Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:28:59 AM permalink
New dealer. Terrible dealer.

Nice guy to begin with. It's pretty empty on the floor. Then a ploppy sits down, and suddenly he's a jerk. Why did you change to two hands, if it's not broke don't fix it (the ploppy didn't care, nor was he tipping--and I was doing this previously, without comment). And other comments until the ploppy leaves. Plus he's slow. Then this...

Back to heads up. The count skyrockets. I have max bets out. Two weak hands against a 10. Dealer flips it over to reveal another 10, and takes my bets. Floor gets called over, and I have to play out my hands. I hit my first one for 18. So I hit it again, and bust it with a 6. My other hand was a soft 14, which I then busted. Would you be mad that this dealer is an idiot? I sure was. Obviously, I'd be happy seeing the hole card every hand. But when some freak occurrence by a sloppy and rude dealer occurs that costs me big, I was pretty ticked. Any remedies?
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:32:12 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

New dealer. Terrible dealer.

Nice guy to begin with. It's pretty empty on the floor. Then a ploppy sits down, and suddenly he's a jerk. Why did you change to two hands, if it's not broke don't fix it (the ploppy didn't care, nor was he tipping). And other comments until the ploppy leaves. Plus he's slow. Then this...

Back to heads up. The count skyrockets. I have max bets out. Two weak hands against a 10. Dealer flips it over to reveal another 10, and takes my bets. Floor gets called over, and I have to play out my hands. I hit my first one for 18. So I hit it again, and bust it with a 6. My other hand was a soft 14, which I then busted. Would you be mad that this dealer is an idiot? I sure was. Obviously, I'd be happy seeing the hole card every hand. But when some freak occurrence by a sloppy and rude dealer occurs that costs me big, I was pretty ticked. Any remedies?


and if the dealer flipped over a 6 or 7 this thread wouldn't exist. Don't be results oriented.

I would be annoyed but I would just leave, find a new table, or stop tipping.

Mistakes do happen and I am sure he wasn't trying to hurt you.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:38:14 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

and if the dealer flipped over a 6 or 7 this thread wouldn't exist. Don't be results oriented.

I would be annoyed but I would just leave, find a new table, or stop tipping.

Mistakes do happen and I am sure he wasn't trying to hurt you.



So, that's a yes, you would you be mad? No, he wasn't trying to hurt me, he was an idiot...he had already been chastised by a very soft-spoken pit boss for not paying attention to his job. If I didn't care about results, I would play for fun, not profit.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:39:07 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

and if the dealer flipped over a 6 or 7 this thread wouldn't exist. Don't be results oriented.

I would be annoyed but I would just leave, find a new table, or stop tipping.

Mistakes do happen and I am sure he wasn't trying to hurt you.



I would absolutely not leave a table where a dealer is mistake-prone. Dealers who make mistakes are worth a fortune, exactly because of situations like this.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I would absolutely not leave a table where a dealer is mistake-prone. Dealers who make mistakes are worth a fortune, exactly because of situations like this.



He was extremely slow. And the extreme anger after that hand, I needed to leave the table. Plus, it wouldn't have mattered, cuz he left soon after...wasn't the end of a shift, maybe he got in trouble. Hopefully, he lost his job. I get your point tho.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:43:44 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

He was extremely slow. And the extreme anger after that hand, I needed to leave the table. Plus, it wouldn't have mattered, cuz he left soon after...wasn't the end of a shift, maybe he got in trouble.



You need to control your emotions. You have no reason to be upset here. If you care that much about 1 max bet then you are over-betting your bankroll. You being visibly upset will make it more likely that the dealer will lose his job, which is the last thing that you want. You want to play against this same guy as much as possible.

Slow is fine if he is making mistakes. I'll bet that this is not the only one that he is making. I don't believe for a second that he is adding up 4 and 5 card hands correctly.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:48:54 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You need to control your emotions. You have no reason to be upset here. If you care that much about 1 max bet then you are over-betting your bankroll. You being visibly upset will make it more likely that the dealer will lose his job, which is the last thing that you want. You want to play against this same guy as much as possible.

