Vegas Vacation with AOS
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDealers can add up to 21 too (ok, I'm actually not that confident about that statement) but they make this mistake a lot. I have had to correct dealers several times. They screw up a lot of 5+ card hands.
My point is, how come you think that the dealer can make this mistake and you can't? By the way, have you ever caught a dealer in such a mistake? If not, then you've almost certainly missed a few.
I am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
18 yo's!Quote: FaceIt's Mendelson's 17 yo's all over again.
Quote:You're right, 1296 is basically a billion.
Quote:
I never claimed that.Quote:Would you be telling this story if you had lost the dollar?
No, why would I?
The odd part was not only did the premonition prove valid, so did the internal "clock"which for whatever reason told me when to make the two bets.
They were the only two bets on midnight I made."What, me worry?"
Quote: teddys18 yo's!
30 losses in a row is pretty unlikely, but still several trillion times more likely than 18 yo's in a row.
So, there's that.
Quote: MrVNo, why would I?
The odd part was not only did the premonition prove valid, so did the internal "clock"which for whatever reason told me when to make the two bets.
My point is that, since you would only tell the story if you had won (and not if you had lost) there is selection bias introduced, which basically makes the premonition part of the story uninteresting, mathematically. So we are left with 1 in 1296.
This selection bias is what makes people believe in stuff like this. People tell the stories about how they bet on something when they had a feeling and won. Nobody tells the stories about the times when they have a feeling, and lose anyway.
Quote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
I don't know why anyone would post anything about losses at this point. People on this forum have never lost a ton of money gambling and are always quick to criticize you if you do. Trip reports seem like a waste of time if you have a real bad run.
Quote: djatcQuote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
I don't know why anyone would post anything about losses at this point. People on this forum have never lost a ton of money gambling and are always quick to criticize you if you do. Trip reports seem like a waste of time if you have a real bad run.
Actually, the consensus in this thread was that ace's total trip loss was nothing to be ashamed of at his betting level. No one was criticizing how much he lost.
Quote: djatcQuote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
I don't know why anyone would post anything about losses at this point. People on this forum have never lost a ton of money gambling and are always quick to criticize you if you do. Trip reports seem like a waste of time if you have a real bad run.
Actually, the consensus in this thread was that ace's total trip loss was nothing to be ashamed of at his betting level. No one was criticizing how much he lost.
Quote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
Hey AoS,
I didn't read these latest posts in any detail. But you're a person of value. Just saying. Enjoyed your journey. Not interested in all this dancing on he head of a pin. Okay, it's a very long shot. Did it really happen? AoS thinks it did. Maybe it did. Perhaps close to impossible. Is it time to be clever and right, or tell the guy we're on his side? Maybe it's a strong feeling he got. It's real to him. Once again, I didn't read all the posts, but there comes a time when the calculations and probabilities are less important than our friendship for one another. I once had a friend that loved to place an any crap bet to protect his pass line wager. I think that's a 11.11% -EV. I'd make that wager right now if we were both belly up to the table. But I'm just rambling. Somebody's probably right and somebody's probably wrong. But there's more to people than the answer to this one question. This is not to deflate the quality of the keen observations made here, only to guide us to a more important meaning.
The losing was correlated to Speed watch, I mean count. He has been picked on and pounded on enough for that. We had to find something new. Multiple rare events and a Billion to one shot gave us that opportunity in spades. Even if Ace said he won 30 in a row people would have been skeptical.Quote: djatcQuote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
I don't know why anyone would post anything about losses at this point. People on this forum have never lost a ton of money gambling and are always quick to criticize you if you do. Trip reports seem like a waste of time if you have a real bad run.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceMy point is that, since you would only tell the story if you had won (and not if you had lost) there is selection bias introduced, which basically makes the premonition part of the story uninteresting, mathematically. So we are left with 1 in 1296.
