noob question about hi/lo counting

Here is the thing I don't understand...so the theory is count the cards and true count of +2 basically says bet more!

What I don't understand is why does the dealer not have the SAME EXACT advantage you as the player have when the count is high. I get the chances are greatly increased for you to hit 10's...but doesn't the same apply to the dealer who is pulling from the same set of cards?

I just don't get it?

If the count was something crazy like +8...chances are you both have 20 and it's a push?

It's true the dealer is just as likely to get Blackjack in positive and high counts as the player but Blackjack gets paid 3:2 for the player while player would only lose 1:1 when the dealer gets Blackjack. Player may find more quality split and double down oppirtunities as well in these positive counts but keep in mind that a high positive count does not guaruntee that the player will win; but chances of dealer and player pushes increase. The edge in card counting is razor thin. A lot of good posts on this board. Romes' post comes to mind as a primer.

Ok fair response. I just didnt know if I was missing something. I'm headed to vegas in September and I thought about practicing my card counting, but I also want to have fun. I've not yet convinced myself it's worth the effort to count for that small edge you get. I mean .2% is really NOTHING when it comes down to it...not for someone who gambles on occassion 4 or 5 times a year. I'm sure I'm gonna get crucified for saying that but...

One reason why I got into card counting was irrespective of how many or how few times I set foot in a casino each year, I would rather be a sure winner (over the long term) rather than a sure loser when it comes to a casino game that I enjoy playing. When I read a statement from someone who said something like "basic strategy players are just long-term losers" it really made me think. HiLo is best of the simple systems but if you want to put in less effort depending in how casual Blackjack is for you, you can use an easier Unbalanced Count without sacrificing too much. I'm referring to the KO count or the Red7 count which I use personally.

So the advantage to ko or red 7 is there is no need to divide the deck count to get true count right?

Yes, the advantage with an unbalanced count like REKO, KO, or Red7 is that you don't have to do deck estimation and RC to TC conversion.

However, these counts are slightly less effective for certain plays.

I'm not sure what the suggested point to wong out (or in) would be with an unbalanced count. You should consider this play, it's highly effective.

Quote: v14

Here is the thing I don't understand...so the theory is count the cards and true count of +2 basically says bet more!

What I don't understand is why does the dealer not have the SAME EXACT advantage you as the player have when the count is high. I get the chances are greatly increased for you to hit 10's...but doesn't the same apply to the dealer who is pulling from the same set of cards?

I just don't get it?

If the count was something crazy like +8...chances are you both have 20 and it's a push?

Hey v14, and welcome to the forums! Wino gave you the right answer, but to re-iterate I pulled these from my article posted in the articles section (A-Z Counting Cards in Blackjack, article 1):

1) You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, the dealer does not.
2) You can put more money on the table by splitting your pairs, the dealer cannot.
3) You can put more money on the table by doubling down, the dealer cannot.
4) The dealer will bust more often.

Splits and doubles are already advantageous to the player because most of the time they're to a poor dealers card. This is why #4 ties in to them to strengthen their resolve.

Quote: v14

...I'm headed to vegas in September and I thought about practicing my card counting, but I also want to have fun. I've not yet convinced myself it's worth the effort to count for that small edge you get. I mean .2% is really NOTHING when it comes down to it...not for someone who gambles on occassion 4 or 5 times a year. I'm sure I'm gonna get crucified for saying that but...

Card counting alone yields about a 1-2% (not .1-.2) advantage. This is also over the long haul, so that means you'll have winning and losing trips alike. Again, this is detailed out in my articles I'll encourage you to read/understand.

If you're having a trip in about a month (or even 2) you would have to dedicate some good time to ensure you're counting properly and 'know' you have a winning game. You'd need at least an hour or two a night to go through all the steps, in my opinion.

Quote: v14

So the advantage to ko or red 7 is there is no need to divide the deck count to get true count right?

As stated in my article, for a first time counter, I would recommend Hi/Low. It's the most bang for your buck. You might not want to do the TC conversions (that become very easy with some practice) but these other counts either aren't as efficient, or are more efficient but complex to the point you'll certainly make more player mistakes, which will cost you more money in the long run than these other systems are worth. Especially if you're trying to learn the basics in the next month or two, I would definitely recommend Hi/Low. Also, most other counters use hi/low as well, so it might be tough to get some specific questions about these other systems answered.