Slow is fine if he is making mistakes. I'll bet that this is not the only one that he is making. I don't believe for a second that he is adding up 4 and 5 card hands correctly.



No, no. I am under-betting my BR, I am a conservative bettor. But it is a large bet regardless, and I would not have lost it to ANY other dealer who followed proper protocol. Him losing his job is not the last thing I want, lol. My style is not to seek out weak dealers who are slow. It is to seek out low table mins and spread large and go as long as I can before I get backed off. He didn't make any other mistakes. He tried to pay my 19 when he had 21, but he caught himself. He clearly is an idiot and mistake-prone, but the only mistake he made cost me. He'd have to make a lot of errors to make up for it. Screw him, I hope he's canned. Seriously, there's no way someone that weak would realistically survive...they'd get rid of him unless he got his act together. I've seen dealers make many errors...almost all them are ones you can either let go or you can catch, or the PB will give everyone a pass. This was an error of a different sort...flukish, but based on the dealer, not really.
ChampagneFireball
ChampagneFireball
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 118
Joined: May 2, 2010
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Back to heads up. The count skyrockets. I have max bets out. Two weak hands against a 10. Dealer flips it over to reveal another 10, and takes my bets. Floor gets called over, and I have to play out my hands. I hit my first one for 18. So I hit it again, and bust it with a 6. My other hand was a soft 14, which I then busted. Would you be mad that this dealer is an idiot? I sure was. Obviously, I'd be happy seeing the hole card every hand. But when some freak occurrence by a sloppy and rude dealer occurs that costs me big, I was pretty ticked. Any remedies?



I'm missing how knowing that he has a 20 costs you money here. If you stayed on the 18, you would have lost. And assuming the soft 14 probably would have lost or busted too, it sounds like he gave you an opportunity to save two losing hands, hands that were at max bet.

You should be thankful to get such opportunities if you are playing for the money. If you are playing to have a good time and your max bet is insignificant for you, you should have left to go have fun elsewhere. I know why I would be there, and I know what I would have done. But I wouldn't be mad about having an opportunity for turning losers into winners.
dwheatley
dwheatley
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:57:57 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

No, no. I am under-betting my BR, I am a conservative bettor. But it is a large bet regardless, and I would not have lost it to ANY other dealer who followed proper protocol.



What's this? Something's missing in your story. Sounds like the dealer had 20, so you got the chance to play out your hands to beat that. How is this worse than not knowing?
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 10:58:40 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

No, no. I am under-betting my BR, I am a conservative bettor. But it is a large bet regardless, and I would not have lost it to ANY other dealer who followed proper protocol. Him losing his job is not the last thing I want, lol. My style is not to seek out weak dealers who are slow. It is to seek out low table mins and spread large and go as long as I can before I get backed off. He didn't make any other mistakes. He tried to pay my 19 when he had 21, but he caught himself. He clearly is an idiot and mistake-prone, but the only mistake he made cost me. He'd have to make a lot of errors to make up for it. Screw him, I hope he's canned. Seriously, there's no way someone that weak would realistically survive...they'd get rid of him unless he got his act together.



First of all, the mistake that he made was worth a lot to you, in EV. The fact that it didn't work out is irrelevant, from a gambling perspective.

Second, he has to make only ONE error in your favor to make up for it. In fact, if it's the right mistake (paying you on a loser), just half. You are underestimating how valuable these errors are. Showing you the hole card is worth over 10%. Paying you on a push or pushing a loser is 100%. Paying you on a loser is 200%. And you are upset because he is going to slow so you get 10% or 20% fewer hands where your edge is, maybe, 0.5%? That is crazy.

The only thing is, don't get so caught up with counting that you don't bother to add up the dealer's hand when he has a lot of small cards. That is something that I would expect him to mess up a lot. Also make sure that he is not hitting hands he should stand on, or vice-versa, when the hands contain many cards (that one is easy to miss if you just add up his cards at the end)
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:02:53 AM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

What's this? Something's missing in your story. Sounds like the dealer had 20, so you got the chance to play out your hands to beat that. How is this worse than not knowing?



