Grarg
Grarg
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May 1st, 2015 at 10:35:14 AM permalink
Some casinos don't draw their own hole card until all the players have acted. Does this give the last player to act an advantage?

For example, you'll never go wrong hitting a 12 against a 7,8,9,10, you'll never go wrong hitting since if you bust, you would have lost anyway since the dealer would have taken the 10.
Donuts
Donuts
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May 1st, 2015 at 10:40:22 AM permalink
No, card order is irrelevant. Your play decisions don't change based on whether or not the dealer takes a whole card. Just because you would have lost either way doesn't mean you had an advantage at any point.

Example:
You have a 13, the dealer has a 10.
You hit a 6, but the dealer pulls a 10.

If you hadn't hit the dealer would've busted with a 26 and you would've won - so what? Who the hell is going to stand on a 13 v 10?

The dealers hole card and the card you receive on a hit are (almost) completely independent.
charliepatrick
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May 1st, 2015 at 3:18:31 PM permalink
Firstly if the dealer doesn't take a hole-card the main issue is what happens if the dealer gets Blackjack. It isn't in the player's advantage if you lose a split or double (i.e. European method) as occasionally you have to make inferior plays (e.g. not split 8s or double 11 vs 10).

On the other hand the 3rd base can get a lot of grief in the scenario you mentioned, whereas in the US method the dealer already had 20 (or whatever); obviously sometimes the dealer has a stiff, in which case it's different.

Technically there is little difference between the Atlantic City (dealer doesn't have a hole card but returns any splits/doubles) and Las Vegas (dealer peeks). With Las Vegas (i) less cards are used if the dealer has BJ (ii) an additional card has been drawn if everyone busts (less likely) (iii) dealer has to draw a 2nd card and peek (i.e. added security risk). In Atlantic City they have to keep bust hands after a split.

The net effect is you play more hands per hour in Las Vegas, but it doesn't affect the House Edge.
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 1st, 2015 at 5:24:28 PM permalink
Quote: Grarg

Some casinos don't draw their own hole card until all the players have acted. Does this give the last player to act an advantage?



Yes, if (and only if) the last player to act knows what the next card or cards to be dealt are.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Deck007
Deck007
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May 1st, 2015 at 5:40:22 PM permalink
No advantage.
But you should know you are playing a different BJ game with different BS.
You are probably playing outside the US and playing European BJ.
Refer to Wizard on European BJ.
andysif
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May 1st, 2015 at 7:34:08 PM permalink
But BS is based on the assumption that player and dealer each draws independently from the deck(s).

Had any simulation been done using the OP's scenario, ie "if I don't draw that card it is given to the dealer"?

Please just don't say "order of card is not important" bla..bla..bla. I had a gut feeling that OP's argument may have some merit. Only way to prove me wrong is a simulation using that scenario
RedJack
RedJack
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May 1st, 2015 at 8:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: andysif


Had any simulation been done using the OP's scenario, ie "if I don't draw that card it is given to the dealer"?

Please just don't say "order of card is not important" bla..bla..bla. I had a gut feeling that OP's argument may have some merit.




Isn't this the same kind of argument as another player's decision to draw another card vs. stand? "Sometimes it helps you and sometimes it hurts; in the long run it evens out and makes no difference"?
Twirdman
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May 1st, 2015 at 9:04:03 PM permalink
Quote: Grarg

Some casinos don't draw their own hole card until all the players have acted. Does this give the last player to act an advantage?

For example, you'll never go wrong hitting a 12 against a 7,8,9,10, you'll never go wrong hitting since if you bust, you would have lost anyway since the dealer would have taken the 10.



There are situations where it can hurt you though. For instance say you have a 12 against a dealer 9 you draw a 7. You've improved your hand but it might be the case dealer draws a 6 and a 5. You lost 19 to dealer 20. If you had stayed dealer would have drawn your 7 and the 6 and got 22 for a bust against your 12 a win. There are other similar situations like this.
andysif
andysif
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May 1st, 2015 at 10:16:37 PM permalink
Quote: RedJack

Isn't this the same kind of argument as another player's decision to draw another card vs. stand? "Sometimes it helps you and sometimes it hurts; in the long run it evens out and makes no difference"?


yes, i agree that the claim "he took my 10" is total nonsense.
and here i am NOT saying "had I knew it I should have left that 6 for the dealer"

What I am (and the OP is) trying to say is:

I have x, the dealer had y up
The next card had 1/13 of being an A. If that A is given to me, I had x(A)% of winning. If it is given to the dealer, he had y(A)% of winning. Therefore I H/S
The next card had 1/13 of being a 2. If that 2 is given to me, I had x(2)% of winning. If it is given to the dealer, he had y(2)% of winning. Therefore I H/S
The next card had 1/13 of being a 3 ......
....
The H/S decision is done on each individual rank, then their total is compared.

By contrast, BS decision is based on comparing the sum of (exp(x(A)), exp(x(2)), ...) and sum of sum of (exp(y(A)), exp(y(2)), ...), and only one H/S decision is made at the end.

Would there be any situation that the H/S decision will be different from BS? I don't know. But it seems a legitimate question. So I want to know if any simulation was done base on that scenario.
mcallister3200
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May 1st, 2015 at 10:45:22 PM permalink
It makes it more difficult to determine if you're taking the dealers bust card or not. Everyone at the table should work together as a team to make the dealer bust. The last player to act makes the most important decision.;)
Deck007
Deck007
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May 2nd, 2015 at 3:04:13 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

It makes it more difficult to determine if you're taking the dealers bust card or not. Everyone at the table should work together as a team to make the dealer bust. The last player to act makes the most important decision.;)



You are every BJ players worst nightmare.

I once found myself joining a table where the woman on my left is scolding the woman in first base for spoiling the cards for others on the table.
I tried to calm down the heat by saying just let everybody play their own game.
The woman on my left shot back at me " Excuse me, the name of the game is not for everybody to play their own game. The name of the game is to try and bust the dealer."
netpup
netpup
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March 12th, 2020 at 2:11:13 PM permalink
The sky is blue. No need to run a simulation to prove me wrong.
An independent event is an independent event. Even if you don't want to believe it.
This is common sense man
sabre
sabre
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March 12th, 2020 at 3:25:37 PM permalink
Quote: netpup

The sky is blue. No need to run a simulation to prove me wrong.
An independent event is an independent event. Even if you don't want to believe it.
This is common sense man



Holy necro spam batman!
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 12th, 2020 at 3:55:08 PM permalink
Quote: Donuts

No, card order is irrelevant.



I agree.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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