If you play once a year, or 100 times a year is kind of a moot point. It comes down to the mentality of the player. If you want to practice and use your brain to know in the long run over the years you're a winner, then it's more about doing it right than the money aspect. It's this Advantage Player "AP" mentality that leads us to get the most out of everything we do in life, and in blackjack, one of the ways to get the most is by counting cards (never mind hole carding, shuffle tracking, ace-sequencing, edge sorting, etc). You'll get out what you put in. If you really want to learn to count, and to be profitable doing it, then I'd again recommend you to start with my 3 articles that are "A to Z" on the subject =).

Wow. Thanks for the huge response Romes. Doesn't sound like I'll the time to really good at counting before my vegas trip but that's ok I'll be ready for the one after that. ;)

I read through that A to Z. I have one question about penetration. I'm a little confused because if I remember correctly doesn't the dealer let a player place the cut card? Is that essentially saying if I ever get the opportunity to place the cut card to place it as far towards the bottom of the deck as I can? I dont' really understand how the casino/dealer controls the cut card?

Quote: v14

I'm a little confused because if I remember correctly doesn't the dealer let a player place the cut card? Is that essentially saying if I ever get the opportunity to place the cut card to place it as far towards the bottom of the deck as I can? I dont' really understand how the casino/dealer controls the cut card?

Hi, v14, welcome to the forum.

So, in blackjack games that use a cut card, there are two "cuts" that take place: The first is where the dealer lets a player insert the cut card into the deck(s), and then the dealer takes the cards in front of the cut card and moves them to the back. Then the second is where the dealer inserts the cut card into the deck to signify when she has reached the last round.

This second cut determines penetration. The first does not.

Quote: v14

Here is the thing I don't understand...so the theory is count the cards and true count of +2 basically says bet more!

What I don't understand is why does the dealer not have the SAME EXACT advantage you as the player have when the count is high. I get the chances are greatly increased for you to hit 10's...but doesn't the same apply to the dealer who is pulling from the same set of cards?

I just don't get it?

If the count was something crazy like +8...chances are you both have 20 and it's a push?

I think Romes might have said more or less the same thing. But counting theoretically yeilds 1-2% advantage not .2%. So in the long run you have an edge and should win. But as a famous economist said (Keynes I think) "the long run is the period during which we are all dead"

Seriously though. Yes counting makes the game a little "harder" to play. You have to pay more attention obviously but it really isn't that hard. I'd stick to a hi-lo count if you are only doing it 5 times a year. There are lots of other counts out there. But hi-lo is so simple to use, I find it works best, especially for a recreational counter which I still am. Some other things to consider.

1. Bet spread/ramp....dont go from 1 unit to 10 units the first time you get a +2 tc. It's just too obvious. It also increases your variance and ROR. There's a member on here kewlj who speaks very intelligently on bet spread/ramp if you are interested. Just search for his threads.

2. The most important thing, for any player is to, FIND A GOOD GAME. As you pointed out yourself, why go to all that trouble to card count if you are are playing a game with bad rules or penetration. So shop around for the best rules and fewest decks, and a dealer with a pace you can handle and who cuts it deep. Any small edge you get by counting will be wiped out by a table that pays 6:5 for example.

3. Have a good time and relax. If it's too much like work for you. Don't count. You said yourself you only gamble 5 or 6 times a year. So it's not the end of the world. If you lose the count don't beat yourself up...flat bet the rest of the shoe. Or better yet...go get a drink clear your head, use the bathroom...whatever.

Good Luck.

CallSaul - Thanks for the response. So basically when "shopping tables" look for a dealer that is placing the 2nd card around 60% below the top? I hate to generalize with you experts but it's only how far I am right now after my small bit of reading. :)

Vendman - To your first point...there's no way I'd go from 1 unit to 10 units...I don't have the balls. That would be betting $5 table minimums and then jumping to $50? I wouldn't have the confidence probably in my count yet to jump like that. $50 a hand is big money for me.

To your second point and kind of related to my first I don't see myself going to a table that's much higher than a $10 minimum which means I almost have to play at one of the station casinos (loved Red Rock and Green Valley Ranch last time I went anyway) and/or somewhere downtown to get any sort of decent rules. But to be fair I have no idea on things like penetration etc. Only the general rules of the tables at those places but i'm trying to get some of that research done before hand at least.

Thanks for your 3rd comment. I practiced today for about 2 hours and I have a long way to go. I'm just under a minute a deck right now but I do feel like i'm getting faster already. Not sure if I'll be remotely close by mid Sept but that's alright there will be other times to approach the "fun counter" status.