This selection bias is what makes people believe in stuff like this. People tell the stories about how they bet on something when they had a feeling and won. Nobody tells the stories about the times when they have a feeling, and lose anyway.
That is the only time I have had such a premonition preceding a casino trip.
Sure, when I am standing at the craps table playing I get the occasional urge to make a particular bet (but not props), but that is quite different from basically "dreaming" the scenario, "knowing" when to act, and "concluding" as envisioned.
I see no selection bias in it, as it was purely a "one off, i.e. a "singleton."
Quote: MrVThat is the only time I have had such a premonition preceding a casino trip.
Sure, when I am standing at the craps table playing I get the occasional urge to make a particular bet (but not props), but that is quite different from basically "dreaming" the scenario, "knowing" when to act, and "concluding" as envisioned.
I see no selection bias in it, as it was purely a "one off, i.e. a "singleton."
The fact that you would report the results if the experiment ended one way, but not the other, is what causes the selection bias. The number of trials is not really relevant.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe fact that you would report the results if the experiment ended one way, but not the other, is what causes the selection bias. The number of trials is not really relevant.
I'm not describing an experiment, I am describing an extraordinary event in my gambling life.
Whether or not I would or would not have reported a failure, had one occurred, seems irrelevant as no failure or repeat has happened.
It was and probably always will be a unique experience.
'Twas Churchillian: "A riddle, wrapped in mystery, surrounded by an enigma."
Quote: aceofspadesI am giving up - all of you guys win - you beat me - it never happened.
I am done.
Darn it. I was going to ask if you've ever been absolutely 100% sure of something, then surprised later to find you were wrong.
Quote: aceofspadesThere is also a chance an alien inhabited my body and won a hand then left my body and that memory was erased.
And the alien made a basic strategy error; messed up the flow of the cards. I hate playing with those guys.
Quote: FaceIt's Mendelson's 17 yo's all over again.
Quote: teddys18 yo's!
I kept reading this as 18-year-olds until you added Mendelson. I kept thinking to myself that getting 18-year-olds were hard for me, but I think easier than 1 in a billion...lol
Did we run Alan away over this too? :-/
see ... AlanBestBuys.com forums
win
lose
win
push
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
win
push
win
win
lose
win
lose
win
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
win
win
win
win
Exactly like that. I was so stunned by the time it was over, that it was all I could do to add up the cards. I will likely never experience that sequence of wins and losses for the rest of my life.
The more I think about it, (Occam's Razor and all) it's more likely that at least one of those hands is wrong. Yes, I must have made a mistake. the odds are astronomical.
Quote: MrVI'm not describing an experiment, I am describing an extraordinary event in my gambling life.
Whether or not I would or would not have reported a failure, had one occurred, seems irrelevant as no failure or repeat has happened.
It was and probably always will be a unique experience.
'Twas Churchillian: "A riddle, wrapped in mystery, surrounded by an enigma."
I think that this is just a question of different points of view.
From your point of view, it's remarkable. It happened to you just once.
From my point of view, it's unremarkable. I hear stories like this a lot, and the people who have similar experiences and then lose never tell these stories. For me, you are just one of the people who has chosen to tell the story after seeing the results. Hence, selection bias.
Therefore, the probability should not be in the billion range. Maybe it is in the million range. If it is possible for someone to win the Mega-super lottery, then why it is not possible to lose 20+ hands in a row.
Quote: JimRockfordI hesitate to post this, because no one will believe me, but on my last trip to Vegas my first 30 hands were as follows:
win
lose
win
push
lose
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
win
push
win
win
lose
win
lose
win
win
lose
lose
lose
lose
win
lose
win
win
win
win
I don't doubt your story, but how the hell can you remember the sequence of win, losses, push??
That would be impossible to remember, at least for me.
Did you write them down as they occurred? Track results with chips? How did the pit react to that? Or can you actually remember it?
Quote: HowManyI don't doubt your story, but how the hell can you remember the sequence of win, losses, push??
