Thread Rating:

Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
March 17th, 2014 at 10:14:28 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Yes, the casino I play at - has 4 casino's - 1 of the 4 is smoke free. I would most definately play at a smoking table if it is real good penetration with no other similiar tables with less smoking - I'm saying I would just first look for the smoke free tables and tables where only 1 or 2 people are smoking as opposed to everybody smoking first. Thats all.



True true. I did it for a while, but the idea of using my poker time for blackjack is just blah to me.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 4477
March 17th, 2014 at 11:56:57 AM permalink
So what if you lose your credit card balance transfer money, and have no other way of getting funds? It could happen since card counting has such a small edge.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
March 17th, 2014 at 12:04:15 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

There is an upfront 4% transfer balance fee - so instead of owing $20,000 in 15 months - I will owe $20,800. The fee's usually vary from 0%-6%. The credit card company's are betting on that you dont pay the loan back on time - so they can hit you with ridiculously high APR interest rates.



Are you sure that there are not minimum monthly payments? I used to pay these games back when interest rates were high and I had more time than money. There was always a minimum monthly payment. If you factor the payments in, the length of the loan is essentially reduced and it turns out that it was not that good of a deal to begin with.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
March 17th, 2014 at 12:13:16 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Sonuvabish - I hear what your saying. I still am not sure how you get a 40% - 20% rate of ruin? With a 40,000 bankroll - a min $25 bet - and $400 max bet - how can this be? Using the calculators - it is telling me around 2% risk of ruin. Remember - I will not be playing these limits until I have almost mastered card counting. I am currently in the practice mode. I am practicing at home - timing myself counting down a deck - 1 card at a time - 2 card pairs at a time - and will do 3 cards at a time soon. I am slowly but surely getting my feet wet at the tables playing a min bet of $10 and not deviating from that $10 bet - unless the true count gets above +12 where I am going up to $20 - $30 $40. I am currently studying the indexes.



There are events that are not counted in that "risk of ruin" that you should probably count as ruin.

For example, suppose that after 15 months, you are down $30k. You are not "ruined", according to the risk of ruin calculation. But you owe the bank $20k and you have $10k left. Now what? Start paying 18% interest? 22%? What does the credit card rate revert to after 18 months? You are completely screwed in this situation. If you keep the $10k and try to make a comeback -- good luck. You are paying $400/month in interest. That is more than you can expect to make with a $10k bankroll. If you pay the $10k you have left to the bank, you are now bankrupt -- you owe $10k and have no money to pay it back, and you can't make money at blackjack without a bankroll.

A loan is not a bankroll, and a loan with an expiration date is ESPECIALLY not a bankroll. You have no idea what you are doing. You are trying to grind out a 1% edge but you are not considering the swings. What are you going to do when you are down $10k? Reduce your max bet? Or play on with a much larger risk of ruin?

The bottom line is that if you are down more than $20k after 15 months you are in ruined. So, your bankroll is in no way $40k.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 17th, 2014 at 12:53:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Are you sure that there are not minimum monthly payments? I used to pay these games back when interest rates were high and I had more time than money. There was always a minimum monthly payment. If you factor the payments in, the length of the loan is essentially reduced and it turns out that it was not that good of a deal to begin with.



Yes there are minimum payments. My first minimum payment is $312, and will decrease every month thereafter until the 15 months ends.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
March 17th, 2014 at 12:55:18 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

There are events that are not counted in that "risk of ruin" that you should probably count as ruin.

For example, suppose that after 15 months, you are down $30k. You are not "ruined", according to the risk of ruin calculation. But you owe the bank $20k and you have $10k left. Now what? Start paying 18% interest? 22%? What does the credit card rate revert to after 18 months? You are completely screwed in this situation. If you keep the $10k and try to make a comeback -- good luck. You are paying $400/month in interest. That is more than you can expect to make with a $10k bankroll. If you pay the $10k you have left to the bank, you are now bankrupt -- you owe $10k and have no money to pay it back, and you can't make money at blackjack without a bankroll.