From the counts being discussed am I correct in assuming that you are playing shoe games? I'm very fussy about game selection and have walked out of many casinos without playing. With good rules at a six deck game I wouldn't play with less than 75% penetration. That means seeing 75% of the cards before the shuffle, in this case 224 cards. I would only play positive counts. I told you I was fussy.

Do you know basic strategy stone cold for the games you are going to play? I always get a resounding yes to that question. It usually takes me a couple of seconds and a couple of questions to change that to a resounding no. Very rare is the player who knows basic strategy and that includes "very good", very experienced players. Basic strategy. That's where you start. Take all the time you need.

I think most of the off strip casinos in vegas have double deck which is where I'm going to try to play.

No, I would say that I do not have the basic strategy fully down yet for all scenarios. I'm simply trying to memorize hit on soft 17, no surrender, double deck right now. But from what I also understand...I can pull out the basic strategy and literally hold it on my hand for the more rare split plays etc. no?

Quote: v14

So basically when "shopping tables" look for a dealer that is placing the 2nd card around 60% below the top?

From your other posts, it looks like you're mostly playing DD games. There are a lot of DD games that don't use a cut card at all. So, when shopping tables, you'll want to look at the discard tray to see how many cards get dealt before a shuffle.

For DD games (and shoe games, of course) that use a cut card, yes, you'll want to pay attention to where the dealer places it. Deeper is better.

Quote: CallSaul

...For DD games (and shoe games, of course) that use a cut card, yes, you'll want to pay attention to where the dealer places it. Deeper is better.

The easiest way to do this is to just count how many cards are dealt, including all burn cards, until the cut card comes out.

Quote: v14

I think most of the off strip casinos in vegas have double deck which is where I'm going to try to play.

No, I would say that I do not have the basic strategy fully down yet for all scenarios. I'm simply trying to memorize hit on soft 17, no surrender, double deck right now. But from what I also understand...I can pull out the basic strategy and literally hold it on my hand for the more rare split plays etc. no?

Most casinos allow the use of a basic strategy chart although some may ask that you not keep it on the table. Feel free to use yours. Some pit bosses carry them and will advise the player upon request. Please don't do that as it slows down the game.

Penetration is very important on double deck games as are the rules. I like 65% or better. You mentioned 60% and that's not too bad. The deeper the pen the higher the advantage you will have. I prefer heads up play or one other player. That's three hands per round counting the dealer.

Quote: 1BB

Most casinos allow the use of a basic strategy chart although some may ask that you not keep it on the table. Feel free to use yours. Some pit bosses carry them and will advise the player upon request. Please don't do that as it slows down the game.

Penetration is very important on double deck games as are the rules. I like 65% or better. You mentioned 60% and that's not too bad. The deeper the pen the higher the advantage you will have. I prefer heads up play or one other player. That's three hands per round counting the dealer.

Wait...are you saying with a 6 deck shoe you're able to visually tell the difference between 60% and 65%? I mean isn't deck penetration always going to be a ROUGH guess?

Quote: 1BB

With good rules at a six deck game I wouldn't play with less than 75% penetration. That means seeing 75% of the cards before the shuffle, in this case 224 cards. I would only play positive counts. I told you I was fussy.

Actually 75% of 6 decks is 234 cards not 224. Probably just a math or typo mistake and hopefully not the number you are using if you actually count down the cards to the shuffle point.

I ordinarily wouldn't 'nit pick' like this as I hate it when others do so to me, but this is a fairly significant difference. Like you, 75% percent penetration is about the minimum I will play on a 'standard' 6 deck game. 234 cards is 75%. 224 cards deal is not 75%. It is less than 72% and probably would be the difference in me playing and not playing unless there was something else that made that particular game attractive to me.

Quote: v14

Wait...are you saying with a 6 deck shoe you're able to visually tell the difference between 60% and 65%? I mean isn't deck penetration always going to be a ROUGH guess?

I'm saying that I can tell the difference with 2 decks. It should never be a rough guess.

Quote: vendman1

1. Bet spread/ramp....dont go from 1 unit to 10 units the first time you get a +2 tc. It's just too obvious. It also increases your variance and ROR. There's a member on here kewlj who speaks very intelligently on bet spread/ramp if you are interested. Just search for his threads.

Thank you for those kind words, vendman1. I am glad you mentioned the "/ramp" along with spread, because I really believe this is one of the bigger error areas that new players are running into. If you read a book like Wong's professional blackjack, or not to single out Wong, but almost any book from the 80's/90's are, they will have you ramping up slowly, usually by that minimum wager that you are placing. Something like $5, $10 @ TC +2, $15 @ TC +3, $20 @ TC +4, $25 @ TC +5, ect up to $50 @ TC +10.

