I need to know the mathematical calculation
Quote: TomspurThere was a question mark after my sentence so I guess I did.
I will attempt to be clearer next time :)
Oh, you are asking me if I think that the answer is pot odds?
Of course; the answer is that you call when you have over a 20% chance of winning the pot (ignoring ties).
I'm not sure what the skill of the opponent has to do with it. You only fold losers against good players? That must make the bad players very happy.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOh, you are asking me if I think that the answer is pot odds?
Of course; the answer is that you call when you have over a 20% chance of winning the pot (ignoring ties).
I'm not sure what the skill of the opponent has to do with it. You only fold losers against good players? That must make the bad players very happy.
No, that isn't what I said or if I implied it, it certainly wasn't what I meant. I will call in spots I believe I have pot odds to do so. I may sometimes make reckless calls based on the player, not based on the pot odds.
Completely unrelated and something I never knew until about 20 seconds ago......Did you know there was a town in Cali called "Tomspur"? :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYeah, I know, this is my point. Do you know what the pot odds are? Do you know what they mean and how they should affect your decision? In one sentence, when should you call here? And, why?
If p is your probability of winning the hand, what is your expectation if you call?
It's the ratio of the pot size compared to the size of the call. For instance, I have 10 outs which is roughly 19% on the river I need better than 5 to 1
Quote: Lemieux66It's the ratio of the pot size compared to the size of the call. For instance, I have 10 outs which is roughly 19% on the river I need better than 5 to 1
First, I was talking about calling on the end (no more outs)
Second, you need slightly better than 4 to 1, not 5 to 1.
Quote: TomspurCompletely unrelated and something I never knew until about 20 seconds ago......Did you know there was a town in Cali called "Tomspur"? :)
Really? I just typed "Tomspur, CA" into google maps and got nothing.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceReally? I just typed "Tomspur, CA" into google maps and got nothing.
It seems to be on the 99 between Stockton and Lodi. Just type in "Tomspur".
Unless my computer is exploring some kind of "owner bias" :)
Quote: TomspurIt seems to be on the 99 between Stockton and Lodi. Just type in "Tomspur".
Unless my computer is exploring some kind of "owner bias" :)
I tried just "Tomspur". Nothing.
I looked at a map. There is nothing on 99 between Stockton and Lodi.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFirst, I was talking about calling on the end (no more outs)
Second, you need slightly better than 4 to 1, not 5 to 1.
That's a stupid calculation. If you're solely playing the math in nearly any situation in poker, you're going to go broke. "Feel" is more important than math in poker(in my opinion, there's a massive debate about this).
Quote: Lemieux66That's a stupid calculation. If you're solely playing the math in nearly any situation in poker, you're going to go broke. "Feel" is more important than math in poker(in my opinion, there's a massive debate about this).
Stupid calculation or not, you got it wrong.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceStupid calculation or not, you got it wrong.
Then why ask? Considering it's a stupid question. It's also late and I didn't want to give a dumb question my time.
Quote: Lemieux66But anyway, you need better or equal to 1/3 on that one. But the calculation becomes skewed because you are no longer calculating outs. You're calculating if you have the best hand. It's just different.
1/3? Are you serious?
I am betting $200 into a $600 pot and you think that you need to have the best hand 1 time in 3 to call?
The answer is 1 time in 5.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI tried just "Tomspur". Nothing.
I looked at a map. There is nothing on 99 between Stockton and Lodi.
Ok that is REALLY strange. Now it is showing up in a search. I have no idea why it was not before.
It seems to be a neighborhood in Stockton. All the addresses there are given as "Stockton, CA".
Quote: AxiomOfChoice1/3? Are you serious?
I am betting $200 into a $600 pot and you think that you need to have the best hand 1 time in 3 to call?
The answer is 1 time in 5.
How do actually ask a thinking person this question? There is no correct answer. Every answer varies. You gave me no board, no flop/turn action, no dynamic between players, nothing. Ask me a legit question next time.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice1/3? Are you serious?
I am betting $200 into a $600 pot and you think that you need to have the best hand 1 time in 3 to call?
The answer is 1 time in 5.
Would you always go all in preflop with kings? You're deep stacked. Why or why not?
