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duckmankilla
duckmankilla
Joined: Nov 25, 2011
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March 15th, 2012 at 5:17:46 PM permalink
Put it this way. You have just lost 99% of your chips and are down to something like 100 chips with blinds of 2k/4k. You are in the money already and you can move up if you simply survive. 2 players move all-in in front of you and you have pocket aces. The difference between 300 and 100 chips is insignificant as you are going to need a ton of double ups to even be considered in contention, so in this scenario there is no reason to risk losing your last 100 chips and the correct play is to fold and simply hope that the shorter stack of the two all-in players loses the pot.

It's the only viable way to increase your winnings as you are just trying to maximize your money at that point.
Triplell
Triplell
Joined: Aug 13, 2010
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March 15th, 2012 at 5:25:38 PM permalink
Quote: duckmankilla

Put it this way. You have just lost 99% of your chips and are down to something like 100 chips with blinds of 2k/4k. You are in the money already and you can move up if you simply survive. 2 players move all-in in front of you and you have pocket aces. The difference between 300 and 100 chips is insignificant as you are going to need a ton of double ups to even be considered in contention, so in this scenario there is no reason to risk losing your last 100 chips and the correct play is to fold and simply hope that the shorter stack of the two all-in players loses the pot.

It's the only viable way to increase your winnings as you are just trying to maximize your money at that point.



I created a separate thread so we don't get off topic on this one:

Would you fold pocket aces?[\link]
mrjjj
mrjjj
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
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March 15th, 2012 at 10:09:50 PM permalink
For the people that dont play the lotto because of the huge odds (I'm talking the big prizes), I heard a great definition years ago, I highly agree with it. We'll take MegaMillions (for Friday), its around 200 million.


If you spend $3 on a ticket and lets say you dont win a dime, will losing that $3 'change your life'? Of course not, not even a dent in your wallet.

If you were to WIN the grand prize.....would 70-250 million 'change your LIFESTYLE'? Yes is the common answer.
Of course the fellas that ENJOY arguing, will say NOPE, it wouldn't change a thing (lol).

Point being, risk vs. reward !!!!

Go ahead, bash it....blah blah blah. I'm a big believer in this post.

Hey, I throw a few bucks at it (dont ask), who knows. It sure would be a nice hit though!!!

Ken
thomasgrayson
thomasgrayson
Joined: Dec 13, 2011
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March 20th, 2012 at 7:35:49 PM permalink
Reading this one seems to be a real good thing would work out well in the long run. I just hope that things would work out well for the long run as I read a lot of good tips here. Thanks!
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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March 20th, 2012 at 10:15:24 PM permalink
Way-back machine time:

When I was in college, NY State came out with Lotto. College kids blew 20-50 bucks a draw. I would spend $12 when the JP got to $25 M. There were 6 sets of balls used lables A to F and each draw rotated the set. There was a gaming rag for a buck I would buy that illustrated hot and not for each set. I played the hot 12 numbers, and was profitable in the 3 years of college play. I would say not all things are as equal as you might think. 35 years later, there is technology and improvements in manufacture to eliminate the need of rotating sets.

BTW I hit several 4+ bonus for $300+ and quite a few 4 only or 50-70. Definately worth it then. The GF and I shopped in NYC more than a few times... I can still smell the Argentinian beef.

In general, today, pick your favorite numbers and include some over 31 (way too many people play calendar numbers). I like primes.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Boney526
Boney526
Joined: Sep 25, 2011
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March 26th, 2012 at 6:47:28 PM permalink
You know, back when I was first getting into gambling (OK, I've only gambled outside of a couple few dollar home poker games for about a year, and even now, not very much) I was playing a lot of lottery, since that's around, and I hadn't really put the time into understanding the games. So I read about this guy, and I tried playing a couple of systems. Anyway, long story short, good luck in the beginning ended up getting me back in the end, and I've now spent more time understanding the games I play.

