No discard pile?
Thank you
Counting is more or less impossible. Stephen How wrote this: http://discountgambling.net/2012/07/27/counting-csm-blackjack-ev/
The edges are too tiny to make any money, but you might be able to play more or less break-even if you don't mind jumping your bets around wildly (ie, if you can handle the massive swings)
Quote: MaxHoppusI find this to be really demotivating and unfair, there is no way that I can gamble safely now. CSM is everywhere in this poor and small country.
For the non-counter, a CSM reduces the house edge (of course it also increases the number of hands per hour, so your hourly loss will still be greater).
You are also much less likely to be cheated with a CSM than with a hand-shuffled deck or shoe; a cheating dealer has far less opportunity to cheat.
Why do you think that this is unfair?
Quote: MaxHoppusI can't count cards, so there is no way for me to surpass or get over the house edge, so the chance for me to profit can be quite small and risky.
Well, yeah, but that's not really unfair. Many games are unbeatable without sloppy dealing practices (or cheating).
Do you think that craps is unfair? You can't surpass the house edge in that game either.
But what if you graduated from a respectable dice setting academy ?
Quote: Buzzard" Do you think that craps is unfair? You can't surpass the house edge in that game either. "
But what if you graduated from a respectable dice setting academy ?
Stop it buzz!!! :)
Quote: MaxHoppusI can't argue with that. Still, it sucks because I learned so much about card counting, and I really wanted to make a profit out of gambling, which I can't seem to do now.
Blackjack is not the only game in the casino. I don't know what's offered at your local casinos, but I seriously doubt that there is not a single beatable game in the place.
Quote:You are also much less likely to be cheated with a CSM than with a hand-shuffled deck or shoe; a cheating dealer has far less opportunity to cheat.
I don't agree. Skilled card mechanics are quite rare while tampered decks in the CSM create a considerable added edge. Beatable CSMs are plentiful but I've never seen one that spreads the cards.
Quote: RicardoEstebanI don't agree. Skilled card mechanics are quite rare while tampered decks in the CSM create a considerable added edge. Beatable CSMs are plentiful but I've never seen one that spreads the cards.
I don't think that skilled mechanics are particularly rare.
To cheat with a short shoe, the house has to be in on it, and they are cheating everyone.
For a mechanic to cheat, it's possible for it just to be a rogue dealer. He can dump money to his friends while he cheats the honest customers, so that the numbers don't look too strange.
I don't know about other countries, but in Vegas, I think that the probability of a large casino intentionally dealing a dishonest game are essentially nil. I feel that it's much more likely that the casino unknowingly hires a cheating dealer, who operates in the way that I described above.
Edit: How are the CSMs beatable? Are you talking about counting in the way that Stephen How describes (perhaps technically "beatable", but not realistically) or are you talking about something else?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI don't think that skilled mechanics are particularly rare.
To cheat with a short shoe, the house has to be in on it, and they are cheating everyone.
For a mechanic to cheat, it's possible for it just to be a rogue dealer. He can dump money to his friends while he cheats the honest customers, so that the numbers don't look too strange.
I don't know about other countries, but in Vegas, I think that the probability of a large casino intentionally dealing a dishonest game are essentially nil. I feel that it's much more likely that the casino unknowingly hires a cheating dealer, who operates in the way that I described above.
Edit: How are the CSMs beatable? Are you talking about counting in the way that Stephen How describes (perhaps technically "beatable", but not realistically) or are you talking about something else?
Yes, not likely to occur in Vegas or anywhere corporatized. I'll take the under on your rogue dealer scenario but it has the makings of a good screenplay.
Yet, there is no way to go around this, the only games there besides blackjack are baccarat, roulette, virtual roulette, caribbean stud poker and an absurd amount of slot machines. Blackjack seemed to be the only good choice, but now I'm at a loss. Can I really beat a CSM?
This is a standard description of most European (continental) casinos.Quote: MaxHoppusYet, there is no way to go around this, the only games there besides blackjack are baccarat, roulette, virtual roulette, caribbean stud poker and an absurd amount of slot machines. Blackjack seemed to be the only good choice, but now I'm at a loss. Can I really beat a CSM?
