Brand New Counter - $40,000 bankroll - What should be my bet spread and at what table minimum?
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
Quote: stabworldHello card counters,
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
Tell us the rules of the games and the count you are using. Are you wonging and/or using index play?
While we wait for that, the 40k is borderline for a 1-16 spread on the 8 deck game and a 1-8 spread on the double deck. I hope you'll say that you wong when possible and have learned at least the basic index plays.
Do you want to maximize your profit in a short-time? Or you want to optimize the total profit in a long period.
Simple advice will be to avoid the $50 table because I already know that you are over-betting your bankroll without even punching in the numbers.
More importantly, do you have the personality to handle the loss, which can last for months?
-(8 deck game)
-between 60-75% penetration
-blackjack pays 3-2
-doubling allowed on any first 2 cards
-doubling after split allowed (except aces)
-dealer stands on all 17's
-can split any pair (up to 4 times) except aces
-late surrender allowed
-(2 deck game)
- not sure of all these rules yet but I know
-stand on all 17
-late surrender offered
I would not be wonging in or backcounting - but would leave table if negative count gets too high towards end of shoe.
As far as indexing - that's new to me but most likely would utilize that strategy.
I would be using the HI-Lo count initially -(as this is the count I have been practicing and familiar with)
I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
Quote: stabworldHello card counters,
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
In my opinion:
1. Wong out aggressively to increase your win rate.
2. You need a higher max bet to make any real money. With a $250 max bet on an 8-deck game you are not making very much. IMO, you need to be willing to go up to $500 at the very least before blackjack is worthwhile (unless you have non-counting ways to get larger edges).
3a. You need a bigger bankroll (see #2).
3b. Always remember that playing 2 hands of half the size reduces variance but leaves your edge the same. eg, 2x$250 has the same edge as a $500 hand but only has the bankroll requirements of a $350 or $400 hand.
3c. Why are you comfortable with a 2% risk of ruin? 2% is not that unlikely. If I was making a living off of this, a 2% risk of ruin would scare the hell out of me.
4. Cover is overrated. This is controversial and many people who make a living doing this, and have a lot more experience than I do, disagree, so I accept that I may be wrong. It's still my opinion, though.
Quote: stabworldI am located in New York - and frequent Foxwoods a lot - I go there 3 days a week (to play poker) - Mohegan Sun is right next door - and I also visit Sands in PA on Mondays (to play poker tournaments)..
I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
The rules you gave were for Sands and not Foxwoods. Am I right?
Quote: stabworldI am located in New York - and frequent Foxwoods a lot - I go there 3 days a week (to play poker) - Mohegan Sun is right next door - and I also visit Sands in PA on Mondays (to play poker tournaments)..
I want to optimize the total profit long term.. Not looking for a short term get rich quick scheme. I would like to dedicate 20 hours a week - 1,000 hours a year. I do have the personality to handle the loss even for months.
I don't know much about the casinos in those area. Maybe some other forum members can tell you about how much heat you would get in the DD game there. The rules in the DD game look very good so far but you need to find out about the penetration. If the penetration is only around 50%, then I would rather play the 8 decks. The rules are important but don't forget the other important factors, which are the penetration and the speed of the game. Usually, I try to find the less crowded table and the dealers who give better penetration. In the DD game, the usual spread is 1 to 8 and 1 to 16 in the 8 deck game. Also, try not chase losses in one casino. If you lose big in one casino, go somewhere else to balance out the actions. Otherwise, you are the guy that always win or break-even and your 86 day is coming much sooner.
Quote: 1BBThere is no double deck blackjack in Connecticut. I'm not sure if stabworld thinks there may be or if he is talking about somewhere else.
I've never seen a double deck game here, either. It'd have to be shoe-dealt, which would be weird.
By the way..appreciate all the feedback I am getting so quickly ....
