I am now a counter
Quote: dwight56I posted a system . . . . . So I have now converted to a counter. The method I am using may not be the best but its not real hard. I am using the Speed Count (which I have practiced before but never used in Casino until today. I am not using a big spread only 1-4, and I can see where it might work in the long fun. my unit is 25. Playing double deck H17 DAS split aces split twice.
Have we gone any way towards converting you to someone who has figured out his bankroll requirements, has calculated his n0 and has factored in his risk of ruin?
At those stakes, am I right in assuming that you are comfortable putting $20,000 at very significant probability of rapid total loss?
You know that $1,000 is just the calm ebbing and flowing of the tide which can smash your bankroll into the rocks and wash it away any day now?
Glad to see that you at least now understand enough about the game to know why progressive and other betting systems will NEVER beat the game. Understanding that there's a house edge that's ever changing due to the effect of card removal is the true enlightening of any card counter. So congrats on making the progress to where you are!
That being said... Let's go over a few things starting with the Speed Count. This is more/less not deemed a real count worthwhile count by any serious counter (be it a weekend warrior or a seasoned pro). The edge you obtain from it is minimal, and to go along with your limited spread (and them I'm assuming bankroll) you're REALLY missing out on A LOT of bang for your buck.
Jumping to the speed count still shows signs of thinking true counting is too much work, but it's really not. In all honesty you can understand the math (calculate your N0, your advantage, your hourly win rate, etc), learn a much more powerful counting system (such as the Hi/Low), and learn a minimum of the Illustrious 18 deviations in really like a month or two, pending how much time/effort you put in to training.
As I stated in my A-Z articles and thread on this site, counting is simply marrying a bunch of SMALLER concepts together to form a winning game. If you break down what appears to you right now to be a mountain, you'll find each step is very minimal and in no time at all you're at the top... with a WINNING game!
I would strongly urge you to check out my A-Z articles.. and notice on the link with the tons and tons of different counting systems there are that Speed Count isn't even listed. A lot of people (yes myself included) don't really even count it as a counting system. If you're just playing for fun and having fun with it, then by all means do what you can with it... but if you want to make money, even $10/hour, then you're going to need to learn the real ropes of the game... There's just no way around it.
Here are the articles. Give them a read, then a re-read. Feel free to comment on them, post in the A-Z thread, message me, or post back in this thread with follow up questions!
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/
There's been some talk and discussion about the speed count that's posted on the WOO site. It's a great way for someone to try to play near break even with the house. Also, I love that you brought this up because this brings up other things most people looking to use a simplified count don't realize... Even if you use speed count, you STILL must learn bankroll management, RoR, proper bet sizing with your spread, etc. Right now it seems like you're grabbing numbers out of the air and making them your spread. Do you know what your RoR is? What is your whole bankroll? Are you using a theoretical bankroll? At what advantage are you placing your bets?
Without knowing/learning these other topics you're really just gambling still for the most part, regardless of the counting system you use!
Again, there is no way around the hard work it takes to be successful in this venture. The sad thing is most people put it off over and over then finally they do it (because it's what REALLY works) and then they're like "Wow, 1 month of learning for a skill I'll have the REST OF MY LIFE? Man, I wish I did this years ago!" It is such a small investment of your time to get a true understanding of the game and to learn a much more powerful count. Short cuts don't get you anywhere in life.
Even if you don't want to use Hi/Low (which I'd recommend) I still urge you to simply read through the 3 articles posted above... It will give you a much better understanding of the game and then you can make the decision that is best for you... Just know that if you can't PROVE you have a winning game (mathematically) then you probably don't have a winning game, and you're more than likely still just gambling.
Forget Sppeed count or OPP. Using them is a mental admission that you can't learn a normal system.
Quote: dwight56I have been fooling with a concept that I run into some time back and so far I believe for whatever reason it has worked pretty good, I was just wanting some opinions and if anyone can try it on a simulator for results I know this may sound crazy and goes against sacred BS but here it is, Only split or double down following a winning hand, after a loosing hand, you do not double or split anything.
So, you get a pair of aces against a 5. But you just had a losing hand. Why in Zod's name would you not split them? It would be insane.
Later you get 6,5 against a 5. Why the hell would you not double down.
