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tokearoo
tokearoo
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May 3rd, 2015 at 9:21:33 AM permalink
I was recently victim of this dealer hand . I stayed with hard 18, dealer showing a 2. Dealer's hand ended up
2,2,2,2,3,A,A,A,2,4 for 20. Anyone know the odds of pulling a 10 card 20?
odiousgambit
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May 3rd, 2015 at 9:27:43 AM permalink
can't do the math but do know two things:

*I have observed that "only the dealer can do that" ... i.e. can draw that many cards and not bust. To a creepy degree [but I admit it must be selective memory]

*I would sure stay with that shoe and increase my bet too, unless it was CSM and maybe even then
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Donuts
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May 3rd, 2015 at 10:18:59 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


*I would sure stay with that shoe and increase my bet too, unless it was CSM and maybe even then



What? Why? You just saw 3 aces come out.
Gabes22
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May 3rd, 2015 at 10:41:54 AM permalink
Quote: Donuts

What? Why? You just saw 3 aces come out.


He also saw 7 small cards come out as well, and no 10s.
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mustangsally
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May 3rd, 2015 at 11:22:54 AM permalink
Quote: tokearoo

I was recently victim of this dealer hand . I stayed with hard 18, dealer showing a 2. Dealer's hand ended up
2,2,2,2,3,A,A,A,2,4 for 20. Anyone know the odds of pulling a 10 card 20?

more info required
to
calculate
exactly
or
estimate
with
a
small
error


likes...
how many decks
csm?
where in the shoe did this occur
and on and on

for example
playing single deck BJ
the prob of the dealer pulling this hand = 0

sure, some say I "have a Smat_ss and Know-It-All approach"
hehe

next in line
Sally
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TwoFeathersATL
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May 3rd, 2015 at 11:30:40 AM permalink
5 twos in a single deck dealer hand, wouldn't surprise me if it happened to me. Otherwise highly unlikely...
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Wizard
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May 3rd, 2015 at 3:14:14 PM permalink
How many decks? Did the dealer hit or stand on soft 17?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
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May 3rd, 2015 at 3:30:59 PM permalink
Quote: tokearoo

Anyone know the odds of pulling a 10 card 20?


For 2 decks, H17, it's 3721057588-to-1.
For 6 decks, H17, it's 861604314-to-1.
For 8 decks, H17, it's 740079857-to-1.
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gordonm888
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May 3rd, 2015 at 4:34:30 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

For 2 decks, H17, it's 3721057588-to-1.
For 6 decks, H17, it's 861604314-to-1.
For 8 decks, H17, it's 740079857-to-1.



I think for one deck, stand on soft17, it is 160,751,859,009 to 1 That's 160 billion to one.

The first 5 cards must be 2-2-2-2-3 in any order, followed by A-A-A-A followed by 5, or,

2-2-2-2-4 in any order, followed by A-A-A-A followed by 4, or,

2-2-2-3-3 in any order, followed by A-A-A-A followed by 4.

For one deck, hit on soft 17, I don't see any additional combinations to make a 10-card 20. Have I missed something?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Kerkebet
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May 3rd, 2015 at 4:52:02 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

...Have I missed something?


Yes.
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
Kerkebet
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May 3rd, 2015 at 5:07:54 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

2-2-2-3-3 in any order, followed by A-A-A-A followed by 4.


I see that you continued with the edit, instead of an acknowledgement.

Fair enough, but the number still sounds a bit high to me. "Sounds".
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
tokearoo
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May 3rd, 2015 at 7:35:57 PM permalink
Eight deck shoe, dealer stands on soft 17.I was playing head to head , about 7 or 8 hands into the shoe.
Dalex64
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May 3rd, 2015 at 7:53:12 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I think for one deck, stand on soft17, it is 160,751,859,009 to 1 That's 160 billion to one.
Have I missed something?



