mazejackson
mazejackson
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:35:15 PM permalink
I play on-line black jack at web site called "BetKill.net". For a long time I've believed that the games were fixed. It seems that the odds go extreemly in the favour of the house as you place larger bets. If you play 1 to 3 dollars a hand - the game stays about like a standard game of black jack. If you double down it can become crazy how much the odds change in favour of the dealer.

This morning I was playing Double Exposure Black Jack. Dealer must stand on hard 17 but draw on soft 17. Dealer wins ties. 50.00 is the limit on a single bet.

The dealer won two, - one dollar hands in a row, on the third hand I raised my bet to 5 - dealer won 4th hand, I doubled to 10.00 - dealer won - then I doubled to 20, dealer won, (dealer has now won 5 hands in a row. Please remember this is double exploser. I see both of the dealers cards.

On the sixth hand I doubled to 40.00 - dealer won hand 6. Because of limits on the size of the bet, I staid at $40.00 for my bet on the nxt 4 four hands. - Dealer won those four hands as well. Dealer has now won 10 hands in row...

Now my wallet is down to 8.00. I bet 5.00 dealer win hands 11, Now I have 3.00 left, dealer wins hand 12...

Below is the log of the hands..

I feel that this is just not possible.

What were the odds?

What can you do?

I've lost 6 or 7 hands in in a row on this site, but 12 is the record.

Steve

11:34:37 Player Hand 14 5¢¼ 9¢À Stand
Dealer Hand 20 A¢¼ A¢¼ K¢¼ 8¢¼ Hit, Hit, Stand
3.00 -3.00
11:33:13 Player Hand 15 J¢À 5♦
Dealer Hand 21 K¢¾ A♦ BlackJack
5.00 -5.00
11:32:59 Player Hand 20 9¢À A¢À Stand
Dealer Hand 21 A¢¾ 5¢À A¢¼ 4¢À Hit, Hit, Stand
40.00 -40.00
11:32:50 Player Hand 17 7♦ Q¢À Stand
Dealer Hand 19 5¢¼ A¢¼ J¢À 3¢À Hit, Hit, Stand
40.00 -40.00
11:32:41 Player Hand 23 J¢¼ 8¢¼ 5¢À Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 20 K¢¾ T¢À
40.00 -40.00
11:32:30 Player Hand 26 6¢¾ T¢À T¢À Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 11 4♦ 7¢À
40.00 -40.00
11:32:18 Player Hand 16 7♦ 9¢¼ Stand
Dealer Hand 18 J¢¾ 3¢¼ 5¢À Hit, Stand
40.00 -40.00
11:32:02 Player Hand 20 J♦ 4¢À 6¢¼ Hit, Stand
Dealer Hand 21 3¢¾ 8¢¾ J♦ Hit, Stand
20.00 -20.00
11:31:50 Player Hand 13 3¢À T¢À Stand
Dealer Hand 21 Q¢¾ 4¢¾ 7¢¼ Hit, Stand
10.00 -10.00
11:31:36 Player Hand 29 A♦ 8¢À T♦ K¢¾ Hit, Hit, Bust
Dealer Hand 20 K¢¼ J¢¾
5.00 -5.00
11:31:29 Player Hand 14 T¢À 4¢À
Dealer Hand 21 A♦ J¢¾ BlackJack
1.00 -1.00
11:31:17 Player Hand 18 K♦ 8¢À Stand
Dealer Hand 20 A♦ 5¢À 4♦ Hit, Stand
1.00 -1.00
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:36:56 PM permalink
on line site = cheating. That is the correct answer.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:42:00 PM permalink
It is hard to make a case for cheating with 12 hands only.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
mazejackson
mazejackson
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:44:51 PM permalink
Wizard,

Do you read that log? What are the odds of that happening?
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:46:59 PM permalink
Streaks are common in BJ. Many years ago I made the mistake of going to AC on a Sunday afternoon with my pregnant wife.
New york had some sort of Monday Holiday and the casinos were jammed. BJ was $10 minimum. Wife was tired and at 1 am sat down next to me at BJ table. gave her a hundred to play with. She knew very little and on any close decision I would tell her what to do.

Long story short, at 6 am I was down $720, she was up $840. Sitting next to each other, I could not win, she could not lose !
pokerface
pokerface
Joined: May 9, 2010
  • Threads: 12
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July 10th, 2012 at 12:47:30 PM permalink
I myself once lost more than 20 hands in a row in a real casino.
But I didn't believe I was cheated because many other players on the same table
had normal wins and losses, I was just in sheer bad luck.
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
mazejackson
mazejackson
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 6
July 10th, 2012 at 12:55:48 PM permalink
If I was in a casino or playing regular black jack, I think I'd be a little different. In this game I was looking at both dealer cards.. and there wasn't a single push loss.
mazejackson
mazejackson
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 6
July 10th, 2012 at 12:56:22 PM permalink
What are the odds of the dealer out drawing me 12 hands in row?
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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July 10th, 2012 at 1:11:07 PM permalink
The probability of a net loss on one hand of regular BJ is around 49%. I know in dbl exposure you lose ties, but as BJs only pay 1-1 and you have more knowledge when doubling, I think it's safe to assume the 49% loss % is about the same in dbl exposure.

The probability of losing 12 in a row starting with your next hand is ~.49^12 = 0.000192, which is 1 in 5220.

BUT, the probability of seeing a losing streak of 12 goes up the more and more you play. You said you've played a lot on this site. Let's say you play 1 hour a day for a month. You played 10 hands in less than 2 minutes according to that log, which is 300 hands an hour. That's 9000 hands in 1 month.

The probability of NOT seeing a 12-loss streak in 9000 hands is about 0.178

That is, you have an 82%+ chance of seeing that type of loss once a month.

This forum has successfully helped people identify sites that were cheating, but this is not enough evidence.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Nareed
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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July 10th, 2012 at 1:26:20 PM permalink
We need an 11th Commandment from the Wizard: If you think an online casino is cheating, STOP PLAYING THERE!
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal

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