Unless you can give a sensible and reasoned explanation of why this MIGHT be of any benefit, preferably supported by mathematics or just simple logic, I see no reason to calculate or simulate anything.
You might as well ask us to simulate playing Russian Roulette with 4 bullets instead of 1 because you've found that for whatever reason, it works pretty good for you.
Play basic strategy well and you may, on average, get 99.5% of your money back. If you want to get less of your money back, or get less games for your money, then play like a complete ***k.
Quote: dwight56I know it sounds insane, but think about it how many times have you been loosing and you catch what you think is a winning split or double hand only to get your ass knocked off
Why should I. Why would I want to selectively remember when a few remarkably bad things happened after I anticipated something good? Why should I try to remember that more than the times I thought I was about to get my arse kicked but lady luck shone down on me.
Why in fact should I base how I play on what I can remember about anything. It MIGHT be worth remembering that CRAZY things can happen, just as a reality check. Those crazy things might be hands where you have a high bet out and end up splitting to 5 hands and doubling 4 of those and then winning or losing ALL of those hands, more than you would typically win or lose in a week.*
Do the maths: Create a model of the game and strategy: Prepare a graphical representation of what sort of outcomes to expect: Watch that model for a few runs to ensure that I could stomach the roller coaster it would give me, then trust the strategy with appropriate bankroll. If a strategy can incredibly easily be seen to be flawed and pointless, waste no time on it at all.
Quote:I understand all splits and double have a mathematical advantage over the long term allbeit some better than others, plus not doubling and splitting every time can change the card flow, my question was simply are your odds the same after a a win and after a loss, you math pros tell me??
A win or a loss, here or there is of no consequence to what happens next. Some losses can coincide with the count getting favourable and some losses can coincide with the count getting unfavourable. Don't pay any attention to past wins or losses. ONLY pay attention to the count. ( And to other, more significant advantage plays )
* Yesterday I had a pair of aces. I split them. One of the split hands was dealt an ace. I split that. ONE OF THOSE WAS DEALT AN ACE. I split that too. 4 aces out, 4 hands in play. All with 4x my normal unit bet. Dealer bust. Do you think I care to remember or analyse what happened in the hand before that? Actually, I do. I was chasing a loss from a preceding streak of 3 losing hands!!!
Not impossible. But pretty pointless when the maths will show it to be flawed, even on the most cursory glance.Quote: dwight56Is this an impossible simulation just to answer the question?
Quote:I know that BS is suppose to give the best odds
There's no "supposed" about it! OK. Not BEST if extreme counts say to deviate.
Quote:but I really think it has cost me on some plays over the years,, splitting 8s vs 9 10 and Ace,,,splitting 6s vs 2 and 3, doubling 9 vs 3 and 10 vs 9, even a little shaky on 11 vs 10, I really think over the long haul these plays have cost me money
Those are borderline hands. You should have expected to have lost money on some of those. It just might have been a bigger amount lost if you hadn't.
Did somebody tell you that you always win more if you do a basic strategy double or split?
Because that is not so. Sometimes you double or split to try to lose less!!!
Quote: dwight56Is this an impossible simulation just to answer the question? I play BS to a tee, I am only doing this in practice for the hell of it, I know that BS is suppose to give the best odds, but I really think it has cost me on some plays over the years,, splitting 8s vs 9 10 and Ace,,,splitting 6s vs 2 and 3, doubling 9 vs 3 and 10 vs 9, even a little shaky on 11 vs 10, I really think over the long haul these plays have cost me money
You haven't seen the long haul yet.
Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: dwight56I really think over the long haul these plays have cost me money
You haven't seen the long haul yet.
+1
Or stuck up your butt.Quote: billryanHard to see the forest with your head planted in a tree.
I re-read the last page or two of this thread this morning 'cause I'm sober now.
Still doesn't make a lick of sense.