While the general mathematics of all these 80's/90's books are still quite valid, the ramps are not. In 2015, with crappier games and conditions, a player needs to ramp up quicker to overcome a higher house edge and all those additional negative and neutral count rounds. In a shoe game, I believe your max bet needs to be out by TC +4 or TC +5 at the latest. Waiting any longer than that and those TC's occur too infrequently to help you all that much. So to be effective a player might play the same $5-$50 spread, but ramp up much quicker, getting his top wagers out by TC +4 or +5 instead of TC +10 that those 80's/90's books suggest.

If you are not willing to ramp up quicker, then you must get out of at least some of those negative counts, mainly the worse of them. You just can't play all and ramp up slowly and get a reasonable edge any more. Strongest approach is to ramp up quickly AND get out of the worst of the negative counts. :)

Quote: kewlj

Actually 75% of 6 decks is 234 cards not 224. Probably just a math or typo mistake and hopefully not the number you are using if you actually count down the cards to the shuffle point.

I ordinarily wouldn't 'nit pick' like this as I hate it when others do so to me, but this is a fairly significant difference. Like you, 75% percent penetration is about the minimum I will play on a 'standard' 6 deck game. 234 cards is 75%. 224 cards deal is not 75%. It is less than 72% and probably would be the difference in me playing and not playing unless there was something else that made that particular game attractive to me.

Of course you are right and my face is a couple of shades of red right now. It was indeed a slip of the finger while typing too quickly. Can I blame it on the new site? :-)

Quote: 1BB

I'm saying that I can tell the difference with 2 decks. It should never be a rough guess.

I don't get it. I don't know how any person can say they are 100% at being able to tell the difference between a 60% and 65% cut visually? There's no math here...to determine this...what am I missing?

Quote: v14

I don't get it. I don't know how any person can say they are 100% at being able to tell the difference between a 60% and 65% cut visually? There's no math here...to determine this...what am I missing?

It's visualizing. For 75%, I start by looking at the complete stack of cards as the dealer is shuffling. I then mentally break that stack in half and then do so again. That is 25% and I have that visual in my mind. I can then compare the amount the dealer cuts to that 25% visual, and come up with a pretty close estimate of just how much above or below the 25% he/she is cutting.

The advantage to doing this visual for each circumstance is that card thickness and things like humidity that make the cards thicker doesn't come into play. At one store using thicker cards a 6 deck stack might be 5", and half of a half (25%) would be 1.25". I can then go to the casino right next door that is using thinner cards and the same 6 deck stack will be 4", meaning half of a half would be 1". So it isn't like you get 'trapped' into a false reading because of being used to certain cards. Each read is different.

Quote: 1BB

Of course you are right and my face is a couple of shades of red right now. It was indeed a slip of the finger while typing too quickly. Can I blame it on the new site? :-)

Oh wow, is THAT the issue with your face? I figured it was just high blood pressure. :/ (just kidding, I hope you don't have high BP).

No need for any shades of red. I figured and it just seemed like a typing or even math slip and is no big deal unless as I said, someone was actually counting down by that number.

BUT, if it makes you feel better, hell yeah, blame it on the site changes. I, myself have a few things I would like to blame on site changes, like a couple pounds weight gain. :)

Quote: v14

I don't get it. I don't know how any person can say they are 100% at being able to tell the difference between a 60% and 65% cut visually? There's no math here...to determine this...what am I missing?

As Ibeatyouraces pointed out, just count how many cards are dealt in the double deck game. After a couple of times you are good to go.

Quote: 1BB

As Ibeatyouraces pointed out, just count how many cards are dealt in the double deck game. After a couple of times you are good to go.

And the assumption to be made here is most dealers will cut in relatively the same spot from shuffle to shuffle?

The more you all talk...the more intimidating this gets. The fact you all can visually see a 5% difference to me is mind blowing.

Quote: v14

And the assumption to be made here is most dealers will cut in relatively the same spot from shuffle to shuffle?

The more you all talk...the more intimidating this gets. The fact you all can visually see a 5% difference to me is mind blowing.

With two decks the different dealers will be close to each other with their cuts. After establishing a baseline, yes, you can see the difference. Now if the cards are 24 hours old and get changed, I would establish a new baseline by counting the new cards. After doing this for a while you'd be surprised how accurate you will be no matter the amount of decks in use.