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Wiggins
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September 13th, 2022 at 2:14:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned my post about baccarat players using patterns because we all know they do it. If you play Baccarat yourself you do it and you know you do it. How is that different than playing patterns in roulette. Why is one 0K and the other not okay. Now listen for the sound of crickets on this



I'm also surprised no one responded before. Let me be the first one to say: it's not different. Betting based on patterns and streaks is nonsense, both in roulette and baccarat. Studying the scoreboard and trying to predict the next outcome should be a form of entertainment, nothing more. But most baccarat players are living in a world of delusion much like yours.
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 2:49:52 PM permalink
Quote: unJon



I’d love to ask those questions but was patiently waiting for you to answer my first round of questions.
link to original post



I thought I answered those, give me the link to the post it if not I will answer them.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 2:52:28 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz



But hey you are seeing things that aren't there like patterns you say don't actually exist which you exploit.
link to original post



Congratulations! Big surprise, not, I get to ignore all your posts in this thread from now on because I don't have time to play your games.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 3:08:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

But most baccarat players are living in a world of delusion much like yours.
link to original post



Naw, they just don't have much to go on with the patterns they see because they only have one source. I have multiple sources for patterns because there are so many even chance bets in roulette. Your opinion is meaningless to me because it's based on non experience. The only opinion I care about is the casinos and they pay me every time I play. That's all the validation I need. Everybody has an opinion but nobody has the experience to form an accurate opinion. Nobody has said I tried that for a year betting patterns and trends and I can tell you it doesn't work. Nobody says that because if they had tried it they would see that it does work. At the most still try it for a day or a week but they won't study it, they don't have the time or the patience. When I discovered this in 2004 it started working for me almost immediately and I built on it from there. It's very much a learned skill much like playing the piano. The more you do it the better you get at it.

The best anecdotal story I have about patterns in baccarat is there's a middle-aged Indian gentleman at my local casino who makes nothing but $1,000 bets when he plays because that's the maximum. Sometimes he wins a lot of money, sometimes he wins a little money, sometimes he breaks even, but he very very seldom losses very much because he quits when he starts to lose. I know a couple of people who work at that casino and they both told me they tolerate this guy winning so much money from them because he's already won over a quarter of a million and they want their money back so they're waiting for him to have a losing streak which he's never going to have. I could tell by the way he plays the patterns that he does the same thing I do, he doesn't bet every hand he only bets when he feels he has a really good chance of winning. They also let him get away with a flagrant rule violation in that he will give $1,000 to the person sitting next to him and they will bet it for him so he's actually betting $2,000 a hand sometimes. If I try that they would stop me immediately because you can't give your chips to other players. I have watched this guy play many times and he is uncannily good at knowing when to get out. He knows when a pattern has run out of steam and many times I've seen him start betting the opposite and he's right far more often than wrong. I love Baccarat but there's just not that many pattern making opportunities to exploit.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
darkoz
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September 13th, 2022 at 3:15:13 PM permalink
So I outsmarted EB by pointing out his ridiculously contradictory post and now he has me blocked and won't answer me

Because he knows how correct I am and how silly I am making him look.

Although honestly he is doing a pretty good job of that on his own.
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camapl
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September 13th, 2022 at 3:46:02 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Did you miss the part where I said about 14 times now that I only flat bet even chances? I never ever ever ever ever ever bet anything but even chances. Ever. And having an 80% hit rate is not the same as your edge. My edge is much lower than 80%. Can you figure it out or do I have to do it for you.

I find it fascinating that almost nobody is concerned with the nitty gritty of how to arrive at the decision of where to bet, almost everybody is nitpicking the dialogue and the math. Things that ultimately mean almost nothing compared to how you arrive at where to place your bet in order to win.
link to original post



Roughly how many spins do you play virtually before placing a bet? (average and/or range would be helpful)

What percent of the times that you play virtually do you decide to place a bet?
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darkoz
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September 13th, 2022 at 4:42:40 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

Quote: EvenBob

Did you miss the part where I said about 14 times now that I only flat bet even chances? I never ever ever ever ever ever bet anything but even chances. Ever. And having an 80% hit rate is not the same as your edge. My edge is much lower than 80%. Can you figure it out or do I have to do it for you.