I try to find one with the best rules (surrender, any double, etc.). In some places the dealers are quite free with their card management, waiting several rounds before putting the cards back in the machine; so even with a CSM, I can find 1 to 1.5 deck penetration. That is not much, and certainly not for Advantage Play, but still reduces the house edge enough to make the gambling experience satisfactory. The fun is in the playing and counting, and I pay a small sum for that fun. Cheaper than other leisure activities.
Caribbean Stud, in my experience, is fun and also very satisfactory in terms of lost money (House Edge or Element of Risk are not good measures here).
Why is that?Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFor the non-counter, a CSM reduces the house edge.
Quote: MaxHoppusYet, there is no way to go around this, the only games there besides blackjack are baccarat, roulette, virtual roulette, caribbean stud poker and an absurd amount of slot machines. Blackjack seemed to be the only good choice, but now I'm at a loss. Can I really beat a CSM?
Caribbean Stud may be an option for +EV play, if there are promotions or people are liberal with sharing their cards. In one Caribbean casino there was a hotseat promotion every half hour that made the game +EV just by itself.
Can you buy a card? This is common is non-US casinos, and makes the game better.
If you can see other player's cards, or they are willing to talk with you, you can beat the game slowly: http://apheat.net/2013/09/05/caribbean-stud-collusion/
Finally, if the cards can be sorted, you can play alone or with a team and do well.
Quote: dwheatleyAn esoteric concept called the cut-card effect.
Yes, this. A cut card effect is essentially a weak form of a preferential shuffle. It is particularly bad in a single-deck game.
Essentially, smaller cards being played eat up more cards (since players and the dealer hit more). So you only deal a lot of rounds when many big cards and very few small cards have been played. In other words, if you make it to the nth round for a large value of n, the count will be negative at that point -- a positive count would have been shuffled away because the cut card would have been hit.
Quote: MaxHoppusI don't think that here in Lisbon's casino the CSM has been tampered with, everything seems pretty standart. I've spent now a couple of hours going around the blackjack tables and watching game progression.
Yet, there is no way to go around this, the only games there besides blackjack are baccarat, roulette, virtual roulette, caribbean stud poker and an absurd amount of slot machines. Blackjack seemed to be the only good choice, but now I'm at a loss. Can I really beat a CSM?
When you say slots, does that include video poker? Does that include slots with small progressives (eg, quick hits)? What kinds of side bets exist in the baccarat games?
Quote: SonuvabishHi everyone! New poster here, thought I'd jump in to the mix. Deuces wild video poker is beatable, only if it is full pay--so compare the pay schedule to the wizard's. 800:1 for a natural royal I think is what you need. Also, the CSM is not only better because of they lack the cut-card effect, but because they typically use less decks than a shoe.
They almost all pay 800 (4000 for 5 coins bet). The key is the pays on the lower lines.
Also, even negative return games can become positive after you consider the freeplay that you get. And, if there are progressive machines, those can become positive return when the jackpot grows enough.
Quote: SonuvabishNo, the ones I've seen all pay the same on the lower end. But some pay 250:1. I suppose it depends where you are at. Point is, gotta be full-pay.
I've never seen one that paid 250-1 for a royal on a 5-coin bet. Usually they pay 250 for 1 coin but 4000 for 5 coins (which makes it optimal to play 5 coins). All the other payouts usually scale linearly.
Anyway, generally, video poker paytables are differentiated by the payouts on the lower lines. Eg, "full-pay" for Jacks or Better is 9/6, which means it pays 9 for a full house and 6 for a flush. Some worse paytables might be 8/6, 9/5, 8/5, 7/5, or 6/5. But they all pay 800 for a royal (with 5 coins bet -- that is, the royal pays 4000)
Even at 9/6, it returns under 100%, but after freeplay, etc, it might become positive (depending on how much you can get for your play)
On WoO, there are returns for just about any game and and paytable you might stumble across.
Quote: IbeatyouracesNot quite all of them. As been noted before, you have to check the royal as well, even on "full pay" machines. Some royals go 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500.
Rivieria comes to mind on this. When we were playing through the FSP after losing, we thought we found a 9/6 JoB but it was a 2500 credit royal.