Quote: dwight56Ok sorry I raised a stink with a stupid question, the online BJ I practice with tracks w/l with 5000 hands played splits won were 42% doubles won was 52% hands won 44% hands lost 48% pushes 8%. Maybe this is not what actually happens in real BJ. Like I have stated earlier I have used different progression systems in trials most are no good some are not bad, when playing at the casinos there are good days and bad ( I have had more good than bad). I have as stated used counting systems as well, to which you guys said were not good systems either, you seem to all believe in Hi Lo, which I am sure works if you want to work at a game and hope to make 10-20 an hour over the LONG HAUL, I simply prefer to bet more on the streaks and less on the bad streaks, face it that cut card can kill your count because you have no clue what is in those cards. You can analyze it till your blue in the face but you will never know whats left in those cards face it you are still gambling. And as for calling me a bad player if that is you opinion your entitled to it. But when I come in here and ask simple questions instead of getting an answer I get insults I suppose I am in the wrong place, I guess everyone in here is a card counter and believe there is NO other way to make a dime at this game, well good luck to all.
You got answers. You even got the correct answers. You just didn't get the answers you were looking for. Changing strategy after a loss or even after a win is no different than changing it because the dealer is wearing a lapel pin or not, or if he is clean shaven or not.
Whenever I think I have discovered a new foolproof system or even one that gives me an edge, I pause a moment, think of my background, compare it to the millions of mathematicians that have studied the game and realize that if it worked, someone else would have found it. I reflect another moment on what could have been and get back to grinding away.
Quote: CasinoKillerlolololololool
I read that as Laugh out loud, out loud, out loud, out loud, out loud, out out loud.
Too many outs.
Off with his head.... (Various forms of compensation by said casinos to this author and/or other interested/disinterested parties should be ignored by the readers).
As a side note: you cannot surrender the same hand twice and halve your losses.
Quote: darkozYesterday i hit with a soft 21 because it was the correct move.
Hmmmm. still trying to get my head around that.
Barring the possibility that you were being facetious, this is when I think that could be true.-
You are playing two hands. The first is soft21 and the second is a mid card like 6 and you catch a glimpse of the next card because the dealer assumes you want it to go on your second hand, but you discover it's a ten and you protest " Hey I never waved you on or signalled my intent to stand on that first hand" Pit then rules that the ten should go where you Now signal that it was to go ( back up and replay happens in UK rules )
Am I close? When else would you hit soft 21?
Quote: dwight56Ok sorry I raised a stink with a stupid question, the online BJ I practice with tracks w/l with 5000 hands played splits won were 42% doubles won was 52% hands won 44% hands lost 48% pushes 8%. Maybe this is not what actually happens in real BJ. Like I have stated earlier I have used different progression systems in trials most are no good some are not bad, when playing at the casinos there are good days and bad ( I have had more good than bad). I have as stated used counting systems as well, to which you guys said were not good systems either, you seem to all believe in Hi Lo, which I am sure works if you want to work at a game and hope to make 10-20 an hour over the LONG HAUL, I simply prefer to bet more on the streaks and less on the bad streaks, face it that cut card can kill your count because you have no clue what is in those cards. You can analyze it till your blue in the face but you will never know whats left in those cards face it you are still gambling. And as for calling me a bad player if that is you opinion your entitled to it. But when I come in here and ask simple questions instead of getting an answer I get insults I suppose I am in the wrong place, I guess everyone in here is a card counter and believe there is NO other way to make a dime at this game, well good luck to all.
Dwight. Don't take hostility towards your systems as a personal sleight. You asked for analysis of a few system variants over your many threads and that is exactly what you have received. We don't wish to encourage players to waste either money or time trying to invent the same square wheel.
I've said many times that 'systems' even Martingale, can add great fun to the game. Unlike many here I put great value in fun even at the expense of losing or risking real cash. So I don't deride you if you want to use some sort of progressive money management while playing Basic Strategy. I do that myself, quite often and, so far, quite luckily for me, it's been profitable ( much to the chagrin of some purists.)
But I for one WILL crank up the bluntness and even derision if I find myself being invited to analyse a system which is spitting in the face of common sense. That's what your 'don't split or double' system was doing.
Now a question or two for you.....
You say you've used trial 'play money' games to practice counting on. Which ones? where? Most of the online ones I see will shuffle after each hand, so are not open to counting?
Also, you say you have played real money games. Have you REALLY devoted much effort to card counting in real games? I get the impression that you have not yet seriously done so in earnest.
Oh, and ...