Quote: stabworldThe rules for the 8 card deck was for foxwoods.. the 2 deck was for Sands.. I haven't personally seen the double deck game at Sands.. and am going off of what somebody else posted in another forum.. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/11128-best-pa-blackjack-game/ I am going to Sands tonight however...and will search for this game.. I heard it is $50 min.according to the other forum.. will report back to let everybody know if it is there or not.
By the way..appreciate all the feedback I am getting so quickly ....
A couple of corrections on the Foxwoods 8 deck game.
The dealer must hit soft 17 and the penetration is closer to 85%.
Quote: 1BBA couple of corrections on the Foxwoods 8 deck game.
The dealer must hit soft 17 and the penetration is closer to 85%.
Ok ..thanks for the correction.... the 85% penetration sounds a lot better... even though they must hit on soft 17...
So still haven't found a good min bet and spread. suggestions for this 8 deck game using hi/lo - index play - 40k bankroll?
Now after hearing I should use a bigger spread for an 8 deck .. I'm thinking $25 min bet .1-16 spread...? $25- $400 max bet.. i'll have 1,600 min bet units and 100 max bet units ..what would be the rate of ruin on this? and what would be my average bet $50? or $75? could I expect to make $50 - $75 per hour averaging 100 hands per hour with a 1% player advantage edge?
Quote: IbeatyouracesThere are csm's in PA.
I know Valley Forge is all shoe games, and I'm 90% sure Harrah's is too. I can't think of where a CSM would be at Sands, either. Is it mostly in the Western part of the state where the CSMs are in play? If I didn't hate Parx and Hollywood, would I see CSMs at those places?
I just read the PA GCB's regs. There's about a dozen pages of what to do if dealing "except with a continuous shuffler" and 0 pages of codified procedures for when a CSM is in use. I thought they disallowed CSM use, but after actually reading (ok, yeah...skimming) them, it's more like they just don't regulate the crap out of CSM-based games like they do with tables that require two sets of cards, shuffle procedures, cut procedures, etc., etc., etc.
Quote: stabworldI'm thinking $25 min bet .1-16 spread...? $25- $400 max bet.
Again, you are over-betting your bankroll. Can you find $10 or $15 game with the similar rules?
Remember that the fluctuation in blackjack is huge.
Perhaps this is a good excuse to use: become some petulant smoke-hater who argues about smoking rather than betting near the end of a shoe. And just happens to have the smoke most bother him at negative shoes.Quote: Lemieux66Make sure you have a tolerance for cigarette smoke. Even in the non-smoking areas the air quality isn't nearly as good as in the poker room. Oh and you WILL be playing by smokers if the penetration is good so be ready for that.
I do not see why this is overbetting his bankroll. Too great a chance of initial loss?
For a variety of reasons, I don't think you can make a living at blackjack playing solely in Connecticut. To have any longevity at all you will have to travel to avoid heat and to seek better games.
Although the Foxwoods 8 deck game is beatable, I feel that it would take considerably more than a 1-16 spread to realize any appreciable profit and that brings us back to longevity.
I don't think straight counting is enough these days. Today's counter must be flexible and willing to explore other AP opportunities.
Now for the boring things that many want to pass over in their rush to the tables to apply their new found skills. This is where I ask everyone to pump the brakes just a little. Learn basic strategy cold. Most swear that they know it and they may even think that they know it. They do not. Knowing 90% or 95% will not cut it. If the commitment cannot be made to learn this simple first step, there is no need to continue.
Basic strategy is not one size fits all. Learn the strategy for the games you are going to play. If you are considering Foxwoods, for example, there are six basic strategy changes for H17. They are important. Do not sit at a table until you know them. It is perfectly acceptable to print out a strategy card to bring to the table as long as you don't slow the game down or cause any other disruptions.
Learn index play and wonging. Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4. They are all the play variations you will need for now. Avoid playing in negative shoes as much as possible.