Well, the actual result hurt him because he hit his 18 (which he would not do if he did not see the dealer's hole card) and caught a 6. His 2nd hand was 14. Had he not hit the 18, he would have pushed the 2nd hand. So it cost him a bet.

This is crazy results-oriented analysis. As a wise man once said, it's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you had a good bet.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:11:56 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

First of all, the mistake that he made was worth a lot to you, in EV. The fact that it didn't work out is irrelevant, from a gambling perspective.

Second, he has to make only ONE error in your favor to make up for it. In fact, if it's the right mistake (paying you on a loser), just half. You are underestimating how valuable these errors are. Showing you the hole card is worth over 10%. Paying you on a push or pushing a loser is 100%. Paying you on a loser is 200%. And you are upset because he is going to slow so you get 10% or 20% fewer hands where your edge is, maybe, 0.5%? That is crazy.

The only thing is, don't get so caught up with counting that you don't bother to add up the dealer's hand when he has a lot of small cards. That is something that I would expect him to mess up a lot. Also make sure that he is not hitting hands he should stand on, or vice-versa, when the hands contain many cards (that one is easy to miss if you just add up his cards at the end)



I realize the advantage of knowing the hole card. But I'm not a hole carder. I lost a hand because he screwed up. Of course I am going to play properly when I know I have to beat 20, but other than that, I don't think in terms of EV when, after a few thousand hours of play, I am faced with a one-time only freak occurrence. I think in actual value. And since I have never seen this guy before, don't know his regular shift nor his regular games, and have no plans to follow him around, I'm not going to switch into long-term mode. Paying me on a loser for a minimum bet is 200%...but it doesn't make up for it. He made 1 error...yes I'd rather play alone, at a faster rate. But if I see him more and observe he is still mentally challenged, perhaps I will take some of your wisdom to heart and exploit him without mercy, and attempt to purposely confuse him by using multi-denominations in the betting circle--that works on normal dealers. Speaking of, when I hit my 18 against his 20, the pit boss actually had to instruct him to give me a card. This is how lame this guy is.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:17:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Well, the actual result hurt him because he hit his 18 (which he would not do if he did not see the dealer's hole card) and caught a 6. His 2nd hand was 14. Had he not hit the 18, he would have pushed the 2nd hand. So it cost him a bet.

This is crazy results-oriented analysis. As a wise man once said, it's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you had a good bet.



Not crazy. 10% theoretical edge is irrelevant for one hand in a million...variance is in complete control. You'd honestly be happy with this result and follow this dealer around like a puppy? Wise man never said anything about pushes.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:19:21 AM permalink
Expectation is additive. It doesn't matter whether a particular situation comes up once or 1,000,000 times. You still add the expectation for the once-in-a-lifetime occurrence to the sum of the expectations of the things that come up every minute. There is no such thing as short-term vs long-term; that is just an attempt to explain expectation to people who are bad at math.

Your logic here is no different from the ploppy who gets mad when you hit your 16 and take the dealer's bust card.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:20:41 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Expectation is additive. It doesn't matter whether a particular situation comes up once or 1,000,000 times. You still add the expectation for the once-in-a-lifetime occurrence to the sum of the expectations of the things that come up every minute. There is no such thing as short-term vs long-term; that is just an attempt to explain expectation to people who are bad at math.

Your logic here is no different from the ploppy who gets mad when you hit your 16 and take the dealer's bust card.



It doesn't add to anything because it never happens. It is different because you get a 16 all the time. In the latter case, variance smooths out and results tend towards your expectation. In the former, that does not occur...you cannot possibly get a push, plus 10%.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:20:56 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Not crazy. 10% theoretical edge is irrelevant for one hand in a million...variance is in complete control. You'd honestly be happy with this result and follow this dealer around like a puppy? Wise man never said anything about pushes.



Of course I would follow him. This guy is clearly a terrible dealer. I expect him to make several mistakes per hour. Dealer mistakes are worth a lot.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:22:19 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Of course I would follow him. This guy is clearly a terrible dealer. I expect him to make several mistakes per hour. Dealer mistakes are worth a lot.



