Vegas Vacation with AOS
But Dicenor's comments were out of line, not jus the one he got whacked for but he made one or two previous to that as well.....what's worse is, he isn't even a blackjack player but rather a Baccarat boy as far as I can tell?
Some people just need to be heard I guess. They have a name for those people.....trolls :)
ace, I'm glad you made it out of Vegas alive dude and you are now better prepared for whatever choices you decide to make moving forward.
Something I was thinking about and Kewlj touched on it was that in all probability, no matter what the count system he used, he would have been spanked.
Then we also should ask, even if he used Hi/Lo, would his minimum bet have been any less than his starting $100? Would his maximum bet have been any more than $500? That would still only give him a 5 unit spread which is at best a break-even game even with good rules and Hi/Lo?
Still, learn Hi/Lo, even just for fun. Prove to yourself and others you can do it!!!
I will still be reading your next trip report no matter what :)
Quote: aceofspadesI have two more hours here...debating a final run at making something happen............
You could hit the airport slot machines.
Quote: TomspurSomething I was thinking about and Kewlj touched on it was that in all probability, no matter what the count system he used, he would have been spanked.
That is true, but the question is, how badly? Maybe he would have had a smaller bet out for some of those losing hands, and a bigger bet out for the winning ones. Maybe he would have been down $14k instead of $15k. And maybe he would have been up an extra few thousand over the course of the year. So maybe he would be slightly up for the year instead of slightly down. And that's what it's all about -- the total results
Quote:Then we also should ask, even if he used Hi/Lo, would his minimum bet have been any less than his starting $100? Would his maximum bet have been any more than $500? That would still only give him a 5 unit spread which is at best a break-even game even with good rules and Hi/Lo?
1-5 is plenty for that good DD game.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat is true, but the question is, how badly? Maybe he would have had a smaller bet out for some of those losing hands, and a bigger bet out for the winning ones. Maybe he would have been down $14k instead of $15k. And maybe he would have been up an extra few thousand over the course of the year. So maybe he would be slightly up for the year instead of slightly down. And that's what it's all about -- the total results
1-5 is plenty for that good DD game.
But, we still know ace's mins and max bets so why would he change just because he uses a different count system?
Remember he has to maintain a certain average bet in order to keep his FBR coming?
I thought you needed a 1-8 spread for that game (penetration dependent of course)?
Quote: mickeycrimmAce, I apologize for being so mean spirited last night. Black Velvet was doing all the talking.
Some times Black Velvet lets you say what you are otherwise too polite to say. I finally figured Ace out. He reminds me of the "holiday" shooters that would come in the poolroom in late 50's and 60's. Usually college boys on 4th July weekend, Christmas break, etc. Two
pieces cues in a wooden case, playing 8 ball, and using peripheral vision to see who was watching them. Could shoot a little, but only a little. Any decent player would spot them the 5 & 7 in 9 ball. But they never played for money.
That's Ace. If the money was really important, why would he use a speed count ? He is down about 2.5K for last 2 years. Had lots of fun and comps during that time. Plus entertains us with his reports. Don't expect him to learn a real count. Just not worth his time and effort. NO!!!! I don't think he would have had a winning trip with a better count . But he would have lost less, and been up more over the past 2 years. He talks about dealer having 3BJ and several 20's off the top in 5 or 6 hands, then he loses a Double Down. Why the hell was he still there in a DD game?
Have fun Ace, I will enjoy reading your trip reports.
And remember what I always say " Don't take it personal ".
Quote: TomspurI thought you needed a 1-8 spread for that game (penetration dependent of course)?
Good to know :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceGood to know :)
I wasn't telling, more like asking. I'm no pro :)
Quote: BuzzardSome times Black Velvet lets you say what you are otherwise too polite to say. I finally figured Ace out. He reminds me of the "holiday" shooters that would come in the poolroom in late 50's and 60's. Usually college boys on 4th July weekend, Christmas break, etc. Two
pieces cues in a wooden case, playing 8 ball, and using peripheral vision to see who was watching them. Could shoot a little, but only a little. Any decent player would spot them the 5 & 7 in 9 ball. But they never played for money.