I find it fascinating that almost nobody is concerned with the nitty gritty of how to arrive at the decision of where to bet, almost everybody is nitpicking the dialogue and the math. Things that ultimately mean almost nothing compared to how you arrive at where to place your bet in order to win.
link to original post



Roughly how many spins do you play virtually before placing a bet? (average and/or range would be helpful)

What percent of the times that you play virtually do you decide to place a bet?
link to original post



He has answered that already.

As much as 2-3 days
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EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 4:50:24 PM permalink
Quote: camapl


Roughly how many spins do you play virtually before placing a bet? (average and/or range would be helpful)

What percent of the times that you play virtually do you decide to place a bet?
link to original post



I usually bet 8 or 12 times virtually to see if it's playing my game. It's about 50% of the time that I can make a bet. But it's not linear, there are days when I can never see a bet and other days when I see them every time I look. You just never know. It's a huge advantage knowing when not to play because it protects your bankroll. You can never get stuck in a losing streak it's not possible because when it stops playing your game you stop playing.

It's like a sine wave where it goes up and down favorable to unfavorable back to favorable but it's not predictable you never know when it's going to happen. There are no hard-and-fast rules you can ever apply. to random outcomes. Patience is very much a virtue because some days it's very frustrating and I feel like betting anyway which is totally stupid and I know that so I don't do it. My point of playing is not only to win but it is to expose my bankroll to the casinos infinite bankroll as little as possible. This is the polar opposite of what the casino wants , they want constant exposure of your bankroll because if you do that they know they can get most of it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
SOOPOO
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September 13th, 2022 at 5:01:42 PM permalink
Bob, since it’s now online and doesn’t require a drive, do you win the one unit 7 days a week? Have you considered doing it twice a day so you can make 2 units a day?

How do you pick what a ‘unit’ is?

Have any of the multiple sites you are using revised or limited your play?

Do you get ‘points’ or ‘free bets’ or other stuff from your play?

I’ve answered these questions with regards to my online sports betting. Interested to compare to online casino play.
Wizard
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September 13th, 2022 at 5:27:18 PM permalink
Let me try to catch up here. I admit I haven't read every post, but skimmed them.

EB asked for questions. I apologize if this has been asked, but I can't seem to get a clear answer. My question is what does the 80% refer to? Here are some possible answers:

A. Even money bets.
B. Combination of bets (I could easily achieve 80% by betting on 31 numbers).
C. Session net win (I could easily achieve this with a goal of winning one unit, with a 7-unit bankroll, using a 3-step Martingale. To be specific, my probability of a winning session would be 1-(20/38)^3 = 85.42%).
D. None of the above (explain).

I openly invite EB to let me observe a session using some kind of screen-sharing product, like Zoom or Skype. However, I expect he will find some reason to decline.

As to the moderator conflict, let's try to discuss our differences and questionable actions behind the scenes.

As to ridiculous claims, let me make clear they are allowed on this forum. Alan's 18 yo's has set the precedent on that. Those who disagree are welcome to challenge the claims or ignore them.

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gandler
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September 13th, 2022 at 5:39:28 PM permalink
If you have a system that wins online roulette why would you post it to a site that is owned by some online casinos (and watched by many others)? They obviously know who you are (and can easily link you to here), would you not be banned (or at least restricted) if you truly had a winning system?

This just does not seem like a good move unless you are retiring from the system and just want post your past results (or if the system does not exist). It just seems like a way to draw a lot of attention to yourself which a winning system user would strive to avoid.
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 7:23:39 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Bob, since it’s now online and doesn’t require a drive, do you win the one unit 7 days a week? Have you considered doing it twice a day so you can make 2 units a day?

How do you pick what a ‘unit’ is?

Have any of the multiple sites you are using revised or limited your play?

Do you get ‘points’ or ‘free bets’ or other stuff from your play?

I’ve answered these questions with regards to my online sports betting. Interested to compare to online casino play.
link to original post



I try and play several sessions a day at different casinos. I arrive at my bet amount by calculating how much time I have left in the month to make my goal. None of the casinos have said a word to me about anything yet. I'm always getting free offers for bonus points but I don't use bonus points because they're nothing but trouble.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 7:34:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me try to catch up here. I admit I haven't read every post, but skimmed them.