That would be impossible to remember, at least for me.
Did you write them down as they occurred? Track results with chips? How did the pit react to that? Or can you actually remember it?
His point is that 1 2 3 4 5 6 is just as likely going to be a powerball winner as 1 7 10 22 49 24. In the case of blackjack, it's not exactly the same probability for any random string of 30 outcomes, but close enough.
Leonard: For God’s sake, Sheldon, do I have to hold up a sarcasm sign every time I open my mouth.Quote: HowManyI don't doubt your story, but how the hell can you remember the sequence of win, losses, push??
That would be impossible to remember, at least for me.
Did you write them down as they occurred? Track results with chips? How did the pit react to that? Or can you actually remember it?
Sheldon: You have a sarcasm sign?
Exactly. I made up the sequence.Quote: wudgedHis point is that 1 2 3 4 5 6 is just as likely going to be a powerball winner as 1 7 10 22 49 24. In the case of blackjack, it's not exactly the same probability for any random string of 30 outcomes, but close enough.
It's just that whenever somebody posts the details of long streak, or several hands naming each card, I want to know how the hell they remember all that???
I thought your post was the same as the others.
Quote:I think that this is just a question of different points of view.
From your point of view, it's remarkable. It happened to you just once.
From my point of view, it's unremarkable. I hear stories like this a lot, and the people who have similar experiences and then lose never tell these stories. For me, you are just one of the people who has chosen to tell the story after seeing the results. Hence, selection bias.
Would not your analysis require, sub silentio, that I choose not to report unfavorable results?
How to square that with there being NO other similar occurances?
Can't be "sampling bias" if there is only one sample, can there?
Quote: MrVWould not your analysis require, sub silentio, that I choose not to report unfavorable results?
It requires only that unfavorable results not be reported. That's why I asked you if you would have told the story if you had lost.
Quote:How to square that with there being NO other similar occurances?
Can't be "sampling bias" if there is only one sample, can there?
There are other similar occurrences, just not that happened to you. That's why I said, it was remarkable from your point of view but unremarkable from mine.
And, indeed, there can be sampling bias with only one sample. You have said yourself that your reporting of this story was contingent on you winning the bet. You are, essentially, a vocal minority. If 1296 people had similar experiences, 1295 lost, and one won, but only the person who won reports it to me, that is unremarkable. In fact, it's exactly what's expected -- 1 winner out of 1295 trials. Because only the winners report their experiences, there is no way for me to determine how many losers there are, so it's essentially meaningless from my point of view.
From your point of view, it's 1 success in 1 try. From my point of view, it's 1 success in an unknown number of tries.
I am talking about precognition.
There is a difference.
Quote:The retrospective gambler’s fallacy: Unlikely events, constructing the past, and multiple universes
Daniel M. Oppenheimer*
Princeton University
Benoît Monin
Stanford University
Quote:Three studies demonstrated that people believe that events perceived to be unlikely come from longer sequences than events that seem more probable, a consequence of reasoning retrospectively about random events as though those events were not independent.
http://journal.sjdm.org/9609/jdm9609.html
Quote: aceofspadesDealer just made 6 twenty ones in a row
Guy jumps in midshoe for 3 hands I lose all three and next 5 after
I had 500 up and got 20 dealer pulls a 9 card 21
I switched tables won 5 in a row a guy walking by says "I'm getting in on that" he wins next 4 I lose all 4
I am so out of my game
Just doubled ace 6 v dealer 4 I get a 3 for 20
Dealer goes 4 4 5 ace ace 6
Split aces v dealer 5
She goes 5 5 3 7
But I got a ten on each YAY!!!