Yes, there were five twos.
teliot
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May 3rd, 2015 at 7:59:50 PM permalink
Quote: tokearoo

Eight deck shoe, dealer stands on soft 17.

About 1727566255-to-1.
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teliot
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May 3rd, 2015 at 8:30:13 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I would sure stay with that shoe and increase my bet too.

S17, DOA, DAS,

Eight decks, off the top H/A = -0.43248%.

Remove the cards 2,2,2,2,3,A,A,A,2,4 from the shoe, then H/A = -0.28219%.
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 3rd, 2015 at 8:38:23 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

S17, DOA, DAS,

Eight decks, off the top H/A = -0.43248%.

Remove the cards 2,2,2,2,3,A,A,A,2,4 from the shoe, then H/A = -0.28219%.


What if we remove ALL of the 2 through 9's?? :-)~

I'd love to play with 8 pinochle decks :-D
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gordonm888
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May 3rd, 2015 at 8:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

Yes, there were five twos.



I realized he had 5 deuces, but he asked what were the odds of making a 10-card 20? and I was just supplying an academic answer to supplement what everyone else was saying. I thought my calc was interesting, I hope you agree.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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May 3rd, 2015 at 8:45:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What if we remove ALL of the 2 through 9's?? :-)~

I'd love to play with 8 pinochle decks :-D



Pinochle decks have 9s.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mustangsally
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May 3rd, 2015 at 9:13:42 PM permalink
Quote: tokearoo

Eight deck shoe, dealer stands on soft 17.I was playing head to head , about 7 or 8 hands into the shoe.

well, your hard 18 was it just 10,8 or 8,10
if yes
against a dealer 2 you only win abouts 50% of the time (i thinks that's close without looking)

of course
you played against what is known as the Dealer's Ace (the 2 - it is not the loneliest(?) number but close)
for the dealer's hand that is, losing to the 2 is nothing to write home about

you have a photo to share of this rare event?

how did the Dealer place all those cards on the table?
how many suits came over to view this?

thanks for sharing and hope you write about something rare of a win by you
in other words
a super bad beat for the casino
Sally
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mustangsally
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May 3rd, 2015 at 9:22:27 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

About 1727566255-to-1.

1,727,566,255

looks
abouts
3 times more likely than that 154 roll craps hand (at one time a world's record) by Grandma Pat.


I heard that record by Pat D
just fell to a single Mom in a Nevada casino
something like 163 or 164 rolls

that Mom, whose name will not be released because she told HER MOM she would never again play Craps while the kids were still in school
and something about State money, ouch!

o oh
caught RED handed at Craps she was!
(on FIRE!)

yes girl!
Mully
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 3rd, 2015 at 10:06:15 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Pinochle decks have 9s.


I know. That's why I separated the statement from my question.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Face
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May 3rd, 2015 at 11:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

(the 2 - it is not the loneliest(?) number but close)



Interesting. Two can be as bad as one. If it "can be", that must mean that on occasion, it is. If it is "as bad", then it is also "equal to".

2 = 1. You heard it here first.
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Biggredd
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May 7th, 2015 at 4:27:40 PM permalink
Quote: tokearoo

I was recently victim of this dealer hand . I stayed with hard 18, dealer showing a 2. Dealer's hand ended up
2,2,2,2,3,A,A,A,2,4 for 20. Anyone know the odds of pulling a 10 card 20?

Got beat one time with seven 2s and 7.
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 7th, 2015 at 4:33:50 PM permalink
The most I've personally seen was a 9 card 21. It was a mid sized minus count and I was sitting out. :-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
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May 7th, 2015 at 6:16:23 PM permalink
I cant remeber the exact hand but the dealer pulled AAAAA and some other low cards, this was a S17 table.
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arcticfun
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May 12th, 2015 at 6:35:26 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I cant remeber the exact hand but the dealer pulled AAAAA and some other low cards, this was a S17 table.



This. 100000x this. Not too long ago, my dealer got AAAAA6 for 21. That is the worst.
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