EB asked for questions. I apologize if this has been asked, but I can't seem to get a clear answer. My question is what does the 80% refer to?
link to original post



It refers to the fact that in the long term if I bet 10 times I'm going to win eight of them on the 1st bet. If I bet 100 times I'm going to win 80 of them on the 1st bet. Flat betting even chances only. I only ever bet the even chances I've never made an inside bet in Roulette in my life. For me the inside does not even exist I don't even see it. 80% only applies to online casinos because they show me 90 spins in an hour this gives me far more betting opportunities then brick-and-mortar Casinos. Like three times more. And I also have multiple platforms to choose from if one of them isn't working. It's still very hit-and-miss there are times when I never find anything to bet on. I'm looking for very specific circumstances and sometimes they just do not occur. But because I'm at home I have unlimited time to play any time of day I want. In a brick-and-mortar casino I'm stuck in the short time I'm there with whatever they offer. So my hit rate in the casino is far less that it is online

I have no interest in anybody seeing me play I already did that it didn't work out. Even though I consider you to be fair and honest probably the most fair and honest person I know, you would think the same thing the other person thought that it's just luck. I would have to do it so many times for you before you were convinced that it's just not worth it to me. Like I keep saying in a trite way, I convince the casino of what I do every time I play because they pay me as confirmation. That's all I need.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 7:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

If you have a system that wins online roulette why would you post it to a site that is owned by some online casinos (and watched by many others)? They obviously know who you are (and can easily link you to here), would you not be banned (or at least restricted) if you truly had a winning system?

This just does not seem like a good move unless you are retiring from the system and just want post your past results (or if the system does not exist). It just seems like a way to draw a lot of attention to yourself which a winning system user would strive to avoid.
link to original post



I don't have a system I have a method. And I'm not posting the method I'm taking questions about it. You think and online casino is any less skeptical of what I'm saying than anybody here? They truly believe that roulette can't be beat believe me they think I'm full of crap even more than most of the people here. And I do not post the stuff to draw attention, that's ridiculous. I do it because having conversations about this improves my game it keeps it in the forefront of my mind, keeps me thinking about it. I tried this on another Forum but there's just not that many members there so I thought I'd try it here because you have a lot of members. I went from never talking about it to answering almost any question about it. We'll see what happens, my hopes are not that high. Everybody has an opinion and everybody has a criticism based on no experience at all. So they have no idea what questions to ask. They're all full of grandiose assumptions that have no basis in reality. People who actually look into this, take the time to do it, always come away saying wait a minute, there's something to this. But it takes a lot of time a lot of dedication and almost nobody is willing to do that.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
darkoz
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September 13th, 2022 at 8:19:41 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Gandler

If you have a system that wins online roulette why would you post it to a site that is owned by some online casinos (and watched by many others)? They obviously know who you are (and can easily link you to here), would you not be banned (or at least restricted) if you truly had a winning system?

This just does not seem like a good move unless you are retiring from the system and just want post your past results (or if the system does not exist). It just seems like a way to draw a lot of attention to yourself which a winning system user would strive to avoid.
link to original post



I don't have a system I have a method. And I'm not posting the method I'm taking questions about it. You think and online casino is any less skeptical of what I'm saying than anybody here? They truly believe that roulette can't be beat believe me they think I'm full of crap even more than most of the people here. And I do not post the stuff to draw attention, that's ridiculous. I do it because having conversations about this improves my game it keeps it in the forefront of my mind, keeps me thinking about it. I tried this on another Forum but there's just not that many members there so I thought I'd try it here because you have a lot of members. I went from never talking about it to answering almost any question about it. We'll see what happens, my hopes are not that high. Everybody has an opinion and everybody has a criticism based on no experience at all. So they have no idea what questions to ask. They're all full of grandiose assumptions that have no basis in reality. People who actually look into this, take the time to do it, always come away saying wait a minute, there's something to this. But it takes a lot of time a lot of dedication and almost nobody is willing to do that.
link to original post



I never thought of the Wizard as someone with no experience in this subject at all.