My thoughts are: play at Mohegan rather than Foxwoods (favorable grandfather laws, 6D instead of 8, S17 instead of H17, nicer in general, all at the expense of an additional 5-10% penetration at Foxwoods); play head-to-head when possible (when off-peak ask for the $10 tables to be bumped to $25 and play that), and also consider the $50 table if you care about status and points. Red-chip at first if you want to practice, but move quickly to green/black because the gains would otherwise be way too slow.
Playing everyday 8h a day in the same place -- even a monstrously large casino like Mohegan -- is probably too risky. Take breaks, ranging from hours to weeks long, and be aware of pit critters hovering above your table or around the phone. At MS, I've found that the place is so busy and the pit bosses have so much to do that you won't get undue attention unless in the black/purple betting range.
Slack
Quote: stabworldHello card counters,
I would like to ask some advice from experienced counters. I am new to counting - have been practicing at home. Over the last 13 years I have played blackjack recreationally and never had a clue that there could have been counters sitting next to me. I have always just played blackjack to blow off some steam after running bad at poker (which I play for a living currently) using basic strategy.
So here is the deal - with a $40,000 bankroll. I would like to get advice on a solid bet spread and table minimum with a risk of ruin under 5% - ideally 1-2% I would be comfortable with. I was thinking maybe making my minimum betting unit $25 with eighter a 1-8 spread or 1-10 spread, maybe even a 1-12 spread. This would be on an 8 deck game. Also for a DD game - there is a $50 minimum bet - I was thinking using eighter a 1-6 or 1-8 spread with this.
What do you all think?
Any advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
In my experience, 80% of all players think they are better strategists than I am because gamblers leave their common sense in their car, sometimes with their small children. So my advice is to learn perfect basic strategy for your particular game as well as you know how to drive or ride a bike. Afterwards, you can begin counting at a table. During the initial phase, your maximum bet should be the table minimum. When you are counting for real, your maximum bet should be no more than double the table minimum.
I also disagree with a couple posters here. The Illustrious 18 is enough to get started, and it's a good ranking of order to learn indices in, but you must learn more. Additionally, 400 max is much too large for 40K unless you are maxing betting proportionally to the count and maxing at ultra-high counts.
Quote: SonuvabishWhen you are counting for real, your maximum bet should be no more than double the table minimum.
Huh?
1. Start off with the KO count. This is described in the 'KO Blackjack' book by as well as 'The Color of Blackjack'. The index plays are easier for this count. There is no true count conversion needed. A basic bet ramp is discussed that works really well. With this count and 10 hours or so of practice you should be able to hit the casino and have an edge from your very first day of playing. Learn the index plays in order of importance, starting with insurance and 10v6 and move down the list. Start with 5-6 of the regular index plays and 1-2 of the surrender index plays and leave it at that. Add a few plays over the next few weeks until you have at least the illustrious 18 and the fab 4 surrender plays memorized. I promise you will be happier with the KO count than starting off with Hi-Lo. The first 3-5 sessions with hi-lo in a real casino are exhausting in my experience. With one less step to decide on betting and playing decisions you will find you can play quickly and accurately with KO.
2. For an 8 deck game you will need to spread pretty aggressively. 1-12 would be a good start: less than that will make your win rate relative to blackjack's variance too small for comfort. With your bankroll and ROR needs I don't think you can have a 25$ minimum bet yet for the 8 deck game, although I think you are getting close to being able to play 25$ min 8 deck shoes. A 10 dollar min would be better especially as your first few weeks of play will be a roller coaster ride.
3. Buy a subscription to BJ21 green chip. Read all of the posts of the month. Use the search feature a lot. Don't expect tons of free info in the form of replies to your posts, but mine the site for info.
4. You may want to use one of the sim programs on the market to optimize your betting ramp, and more importantly, to calculate your true ROR by sim. Be aware that if expenses are taken out of your bankroll your ROR increases significantly. Norm's CVCX program will help you greatly in this regard. CV blackjack is good for practice as well.
Good luck. Keep your eyes open for additional advantages on your travels. Always check for dealer miss pays! Have fun :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHuh?