The question remains. Would you be mad? Initially, when you are shocked by the inadequacy of the casino's hiring practices and/or felon screening procedure.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:25:02 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

The question remains. Would you be mad?



No. I would have been happy that I found a bad dealer.

Also, it's not even completely clear that his mistake cost you money, even with results-oriented analysis. You haven't given us enough information. What about the next hand? Did you win it? Would you have lost if one less card had been used on the mistake hands? And what about the hand after that one? And the hand after that one? And every hand for the rest of the shoe? Are you sure that your results for the whole shoe are worse than they would have been without the mistake?

Not only is your analysis results-oriented, it's cherry-picked.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:27:30 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

No. I would have been happy that I found a bad dealer.

Also, it's not even completely clear that his mistake cost you money, even with results-oriented analysis. You haven't given us enough information. What about the next hand? Did you win it? Would you have lost if one less card had been used on the mistake hands? And what about the hand after that one? And the hand after that one? And every hand for the rest of the shoe? Are you sure that your results for the whole shoe are worse than they would have been without the mistake?

Not only is your analysis results-oriented, it's cherry-picked.



Last hand of the shoe. Nice try lol. And in case this somehow affected the shuffle, they use an ASM with two different shoes. OK, you would have been happy. GWAE would have been mad. You both would have ignored that you lost by reasoning you theoretically won. I don't like that approach because I only care what my bank statement says, not what EV says. I merely recognize EV is needed to attain an advantage, which causes nice bank statements. Anyone else?
1BB
1BB
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
May 23rd, 2014 at 11:55:51 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Last hand of the shoe. Nice try lol. And in case this somehow affected the shuffle, they use an ASM with two different shoes. OK, you would have been happy. GWAE would have been mad. You both would have ignored that you lost by reasoning you theoretically won. I don't like that approach because I only care what my bank statement says, not what EV says. I merely recognize EV is needed to attain an advantage, which causes nice bank statements. Anyone else?



No surrender? Is this Atlantic City?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 12:07:41 PM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Last hand of the shoe. Nice try lol. And in case this somehow affected the shuffle, they use an ASM with two different shoes. OK, you would have been happy. GWAE would have been mad. You both would have ignored that you lost by reasoning you theoretically won. I don't like that approach because I only care what my bank statement says, not what EV says. I merely recognize EV is needed to attain an advantage, which causes nice bank statements. Anyone else?



So every time you make a bet with an edge and lose you get mad?
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 12:09:10 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

No surrender? Is this Atlantic City?



Don't wanna say where I was, sorry 1BB. But there was no surrender.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 12:10:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

So every time you make a bet with an edge and lose you get mad?



Well, I am never happy when I lose. But everytime a dealer causes me to lose (does something other than deal out random cards), yes, I suppose I would be mad. Interference. Additionally, I do not have an edge over a 20. There is a theoretical edge if I see hole cards consistently.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 12:19:07 PM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Well, I am never happy when I lose. But everytime a dealer causes me to lose (does something other than deal out random cards), yes, I suppose I would be mad. Interference. Additionally, I do not have an edge over a 20. There is a theoretical edge if I see hole cards consistently.



My point is that it is irrational to get mad. You were given information which gave you additional EV. Whether you have an overall edge on the hand is irrelevant; the point is, you have higher EV than if you didn't get to see the card. The fact that seeing it cost you money doesn't matter.

If I walk up to you and offer you 5-1 on a coin flip, and you accept the bet, and lose, are you mad at me for offering you the +EV bet, or are you happy and nice to me and hope that I will agree to bet again? If you play poker and someone called with just a gutshot draw for their whole stack, getting 2-1, and they hit, are you mad at them, or are you happy that your opponents are terrible? If someone walks up to a roulette table and makes a $1000 bet on 13, and hits it for a $35k payout, is the casino mad, or are they happy that they have a customer willing to make sucker bets at those stakes?

This is how gambling works. Sometimes you lose, even when you have an edge.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 4300
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
May 23rd, 2014 at 1:44:47 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

My point is that it is irrational to get mad. You were given information which gave you additional EV. Whether you have an overall edge on the hand is irrelevant; the point is, you have higher EV than if you didn't get to see the card. The fact that seeing it cost you money doesn't matter.