That's Ace. If the money was really important, why would he use a speed count ? He is down about 2.5K for last 2 years. Had lots of fun and comps during that time. Plus entertains us with his reports. Don't expect him to learn a real count. Just not worth his time and effort. NO!!!! I don't think he would have had a winning trip with a better count . But he would have lost less, and been up more over the past 2 years. He talks about dealer having 3BJ and several 20's off the top in 5 or 6 hands, then he loses a Double Down. Why the hell was he still there in a DD game?
Have fun Ace, I will enjoy reading your trip reports.
And remember what I always say " Don't take it personal ".
Buzz do you enjoy my trip reports or only the "ace got destroyed" trip reports?
Quote: BuzzardNO!!!! I don't think he would have had a winning trip with a better count . But he would have lost less, and been up more over the past 2 years.
Words of wisdom from Buzz...
Always remember that long-term results are what's important, not short-term swings. Whether he would have lost anyway on this trip is not the right question to be asking.
Quote: TomspurI wasn't telling, more like asking. I'm no pro :)
Not quite what I meant :)
Quote: aceofspadesBuzz do you enjoy my trip reports or only the "ace got destroyed" trip reports?
Make no mistake, Ace, the people who are telling you to dump speed count are the people who want you to win. The people who don't care what count you use are the people who don't care if you win or lose.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceMake no mistake, Ace, the people who are telling you to dump speed count are the people who want you to win. The people who don't care what count you use are the people who don't care if you win or lose.
Much obliged
I think I did call you a crybaby in this thread, but well, I am awaiting my suspension for that as we speak !
Quote: BuzzardCRY BABY !
I also asked about a round trip ticket, just in case. Posted before your plane even landed in Las Vegas.
Speed Count, Insufficient Bankroll, just a question of when.
The only person that can change that is named Aceofspades ! ! !
Quote: BuzzardI also asked about a round trip ticket, just in case. Posted before your plane even landed in Las Vegas.
Speed Count, Insufficient Bankroll, just a question of when.
The only person that can change that is named Aceofspades ! ! !
Always a round trip ticket Buzz and I never bet my last dollar
I am heading out shortly and decided I would try my luck in AC upon my return. Perhaps a change of scenery will do me good and I can began he climb back out of the abyss as I did last year around this time
Quote: aceofspadesAlways a round trip ticket Buzz and I never bet my last dollar
I am heading out shortly and decided I would try my luck in AC upon my return. Perhaps a change of scenery will do me good and I can began he climb back out of the abyss as I did last year around this time
Will be good to go home to AC, ace!
Quote: sodawaterWill be good to go home to AC, ace!
Thanks Sodawater will you be around?
I will try to post a TR if I am in AC this weekend as well
Quote: bj4funAce thanks for the trip reports - sorry this one didn't work out for you - but win or lose its always a pleasure reading your reports
Thank you I am ecstatic my lil trip report could engender almost 60 pages
I am going to have to read through the entire thread once I have some distance (geographically, emotionally and financially) from the insanity (yes, I used the word insanity again)
Quote:I never bet my last dollar
Perhaps not LITERALLY, but when you went to the ATM for more, well, that is knocking on the door.
At least it would be for me, as I've never use an ATM in my life.
Damned newfangled inventions.
Back in my day, we brought our money to the casinos in our wallets and money belts and we liked it!
Quote: MrVPerhaps not LITERALLY, but when you went to the ATM for more, well, that is knocking on the door.
At least it would be for me, as I've never use an ATM in my life.
Damned newfangled inventions.
Back in my day, we brought our money to the casinos in our wallets and money belts and we liked it!
Excellent Dana Carvey
Quote: aceofspadesThank you I am ecstatic my lil trip report could engender almost 60 pages
I am going to have to read through the entire thread once I have some distance (geographically, emotionally and financially) from the insanity (yes, I used the word insanity again)
INSANITY Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result
Speed Count + Insufficient Bankroll = LOSER
SC+IB=L for the math buys.
Heck, he was up for the year using SC before his Las Vegas debacle.
Quote: BuzzardINSANITY Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result
Speed Count + Insufficient Bankroll = LOSER
SC+IB=L for the math buys.
I knew you would write something along these lines
Quote: MrVYou're being a bit harsh.
Heck, he was up for the year using SC before his Las Vegas debacle.