I am saying I suspect he does not know perfect basic strategy, and based on his questions and inclination to attack a 60% pen 8-deck, also has no experience counting. I know a counter who thinks he's APing it, but plays with a 70% ROR everytime he walks thru the door--I pointed him to the best game in the state, he would rather play a different one. I tell him it's pointless to count if he doesn't learn basic strategy, and he forgets to figure the cut-off decks into his true count calculation then hits a 14 against a 4. By playing without an advantage, he can cut into the advantage without cutting into himself, while also learning how it works on his own. You don't know what you are doing, you will bust yourself.
Quote: SonuvabishI am saying I suspect he does not know perfect basic strategy, and based on his questions and inclination to attack a 60% pen 8-deck, also has no experience counting. I know a counter who thinks he's APing it, but plays with a 70% ROR everytime he walks thru the door.
But how can you suggest a 1-2 spread when "counting for real"?
This is a reasonable way to practice (I guess) without too much of an edge against you.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBut how can you suggest a 1-2 spread when "counting for real"?
This is a reasonable way to practice (I guess) without too much of an edge against you.
I am suggesting that he can practice in a casino rather than at home. I personally think that is better, probably to the contrary of others. I would strongly suggest a tiny spread like that because at the beginning, there's a very high likelihood you will screw up. When starting, I wanted the slow dealers. Now, I want the super fast ones. When confidence is gained and indices are learned, increase the spread. At that point, maybe you can start asking what is an optimal spread.
Quote: SonuvabishI am suggesting that he can practice in a casino rather than at home. I personally think that is better, probably to the contrary of others. I would strongly suggest a tiny spread like that because at the beginning, there's a very high likelihood you will screw up. When starting, I wanted the slow dealers. Now, I want the super fast ones. When confidence is gained and indices are learned, increase the spread. At that point, maybe you can start asking what is an optimal spread.
Ok, now I understand what you are suggesting. I agree.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOk, now I understand what you are suggesting. I agree.
LOL, sorry I confused you.
1)Did you get that money playing poker only?
2)What stakes do you play at?
3)Do you realize that playing poker well is the best thing you can do in a casino(playing badly is conversely the worst thing you can do)? Blackjack is the second best thing you can do, but it's a far drop from good poker.
You sound like you go on tilt after losses in poker. That happens. I've done it. But you can just take a break from poker and walk around a bit instead of learning all of these new things and possibly go crazy and go broke. You can go broke only betting big with highly positive counts!
Quote: KickassAgain, you are over-betting your bankroll. Can you find $10 or $15 game with the similar rules?
Remember that the fluctuation in blackjack is huge.
yes I can find a $15 game..but feel the game is to low of a minimum to make any decent money...i'm looking to average at least $40 - $60 an hour..for my time counting.. I am aware of the fluctuation...
Quote: 1BBI do not consider a $400 top bet to be over betting with a bankroll of 40k. Without simming all the details, it falls into the 100 max bet rule of thumb or the 1% used by many advantage players. I don't have a problem with it.
For a variety of reasons, I don't think you can make a living at blackjack playing solely in Connecticut. To have any longevity at all you will have to travel to avoid heat and to seek better games.
Although the Foxwoods 8 deck game is beatable, I feel that it would take considerably more than a 1-16 spread to realize any appreciable profit and that brings us back to longevity.
I don't think straight counting is enough these days. Today's counter must be flexible and willing to explore other AP opportunities.
Now for the boring things that many want to pass over in their rush to the tables to apply their new found skills. This is where I ask everyone to pump the brakes just a little. Learn basic strategy cold. Most swear that they know it and they may even think that they know it. They do not. Knowing 90% or 95% will not cut it. If the commitment cannot be made to learn this simple first step, there is no need to continue.
Basic strategy is not one size fits all. Learn the strategy for the games you are going to play. If you are considering Foxwoods, for example, there are six basic strategy changes for H17. They are important. Do not sit at a table until you know them. It is perfectly acceptable to print out a strategy card to bring to the table as long as you don't slow the game down or cause any other disruptions.