Wow, you learn something new every day.
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AlanMendelson
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September 13th, 2022 at 8:52:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard



As to ridiculous claims, let me make clear they are allowed on this forum. Alan's 18 yo's has set the precedent on that. Those who disagree are welcome to challenge the claims or ignore them.

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
link to original post



There you go again Wizard insulting and maligning me for no reason.

You could have stopped with "As to ridiculous claims, let me make it clear they are allowed on this forum." You didn't have to continue mentioning how I observed a random shooter roll 18 yos. This is you sneaking in an insult, labeling my report ridiculous. Had you been there you would not have called it ridiculous.

And please don't jump on me saying I am obligated to prove it. Plenty of other claims on this forum are posted freely even though some believe they are ridiculous including claims of massive wins. You single me out and I resent it.
EvenBob
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September 13th, 2022 at 9:28:07 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. -- Carl Sagan
link to original post



But my clams are not extraordinary at all, to me they seem very common. I've been doing this for so long that bumping up to 80% when I can see 90 outcomes an hour seems perfectly logical to me. Because I remember the time when my hit rate was 55% and 60%. And I've seen the logical progression along the way which is not extraordinary at all.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Sep 14, 2022
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AitchTheLetter
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September 14th, 2022 at 12:55:03 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

*snip*
I find it interesting that nobody has mentioned my post about baccarat players using patterns because we all know they do it. If you play Baccarat yourself you do it and you know you do it. How is that different than playing patterns in roulette. Why is one 0K and the other not okay. Now listen for the sound of crickets on this.
link to original post



Pattern betting in any game is silly. But hey, it's your money so go nuts.
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AitchTheLetter
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September 14th, 2022 at 1:16:32 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I have multiple sources for patterns because there are so many even chance bets in roulette.
link to original post



You keep saying "even chance bets". What does this mean? What wagers on a roulette table are considered even chance? I thought the math behind roulette was that no wager has more than 48.6% chance of hitting on any given spin which makes even chances impossible.
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EvenBob
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September 14th, 2022 at 1:51:14 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter



Pattern betting in any game is silly. But hey, it's your money so go nuts.
link to original post



I don't consider making money silly. You just don't know how to do it so you dismiss it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 14th, 2022 at 1:55:56 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter



You keep saying "even chance bets". What does this mean?
link to original post



You know what it means, you just want to nitpick. If you have the edge over the casino like I do, the even chance bets are true even chance.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AitchTheLetter
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September 14th, 2022 at 2:05:40 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



You know what it means, you just want to nitpick. If you have the edge over the casino like I do, the even chance bets are true even chance.
link to original post



No I don't. That is why I am asking the question. My understanding of the math of roulette is that there are no EVEN CHANCE bets. Does your method grant you the extra 1.4% needed on even/odd or red/black or high/low? Since you brought up edge over the casino, what do you estimate your edge to be?
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EvenBob
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September 14th, 2022 at 2:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: AitchTheLetter

Does your method grant you the extra 1.4% needed on even/odd or red/black or high/low? Since you brought up edge over the casino, what do you estimate your edge to be?
link to original post



I don't estimate my edge, I know what it is exactly. It makes every bet I make on the even chances an actual even chance. Just to clarify, they're called even chance bets because they're kind of sort of even chance. Close enough to even chance that nobody cares about nitpicking the math. Except to math nerds of course and they're never happy about anything.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AitchTheLetter
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September 14th, 2022 at 2:31:59 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


I don't estimate my edge, I know what it is exactly.
link to original post



Not for any math reasons, pure curiosity here, what is your edge?
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DogHand
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September 14th, 2022 at 3:02:29 AM permalink
EvenBob,

Let's explore your method.

Say you log in to your favorite online casino and see the following outcomes on the first 12 non-green spins (we're ignoring the green outcomes, as you've said you do):

B,R,R,B,R,R,R,B,B,R,B,R

Do you bet the next spin? If so, do you bet R or B?

In either case (bet or no), WHY do you make that choice? If you choose not to bet, what combination of future outcomes would you need to see to decide to make a bet?

If you prefer a different even-payout wager: for Even-Odd, assume that B=E and R=O; for High-Low, assume B=H and R=L. Did I miss any other even-payout wagers?

Thanks in advance!