-2.5k after two years is not exactly a great success for any AP. But like I said before, Ace is a holiday shooter. Look handsome at the table, but as far as counting goes, merely entertaining his followers.
Quote: Buzzard-2.5k after two years is not exactly a great success for any AP. But like I said before, Ace is a holiday shooter. Look handsome at the table, but as far as counting goes, merely entertaining his followers.
Where is this -2.5k amount coming from?
And how many hours of play would you estimate you had at BJ this trip ?
Intelligent minds want to know. And me too.
Quote: BuzzardI thought you said you were down 15k which made you even for the last 2 years ? Then you made phone calls to finally get another 2.5K from the ATM/. That was last I read. Feel free to correct me.
And how many hours of play would you estimate you had at BJ this trip ?
Intelligent minds want to know. And me too.
Said I was up 12k THIS YEAR
I probably played 32 hours
Now down 5500
Quote: kewljmickey, we are going to have to attach a breathalizer to your computer. Lol.
I figure that every computer should have a built in Breathalyzer. If you don't blown clean you can't get through the password screen.
I don't know ace's exact situation but I can imagine he still has not had many losing sessions, therefore each one is going to get easier to deal with after the first one, as I have gone through. The big factor in emotions playing a part is the bet size relative to bankroll, but there are exceptions. I've done certain plays where we could NOT lose, but was weary on investing the money because in the slight chance we don't get paid we'd get screwed.
Quote: Buzzard32 hours at a bj table this trip or year to date ?
This trip
Some mathematical ramblings on risk:Quote: aceofspadesSaid I was up 12k THIS YEAR
I probably played 32 hours
Now down 5500
32 hours @ 100 hph = 3200 hands. SD = 1.15 per hand. So overall SD (assuming flat $200 bet) is sqrt(3200)*200*1.15 = $13010. Assuming you are playing at a 0% house edge (a break even game), your result of losing $17,500 is 1.35 standard deviations below expectation. This result or worse should occur about 8.93% of the time.
Any bet spread (like $100 to $500) with an average of $200 would increase the SD, making your loss more likely. If your game pace is faster, then your loss is more likely. The upshot is that your result is about a 1-in-11 event based on the conservative assumptions above. With more information, a better estimate could be made.
All that "hope" leading up to the big trip is dashed in an instant on the rocky shoals of the casinos.
One likes to think "Hey, Las Vegas! Yeah, baby! I'm gonna rock this town!"
Quote: aceofspadesLANDED IN NY!!!
Man, you really do have bad luck, huh?
;)
The city so nice they named it twice ;-)Quote: FaceMan, you really do have bad luck, huh?
;)
Quote: teliotSome mathematical ramblings on risk:
32 hours @ 100 hph = 3200 hands. SD = 1.15 per hand. So overall SD (assuming flat $200 bet) is sqrt(3200)*200*1.15 = $13010. Assuming you are playing at a 0% house edge (a break even game), your result of losing $17,500 is 1.35 standard deviations below expectation. This result or worse should occur about 8.93% of the time.
Any bet spread (like $100 to $500) with an average of $200 would increase the SD, making your loss more likely. If your game pace is faster, then your loss is more likely. The upshot is that your result is about a 1-in-11 event based on the conservative assumptions above. With more information, a better estimate could be made.
You know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot. Earlier in my career, on another site, when I was still a little more emotional about the big swings, I posted about a particularly difficult downswing. One of the "math guys" responded just as you have above. Formulas and equations and estimated guesses at SD and came to the conclusion that the streak I had just experienced was likely to occur about 1.5% of the time. I never got how that helped me? It just did happen. I WAS that 1.5% of the time. (some body has to be). It just didn't make me feel any better knowing that what I just experienced was rare and unlikely. My bankroll was still down just the same.
Now figuring out the likelihood of such a losing period BEFORE hand or BEFORE a trip, that could be useful. Could help you prepare and determine what funds to bring. But AFTER the fact? I just don't see that as useful. Maybe you math guys just can't help yourselves. :)
Quote: kewlj
Now figuring out the likelihood of such a losing period BEFORE hand or BEFORE a trip, that could be useful. Could help you prepare and determine what funds to bring. But AFTER the fact? I just don't see that as useful. Maybe you math guys just can't help yourselves. :)
If I took a shellacking, I'd want to know how likely it is to happen again. Ace's results were 8.93%. Maybe that's low enough for him to risk it again. Maybe that way higher than imagined and he'll avoid it at all costs.