Learn index play and wonging. Look up the Illustrious 18 and the Fab 4. They are all the play variations you will need for now. Avoid playing in negative shoes as much as possible.
1BB- Thank you for your advice. I do agree with and plan to not only play in CT - but venture out into PA and AC .. CT is convenient for me as this is my stomping grounds for my poker living..I do have to study up some more on indexing...Thanks for the advice..on index play.. I'm learning more...I thought it was just plain counting..but I see there are other aspects of Advantage Play..
Quote: arcticfunI agree with 1BB -- $400 is aggressive but certainly playable at a $40k bankroll.
My thoughts are: play at Mohegan rather than Foxwoods (favorable grandfather laws, 6D instead of 8, S17 instead of H17, nicer in general, all at the expense of an additional 5-10% penetration at Foxwoods); play head-to-head when possible (when off-peak ask for the $10 tables to be bumped to $25 and play that), and also consider the $50 table if you care about status and points. Red-chip at first if you want to practice, but move quickly to green/black because the gains would otherwise be way too slow.
Playing everyday 8h a day in the same place -- even a monstrously large casino like Mohegan -- is probably too risky. Take breaks, ranging from hours to weeks long, and be aware of pit critters hovering above your table or around the phone. At MS, I've found that the place is so busy and the pit bosses have so much to do that you won't get undue attention unless in the black/purple betting range.
Sound Advice...Thank You arcticfun!
Quote: stabworldyes I can find a $15 game..but feel the game is to low of a minimum to make any decent money...i'm looking to average at least $40 - $60 an hour..for my time counting.. I am aware of the fluctuation...
Lowering your minimum wager increases your hourly win rate, it doesn't decrease it.
Quote: Lemieux66Make sure you have a tolerance for cigarette smoke. Even in the non-smoking areas the air quality isn't nearly as good as in the poker room. Oh and you WILL be playing by smokers if the penetration is good so be ready for that.
Thats the one thing I hate is cigarette smoke..I will try to play in the non-smoking areas..if possible..
Quote: SlackJawYokelI play the Sands PA game often. It is dealer pitch double deck and I have never seen it below $50. They only had a few tables of this game but recently added a few more so you can generally get on a table alone or with one other person. If you want more information let me know.
Slack
Yes, I just got back from Sands ... and it is true..the double deck game is a dealer pitch and the cards are dealt down..I was standing behind the table for a few shoes.. and it seems like it may be harder to count at this game because of the cards dealt down..
SlackJawYokel - they had a total of 8 or 10 of these tables..with about 2 to 3 players per table..with a few empty so certainly easy to get a table by yourself.. it was around 1am on a Monday Night.. with a $50 min..
Do you think this game is beatable and countable.?
Quote: CoolMikeA few hints for you in order of importance in my opinion.
1. Start off with the KO count. This is described in the 'KO Blackjack' book by as well as 'The Color of Blackjack'. The index plays are easier for this count. There is no true count conversion needed. A basic bet ramp is discussed that works really well. With this count and 10 hours or so of practice you should be able to hit the casino and have an edge from your very first day of playing. Learn the index plays in order of importance, starting with insurance and 10v6 and move down the list. Start with 5-6 of the regular index plays and 1-2 of the surrender index plays and leave it at that. Add a few plays over the next few weeks until you have at least the illustrious 18 and the fab 4 surrender plays memorized. I promise you will be happier with the KO count than starting off with Hi-Lo. The first 3-5 sessions with hi-lo in a real casino are exhausting in my experience. With one less step to decide on betting and playing decisions you will find you can play quickly and accurately with KO.