Quote: Lemieux66How do actually ask a thinking person this question? There is no correct answer. Every answer varies. You gave me no board, no flop/turn action, no dynamic between players, nothing. Ask me a legit question next time.
Because it's a simple question. I did not ask you "do you call?", I ask you "when do you call?". You call when you have a 1/5 chance of winning.
You clearly understood the question, but you answered 1/3 instead of 1/5.
You seem to think that math is irrelevant to gambling. I disagree.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOk that is REALLY strange. Now it is showing up in a search. I have no idea why it was not before.
It seems to be a neighborhood in Stockton. All the addresses there are given as "Stockton, CA".
Yeah, I was almost thinking that perhaps a camera picked my car up going through there (as my wife and I sometimes take that route back from OR) and decided to make it a town :)
Yeah I checked again, its there, not very big at all but it is there :)
You learn something new every day!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBecause it's a simple question. I did not ask you "do you call?", I ask you "when do you call?". You call when you have a 1/5 chance of winning.
You clearly understood the question, but you answered 1/3 instead of 1/5.
You seem to think that math is irrelevant to gambling. I disagree.
I misread the question because I was tired. I looked at it like "there is 600 in the pot. If you make a 200 dollar all in call what price does that give you?"
Feel kills math. As long as you're logical about it.
Quote: Lemieux66I misread the question because I was tired. I looked at it like "there is 600 in the pot. If you make a 200 dollar all in call what price does that give you?"
Feel kills math. As long as you're logical about it.
Then you are still wrong because by this alleged misreading, the pot oods are 1/4...so why did you answer 1/3? I don't even play poker. And you do not have a .5% advantage at TC +1, refer to pg. 3.
Quote: SonuvabishThen you are still wrong because by this alleged misreading, the pot oods are 1/4...so why did you answer 1/3? I don't even play poker. And you do not have a .5% advantage at TC +1, refer to pg. 3.
Obviously. You go by the house edge of the rules of the table first and then you add or subtract your edge depending on the current RC which you then convert to TC.
Quote: Lemieux66Obviously. You go by the house edge of the rules of the table first and then you add or subtract your edge depending on the current RC which you then convert to TC.
No, I don't add or subtract my edge from the running count. If any counter said that is a step in their process, I would suggest they at least revert to flat-betting until they understand how to play. I wonder if this was once a step in your process, and you 'improved' upon it.
Quote: SonuvabishNo, I don't add or subtract my edge from the running count. If any counter said that is a step in their process, I would suggest they at least revert to flat-betting until they understand how to play.
You take the RC and make a rough conversion to TC depending how many decks are left.
Quote: Lemieux66You take the RC and make a rough conversion to TC depending how many decks are left.
That is correct. I divide by the half-decks. Not half decks remainings, but 1 or 1.5 or 2 or 2.5. So some conversions are rougher than others.
Quote: SonuvabishNo, I don't add or subtract my edge from the running count. If any counter said that is a step in their process, I would suggest they at least revert to flat-betting until they understand how to play. I wonder if this was once a step in your process, and you 'improved' upon it.
I have no idea what you are talking about. I'm talking about shoe games here. You keep a running count! You then on the fly convert it to true count! It's not that hard.
Quote: SonuvabishThat is correct. I divide by the half-decks. Not half decks remainings, but 1 or 1.5 or 2 or 2.5. So some conversions are rougher than others.
That's one way to go about it.
Quote: Lemieux66Still though, I now feel BJ is for those who crave action, aren't patient enough for poker, or maybe want big comps from the casino. But my assumption is that if you're counting correctly and betting profitable amounts, surveillance will notice you. So that reason might be out the window.
AP blackjack is for an odd sort of people. Unlike in poker the decisions are very cut and dry, right and wrong. Either you should double A,8v6 or you shouldn't. There is no bluffing or thinking about what the other person could do. In a lot of ways all you are doing is playing solitaire with another person handling the cards.
You also won't be getting much in the way of comps. Rarely do counters play rated and even when they do blackjack doesn't have a very good return for comps. You can probably manage a few hotel rooms or a buffet, but nothing like you might imagine they'd get for the kind of money they churn.
