BJ Table Rules - Too Good to be True?

Hello, I found a casino which is not in Nevada that offers the following Blackjack rules on certain days. Seems too good to be true.

6 decks
Blackjack pays 2:1 if bet is $200 or less
Stand on S17
Double after split
Double on any first two cards
Resplit to 4 hands
Resplit aces
Late surrender
Early surrender against an ace

I calculate the player advantage to be

-.00285 + .0227 + .0039 = .02375 or 2.375%

What am I missing here? I'm thinking about trying to do an Ace-5 count or maybe I should just flat bet. My bankroll is small. Thanks in advance for your advice and/or comments.

I'm sure it's too good to be true.

If not, tell me where it is and I'll be there this weekend.

Of course, if it is true, all the pros will have been there and cleaned it out before I can make it there anyway.

Don't worry about counting. Just use basic strategy and play 18 hours a day until they wise up.

The Wizards BJ HA calculator brings up a result of 0.28507% before you add in early surrender.

Early surrender is worth +0.39%

I think that works out as -0.10493

So would be a player advantage of around 0.1 percent.

But it is 4 a.m. here.

And my math sucks.

So if any of the people that know math could show me how to work it out i would be grateful.

Croup - I don't think you were counting the 2-1 BJ. I'm too lazy to go through the whole thing, but the original posters calc looked right.

Yup, definately missed that. looks like the first figure was right after all.

Quote: sneakygood

I calculate the player advantage to be 2.375%

What am I missing here? I'm thinking about trying to do an Ace-5 count or maybe I should just flat bet. My bankroll is small. Thanks in advance for your advice and/or comments.

I come up with the same figure by combining the output from the Wizard's calculator with the figures in the table of rule variations.

There is probably some other rule that you aren't aware of yet. It could be that ties lose, or 10's have been removed from the deck, or something else. Then again, it might just be a really juicy promotion!

Personally, I would recommend flat betting.

Thanks for everyone's comments and advice! Is the recommendation for flat betting with no ace-5 counting so as to not draw any attention from the casino personnel? If I flat bet can someone guide me as to what percentage of my bankroll to use? I am thinking of betting approximately 2.27% of my bankroll as it varies.

Quote: sneakygood

Thanks for everyone's comments and advice! Is the recommendation for flat betting with no ace-5 counting so as to not draw any attention from the casino personnel? If I flat bet can someone guide me as to what percentage of my bankroll to use? I am thinking of betting approximately 2.27% of my bankroll as it varies.

I suggest flat betting in the event that it is the real thing (and if it is, then you already have a huge advantage). If you're counting cards, you'll probably only add like 0.05% to 0.20% to your advantage. Personally I wouldn't consider that extra tiny bit worth the risk of killing the golden goose (either by being backed off or having the promotion killed), since the huge advantage can already be enjoyed with innocent-looking flat bets... but that's just my opinion.

I find this game very hard to believe as no casino managers could be that stupid. I suspect that the player loses certain ties.

agreed with pacomartin. Something else in the House's favor has been overlooked. No 10-spots, or tied 17 lose, etc.

Ace-Five in this presumed OP situation should bet 2 if the score is zero or better and 1 at other times, just to see if the situation is the "real-deal". Pay attention to the deck for missing 10-spots, and check the ties at all scores. The game might be Pontoon, so 5-card Charlies also pay 2:1, and all ties will lose.

Good luck

I went to the casino on a Monday and played Blackjack at the $2-$50 table. They only pay 2:1 Blackjack on Mon, Tue and Wed. The rules were exactly as I stated in my original post. I was told by the dealer that no cards have been removed and ties were a push. Me and my buddy played for 12 hours in one day and I estimated that I played about 750 hands considering the fact that I played two hands about 25% of the time. They were laid back and played somewhat slowly. I played basic strategy for the rules in place and my bet varied from $5 to $25 with approximately a $12 average. I ended up $12.50 ahead. I realize that this result does not mean much statistically.

It is an Indian tribe casino and has almost 200 times as many slot machines as Blackjack tables. I'm thinking they may be running this promotion to attract people and make up the difference on the slot machines. There is another casino about .3 miles down the road that's a nicer facility.