Dog Hand

P.S. Does the "Even" in your handle refer to the Even bet in roulette? I never thought about it before.
PokerGrinder
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September 14th, 2022 at 3:25:39 AM permalink
I’m always amazed that each time a system bettor comes on (or in EB’s case comes back) that it becomes the most popular thread. Either the poster whoever they are that is stating they have a system is a troll or delusional and yet we all eat it up like homeless people at a buffet. I used to be guilty of this with Little bow wow’s ridiculous claims but I had to quit it cause it was making me mental, well more mental than I am 😉
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lilredrooster
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September 14th, 2022 at 4:46:28 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder




I’m always amazed that each time a system bettor comes on that it becomes the most popular thread.

we all eat it up like homeless people at a buffet.




that's very true and an excellent observation

I believe that's because so many gamblers are of a certain kind of character type

they want easy money and they want things to be easy - and money management systems are usually easy - much easier than legit ways to get an edge

these system players know they could get an edge if they studied blackjack or sports betting or poker and even machines and how their promos work

but those things are too hard - again - it's easy money they crave



just one other thing - I don't consider EB to be a system player based on what he has posted
I don't think he fits into that category

actually I think all that flocked here were hoping he was a system player - and that he could give them some easy rules to follow
and now they're very disappointed because he cannot do that

that's not an edorsement of his methods - just an observation


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 14, 2022
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SOOPOO
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September 14th, 2022 at 5:39:01 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I’m always amazed that each time a system bettor comes on (or in EB’s case comes back) that it becomes the most popular thread. Either the poster whoever they are that is stating they have a system is a troll or delusional and yet we all eat it up like homeless people at a buffet. I used to be guilty of this with Little bow wow’s ridiculous claims but I had to quit it cause it was making me mental, well more mental than I am 😉
link to original post



It’s human nature. Why do people stop to look at a car crash? I am just trying to figure out why EB is trolling the forum? We don’t know how many days of ‘80% hit rate’ exactly EB is claiming, but it sounds like hundreds and more likely thousands. Hitting 80% correct on an event that happens around 48% of the time over 1000 spins makes 18 yo’s in a row look like child’s play! (I’ll leave it to a math guy to tell me which is more unbelievable!).

PG…. If you (or I) was the owner, chief administrator, king, of this forum we would allow a silly thread like this to start, and once it became obvious that it was just a troll thread we would eliminate it. Mike somehow thinks by putting it in the betting system section it does not bring shame to the overall forum.

I participate because I have lots of time on my hand and it can be fun pointing out each more ludicrous assertion.
Wizard
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September 14th, 2022 at 5:57:06 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Hitting 80% correct on an event that happens around 48% of the time over 1000 spins makes 18 yo’s in a row look like child’s play! (I’ll leave it to a math guy to tell me which is more unbelievable!).
link to original post



The odds are comparable between 18 yo's and an 80%+ success rate over 228 even-money roulette bets on a double-zero wheel.

To be specific, the odds of the 18 yo's are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,600,000,000.

The odds of 181 or more wins in 228 bets (79.39% win rate) are 1 in 33,820,836,576,546,000,000,000

The usual apologies for only about 15 decimal places of precision. Blame Microsoft.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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September 14th, 2022 at 6:00:27 AM permalink
Thank you, Mike. Just to put EB’s claims in perspective.
Zcore13
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September 14th, 2022 at 6:09:04 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Hitting 80% correct on an event that happens around 48% of the time over 1000 spins makes 18 yo’s in a row look like child’s play! (I’ll leave it to a math guy to tell me which is more unbelievable!).
link to original post



The odds are comparable between 18 yo's and an 80%+ success rate over 228 even-money roulette bets on a double-zero wheel.

To be specific, the odds of the 18 yo's are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,600,000,000.

The odds of 181 or more wins in 228 bets (79.39% win rate) are 1 in 33,820,836,576,546,000,000,000

The usual apologies for only about 15 decimal places of precision. Blame Microsoft.
link to original post


I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 6:49:46 AM permalink
To some extent I feel these types of threads need to be here and need the vociferous denials and math examination like the Wizard just did.

The general complaint is new forum members may be seduced by the bad information from these threads but that would be only if we didn't point out the math inconsistencies.