If I walk up to you and offer you 5-1 on a coin flip, and you accept the bet, and lose, are you mad at me for offering you the +EV bet, or are you happy and nice to me and hope that I will agree to bet again? If you play poker and someone called with just a gutshot draw for their whole stack, getting 2-1, and they hit, are you mad at them, or are you happy that your opponents are terrible? If someone walks up to a roulette table and makes a $1000 bet on 13, and hits it for a $35k payout, is the casino mad, or are they happy that they have a customer willing to make sucker bets at those stakes?

This is how gambling works. Sometimes you lose, even when you have an edge.


Well said, Axiom.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
May 23rd, 2014 at 2:03:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

No. I would have been happy that I found a bad dealer.

Also, it's not even completely clear that his mistake cost you money, even with results-oriented analysis. You haven't given us enough information. What about the next hand? Did you win it? Would you have lost if one less card had been used on the mistake hands? And what about the hand after that one? And the hand after that one? And every hand for the rest of the shoe? Are you sure that your results for the whole shoe are worse than they would have been without the mistake?

Not only is your analysis results-oriented, it's cherry-picked.



Very well said.

OP when I said don't be results oriented I think I was correct in saying so. Your end result should not matter in this instance. If you could have this happen on every hand then you would have such an advantage that you could put them out of business. As long as you made the right decision that is all that matters. It sucks to lose but that is the nature of gambling.

What's the Wizards tag line. I think that applies in this situation.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 23rd, 2014 at 3:41:12 PM permalink
This thread is ridiculous. You sound like the crazy ploppy, "WHY DID YOU TAKE THE DEALER'S BUST CARD??!!!" Of course that's only after the fact and they/you know what would have happened if a hit card was not taken.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 9:28:40 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

My point is that it is irrational to get mad. You were given information which gave you additional EV. Whether you have an overall edge on the hand is irrelevant; the point is, you have higher EV than if you didn't get to see the card. The fact that seeing it cost you money doesn't matter.

If I walk up to you and offer you 5-1 on a coin flip, and you accept the bet, and lose, are you mad at me for offering you the +EV bet, or are you happy and nice to me and hope that I will agree to bet again? If you play poker and someone called with just a gutshot draw for their whole stack, getting 2-1, and they hit, are you mad at them, or are you happy that your opponents are terrible? If someone walks up to a roulette table and makes a $1000 bet on 13, and hits it for a $35k payout, is the casino mad, or are they happy that they have a customer willing to make sucker bets at those stakes?

This is how gambling works. Sometimes you lose, even when you have an edge.



5-1 is ridiculously great odds. The others imply the circumstances will repeat and you will tend towards expectation. I would not be mad. In the last example, the casino probably is mad if he is an unknown, and checks to make sure there was nothing suspicious. Casinos are known to disallow lucky people from playing.

This was a freak occurrence. I am no more unhappy than usual about losing a particular large bet...it's the error. I understand the rational bright side you are pointing out, just don't understand why you're emotions also act so rationally. Of course we keep emotions to a minimum but...
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 9:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Very well said.

OP when I said don't be results oriented I think I was correct in saying so. Your end result should not matter in this instance. If you could have this happen on every hand then you would have such an advantage that you could put them out of business. As long as you made the right decision that is all that matters. It sucks to lose but that is the nature of gambling.

What's the Wizards tag line. I think that applies in this situation.



I agree, it would be extremely useful if this could happen on every hand. But the analysis is not cherry-picked. This happened once. There is no batch to pick from! This is the only actual data that exists. I know it could have gone the other way. Dealers never really caused me to lose any money, except this one hand. That made me mad. That's really all the thread is asking...I know holecarding has an advantage. I am more focused on results because of the income, that is not going to change--if EV says I should make X and I make Y, I am not happy if X is greater than Y--even though everyone else is I guess.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 9:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: RS

This thread is ridiculous. You sound like the crazy ploppy, "WHY DID YOU TAKE THE DEALER'S BUST CARD??!!!" Of course that's only after the fact and they/you know what would have happened if a hit card was not taken.



