misunderstanding expected return vs dealer bust odds

At the wizard of odds ap. 1 it says the expexted value for standing on 16 vs dealer 10 is -.5404. How does this translate to the odds of winning such a hand doin that action. Does it mean you will win 46% of the time? Shouldnt it be around -.76 because that is the odds of dealer making a hand? Thank you for any help u can give me!!

Quote: patontheback

At the wizard of odds ap. 1 it says the expexted value for standing on 16 vs dealer 10 is -.5404. How does this translate to the odds of winning such a hand doin that action. Does it mean you will win 46% of the time? Shouldnt it be around -.76 because that is the odds of dealer making a hand? Thank you for any help u can give me!!

That would be the case if you never won, and only pushed when you had a winning hand. You have to factor the increase in one unit when you do beat the odds.

To use approximate odds:

~77% of the time you LOSE 1 unit
~23% of the time you WIN 1 unit

(.77)(-1) + (.23)(1) = -.54