All info has value. You just gotta find it.
Don't the casinos hire x high end professional crooks who now run their security departments?
Aren't many of the pit crews watching these games better counters then many that chat here?
Don't the casinos review tapes watching the type of action a player gave after kicking their ass?
Don't the casinos pay attention to everyone (especially consistent winners) and everything that happens 24/7?
Can the casinos read every book, every system, and every forum out there like everyone else to stay current also?
When all these professional counters constantly kick their asses and are asked to leave and get entered into the data base do you guys start dressing up like Dolly Parton?
Quote: 4ofaKindCorrect me if I'm wrong please.
Don't the casinos hire x high end professional crooks who now run their security departments?
Aren't many of the pit crews watching these games better counters then many that chat here?
Don't the casinos review tapes watching the type of action a player gave after kicking their ass?
Don't the casinos pay attention to everyone (especially consistent winners) and everything that happens 24/7?
Can the casinos read every book, every system, and every forum out there like everyone else to stay current also?
When all these professional counters constantly kick their asses and are asked to leave and get entered into the data base do you guys start dressing up like Dolly Parton?
No.
LOL! No.
Usually.
No.
Some, probably not near all.
She's an angel =)
Quote: kewljYou know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot. Earlier in my career, on another site, when I was still a little more emotional about the big swings, I posted about a particularly difficult downswing. One of the "math guys" responded just as you have above. Formulas and equations and estimated guesses at SD and came to the conclusion that the streak I had just experienced was likely to occur about 1.5% of the time. I never got how that helped me? It just did happen. I WAS that 1.5% of the time. (some body has to be). It just didn't make me feel any better knowing that what I just experienced was rare and unlikely. My bankroll was still down just the same.
The point isn't that someone has to be, it's that's you have to be, on 1.5% of your trips.
And, by the way, a bottom 10% trip isn't particularly unlucky. Especially when you go 10 times per year.
Quote: FaceNo.
LOL! No.
Usually.
No.
Some, probably not near all.
She's an angel =)
Would it be safe to assume based on your answers that the casinos are not that concerned about counters, since I guess they know when it's happening and most won't get away with consistent success once their tagged.
Quote: 4ofaKindWould it be safe to assume based on your answers that the casinos are not that concerned about counters, since I guess they know when it's happening and most won't get away with consistent success once their tagged.
I think that very, very few casinos have a single person who actually understands the game working for them.
Quote: hook3670Ace I do have to ask, you are quite close to Atlantic City which has good and comparable BJ rules. Did you travel to Vegas just to gamble or enjoy everything else Vegas has to offer that most other places cant? Obviously all the losing does take its toll on having fun, but maybe use Vegas as more of a vacation destination and save you business gambling for A/C. Besides losing all the money, which does suck, I have done that my last two trips, it sounds like you spent airfare and time to fly all the way across the country for a mini-vacation and you are more upset after then before you left.
Yeah I had planned to go on the High Roller...the Mob Museum...see David Copperfield...try the Lion's Share...and eat at my favorite restaurant in the world Delmonico steakhouse at the Venetian...meet up with the Gronks...and none of that occurred because I deprive myself when losing
Quote: aceofspadesYeah I had planned to go on the High Roller...the Mob Museum...see David Copperfield...try the Lion's Share...and eat at my favorite restaurant in the world Delmonico steakhouse at the Venetian...meet up with the Gronks...and none of that occurred because I deprive myself when losing
Dude, that's so wrong!
Heck, you NEED to be coddled and entertained when you are down and out.
Your attitude seems akin to almost self-loathing / wearing a shirt made of hair if you lose.
Just so wrong, in so many ways.
We are the captain of our own ship: would you ever mutiny against yourself?
Quote: MrVDude, that's so wrong!
Heck, you NEED to be coddled and entertained when you are down and out.
Your attitude seems akin to almost self-loathing / wearing a shirt made of hair if you lose.
Just so wrong, in so many ways.
We are the captain of our own ship: would you ever mutiny against yourself?
I know I do it whenever I lose - I feel I am undeserving of good things when I lose.