Quote: Lemieux66Still though, I now feel BJ is for those who crave action, aren't patient enough for poker, or maybe want big comps from the casino. But my assumption is that if you're counting correctly and betting profitable amounts, surveillance will notice you. So that reason might be out the window.
Blackjack takes a lot of patience and discipline. I don't want to take anything away from a poker pro. The best AP I have seen besides myself (I don't see many, I'm not trying to say I'm great or compare myself to anyone online, whom I've never met), was better at blackjack than me when we met, but I quickly became better. But soon, he was playing poker and encouraged me to play. I wouldn't get into it because I like the static, precise nature of blackjack as opposed to the variable, dynamic nature of poker. Had nothing to do with comps or action or impatience. So because I respect him, rest assured, I respect AP poker players.
You don't know pot odds. I find it a bit ioff-putting you would compare the two in such a manner. You could be really good at both and just say things that are easily misinterpreted, but I have my doubts.
The bet Axiom explained was a player pushing all in for $200 into a pot of $600. That would mean that the pot odds for that bet was $600/$200 which is 3:1 or 25%.....Isn't that what Lemieux said way back? Why are we still going on about his pot odds calculation?
Quote: TomspurWhat am I missing here....
The bet Axiom explained was a player pushing all in for $200 into a pot of $600. That would mean that the pot odds for that bet was $600/$200 which is 3:1 or 25%.....Isn't that what Lemieux said way back? Why are we still going on about his pot odds calculation?
He meant that there was 600 in the pot and now an added 200 for his all in shove. So now how many times do you need to be right to put 200 in to win the 800 pot.
Quote: Lemieux66He meant that there was 600 in the pot and now an added 200 for his all in shove. So now how many times do you need to be right to put 200 in to win the 800 pot.
Ok I get that, but then we aren't talking about pot odds then right?
Anyway, implied, reverse implied, manipulating...it is all giving me kind of a headache :)
I'm not that good at poker anyway :)
Quote: SonuvabishBlackjack takes a lot of patience and discipline. I don't want to take anything away from a poker pro. The best AP I have seen besides myself (I don't see many, I'm not trying to say I'm great or compare myself to anyone online, whom I've never met), was better at blackjack than me when we met, but I quickly became better. But soon, he was playing poker and encouraged me to play. I wouldn't get into it because I like the static, precise nature of blackjack as opposed to the variable, dynamic nature of poker. Had nothing to do with comps or action or impatience. So because I respect him, rest assured, I respect AP poker players.
You don't know pot odds. I find it a bit ioff-putting you would compare the two in such a manner. You could be really good at both and just say things that are easily misinterpreted, but I have my doubts.
It just feels like BJ is a series of highs and lows. Giant variance. It's very stressful. Another problem is dealing with these non-stop smokers. Even in non-smoking areas the air quality isn't very good. Poker, on the other hand, is a game in which you discuss ideas with friends and look for fish etc. There's a lot that goes into it that's fun and interesting.
Quote: TomspurWhat am I missing here....
The bet Axiom explained was a player pushing all in for $200 into a pot of $600. That would mean that the pot odds for that bet was $600/$200 which is 3:1 or 25%.....Isn't that what Lemieux said way back? Why are we still going on about his pot odds calculation?
He said 1/3 not 3:1. He didn't give a ratio, he gave a fraction. The pot odds are NOT 1/3.
Quote: TomspurOk I get that, but then we aren't talking about pot odds then right?
Anyway, implied, reverse implied, manipulating...it is all giving me kind of a headache :)
I'm not that good at poker anyway :)
Lol it's complicated stuff. One thing to keep in mind is never overestimate your implied odds especially if you are against people who can put you on a hand. They likely won't pay you off if you hit.
Everyone happy now?
Quote: Lemieux66If there's 800 in the pot, you just have to be right once out of 5 times. You win one time, you win 800. You lose 4 times, you lose 800. Break even.
Everyone happy now?
I haven't been happy since my pet guinea pig died.
Quote: geoffI haven't been happy since my pet guinea pig died.