Quote:you have no clue what is in those cards. You can analyze it till your blue in the face but you will never know whats left in those cards
That is just simply factually incorrect.
We cannot know PRECISELY what is there just as we cannot know PRECISELY whether we will win or lose the next hand. That's the nature of probability theories. Counters aspire to stake more on games where they have probability of profit. That probability is FACT based. Calculated probabilities are ACTUAL FACTs and KNOWLEDGE even if the outcome is uncertain and unknown.
It's called gambling with an edge. It's what counters do.
Quote: OnceDearHmmmm. still trying to get my head around that.
Barring the possibility that you were being facetious, this is when I think that could be true.-
You are playing two hands. The first is soft21 and the second is a mid card like 6 and you catch a glimpse of the next card because the dealer assumes you want it to go on your second hand, but you discover it's a ten and you protest " Hey I never waved you on or signalled my intent to stand on that first hand" Pit then rules that the ten should go where you Now signal that it was to go ( back up and replay happens in UK rules )
Am I close? When else would you hit soft 21?
7 card unbusted hand is an automatic winner is one possibility.
I thought of something like that. but so was the initial 21.... well.... hmmmm. yes the soft 21 could have been a push and if the game has 7 card 21 beating a dealer 21, that would be another example.Quote: Hunterhill7 card unbusted hand is an automatic winner is one possibility.
Maybe also some sort of promotion or side bet?
Weird rules, though.
Quote: billryanHow could the soft 21 be a push if he was able to hit it?
He meant you could end up pushing with a 21.
But if the rules of the game were that 7 card 21 is an automatic winner you would hit soft 21 so you couldn't end up pushing.
Quote: billryanHow could the soft 21 be a push if he was able to hit it?
Ok. here's the rule variant we are considering. A seven card non busting hand wins and beats a dealer 21.
Player has six card soft 21, (say A,2,A,3,A,3) that might find itself up against dealer 21 ( say 6,7,8 ) and the game would be a push.
So, the player takes a seventh card. He cannot bust, so cannot lose. He has a 7 card non-busting hand so it is not a push, but it is a WIN.
Guaranteed win is better than a 21 which might become a push.
Now, I've never seen those rules, but I've heard of similar variants in promotions.
This was video bj but the rules u mentioned with 7 cards is same - a seven card charlie
Quote: OnceDearDwight. Don't take hostility towards your systems as a personal sleight. You asked for analysis of a few system variants over your many threads and that is exactly what you have received. We don't wish to encourage players to waste either money or time trying to invent the same square wheel.
I've said many times that 'systems' even Martingale, can add great fun to the game. Unlike many here I put great value in fun even at the expense of losing or risking real cash. So I don't deride you if you want to use some sort of progressive money management while playing Basic Strategy. I do that myself, quite often and, so far, quite luckily for me, it's been profitable ( much to the chagrin of some purists.)
But I for one WILL crank up the bluntness and even derision if I find myself being invited to analyse a system which is spitting in the face of common sense. That's what your 'don't split or double' system was doing.
Now a question or two for you.....
You say you've used trial 'play money' games to practice counting on. Which ones? where? Most of the online ones I see will shuffle after each hand, so are not open to counting?
Also, you say you have played real money games. Have you REALLY devoted much effort to card counting in real games? I get the impression that you have not yet seriously done so in earnest.
Oh, and ...
That is just simply factually incorrect.
We cannot know PRECISELY what is there just as we cannot know PRECISELY whether we will win or lose the next hand. That's the nature of probability theories. Counters aspire to stake more on games where they have probability of profit. That probability is FACT based. Calculated probabilities are ACTUAL FACTs and KNOWLEDGE even if the outcome is uncertain and unknown.
It's called gambling with an edge. It's what counters do.
Did you have a problem with an edit to that post? You just seemed to quote me without comment.Quote: dwight56Quote: OnceDear
Quote: dwight56O and by the way just as you admit you can not know precisely what is in the cut or if you will win or loose, I cannot know when a good run will happen but they almost allways do, which you should know if you have played lots of BJ, thanks for your responce
This is where I have a problem.
A card counter can and will have some indication of when it is a good time to wager, or not wager, or wager more. That indication is based on mathematical evidence. It might not be a black and white stop/go signal, but it will be a scientifically derived one.