You sound like an annoying troll, "why don't I interrupt threads with nothing useful to say??!!!". Of course that's only after everyone covers the topic thoroughly and they/you know what the main arguments are.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 24th, 2014 at 11:45:04 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

5-1 is ridiculously great odds. The others imply the circumstances will repeat and you will tend towards expectation. I would not be mad. In the last example, the casino probably is mad if he is an unknown, and checks to make sure there was nothing suspicious. Casinos are known to disallow lucky people from playing.

This was a freak occurrence. I am no more unhappy than usual about losing a particular large bet...it's the error. I understand the rational bright side you are pointing out, just don't understand why you're emotions also act so rationally. Of course we keep emotions to a minimum but...



You understand that expectation has nothing to do with "the long term", right? Your expectation is your expectation. There is no requirement that the same event repeat itself many times.

Furthermore, you have many events to gamble over your lifetime. Whether the events are identical or not is irrelevant; you can just add up the expectations. And event that happens only once gets counted.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 12:17:49 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You understand that expectation has nothing to do with "the long term", right? Your expectation is your expectation. There is no requirement that the same event repeat itself many times.

Furthermore, you have many events to gamble over your lifetime. Whether the events are identical or not is irrelevant; you can just add up the expectations. And event that happens only once gets counted.



Expectation has nothing to do with long term? No, I am not sure what you mean. I would say expectation has nothing to do with the short term because that is variance's territory. Please clarify if I am in error.

I think you are kind of saying that the one time I get hit by a car and killed still counts towards my expectation of not getting hit by car. LOL, I don't care if I probably shouldn't die by car, theoretically. I don't see any concrete additive aspect in the game because session results are independent despite historical EV spikes/troughs and this a one-time incident. If this incident were to repeat through my lifetime, yes, it should be beneficial because I'd be a hole-carder and I'd just be mad at variance. I'm not mad at variance here that is the inevitable result of AP play. I'm mad at the sloppy dealer's error, which resulted in a common sense deviation of strategy.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1426
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 12:52:07 PM permalink
You have zero reason to be mad at this dealer. If he didn't make the mistake, you still would have lost those bets. By making the mistake, he basically gave you a mulligan. Sorry it didn't work out for you, but he didn't harm you in any way, shape or form.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 24th, 2014 at 1:34:00 PM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

You sound like an annoying troll, "why don't I interrupt threads with nothing useful to say??!!!". Of course that's only after everyone covers the topic thoroughly and they/you know what the main arguments are.



I only read up until the post where it was explained the 6 you drew on the 18 would have been drawn to the soft 14 to push against dealer's TT.

You're gonna have a tough time if you're this emotionally attached to a single max bet while having 20/20 vision in hindsight.

If something is +EV, take advantage of it and be happy you got the opportunity. Don't be unhappy if it doesn't work out.
jopke
jopke
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 132
Joined: Aug 14, 2012
May 24th, 2014 at 5:38:10 PM permalink
I'm with others, something doesn't make sense.

It sounds like he accidentally exposed his holecard allowing you to play perfectly. Why on earth would that make you mad?

I understand a slow dealer is annoying, but as others have said, a mistake-prone dealer is worth a lot to the player. Why not try to get into his head by urging him to deal faster? If he starts trying to deal quickly he'll likely make even more errors...
dwheatley
dwheatley
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 1246
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
May 24th, 2014 at 5:52:40 PM permalink
It's been explained that if he hadn't seen the hole-card, he would have followed basic strategy, and ultimately pushed one of the hands.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 24th, 2014 at 6:13:06 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
1BB
1BB
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
May 24th, 2014 at 6:23:13 PM permalink
Sometimes it goes in the player's favor. With max bet out I was dealt 14 vs 10. The player before me waved off on a soft 18 but the dealer hit him anyway. It was my 7. The floor is called and says the 7 is the next card to be played and asks if I want it. Before I could answer the pit boss came over and told me to double down.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 24th, 2014 at 6:26:24 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mikey75
Mikey75
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 639
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
May 24th, 2014 at 7:36:54 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I had this exact thing happen as I had 13 vs 10 and the player before me waved a 16 which the dealer inadvertently hit with an 8. Same scenario as the floor said it'll be the next card and let me double.



