Math question for Blackjack

In Blackjack, if the 1st 2 cards score less than 10 (with ace =1), what are the probabilities for the hand to win / push / lose with Basic Strategy?

well if your going to play blackjack id hope you'd use basic strategy, but i got a feeling you aint going to be having any math majors anwser this question. Because how about you think about your question for a second?, Does it reallly matter what the odds are of winning that first hand with a score of less than 10? You can know the odds up and down left and right back and forth and all it does is make good table talk, which i wouldnt be talking about anyways because the suits may look at you differently then if they get wind of that conversation. But really odds dont change the outcome of the cards. And even the odds arent exact, like dealer busting say on 6, its around i cant remember so ill guess 43 or 44% of the time he will bust, but that is LONG term over hours and hours and lots of shoes will that percentage be reached, short term outcome has not been calculated in dealer busting percentages, so he may make that 6 card showig into a 20 everytime for the next 5 shoes..

Off on a rant i know, but in blackjack even though odds are nice to know their completly irrelevant with a huge exception to basic strategy. Because even if you know for instance.....o i got a 95% chance of winning the hand i was just dealt..... well of course thats what it says on paper, but its been my experience that the cards come out funny ways on the felt.

One card counting method is to observe how many low cards have been dealt. Tracking 2 cards score less than 10 is certainly easier than tracking every low card. OK, this may give some smart guys to develop a new card counting strategy.

Quote: superbacc

In Blackjack, if the 1st 2 cards score less than 10 (with ace =1), what are the probabilities for the hand to win / push / lose with Basic Strategy?

Leaving out soft totals of less than 10 for minute, most hands with a hard total of less than 10 are more likely to lose than to push or win. If you add in soft totals the answer is less obvious since many soft totals of less than 10 have a positive expected value.

You can answer this question yourself for any starting conditions by downloading the Wizard's tables in Appendix 9 on his Wizard of Odds site. Download them into an Excel spreadsheet, parse the data, and sort them into a set of starting conditions (like sum is less than 10). He has probabilities of the occurance of each hand.

You don't have to work it out from first principles. I'm just too lazy to do it.