On the other hand you offer no evidence that your choice to bet more is based on anything more than 'well it worked pretty good for me so far' and now 'a good run will happen... which you should know if you have played lots of BJ'
You try to tell us that because we have experienced streaks, there must be some way to predict where and when they may happen. That could only be by gut instinct.
Counters and mathematically inclined players have generally learned to accept that gut feeling has only an illusionary value in predicting the future. You don't yet seem to have accepted that fact. Being ahead financially has a habit of leading one astray. You have been led astary by what is an extremely small sample size and a lot of trusting your gut.
Stop trying to reinvent the square wheel.
Play for fun in any way that floats your boat. No need to look for justification here. You won't find supporting evidence to endorse your systems.
Quote: dwight56There are counters and there are progression players and strong arguments for both
Please direct us to the strong argument for progressive players.
Then again. don't. there are no such arguments.
Last week a friend and I played blackjack on SeaScape, a casino cruise ship that departs from Fort Lauderdale on a daily basis. Steve Bourie, the author of the annually published American Casino Guide, is a recreational blackjack player and a staunch advocate of card counting. I'm a progressive bettor and use a system that I've attempted to perfect during the last five years of my 30 years of playing this game.
Edit: rest of article removed for copyright violations. Please post a link, dwight. -Babs
Quote: dwight56By Walter Thomason
Last week a friend and I played blackjack on SeaScape, a casino cruise ship that departs from Fort Lauderdale on a daily basis. Steve Bourie, the author of the annually published American Casino Guide, is a recreational blackjack player and a staunch advocate of card counting. I'm a progressive bettor and use a system that I've attempted to perfect during the last five years of my 30 years of playing this game.
Edit: rest of article removed for copyright violations. Please post a link, dwight. -Babs
Walter Thomason,that's really all I needed to see.
Don't waste your money following his advice.
Quote: dwight56By Walter Thomason
Last week a friend and I played blackjack on SeaScape,
Edit: rest of article removed for copyright violations. Please post a link, dwight. -Babs
Walter wrote a book. It contained some Pretty narrative and promoted his own positive progression system.
Some who followed his system were winners and some were losers. There was never any strong argument that his system was of any value except maybe that it helped him profit from his book sales. I've seen forum discussions between Walter T and two prominent members here Telliot and QFit. Those two have also written extensively on the subject of counting and progressive systems. Those two respected authors simulated and mathematically tested the system and found no value in it.
Writing a flowery narrative book that promotes a self written system does not constitute a strong argument for believing in that system.
But Dwight, go your own way. Follow your own guru. Good luck.
Quote: dwight56I am not following his system just posted his argument I play my own system which has worked fine
Guy jumps off the Empire State Building. As he passes the 70th floor, his phone rings. He answers by the 50th floor,and passing the 12th floor tells his friend everything is working out just fine. So far.
Then what's the question?Quote: dwight56I am not following his system just posted his argument I play my own system which has worked fine
Quote: dwight56Ok sorry I raised a stink with a stupid question, the online BJ I practice with tracks w/l with 5000 hands played splits won were 42% doubles won was 52% hands won 44% hands lost 48% pushes 8%. Maybe this is not what actually happens in real BJ. Like I have stated earlier I have used different progression systems in trials most are no good some are not bad, when playing at the casinos there are good days and bad ( I have had more good than bad). I have as stated used counting systems as well, to which you guys said were not good systems either, you seem to all believe in Hi Lo, which I am sure works if you want to work at a game and hope to make 10-20 an hour over the LONG HAUL, I simply prefer to bet more on the streaks and less on the bad streaks, face it that cut card can kill your count because you have no clue what is in those cards. You can analyze it till your blue in the face but you will never know whats left in those cards face it you are still gambling. And as for calling me a bad player if that is you opinion your entitled to it. But when I come in here and ask simple questions instead of getting an answer I get insults I suppose I am in the wrong place, I guess everyone in here is a card counter and believe there is NO other way to make a dime at this game, well good luck to all.
Okay,...
Even I have to say wow, just wow.
Don't take it personally. Have thick skin.
Most of the guys giving you advice here do this for a living.
