sneakygood
sneakygood
Joined: Feb 18, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 7:45:13 PM permalink
Hello, I found a casino which is not in Nevada that offers the following Blackjack rules on certain days. Seems too good to be true.

6 decks
Blackjack pays 2:1 if bet is $200 or less
Stand on S17
Double after split
Double on any first two cards
Resplit to 4 hands
Resplit aces
Late surrender
Early surrender against an ace

I calculate the player advantage to be

-.00285 + .0227 + .0039 = .02375 or 2.375%

What am I missing here? I'm thinking about trying to do an Ace-5 count or maybe I should just flat bet. My bankroll is small. Thanks in advance for your advice and/or comments.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 7:57:39 PM permalink
I'm sure it's too good to be true.

If not, tell me where it is and I'll be there this weekend.

Of course, if it is true, all the pros will have been there and cleaned it out before I can make it there anyway.

Don't worry about counting. Just use basic strategy and play 18 hours a day until they wise up.
Croupier
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 8:02:32 PM permalink
The Wizards BJ HA calculator brings up a result of 0.28507% before you add in early surrender.

Early surrender is worth +0.39%

I think that works out as -0.10493

So would be a player advantage of around 0.1 percent.

But it is 4 a.m. here.

And my math sucks.

So if any of the people that know math could show me how to work it out i would be grateful.
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FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 8:31:53 PM permalink
Croup - I don't think you were counting the 2-1 BJ. I'm too lazy to go through the whole thing, but the original posters calc looked right.
Croupier
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 8:40:08 PM permalink
Yup, definately missed that. looks like the first figure was right after all.
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JB
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JB
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February 18th, 2010 at 8:50:07 PM permalink
Quote: sneakygood

I calculate the player advantage to be 2.375%

What am I missing here? I'm thinking about trying to do an Ace-5 count or maybe I should just flat bet. My bankroll is small. Thanks in advance for your advice and/or comments.


I come up with the same figure by combining the output from the Wizard's calculator with the figures in the table of rule variations.

There is probably some other rule that you aren't aware of yet. It could be that ties lose, or 10's have been removed from the deck, or something else. Then again, it might just be a really juicy promotion!

Personally, I would recommend flat betting.
sneakygood
sneakygood
Joined: Feb 18, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 9:29:55 PM permalink
Thanks for everyone's comments and advice! Is the recommendation for flat betting with no ace-5 counting so as to not draw any attention from the casino personnel? If I flat bet can someone guide me as to what percentage of my bankroll to use? I am thinking of betting approximately 2.27% of my bankroll as it varies.
JB
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JB
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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February 18th, 2010 at 9:57:34 PM permalink
Quote: sneakygood

Thanks for everyone's comments and advice! Is the recommendation for flat betting with no ace-5 counting so as to not draw any attention from the casino personnel? If I flat bet can someone guide me as to what percentage of my bankroll to use? I am thinking of betting approximately 2.27% of my bankroll as it varies.


I suggest flat betting in the event that it is the real thing (and if it is, then you already have a huge advantage). If you're counting cards, you'll probably only add like 0.05% to 0.20% to your advantage. Personally I wouldn't consider that extra tiny bit worth the risk of killing the golden goose (either by being backed off or having the promotion killed), since the huge advantage can already be enjoyed with innocent-looking flat bets... but that's just my opinion.
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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February 18th, 2010 at 10:03:12 PM permalink
I find this game very hard to believe as no casino managers could be that stupid. I suspect that the player loses certain ties.
NandB
NandB
Joined: Jan 26, 2010
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February 24th, 2010 at 12:59:02 PM permalink
agreed with pacomartin. Something else in the House's favor has been overlooked. No 10-spots, or tied 17 lose, etc.

Ace-Five in this presumed OP situation should bet 2 if the score is zero or better and 1 at other times, just to see if the situation is the "real-deal". Pay attention to the deck for missing 10-spots, and check the ties at all scores. The game might be Pontoon, so 5-card Charlies also pay 2:1, and all ties will lose.

Good luck
To err is human. To air is Jordan. To arrr is pirate.

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