2. For an 8 deck game you will need to spread pretty aggressively. 1-12 would be a good start: less than that will make your win rate relative to blackjack's variance too small for comfort. With your bankroll and ROR needs I don't think you can have a 25$ minimum bet yet for the 8 deck game, although I think you are getting close to being able to play 25$ min 8 deck shoes. A 10 dollar min would be better especially as your first few weeks of play will be a roller coaster ride.
3. Buy a subscription to BJ21 green chip. Read all of the posts of the month. Use the search feature a lot. Don't expect tons of free info in the form of replies to your posts, but mine the site for info.
4. You may want to use one of the sim programs on the market to optimize your betting ramp, and more importantly, to calculate your true ROR by sim. Be aware that if expenses are taken out of your bankroll your ROR increases significantly. Norm's CVCX program will help you greatly in this regard. CV blackjack is good for practice as well.
Good luck. Keep your eyes open for additional advantages on your travels. Always check for dealer miss pays! Have fun :)
Thank you for this advice. I will check out the KO count..
Quote: SonuvabishI am saying I suspect he does not know perfect basic strategy, and based on his questions and inclination to attack a 60% pen 8-deck, also has no experience counting. I know a counter who thinks he's APing it, but plays with a 70% ROR everytime he walks thru the door--I pointed him to the best game in the state, he would rather play a different one. I tell him it's pointless to count if he doesn't learn basic strategy, and he forgets to figure the cut-off decks into his true count calculation then hits a 14 against a 4. By playing without an advantage, he can cut into the advantage without cutting into himself, while also learning how it works on his own. You don't know what you are doing, you will bust yourself.
Sonuvabish - You are correct - I have no experience counting.. Although I do know perfect basic strategy as I have played blackjack for 13 years with basic strategy..
Quote: SonuvabishI am suggesting that he can practice in a casino rather than at home. I personally think that is better, probably to the contrary of others. I would strongly suggest a tiny spread like that because at the beginning, there's a very high likelihood you will screw up. When starting, I wanted the slow dealers. Now, I want the super fast ones. When confidence is gained and indices are learned, increase the spread. At that point, maybe you can start asking what is an optimal spread.
Sonuvabish - I do like your suggestion of practicing for real in a casino rather than at home and only betting min or maybe 1-2 spread max.. I was intending to do this..for the first few weeks..before I am fully confident in my counting abilities before I start placing max bets with bigger spreads... I actually have already done 1 practice session just betting the minimum..and I must say it is a lot harder than I thought trying to keep a count and also making decisions on your hands... I am confident however, that I can definitely get better with time..
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceLowering your minimum wager increases your hourly win rate, it doesn't decrease it.
I do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?
(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..
Quote: Lemieux66I have a question: Why do you want to play blackjack? You have a 40k bankroll and play poker for a living. Here are a few more:
1)Did you get that money playing poker only?
2)What stakes do you play at?
3)Do you realize that playing poker well is the best thing you can do in a casino(playing badly is conversely the worst thing you can do)? Blackjack is the second best thing you can do, but it's a far drop from good poker.
You sound like you go on tilt after losses in poker. That happens. I've done it. But you can just take a break from poker and walk around a bit instead of learning all of these new things and possibly go crazy and go broke. You can go broke only betting big with highly positive counts!
Lemieux66 - answers to your questions..
I want to play blackjack because lately I have been feeling a little bored at the poker table and feel like I can't do any better as I have reached my full potential with regards to my hourly win rate...Don't get me wrong - I still will not give up poker as this is my main source of income..and I do enjoy the social aspects of getting into conversations with people at the poker table.. but I hate the boredom of in between hands and when cards are cold..
I realize at blackjack I would constantly be engaged every second by counting cards..keeping counts... so my mind is constantly active and not seeping into cloud 9 day dreaming like it does at the poker table when nobody is interesting enough to talk to and cards are running cold/in between hands.. I do further realize that the social aspect of conversation will disappear once I am at the blackjack table having to concentrate on counting..I am prepared and willing to accept this change from poker.