Of course there will be some new members who will choose to believe EB versus the Wizard.

But those posters probably couldn't be helped anyway. They want the system or magic potion.

If you come to the Wizards sight and choose not to listen to his sage advice and instead to EB, then that's a personal choice. A choice that will probably wind up very expensive.

But as to having these threads, if they aren't here, they will be somewhere else sans all the posters and the Wizard to naysay it so even these threads do a service.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TigerWu
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ams288
September 14th, 2022 at 8:22:50 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I discovered roulette completely by accident and playing it is not gambling for me because I know I'm going to win every single session.
link to original post



and

Quote: EvenBob


But my clams are not extraordinary at all,.....
link to original post



LOL

At first I was disappointed that EB was allowed to come back and get away with his usual shenanigans, but this thread has been a goldmine...
MDawg
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:17:19 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Hitting 80% correct on an event that happens around 48% of the time over 1000 spins makes 18 yo’s in a row look like child’s play! (I’ll leave it to a math guy to tell me which is more unbelievable!).
link to original post



The odds are comparable between 18 yo's and an 80%+ success rate over 228 even-money roulette bets on a double-zero wheel.

To be specific, the odds of the 18 yo's are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,600,000,000.

The odds of 181 or more wins in 228 bets (79.39% win rate) are 1 in 33,820,836,576,546,000,000,000

The usual apologies for only about 15 decimal places of precision. Blame Microsoft.
link to original post


The first calculation, simply how likely the same occurrence happening in a row.

The second calculation, you're calculating simply based on winning say, 181 out of 228 wins? Is that exactly what he claims?

During the last trip I took a single promo chip (1000) to $15000., winning 16/17 in a row, flat betting the promo chip, you're telling me the odds of doing that at Baccarat are in the billions? because I've had winning streaks like that occasionally, not just when it's 16 Banks or Players in a row. You yourself witnessed me win 8/8 on a Player run when that was the only Player run on the whole shoe. I caught the first hand of the Player run, and every hand afterwards, so that would be an 8/9 win, in a row.

If the odds of 16 say, Banks in a row on a Baccarat shoe are 0.00000935, what are the odds of winning 16 in a row, period?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:35:01 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

Hitting 80% correct on an event that happens around 48% of the time over 1000 spins makes 18 yo’s in a row look like child’s play! (I’ll leave it to a math guy to tell me which is more unbelievable!).
link to original post



The odds are comparable between 18 yo's and an 80%+ success rate over 228 even-money roulette bets on a double-zero wheel.

To be specific, the odds of the 18 yo's are 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,600,000,000.

The odds of 181 or more wins in 228 bets (79.39% win rate) are 1 in 33,820,836,576,546,000,000,000

The usual apologies for only about 15 decimal places of precision. Blame Microsoft.
link to original post


The first calculation, simply how likely the same occurrence happening in a row.

The second calculation, you're calculating simply based on winning say, 181 out of 228 wins? Is that exactly what he claims?

During the last trip I took a single promo chip (1000) to $15000., winning 16/17 in a row, flat betting the promo chip, you're telling me the odds of doing that at Baccarat are in the billions? because I've had winning streaks like that occasionally, not just when it's 16 Banks or Players in a row. You yourself witnessed me win 8/8 on a Player run when that was the only Player run on the whole shoe. I caught the first hand of the Player run, and every hand afterwards, so that would be an 8/9 win, in a row.

If the odds of 16 say, Banks in a row on a Baccarat shoe are 0.00000935, what are the odds of winning 16 in a row, period?
link to original post



No you are conflating the different wagers.

The odds of 18 yo's IN A ROW (11:1 Odds)

Versus the odds of 181 wagers out of 228 on an even money wager. (80% hit rate). (-5.26 EV)

I should point out that's lower than EB's claims which is that he actually wins 228 out of 228 sessions, just not on the first wager.

Baccarat which has a much smaller-EV could have much more streaks in winning and losing but we would be talking about winning say 228 out of 228.

Even you don't claim that.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
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September 14th, 2022 at 9:38:38 AM permalink
I believe EBob is saying that he wins 80% of his bets on the first try. Which yes, statistically is different from saying that he wins 80% and loses 20%.

