Wondering which would be the better decision.

I was thinking which would give you the better odds.
This is all hypothetical.

One option is to be able to see the dealers hole card.

The second option is to be able to see the next card in the shoe, and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone.

In the end I was wondering which would be better for your odds option 1 or 2.

I would imagine that option 2 would be more powerful as long as you was sitting at 1st base.

If you was sitting at any other position then option 1 would be better IMO, with the value of option 2 deteriorating as you moved further away from 1st base.

I like to be able to see the dealers hole card.

It is like playing Double Exposure Blackjack

with out Dealer wins on any ties and Player blackjack pays 3 to 2 and not even money.

I don't know the house edge on option 1 or 2, but I think option 1 (seeing the dealers hole card) is more Power full then option 2 (seeing the next card in the shoe).

Odds are too close for me, no preference over one or the other. Either option will yield the same results for me for 99% of plays. That is, I will keep taking cards until I beat or tie with the dealer in option 1; or I will keep taking cards in option 2 and stop to avoid the next card that may bust me.

The game becomes a question if you feel lucky on pushes and go for a win--option #2 may help more. But with this insane advantage, I would just save the money, go for a push, and double the next bet or when I feel luckier.

In my opinion, I do not think the house will have a noticeable advantage that is better over one to the other. That is, the player will simply play the "best" BJ that they can play, but even playing the "perfect" game, the dealer can still beat you because that is how the cards were shuffled and play out.

On the other hand, knowing a card in option 1 or 2 may change game play where players may circumvent basic strategy for a better winning play. Such as option 1 with a 10 showing and a dealer total of 15 or 16, you may stand on your 12-16 when you would otherwise hit it. Or, in option 2, save the impending 10 for the dealer even if it means that you would stand on less than 10--maybe the odd is better to bust the dealer's 2-6 showing than to take it for your low hand that totals 3-7.

I'm no expert but surely hole card info is far more valuable than next card info?

Also, if you knew the value of the next card, such as shuffle tracking or key card usage, then you can really go to town if you knew the next card out would be an ACE or a TEN (combined approximate edge of about 21%).

Knowing the value of the next card would simply inform you to draw or not but the value of the dealer card could help to bust his hand.

I guess it could be argued that if you knew the value of the next card then you could double in the right situations? Then you won't have much longevity and you also will not be guaranteed a winner as the dealer still has to draw.

Again, I'm no expert but I think knowing the hole card value would be much more beneficial. (Unless sitting in the first spot and the next card out is an ACE).

Quote: KitKat

Odds are too close for me, no preference over one or the other. Either option will yield the same results for me for 99% of plays. That is, I will keep taking cards until I beat or tie with the dealer in option 1; or I will keep taking cards in option 2 and stop to avoid the next card that may bust me.

The game becomes a question if you feel lucky on pushes and go for a win--option #2 may help more. But with this insane advantage, I would just save the money, go for a push, and double the next bet or when I feel luckier.

Hi KitKat and Tomspur,

I think you both got the second option wrong, it say:
and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone (only the next card, Not every next cards. I think it means only can see 1 card.).

(The second option is to be able to see the next card in the shoe, and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone.)

Quote: Tomspur

I'm no expert but surely hole card info is far more valuable than next card info?

Not remotely close, particularly if you are alone vs the dealer and willing to play with no cover.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Not remotely close, particularly if you are alone vs the dealer and willing to play with no cover.

Just to expand on this, if I have 100% next-card info and can play with no cover:

1. I never bust.
2. All my 3-card 20s and 21s are doubled. Every single one of them. These almost all win. 10-5-6 vs a 6 is a doubled 21 instead of stand on 15 and hoping that the dealer busts.
3. I can make a lot of profitable splits that I would not otherwise make (eg, TT, next card T). TT is a common hand and I can split it very profitably in the right situations.

Without doing any math whatsoever, I'm going to guess that I have a 50% edge (maybe more) if I play with no cover, compared to ~10% if know the hole card and play with no cover.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Not remotely close, particularly if you are alone vs the dealer and willing to play with no cover.

Hi AxiomOfChoice,

Yes, it is very powerful if you see the next card before the hands are dealt.

but the question was: (to be able to see the next card in the shoe, and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone.)

Hmm...I don't see how seeing the single next card would be a close advantage to ask this question.

If that was the case, I think seeing the hole card would have an better advantage than just to see only 1 "next" card.

Quote: MrCasinoGames

Hi KitKat and Tomspur,

I think you both got the second option wrong, it say:
and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone (only the next card, Not every next cards. I think it means only can see 1 card.).

(The second option is to be able to see the next card in the shoe, and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone.)

Quote: MrCasinoGames

Hi AxiomOfChoice,

Yes, it is very powerful if you see the next card before the hands are dealt.

but the question was: (to be able to see the next card in the shoe, and only the next card after the starting 2 cards have been dealt for everyone.)

I was talking about the next card (but after all cards, not only the first 2). I am not talking about betting big when good cards are coming.

I have played a game like this before. Not for real money, unfortunately. There was a blackjack game for my phone that had a "cheat" mode, which would show you the next card. For fun, I played it a bit -- your bankroll just shoots up exponentially. I'm talking about starting with $1000 and eventually making max $100k bets.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Just to expand on this, if I have 100% next-card info and can play with no cover:

1. I never bust.
2. All my 3-card 20s and 21s are doubled. Every single one of them. These almost all win. 10-5-6 vs a 6 is a doubled 21 instead of stand on 15 and hoping that the dealer busts.
3. I can make a lot of profitable splits that I would not otherwise make (eg, TT, next card T). TT is a common hand and I can double it very profitably in the right situations.

Without doing any math whatsoever, I'm going to guess that I have a 50% edge (maybe more) if I play with no cover, compared to ~10% if know the hole card and play with no cover.

Hi AxiomOfChoice,

You have a very good point here. I did not think of it as like this.

I think you are right, The second option is better (being able to double your money in some situations) that is when powerful.

deleted

It seems like this has pretty much been resolved, but, for the sake of completeness, I wanted to point out that there is one more effect that I forgot to mention:

The dealer will bust a lot more often (assuming that I am heads up vs the dealer, or at least at 3rd base)

If I keep taking cards until I would bust on the next one, and then stand, there is a much higher than usual probability that the dealer gets a high card as his first draw -- the cards that I am steering towards him (ie, the card that I refuse to take) are skewed towards the high end. The end result is that the dealer busts many more of his stiffs than usual. He also makes more hands when starting with hands 11 or below, but stiffs are far more common.