1. A portion of the 40K bankroll is from winnings of poker leftover after paying bills.... but the majority of the bankroll is a combination of a 20K 0% balance transfer I took out from a credit card and a ROTH IRA balance that I can withdraw without penalty or being taxed... I technically do have access of up to a 47K bankroll but left out 7K to allow for market fluctuations in my ROTH IRA balance.. I have a separate bankroll for my poker playing..
2. I play 1/2 NL- 1/3NL and 2/5 NL as well as tournaments - with occasional play of 4/8L - 5/10 omaha H/L L
3. I do know playing poker well is very profitable as my excel spreadsheet of my sessions over the years clearly shows..
I will take your word as far as blackjack being a far drop from good poker as I have never played blackjack professionally (counting).. but I still am looking to give it a try.. I rarely go on tilt in poker..but when I do go on tilt or I am running badly in poker I like to get up from poker and play blackjack betting the min when I don't feel like going back to my room..
But I'm looking to play blackjack not when I'm on tilt from playing poker..i'm looking to make this a 2nd venture for me rather than just playing poker...kind of like a 2nd career but a part time career as the majority of my time is dedicated to poker... I would most likely sacrifice 10-15 hours per week playing poker in order to play blackjack profitably.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn my opinion:
1. Wong out aggressively to increase your win rate.
2. You need a higher max bet to make any real money. With a $250 max bet on an 8-deck game you are not making very much. IMO, you need to be willing to go up to $500 at the very least before blackjack is worthwhile (unless you have non-counting ways to get larger edges).
3a. You need a bigger bankroll (see #2).
3b. Always remember that playing 2 hands of half the size reduces variance but leaves your edge the same. eg, 2x$250 has the same edge as a $500 hand but only has the bankroll requirements of a $350 or $400 hand.
3c. Why are you comfortable with a 2% risk of ruin? 2% is not that unlikely. If I was making a living off of this, a 2% risk of ruin would scare the hell out of me.
4. Cover is overrated. This is controversial and many people who make a living doing this, and have a lot more experience than I do, disagree, so I accept that I may be wrong. It's still my opinion, though.
AxiomOfChoice - What do you mean by "4. "Cover is overrated"?
in answer to your question3c. I am comfortable with not going broke 49 out of 50 times. .5% - 1% risk of ruin would be even better..but at the expense of a lower hourly rate.. I an comfortable with the 2% risk of ruin balance as a bottom line ..but nothing over 2% ROR..
Quote: KickassAgain, you are over-betting your bankroll. Can you find $10 or $15 game with the similar rules?
Remember that the fluctuation in blackjack is huge.
If I had somebody to tell me the rate of ruin on a $25 min bet- 1-16 spread having a $400 max bet..on a 40k bankroll. I can better gage what I decide to go with on min bet and spread.. any suggestions on min bet? spread? to give me a risk of ruin between .5% - 2%? on a 6-8 deck game with decent rules and good penetration.? how bout a $15 min bet and a 1-16 spread with a $240 max bet? Also, what would be the average hourly rate on the proposed min bets and spreads?
Can somebody suggest a good chart or when to "up" your unit bets say on a $25 min bet and a 1-16 spread? as the true count increases..
Much Appreciated!
He recommends this set of ROR calculators where you can plug in your numbers.
The Wizard himself has a blackjack appendix discussing it as well.
Quote: stabworldI do understand that..lowering your min wage by itself .. increases your hourly win rate because you are losing less money on the negative counts.. but it also decreases the amount of your max bets with a similar spread that you would have had at a higher min bet... to keep the same max bet after lowing your min bet .. one would have to increase their spread - thereby drawing more heat from the pit...no?
(by the way ..not trying to come off as if I know it all..because you are the experienced counter not me.. I am simply making this comment in a form of a question ..based on math and logic..) and I do appreciate your feedback and advice..
The max bet at 15 dollar minimum tables is still pretty gigantic in relation to your roll. In AC, it'll be 1500 usually. More than good enough. Good rules at 15 dollar games are the real issue.