And you shouldn't be
The funny part is..... it's NOT 19% anyway its more like 21.7% 3.60 to 1 might be more accurate.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFirst, I was talking about calling on the end (no more outs)
Second, you need slightly better than 4 to 1, not 5 to 1.
(If someone wants to get technical on me and prove me wrong. You will receive no pleasure in doing so, I don't claim to be good at math)
I like don't guinea pigs. We do have a sweet, free roaming, little ferret. Most loving animal I have ever had, smart to. My heart will break if she dies.Quote: geoffI haven't been happy since my pet guinea pig died.
Quote: AxelWolfI like don't guinea pigs. We do have a sweet, free roaming, little ferret. Most loving animal I have ever had, smart to. My heart will break if she dies.
Is a "don't guinea pig" like a regular guinea pig but from the "dark side"? :)
Quote: tringlomaneYeah, poker is an easier, more consistent way to make money if you are one of the better players at the table. I wished I loved NLHE like everyone else does. Most casino players are terrible at the lowest limits.
I have a friend who is both a machine pro and a poker pro. He rotates between the two. He's nationwide and will hole up wherever he finds good machine plays or good poker games. Recently, he went through the Seattle area looking at the poker games. He liked what he saw and rented a bungalow in Gig Harbor. He Plays the 15-30 Omaha 8 at Muckleshoot and the 8-16 holdem, with most of the table taking overs to 12-24., at the Palace in Lakewood.
We talk pretty much every day on the phone. His badbeat stories are comical as hell. "I limp on the button, with several limpers in front of me, with KJ. The flop comes Q T 9 rainbow I flopped the joint. Dude in middle position bets out. One caller between. I jam. Everybody gets out of the way but Mr. middle position. We cap the bet. Turn is a Jack. He bets out. I raise. He calls. River is a King. He checks. I check behind. Dude shows me pocket Aces. He caught runner runner to make the treetop. Dude slow played before the flop, then jammed on the flop against a coordinated board, then tried to checkraise me on the end."
His BB stories are not about his bad luck. Its his critiqing of bad players and how they play. We just laugh like hell at the idiocy if it. Between the poker games and the progressive high hands he netted $8500 in February. He's got me thinking about adding the Spokane poker games to my itinerary.
Quote: AxelWolfI like don't guinea pigs. We do have a sweet, free roaming, little ferret. Most loving animal I have ever had, smart to. My heart will break if she dies.
Axel, are you dyslexic? Should we be calling you Wolf?
I didn't know there were any really 'good' slot machines. RNG getting progressively less R or Progressive Prizes getting more tempting.Quote: mickeycrimmI have a friend who is both a machine pro and a poker pro. He rotates between the two. He's nationwide and will hole up wherever he finds good machine plays or good poker games.
Yipes. Its a whole 'nother language. I'm a walking Tell and couldn't remember what cards were played, so I'd be terrible at it, but that 8500 a month sure is nice and Gig Harbor is a real nice place to be.Quote: mickeycrimm
We talk pretty much every day on the phone. His badbeat stories are comical as hell. "I limp on the button, with several limpers in front of me, with KJ. The flop comes Q T 9 rainbow I flopped the joint. Dude in middle position bets out. One caller between. I jam. Everybody gets out of the way but Mr. middle position. We cap the bet. Turn is a Jack. He bets out. I raise. He calls. River is a King. He checks. I check behind. Dude shows me pocket Aces. He caught runner runner to make the treetop. Dude slow played before the flop, then jammed on the flop against a coordinated board, then tried to checkraise me on the end."
Quote: FleaStiffI didn't know there were any really 'good' slot machines. RNG getting progressively less R or Progressive Prizes getting more tempting.
Yipes. Its a whole 'nother language. I'm a walking Tell and couldn't remember what cards were played, so I'd be terrible at it, but that 8500 a month sure is nice and Gig Harbor is a real nice place to be.
Love Gig Harbor. It's on my list of where I may end up. Famous for bridge harmonics and great sailboating.
Quote: beachbumbabsLove Gig Harbor. It's on my list of where I may end up. Famous for bridge harmonics and great sailboating.
Bridge Harmonics. Galloping Gerty? The Tacoma Narrows bridge failure film has been shown world wide. Yet don't forget. Those plans were reviewed and approved and all those engineers were not merely licensed but well-respected in their field. I still think its a pity the guy didn't let the dog out of his car. Pity the pooch drowned.