As you can imagine, I don't really play much lottery anymore. Occasionally, I buy a single lottery ticket if there's a big enough jackpot (it doesn't have to be +EV, just enough that if I'm in a store, I might spend a dollar. So like 600,000 on my states Pick 5, 10 million on pick 6 and 300 million for MM)


But that got me thinking, if somebody was going to play the lottery, only at a positive EV (when the Jackpot is high enough) it may be beneficial to pick their own numbers. For two reasons...

1) You could pick numbers that you think other people are LESS likely to play, to reduce the chance that IF you win, you'd have to share it
2) You could potentially make certain patterns that reduce variance, by making lower prizes more likely. This is entirely possible, but far too costly for the average player. "Abbreviated wheels" make lower prizes more likely. I'd imagine most of these make it impossible to win more than one second or third prize, but you'd be able to customize them to a pretty good degree.

---- As a side note, most of the variance comes from the Jackpot, so this effect would probably be pretty small.
jiggles
jiggles
Joined: Sep 18, 2013
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September 18th, 2013 at 11:15:30 AM permalink
Quote: YoDiceRoll11

So my local news ran a video of this guy in FL who had won the lottery seven times. He describes as having a method.
What do you guys think? Can anyone with some math confirm that using your own numbers and using a random quick gives you the same exact chances?



His name is Richard Lustig and think he's charming. He's about my height (4' 0") and has a nicely trimmed beard. His book is No. 1 on the Amazon lottery best seller list despite being $30, which is about $1 a page. The book is a gyp and there are a lot of reviews saying so. He has appeared a lot of TV shows such as Good Morning America. There is another book on Amazon for only $3.95 that debunks him and a lot of the others. It seems that two of his winnings were on scratch-off tickets and three were in Florida Fantasy 5, which everybody wins sooner or later. He thinks he has a system because he has been lucky. That could happen to anyone. I would love to meet him!
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 18th, 2013 at 1:11:07 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

If he said "you can't increase your chances by buying a random lottery ticket," then he is right. If he said "using your own numbers makes your chances higher," then he is wrong.

If I ever played the lottery, I would use a quick pick to lower my chances of matching another winning ticket. Although my chances of winning wouldn't be higher, the probability of a larger prize would increase. The problem with picking your own numbers is that many people pick birthdays or patterns on the ticket. For instance, if you picked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with a power ball of 1, and you won, you would probably split that prize with 25 people.



I agree with you about this. Although, rather than using a Quick Pick to get the numbers, (and still possibly getting low numbers) would it not be better to deliberately pick high numbers in no particular pattern?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
puzzlenut
puzzlenut
Joined: Sep 19, 2013
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December 8th, 2013 at 7:50:45 AM permalink
The best way to evaluate Richard Lustig's book and his methods is to read the reviews which you will find on his Amazon listing. Formerly they were balanced between positive and negative, but now are predominantly negative. The reviews are listed in the order of those voted most helpful and these have the titles "Save Your Money," "Talk About a RIP OFF!," "I Am Definitely A Fool!," and "You Are a Sucker If You Buy This." Nevertheless, the book remains at or near the top of the best seller list in its category.

There is a book that gives details of his winnings and offers a probabilistic explanation of his results. It is available in paperback here and also is available in two editions in Kindle format from Amazon. It reveals that only four of his winnings actually were lotteries and that three of these were in Florida Fantasy Five. This lottery holds the record for consistent multiple winners and is the only reported lottery in which a sequence has been drawn. It was 14-15-16-17-18.

The only piece of his advice I would recommend is not to use quick picks, since there have been instances of ticket machines issuing duplicate quick pick numbers. His basic strategy is to choose a set of numbers that has not won before and if you win, to use the same set consistently thereafter. He is a lottery addict and I suspect that either he already has or soon will exhaust his winnings on ticket purchases and that thenceforth his buying will be funded by the profits from his book. Its excellent sales despite the bad reviews are a marketing phenomenon.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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December 8th, 2013 at 9:17:55 AM permalink
Quote: jiggles

He thinks he has a system because he has been lucky.



Well, he has proved there is one betting system that even the Wizard can agree can work:

Gamble and get extremely lucky. Write a book and sell systems about how anybody can do it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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