Finally a Betting System the Wizard Can Approve of?

this just came to me.

You go to the New Mexico casino Santa Ana Star that has a field bet that pays 3 to 1 on boxcars and snake eyes. In general this bet has zero house edge, but if 'boxcars' hits more often than normal, you should be ahead.

Simultaneously, you play the dark side. The casino has roughly 1.4% edge on this, and so would you, except you are dragged down by the number of times the '12' pushes. Hitting '12' a lot on the Don't Pass line would be bad, except, well, on the other simultaneous bet you want that. Hmmm.

OK, the EV of the field bet is zero, and the EV of the Don't is - 1.4%, so it won't work I guess, but ... why not?

Not bad, but not any better than laying odds on the don't. You're simply pressing on a free bet, the same as you would do with the odds. There would be less variance, though, since the field is less volatile than the odds bet. Not a bad system. When is the next WoV meetup in New Mexico?

Hitting a 7 a lot on the come-out (a more likely outcome, by far) means you lose both bets...not to mention if a 6 or 8 rolls, you lose the field and then have to hope for a 7-out...yes, it's in your favor by that point, but not as much as a 4/10.

I guess if a lot of outside numbers are hitting it would work for a while, but eventually the above scenarios are bound to happen and drag you back down to even (at best).

Quote: odiousgambit

this just came to me.

You go to the New Mexico casino Santa Ana Star that has a field bet that pays 3 to 1 on boxcars and snake eyes. In general this bet has zero house edge, but if 'boxcars' hits more often than normal, you should be ahead.

Simultaneously, you play the dark side. The casino has roughly 1.4% edge on this, and so would you, except you are dragged down by the number of times the '12' pushes. Hitting '12' a lot on the Don't Pass line would be bad, except, well, on the other simultaneous bet you want that. Hmmm.

OK, the EV of the field bet is zero, and the EV of the Don't is - 1.4%, so it won't work I guess, but ... why not?

Because any combination of the numbers, "-0.014" and "0" will add up to a negative sum, as long as the number "-0.014" occurs at least once.

If you're concerned/confident that 12's will show up more often than 1/36, you're far better off hopping the 12 on come-outs, especially at Santa Ana.

As a Don't player I'm far more concerned about the yo and about seven showing up at the "wrong" times.

Quote: 7outlineaway

I'm far more concerned about the yo and about seven showing up at the "wrong" times.

For the yo, that field bet makes it a push!

stay tuned, definitely will have wincraps do some simulation on this. Will blog it.

Quote: odiousgambit

You go to the New Mexico ...

Count me out right there!
Aside from New Mexico being the Land of Disenchantment in many ways you ever try breathing at those altitudes? Driving on those roads? Casinos in New Mexico wouldn't have 25k chips to be stolen at gunpoint, but if a robbery did take place the Indians wouldn't know what to do about it. Its all Manana ... unless you want free booze and then its pretty much Never.

As a break from the craps you could go to an outdoor jewelry sale and get cheated buying tourquoise from Japan.

Of course you could always go to Santa Fe and buy real estate ... I was once in a Long Beach, CA bookstore and in one day alone four bedraggled people came in seeking a guide book to Santa Fe because they wanted to move there. I wonder if those hippies got rich yet or not.

Quote: FleaStiff

Count me out right there!
Aside from New Mexico being the Land of Disenchantment in many ways you ever try breathing at those altitudes? Driving on those roads? Casinos in New Mexico wouldn't have 25k chips to be stolen at gunpoint, but if a robbery did take place the Indians wouldn't know what to do about it. Its all Manana ... unless you want free booze and then its pretty much Never.

As a break from the craps you could go to an outdoor jewelry sale and get cheated buying tourquoise from Japan.

Of course you could always go to Santa Fe and buy real estate ... I was once in a Long Beach, CA bookstore and in one day alone four bedraggled people came in seeking a guide book to Santa Fe because they wanted to move there. I wonder if those hippies got rich yet or not.

Wow. What did New Mexico ever do to you to deserve this?

Also, I fail to understand how you would get "cheated" simply because the semi-precious gems had come from some other country. Turquoise is turquoise.

34 million rolls and over 10 million come-outs later, wincraps has indicated the faithful gambler only betting this way, on the dark line with a simultaneous field bet with the triple pay on '2' and '12', one unit each, has lost 101,062 units for a first trial.

In a second trial, with the same RNG set and number of rolls etc, but betting nothing on the field, only the don't on come-out, he loses 97,313 units. Risking more money in the first trial had an effect, but not the one we'd like, it seems.

I think I will skip more of these trials!

I am still going to mess around with short trials, to see if I can get a handle on what sessions would be like.