I haven't calculated the odds of winning 16 in a row at an even chance bet, but to win say, 13 in a row on a coin toss would be 8,912 to 1 if we're basing it on the odds of 13 heads in a row coming up.

Now, if the coin is jumping back and forth randomly between heads and tails, and someone still guesses it right 13 in a row, is that statistically less probable than if it came up 13 heads in a row and the bettor guessed heads 13 times and got it right?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
TigerWu
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seven
September 14th, 2022 at 9:50:44 AM permalink
EB says he only bets Outside even money.... if he is playing European Roulette with the en prison rule, which would be very easy to find in online casinos, the house edge would be 1.35%; almost on par with Baccarat.
MrV
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Hunterhill
September 14th, 2022 at 10:04:35 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

There you go again Wizard insulting and maligning me for no reason.



Actually, he had EVERY reason to criticize your "I saw 18 yo's in a row" fairy tale.

Your ridiculous claim is wholly without corroboration, proof, or basis.

Why did you bother to make that silly claim anyway?

It continues to haunt you and stinks like the rotting albatross tied around the neck of the Ancient Mariner.

P.U.

With Alan, MDawg, and now EB making ridiculous claims one has to wonder:

"What, me worry?"
rawtuff
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TigerWuHunterhill
September 14th, 2022 at 10:16:44 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

In January of 2021 the governor of my state, Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, changed my life forever. She made online gambling legal in my state. Before she signed the bill I had no use for her but now I love her dearly and have nothing but fond thoughts of her.

First were the sports books then just about a year ago the online casinos came with the live dealers. There are 13 or 14 online casinos that have live roulette and it has changed my life. I will probably never set foot in another brick and mortar Casino again, why would I. At an online live wheel I can see 90 outcomes in an hour where the average in a brick-and-mortar casino is 25 or 30 an hour. Because I can see so many spins in such a short amount of time this has raised my hit rate to 80%. I'm only playing to make one unit a session because that's all I need to make. I have a monthly goal and I get to that goal by making one unit a session by playing one or two or three sessions a day.. With an 80% hit rate it's usually over very quickly obviously.

I would never go to another brick-and-mortar casino because they are stone-age to me now. I have to drive to get there, park my car walk all the way inside, play elbow to elbow with complete strangers in a game that is as slow as molasses. And shows me a fraction of the outcomes that I can see online. I've never liked brick-and-mortar casinos as I've said here many times. In fact mostly I hate them for reasons I will not go into again. Just the thought of never having to enter another casino is invigorating.

In a break from my normal way of doing things I am now willing to answer questions about how I get an 80% hit rate. Obviously I'm not going to answer questions like what's the combination to the safe but I will tell you how the safe works, I will tell you what I do and what I look for to get an 80% hit rate. You will have to figure the rest out for yourself. Never again can anybody say but I don't talk about what I do that I just brag about results. I'm not expecting a lot of traffic in this thread because you will not know what questions to ask. You will want me to lay out the whole thing for you in simple terms and then take you to the casino to show you exactly how it works over and over until you get it. That's never going to happen. My experience is gamblers are inherently lazy and they want everything for nothing that's why they gamble. A big asset for me is I am not a gambler and I've never been a gambler. I went to the casino for years with my wife so she can play the slots and most of the time I didn't play anything because I don't gamble. I discovered roulette completely by accident and playing it is not gambling for me because I know I'm going to win every single session.
link to original post




Hahahahhahaha.
Don't beat yourself up over past mistakes, you are going to f*** up again in the future, quite possibly in the most spectacular fashion, why worry about yesterday's f*** up's when you have tomorrow's f*** up's to look forward to? You are a f*** up, and f***** up is part of your growth process, embrace the process.
TigerWu
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September 14th, 2022 at 10:41:53 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

The only way I could lose will be to get a whole lot of zeros and that's not going to happen.



"The only way I could lose will be to get a whole lot of zeros and that's not going to happen."

-- EvenBob and Fyodor Dostoevsky

Quote: EvenBob


All those years people saying I should be banned from here because I refuse to discuss the details of what I do. Now I'm willing to discuss it and nobody wants to talk about it which I suspected all along. What you really want is for me to show you exactly what I do so you can do it yourself.
link to original post



EvenBob: "I will discuss the details of what I do to win consistently."