Just lost two more doubles
Just lost 7 doubles
Just lost 3 splits and a double
I'm now down 10k again
Honestly how is it possible for every dealer at every table I play at to make every hand against me and for me to lose 99% of my doubles...?!?!?!? It makes no fng sense
I'm about to just step in front of a bus
You mentioned mid shoe. Was this all at the six deck game? This was an incredibly bad run. Six 21s in a row. A nine card 21. A seven card 21. Eleven lost doubles. Three lost splits. What was the count during this exchange?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIt doesn't matter who was there. If we take everything that you have claimed at face value, then there are two possibilities:
1. You lost 30 hands in a row
2. You made an error somewhere (missed a dealer error, or miscounted the number of hands, or forgot about a push)
What probability do you assign to option #2? You think that it's less than 1 in a billion?
Suppose that you would only make an error like that 1 time in a thousand (and, IMO, that is extremely generous -- no one's memory is that good). Then there is still a 99.9999% chance that you did not lose 30 hands in a row.
So, no, I am not absolutely sure that you are wrong. I am only 99.9999% sure that you are wrong. I admit that there is, perhaps, a 0.0001% chance that you are correct.
The reason that we are coming to different conclusions is that you seem to believe that you are infallible, and are therefore assigning a probability of 0 to event #2. I, on the other hand, believe that everyone makes mistakes sometimes, and therefore assign a non-zero probability to event #2.
In case nobody said so, this is an excellent exercise in logic.
I think AOS blocked this threadQuote: odiousgambitIn case nobody said so, this is an excellent exercise in logic.
Quote: AxelWolfI think AOS blocked this thread
It is his prerogative but I hope it's not the case.
Quote: aceofspadesI'll just leave this here:
Haha.
Well it looks like Matt Damon is mistaken or exaggerating.
Quote: sodawaterQuote: aceofspadesI'll just leave this here:
Haha.
Well it looks like Matt Damon is mistaken or exaggerating.
Nothing like this can EVER happen to anyone I guess
…but the universe can come into existence…?
Why poke the bear? I thought the entire reason you self suspended/nuked was due to this thread. Things were almost forgotten. Why stir the pot? 30 VS 25 is significant. George could have been hitting 20's for all we know.Quote: aceofspadesQuote: sodawaterQuote: aceofspadesI'll just leave this here:
Haha.
Well it looks like Matt Damon is mistaken or exaggerating.
Nothing like this can EVER happen to anyone I guess
…but the universe can come into existence…?
Quote: AxelWolfWhy poke the bear? I thought the entire reason you self suspended/nuked was due to this thread. Things were almost forgotten. Why stir the pot? 30 VS 25 is significant. George could have been hitting 20's for all we know.Quote: aceofspadesQuote: sodawaterQuote: aceofspadesI'll just leave this here:
Haha.
Well it looks like Matt Damon is mistaken or exaggerating.
Nothing like this can EVER happen to anyone I guess
…but the universe can come into existence…?
I am not poking the bear - I am merely showing someone else who had something similar to me happening (and this happened at one table to him)
Quote: djatcGeorge Clooney needs to stop being so smug, save the environment and stop taking dealer bust cards!
You can say that again.
I doubt MR Damon sat and counted every hand properly (did he count pushes). Also as I pointed out(Matt kind of suggests this ) GC may not know how to play a lick, he could ave been playing like a complete drunk donkey, IE splitting 10 10 vs A, hitting 16 vs dealers 6. 30 and in a row is not 25, some one else will need to do the math. Are we assuming Matt is more credible then you? Because, He thinks 25 is a record. Next time I see Matt, I will tell him you broke GC record.Quote: aceofspadesQuote: AxelWolfWhy poke the bear? I thought the entire reason you self suspended/nuked was due to this thread. Things were almost forgotten. Why stir the pot? 30 VS 25 is significant. George could have been hitting 20's for all we know.Quote: aceofspadesQuote: sodawaterQuote: aceofspadesI'll just leave this here:
Haha.
Well it looks like Matt Damon is mistaken or exaggerating.
Nothing like this can EVER happen to anyone I guess
…but the universe can come into existence…?
I am not poking the bear - I am merely showing someone else who had something similar to me happening (and this happened at one table to him)