What is even more incredible is that they would set aside a few small chips each time before they dealt hands. We were curious and asked why. The dealer said that they must pay the state 50 cents per hand as a tax! They usually collect it from the player, but this month they are paying it themselves as part of a promotion. This one promotion applies 7 days a week for now. This all seems very odd to me.

Is there a good statistical way to count for missing tens or aces? Is it very likely they would do this and not tell the player?

I forgot to mention something. Each time a player got a blackjack, the dealer would yell out the value of the blackjack and the pit boss would write it in a note book. When I asked why, he said that they lost a lot of money on a previous promotion on a different card game; therefore, they were documenting their 2:1 blackjack costs.

Yeah this is really really weird. 50 cents a hand is absolutely obnoxious, I mean that's at the very least a 1% tax on the table max. Leading to a house disadvantage in the 3-4% range and probably even a house advantage for stupid players. I know you already have been asked and responded, but are you positive it wasn't spanish 21 or something? This casino is like a reverse slot machine.

Lying to you about the 10s and aces would be criminal, unless you were in Canada because as we know anything goes up there.

I'd pay the 50c a hand if I were playing $100-200 a hand at those rules! (He said earlier the max for the 2:1 BJ was 200 bucks). Almost 3% player advantage? Still over 2% PA at $100 or more!

No, it was not Spanish 21. It was definitely Blackjack. I played something called Fun 21 on a cruise ship in 2006, which I think may be close to or the same game as Spanish 21.

We played until 1:45am when they closed. I noticed the high limit table, only $5-$500, was empty late in the night. It seems like the bigger players would just be eating this promotion up. It doesn't make sense to me. Granted, this is in a relatively rural area. The place was very laid back is the best way I can explain it. Everyone seemed to know each other, dealers and players that is.

Quote: sneakygood

It is an Indian tribe casino and has almost 200 times as many slot machines as Blackjack tables. I'm thinking they may be running this promotion to attract people and make up the difference on the slot machines. There is another casino about .3 miles down the road that's a nicer facility.

My guess is this is in Oklahoma, but could easily be wrong. When it is over, I hope you'll share where it was. I may ask them about it over the phone.

This might be a situation like I encountered in Iowa, that I wrote about in my blackjack appendix 11. When a casino pulls the game off the floor with a progressive jackpot (that has more than just seed money in it) in most places they have to give that money back to the players somehow. That was the case at the Winnevegas casino, where they added nice bonuses to their blackjack game, resulting in a 1.89% player advantage on a $10 bet.

Their is a casino here in Indiana with same rules except BJ pays 3:2 and no late surrender.You can surrender against any card.These are e-tables with live digi-dealers as they call them.Max bet for these tables set at $145.They are continuous shuffle tables,so you may want to check and see if they are doing that at the indian casino.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: sneakygood

It is an Indian tribe casino and has almost 200 times as many slot machines as Blackjack tables. I'm thinking they may be running this promotion to attract people and make up the difference on the slot machines. There is another casino about .3 miles down the road that's a nicer facility.

My guess is this is in Oklahoma, but could easily be wrong. When it is over, I hope you'll share where it was. I may ask them about it over the phone.

This might be a situation like I encountered in Iowa, that I wrote about in my blackjack appendix 11. When a casino pulls the game off the floor with a progressive jackpot (that has more than just seed money in it) in most places they have to give that money back to the players somehow. That was the case at the Winnevegas casino, where they added nice bonuses to their blackjack game, resulting in a 1.89% player advantage on a $10 bet.

Yes, Wizard, you are correct. It's the Comanche Red River Casino in Devol, Oklahoma. They stopped running the promotion on March 1 and started another promotion which is not nearly as good. 6-7-8 pays 2:1, a suited 6-7-8 pays 5:1, and Spades 6-7-8 pays 10:1. No 50 cent commission either or I would not be playing. If you call them please let us know.

I called them on March 1 to ask them if their 2:1 Blackjack promotion is still going on and they said yes it has been extended for the month of March. It was also on their website under Table Games as late as last night. It is not anymore, probably because I complained about it today. I was there today and it really hacked me off when I found out they misinformed me over the phone and on their website. I drove almost 3 hours to get there and almost 3 hours back.