Also EvenBob, in the very next sentence: "I will not show you the details of what I do to win consistently."

LOL

This thread is something else...I'm kind of obsessed with it...
SOOPOO
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MDawg
September 14th, 2022 at 11:04:08 AM permalink
MDawg, Mike has answered already, that the odds of an 80% hit rate on EB’s ‘first’ bet over 230 or so spins is so unlikely it is just as ridiculous as the 18 yo’s in a row claim. Which is the official standard for absurdity here at WoV. As far as you winning 16 out of 17, at a basically 50/50 occurrence, if you play enough it will happen. I know I have personally lost 16 in a row (not counting ties) at Pai Gow poker. And I am in a casino far less than you are.

What we will probably never know is what EB’s true motivation for posting the silly claims he makes.
TigerWu
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Joeman
September 14th, 2022 at 11:19:46 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


What we will probably never know is what EB’s true motivation for posting the silly claims he makes.
link to original post



How else is he going to stay at the top of the leaderboard for post count?
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 11:23:06 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

EB says he only bets Outside even money.... if he is playing European Roulette with the en prison rule, which would be very easy to find in online casinos, the house edge would be 1.35%; almost on par with Baccarat.
link to original post



That is a good point to make.

Nonetheless, even with that small -EV, to claim 100% profit every time he Gamble's (80% in the first wager and within 7 wagers the other 20%) seems ridiculous.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 11:26:30 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: SOOPOO


What we will probably never know is what EB’s true motivation for posting the silly claims he makes.
link to original post



How else is he going to stay at the top of the leaderboard for post count?
link to original post



Yes this is all just a play to remain relevant.

EB is into his eighties I believe from past posts he has mentioned. When in your twilight years I suppose one might feel the need to be important, relevant.

His claims that he always wins at Roulette but that's NOT a major achievement smacks of Ego. Yes he did it and even then it's nothing special, no more than tying his shoelaces or dusting lint off his shoulder. Really trying to put himself on a pedestal.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
vegas
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September 14th, 2022 at 11:28:44 AM permalink
Bob, when you find a trend (pattern), do you go with the trend or against it. Do you ever vary from this position and bet opposite of your normal bet?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 11:36:39 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

Bob, when you find a trend (pattern), do you go with the trend or against it. Do you ever vary from this position and bet opposite of your normal bet?
link to original post



Come on, stop with the hard questions!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Tanko
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September 14th, 2022 at 11:37:17 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ThatDonGuy



Question 1: how are you defining "a hit"



80% hit rate means I get 8 out of 10 correct on average on the 1st bet. Flat betting only, I never use a progression.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question 2: at what point is a session a loss?



It would be when I fail to make one unit no matter what I do. But that never happens. With an 80% hit rate is not possible.



Impressive.

You must have a lot of faith in your method by now, and betting large. $500 or more per spin?

Post a few screenshots.
darkoz
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September 14th, 2022 at 12:07:22 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: ThatDonGuy



Question 1: how are you defining "a hit"



80% hit rate means I get 8 out of 10 correct on average on the 1st bet. Flat betting only, I never use a progression.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question 2: at what point is a session a loss?



It would be when I fail to make one unit no matter what I do. But that never happens. With an 80% hit rate is not possible.



Impressive.

You must have a lot of faith in your method by now, and betting large. $500 or more per spin?

Post a few screenshots.
link to original post



I doubt EB knows Photoshop!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Wiggins
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ChumpChangecamapl
September 14th, 2022 at 1:05:55 PM permalink
If he's been so successful he should be able to provide some receipts. Something like this:

EvenBob
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September 14th, 2022 at 1:16:10 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

EvenBob,

Let's explore your method.

Say you log in to your favorite online casino and see the following outcomes on the first 12 non-green spins (we're ignoring the green outcomes, as you've said you do):

B,R,R,B,R,R,R,B,B,R,B,R

Do you bet the next spin? If so, do you bet R or B?
link to original post



First of all there is not enough information here I don't just look at the one string of outcomes. Secondly I don't even see a pattern here. And yes my name was going to be Even Chance Bob and I just shortened it to EvenBob
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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