I do have one question about this 8500 a month. I'd like that. Heck, I'd like even 8.50 a month.
What is it with Gig Harbor poker rooms? Does this "friend" make his money by superior knowledge, superior memory, superior observation of his opponents or what? Or is it that as a "new guy" at the table they don't know if he is bluffing or not?
Is poker easier or harder than BJ Basic Strategy?
PS: Port Townsend is nice too. I know one woman who ran a bookstore and when she saw Port Townsend had four in one block she knew what her retirement town would be. Though Port Angeles did well. One guy took over an abandoned car garage and turned it into a cheapie gym without contracts. Made a mint. I locked myself out of my car in Forks, WA... nice town. Cops actually let me into my car and suggested I visit the Hoh Rainforrest with its 120 inches of rain a year. ALL the bars in town had "we support the logging industry, not the spotted owl" signs. Difficult times there, but then I understand Hollywood showed up and started filming some Vampire Vixen show. Even Pacific County, " a nice place to retire' had real estate bargains that were unbelievable. Some urban dumpster divers took a look at their lives in urban areas and decided to head to the boonies and start farms or businesses there... they made out like bandits.
LOL. Good reasoning. I guess I'll stick to trying to get BS down pat than trying to learn poker.Quote: Lemieux66Poker is a billion times harder than BJ basic strategy. You can tell because you don't have a 2 dollar plastic card telling you exactly what to do in poker.
Quote: FleaStiffLOL. Good reasoning. I guess I'll stick to trying to get BS down pat than trying to learn poker.
Actually, think about this. If you are a black chip player(which I just learned you need to be in order to make money), you have enough money to learn how to play poker. I feel poker is harder, but the rewards are sweet once you learn.
Quote: FleaStiffThough Port Angeles did well. One guy took over an abandoned car garage and turned it into a cheapie gym without contracts. Made a mint.
I know the back country will be nice, but Port Angeles itself can only be recommended for the bars. Not the most picturesque town in the world. Spent a wet 2 hours there while waiting for a ferry back to Victoria, BC. The Coho, on which a failed terrorist bomber was caught trying to enter the US, but luckily a sharped eyed border guard decided he was 'hinky' and checked his credentials.
Quote: FleaStiffBridge Harmonics. Galloping Gerty? The Tacoma Narrows bridge failure film has been shown world wide. Yet don't forget. Those plans were reviewed and approved and all those engineers were not merely licensed but well-respected in their field. I still think its a pity the guy didn't let the dog out of his car. Pity the pooch drowned.
I do have one question about this 8500 a month. I'd like that. Heck, I'd like even 8.50 a month.
What is it with Gig Harbor poker rooms? Does this "friend" make his money by superior knowledge, superior memory, superior observation of his opponents or what? Or is it that as a "new guy" at the table they don't know if he is bluffing or not?
Is poker easier or harder than BJ Basic Strategy?
PS: Port Townsend is nice too. I know one woman who ran a bookstore and when she saw Port Townsend had four in one block she knew what her retirement town would be. Though Port Angeles did well. One guy took over an abandoned car garage and turned it into a cheapie gym without contracts. Made a mint. I locked myself out of my car in Forks, WA... nice town. Cops actually let me into my car and suggested I visit the Hoh Rainforrest with its 120 inches of rain a year. ALL the bars in town had "we support the logging industry, not the spotted owl" signs. Difficult times there, but then I understand Hollywood showed up and started filming some Vampire Vixen show. Even Pacific County, " a nice place to retire' had real estate bargains that were unbelievable. Some urban dumpster divers took a look at their lives in urban areas and decided to head to the boonies and start farms or businesses there... they made out like bandits.
Al is an incredibly strong player. I met him at the Stardust in 2000. The first time I seen him in action was when he showed up in Reno in 2002. He flat ran over the 4-8 Omaha 8 game at the Cal Neva. Tells are highly overrated in limit poker. Bluffing, as a singular strategy, is weak. Poker is about getting the right price and giving your opponents the wrong price. Al is just very good at it.