A loan is not a bankroll, and a loan with an expiration date is ESPECIALLY not a bankroll. You have no idea what you are doing. You are trying to grind out a 1% edge but you are not considering the swings. What are you going to do when you are down $10k? Reduce your max bet? Or play on with a much larger risk of ruin?

The bottom line is that if you are down more than $20k after 15 months you are in ruined. So, your bankroll is in no way $40k.



This advice can literally save his life.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
March 17th, 2014 at 12:58:13 PM permalink
Why not just grind out 40k in poker and use that for blackjack? It'll take a while, but it's all yours and there aren't any fees to pay back. Blackjack will be there.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
stabworld
stabworld
Joined: Mar 10, 2014
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 297
March 17th, 2014 at 1:02:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

There are events that are not counted in that "risk of ruin" that you should probably count as ruin.

For example, suppose that after 15 months, you are down $30k. You are not "ruined", according to the risk of ruin calculation. But you owe the bank $20k and you have $10k left. Now what? Start paying 18% interest? 22%? What does the credit card rate revert to after 18 months? You are completely screwed in this situation. If you keep the $10k and try to make a comeback -- good luck. You are paying $400/month in interest. That is more than you can expect to make with a $10k bankroll. If you pay the $10k you have left to the bank, you are now bankrupt -- you owe $10k and have no money to pay it back, and you can't make money at blackjack without a bankroll.

A loan is not a bankroll, and a loan with an expiration date is ESPECIALLY not a bankroll. You have no idea what you are doing. You are trying to grind out a 1% edge but you are not considering the swings. What are you going to do when you are down $10k? Reduce your max bet? Or play on with a much larger risk of ruin?

The bottom line is that if you are down more than $20k after 15 months you are in ruined. So, your bankroll is in no way $40k.



Can we please assume going forward - that my bankroll of 40k is not a loan and is replenish-able. I started this thread to get advice on betting spreads - table mins - and rate of ruin calculations with a given bankroll. This thread has turned into financial advice - which I do not need. I am well aware of the possibility of losing 20k before 15 months is up. If that happens I again - WILL BE ABLE TO PAY IT BACK BY OTHER MEANS". I should have never mentioned at any point during this thread how I obtained the 40k bankroll as all the posts are related to it and not the original intentions I wanted this thread to be about (table spreads - min betting..etc.)

Please people - all I am looking for is a solid plan to hit the blackjack tables given a 40k bankroll as far as :

1. Table min bet
2. Max bet
3. Betting spread
4. Risk of Ruin on the above 3.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
March 17th, 2014 at 1:59:07 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Yes there are minimum payments. My first minimum payment is $312, and will decrease every month thereafter until the 15 months ends.



You understand that you paid $12.48 to borrow that $312 for a month, right?
geoff
geoff
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 368
March 17th, 2014 at 2:08:10 PM permalink
The short answer to all four of your questions is: it depends. What game you are play, where you are playing, and even why you are playing all influence these answers. Spreading 1-4 at the El Cortez has gotten people kicked out for counting before where at some places you can spread 1-30 and no one questions it. I haven't read the entire thread so I don't know what your goal is, but most counters who plan to make a living on blackjack do so with a risk of ruin at essentially 0 so they can live off the proceeds. Remember that most risk of ruin calculations are made based on the proceeds being funneled back into your bankroll. If you take them out to pay living expenses you are using a different calculation.

For the sake of giving you a general answer here is one for 6 deck DAS, H17, Surrender, RSA, full indices (this means best case scenario), 75% pen, at half-kelly:
1. See spread.
2. See spread.
3. Spread is 25-400 (1-16 is a pretty general spread for a 6 deck shoe)
4. Risk of ruin is 2.5%

For most counters this is far too high of a RoR if they do not have a replenishable bankroll. If you wanted to do it for a living you would probably want:
10-160 spread at essentially 0 (.03%) RoR. The pay off from that is less than half of the above spread however.

  • Jump to: