 9, 2010
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 894
October 7th, 2016 at 12:59:39 AM permalink
Voted no due to the house edge, and if I'm not interested in that side bet why would I sit at a table where that bet slows down play considerably when a dice roll is required to resolve the bet?
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 165
  • Posts: 8866
October 7th, 2016 at 2:06:41 AM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

Voted no due to the house edge, and if I'm not interested in that side bet why would I sit at a table where that bet slows down play considerably when a dice roll is required to resolve the bet?



A basic strategy player that didn't play the sidebets would be at his biggest advantage while the dice were be rolled. Less hands per hour works to their advantage, if everything else is equal.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1313
  • Posts: 21506
October 10th, 2016 at 11:19:28 AM permalink
I hope Chesterdog won't mind if I quote his own analysis.

Quote: ChesterDog




PlayerDealer2120191817OtherTOTAL
heart AKno bj
32911200
57594600
92151360
131644800
171138240
1647205560
2132645760
suited bjno bj
493668000
863919000
1382270400
1974672000
2567073600
24708083400
31989686400
reg. bjno bj
1579737600
2764540800
4423265280
6318950400
8214635520
79065866880
102366996480
no bjno bj
42160158000
73780276500
118048442400
168640632000
219232821600
2110115907900
2731978238400
heart AKbj
1573200
2753100
4404960
6292800
8180640
78738660
101943360
suited bjbj
23598000
41296500
66074400
94392000
122709600
1181079900
1529150400
reg. bjbj
75513600
132148800
211438080
302054400
392670720
3779455680
4893281280
no bjbj
2106316800
3686054400
5897687040
8425267200
10952847360
105421155840
136489328640
6 DECKSTOTAL
46473476400
81328583700
130125733920
185893905600
241662077280
2325997493820
3011481270720


PlayerDealer2120191817OtherTOTAL
heart AKno bj
104389120
182680960
292289536
417556480
542823424
5224675456
6764414976
suited bjno bj
1565836800
2740214400
4384343040
6263347200
8142351360
78370131840
101466224640
reg. bjno bj
5010677760
8768686080
14029897728
20042711040
26055524352
250784421888
324691918848
no bjno bj
133907336000
234337838000
374940540800
535629344000
696318147200
6702062166800
8677195372800
heart AKbj
5039360
8818880
14110208
20157440
26204672
252219968
326550528
suited bjbj
75590400
132283200
211653120
302361600
393070080
3783299520
4898257920
reg. bjbj
241889280
423306240
677289984
967557120
1257824256
12106558464
15674425344
no bjbj
6680903680
11691581440
18706530304
26723614720
34740699136
334379229184
432922558464
8 DECKSTOTAL
147591662400
258285409200
413256654720
590366649600
767476644480
7386962703120
9563939723520



The next table shows the probabilities based on the six-deck table above.


Player Dealer 21 20 19 18 17 Other TOTAL
heart AK no bj 0.000011 0.000019 0.000031 0.000044 0.000057 0.000547 0.000708
suited bj no bj 0.000164 0.000287 0.000459 0.000656 0.000852 0.008205 0.010623
reg. bj no bj 0.000525 0.000918 0.001469 0.002098 0.002728 0.026255 0.033992
no bj no bj 0.014 0.0245 0.039199 0.055999 0.072799 0.70069 0.907188
heart AK bj 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000002 0.000003 0.000026 0.000034
suited bj bj 0.000008 0.000014 0.000022 0.000031 0.000041 0.000392 0.000508
reg. bj bj 0.000025 0.000044 0.00007 0.0001 0.00013 0.001255 0.001625
no bj bj 0.000699 0.001224 0.001958 0.002798 0.003637 0.035006 0.045323
6 DECKS TOTAL 0.015432 0.027006 0.04321 0.061728 0.080247 0.772377 1


Next, here is what every event pays, based on the 10/15/15/25/30/50/100/1000 pay table.

Player Dealer 21 20 19 18 17 Other
heart AK no bj 1000 40 30 20 15 10
suited bj no bj 100 40 30 20 15 10
reg. bj no bj 50 40 30 20 15 10
no bj no bj -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
heart AK bj 1003 43 33 23 18 13
suited bj bj 103 43 33 23 18 13
reg. bj bj 53 43 33 23 18 13
no bj bj 3 3 3 3 3 3


And, finally the return from each event:

Player Dealer 21 20 19 18 17 Other TOTAL
heart AK no bj 0.010929 0.000765 0.000918 0.000874 0.000852 0.00547 0.019808
suited bj no bj 0.016393 0.011475 0.01377 0.013114 0.012786 0.082046 0.149585
reg. bj no bj 0.026229 0.03672 0.044064 0.041966 0.040917 0.262548 0.452443
no bj no bj -0.014 -0.0245 -0.039199 -0.055999 -0.072799 -0.70069 -0.907188
heart AK bj 0.000524 0.000039 0.000048 0.000048 0.000049 0.00034 0.001048
suited bj bj 0.000807 0.00059 0.000724 0.000721 0.000733 0.005099 0.008674
reg. bj bj 0.001329 0.001887 0.002317 0.002307 0.002347 0.016315 0.026502
no bj bj 0.002098 0.003672 0.005875 0.008393 0.010911 0.105019 0.135969
6 DECKS TOTAL 0.044309 0.030648 0.028517 0.011424 -0.004203 -0.223853 -0.113159


That agrees with my 11.32% posted on my Odds site.
Last edited by: Wizard on Oct 10, 2016
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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