jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
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August 25th, 2015 at 5:26:58 PM permalink
Scenario: If someone at the table attracts a lot of attention with reckless bets. I can safely assume that surveillance has began. If I play next to him with a 1-4 spread. What is the chance that I will be backed off?
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
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August 25th, 2015 at 5:39:26 PM permalink
I forgot to mention I usually play $25-100. I never play $100 min. Maybe a $50 min.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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August 25th, 2015 at 6:40:15 PM permalink
98.01% chance you'll get backed off.
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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August 25th, 2015 at 6:48:49 PM permalink
Quote: RS

98.01% chance you'll get backed off.



I came up with 97.86% chance of a back off. The surveillance person blinked a couple more times in my simulation, than yours, I guess.
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
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August 25th, 2015 at 7:21:04 PM permalink
Okay, I thought they'd let me play with almost break even odds. Guess not. They want every seat filled with donors.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
Avincow
Avincow
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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August 25th, 2015 at 9:26:26 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Okay, I thought they'd let me play with almost break even odds. Guess not. They want every seat filled with donors.



they are not going to analyze how much your EV is. If you're counting, you're out.

why are you playing at that table, play at a different table while everyone is distracted.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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August 25th, 2015 at 10:07:38 PM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Okay, I thought they'd let me play with almost break even odds. Guess not. They want every seat filled with donors.



The issue is that if you're playing alongside a counter who's under active surveillance theyll notice your bets rising and falling in unison with his/hers, where if you played at a different table you'd most likely be fine. I smell a 7/5 BP reference somewhere in the thread though.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 25th, 2015 at 11:16:53 PM permalink
Worse thing you can do as a card counter is play at a table with another counter. Raising and lowering bets in unison is stunningly easy to see. Even if using different counts and spread, 90% will be in unison. You will likely be 'linked' to this player, and if that particular casino reports to any of the network data bases you will be listed as a teammate, inheriting all his/her 'sins' when you don't even know the person.

Now the OP didn't say the other player was counting or moving money with the count. He said attracting attention with "reckless bets". That's just as bad. Surveillance will likely run a skill check on this person and decide he is no threat, but will pick you off in the process. Again, nothing good can come from playing at a table that is drawing attention, for whatever reason.

Now there is some benefit from "playing in the shadows" of bigger bettors and that includes card counters, if they are not at your table, but at the next table or across the pit. Surveillance (and pit) will be more focused on the other player and situation and your play goes unnoticed. This is one of the benefits of playing big event (fight nights) or holiday weekends. Of course there are draw backs to playing in on big event or holiday weekend nights, like crowded conditions and slow play.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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August 25th, 2015 at 11:38:44 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I smell a 7/5 BP reference somewhere in the thread though.



Yeah, maxpen missed it...lol He should have said 97.87% in his response instead, imo. And I sadly know way too many of these numbers. I am pretty sure I know more than the Wiz does offhand.
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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August 26th, 2015 at 8:04:14 AM permalink
Quote: jjjoooggg

Scenario: If someone at the table attracts a lot of attention with reckless bets. I can safely assume that surveillance has began. If I play next to him with a 1-4 spread. What is the chance that I will be backed off?



How many decks?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi

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