That's a advantage play if I've ever seen one!!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 24th, 2014 at 7:41:47 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Venthus
Venthus
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1125
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
May 24th, 2014 at 8:20:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

True, but one time out of the many many thousands of hands I've played its insignificant. Now of I had continuous next card info...... :-X



...it would still be useless because I'd still be getting a continuous stream of 15/16s, with a 10 next, and an ace up...
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
May 25th, 2014 at 2:04:16 AM permalink
Quote: Sonuvabish

Expectation has nothing to do with long term? No, I am not sure what you mean. I would say expectation has nothing to do with the short term because that is variance's territory. Please clarify if I am in error.



Expectation is simply a property of a random variable. If you make a bet only once, that bet still has an expectation.

Furthermore, expectation has a very nice property: you know that for any two random variables, the sum of the expectations is the expectation of the sum. That is, E(X+Y) = E(X) + E(Y). This is true even if the random variables are wildly different. So, whether this exact situation repeats itself again does not matter. Its expectation can still be added to the expectation of all the other bets over the course of your lifetime.

By the way, I really hate the term "random variable". They are neither random nor are they variables. They are functions that map possible results to probabilities.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
May 25th, 2014 at 2:59:44 AM permalink
What I especially don't like about this thought process (I meant to write it or imply it but forgot to), is that when the dealer exposed his cards, you took advantage of the situation, which is fine, but then complained about the outcome. If you didn't want the dealer error to effect you, you should have stayed on the 18 (first hand) like you normally would have. You can't take advantage of a situation then complain about it.

Another scenario: Dealer is showing a ten and accidentally exposes his hole-card which is a 6, for a hard total of 16. You have a pair of 4's, split then, get dealt a 3 on the first, then double down. The next 4 you get an Ace and double down. The dealer hits his hand and pulls a 5 for 21, taking 4 max bets from you. Do you complain because the dealer's error "caused" you to lose an extra 3 max bets? Or do you think "Hey, I was presented with an awesome situation, took advantage of it, but it didn't work out in my favor"?

Note how the previous situations are +EV and it's not "the dealer's fault" you lost. If the situation was different, where say, the dealer misdeals (forgets to deal someone cards, or deals cards to an empty spot) and you would have gotten a BJ, that's different, since there's no +EV in there and there's nothing you could have done about the situation. [Then again, the cards could have aligned up differently where you would have had a -EV hand, and the entire round is discarded, which would benefit you.]
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 25th, 2014 at 7:38:15 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

You have zero reason to be mad at this dealer. If he didn't make the mistake, you still would have lost those bets. By making the mistake, he basically gave you a mulligan. Sorry it didn't work out for you, but he didn't harm you in any way, shape or form.



Did you read the thread? This is completely wrong.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 25th, 2014 at 7:43:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

True, but one time out of the many many thousands of hands I've played its insignificant. Now of I had continuous next card info...... :-X



This is what I am saying. Although I read you generally agree this is a favorable situation, I am of the opinion it is insignificant in terms of EV because this never happens.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 25th, 2014 at 7:47:00 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 25th, 2014 at 7:50:54 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

That shouldn't matter. The fact you had this info, even for just one time win or lose, should make you happy not mad. Oh, and it does happen from time to time. Why do you think we seek out sloppy dealers?



The only times I've seen something similar is when we have the choice to keep or discard our hand. Never seen this type of error. I do not seek out sloppy dealers, look for respectful dealers, good pen, empty tables, and speed. Mispays are the errors I would be after anyway, not hole card info. Just my MO I guess. So I guess most people would be happy because they will follow this dealer around and assume he will repeatedly make the same mistake?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 25th, 2014 at 7:53:43 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
May 25th, 2014 at 7:56:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Nothing wrong with that, but when the opportunity presents itself, jump on it!



Of course. But I'm still mad that he's an idiot. And I think I'd prefer a dealer I like to him, all other circumstances equal. Couple pennies an hour extra, theoretically, isn't worth my hair falling out.
  • Jump to: