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rektfast
rektfast
Joined: May 9, 2022
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June 21st, 2022 at 12:02:43 PM permalink
Indeed.

I know it's frowned upon to use a cell phone while playing VP since someone could be recording or cheating, but are you allowed to log your hands?

I assume you can, since they let people use strategy cards.

It seems like keeping a hand record would be useful to know if you're "due" for quads or a flush or whatever, although that sort of thinking is technically fallacious.

I was just playing a practice round of VP at pretty good accuracy and had only a few credits left when I "miraculously" hit quads and went right back to my starting credit amount just as expected from full-pay VP.

Honestly I'm not even convinced that the skill in VP is edging out the extra hundredth of a percent by knowing when to hold suited Ace Ten and when to toss it, it's really more about knowing if you're statistically ahead of schedule on quads and royals and full houses and taking your money out before your luck equalizes with what would be mathematically expected.
Dieter
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Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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June 21st, 2022 at 1:25:11 PM permalink
You are never due for a win.

The trials are independent.

It is unlikely to go a million hands without a royal flush, but this does not mean that your chances get better after 979,843 non-royals in a row.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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June 21st, 2022 at 1:26:52 PM permalink
Let's just put it bluntly. It's an RNG that meets the requirements of the State of Nevada gaming laws. You can say you're due all day, every day, but you're not ever due.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 1:46:36 PM permalink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DF2GuWa72A

Ok, assuming Rob Singer is correct—and he is—let's try to make VP a winnable game.

First, we'll constrain the number of hands to defeat the 99.54% RTP due to house edge. So instead of playing INFINITY hands like some people suggest, let's play 423. 423 is the number of hands that four-of-a-kind should occur within, theoretically. Quads are easy to record and almost impossible to misplay. Generally every session you hit quads, you made money.

We need 423 times the wager as a bankroll for one set. So instead of giving our life savings to the casino in slow motion half a percent at a time, we now have a GAME that consists of 423 hands.

I'm assuming the player already knows how to play VP with very high accuracy, barring stupid nonsense like occasionally holding AT suited because the low cards are blocking busted straights on a Wednesday when the moon is in Gemini...

So we have a set of 423 hands. If we hit quads within those hands, we stop playing and record the set as a win. The optimal outcome would be to hit quads on the first hand and pull your money out.

While playing, you would use a strategy card. But instead of telling you what hands to keep, since you already know that, instead it reads:

Royal Flush 1 / 40,000
Four of a kind 1 / 423
Four Aces 1 / 5,761
Four Aces with a kicker 1 / 16,236
Four Deuces 1 / 4,909
2’s – 4’s 1 / 2,601
2’s – 4’s with a kicker 1 / 6,984
Full House 1 / 90
Flush 1 / 85
Straight 1 / 80
Straight Flush 1 / 9,150

So you would keep a running tally of the number of royals, quads, houses, flushes, and straights you've hit, plus what number hand you're on. This is effectively card counting, although conceptual in nature rather than measuring penetration within a shoe.

If you are ahead of schedule and in the green, you immediately stop playing the 423 hand set and record that set as a WIN.

If you never hit quads, you play out the 423 hands and cash out whatever is left, noting that set is a LOSS.

As the set continues, if you are behind schedule, you would perhaps opt for safe sub-optimal plays to "stay alive," such as ignoring three to a royal for a small pair.

Now since we have win/loss parameters, we can apply the Martingale method.

So if your last set was a LOSS, you double your previous wager. So instead of playing $1 a hand or whatever, now you play $2 a hand and play another set of 423. If that set loses again, you double your wager from $2 to $4, etc.

If your previous set was a WIN, you keep your wager the same and start a new set.

I believe the best way to play VP is some version of this method, but I'll keep thinking about it.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
rsactuary
June 21st, 2022 at 4:57:21 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast



Ok, assuming Rob Singer is correct—and he is—let's try to make VP a winnable game.



Starting with a false premise will never result in a correct proof.
Order from chaos
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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June 21st, 2022 at 5:21:52 PM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I'm assuming the player already knows how to play VP with very high accuracy,



Everything falls apart right here (well.. and when you say Rob Singer is correct). If the game is rigged as you say it is, what difference does playing with high accuracy make?
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 5:50:39 PM permalink
I'm glad you asked!

I have played gacha games that were rigged before, such as Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Links. Once you know a game is rigged, you are the one with the advantage. For a while there were bots who would hack to view the top card of your deck and activate Conscription to steal your monsters. Unfortunately for him, I was playing Ancient Gears, and they can't be special summoned. Long story short, he got BTFO

As an aside, the shuffler in Duel Links is notorious for favoring rare cards over common cards. It is possible that VP shufflers also favor face cards over random trash like 2c and 4d.

I have played those fake video poker VLTs before, and even though it is rigged, you can still win. I played one hand, kept a pair of Kings, won like $15 or whatever and walked away. Never touched it again. If I had not known it were rigged, however, I might have kept playing and gone bankrupt. Knowing is half the battle!
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:12:20 PM permalink
This is not worth the battle. Good luck at the machines.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:15:42 PM permalink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMyT-647qCg&list=PL-Es5RQJRg8VF35KMKMXkabX8GIjMV3r4&index=12

Consider what Rob is saying about adjusting his play to his bankroll. If you taught an artificial intelligence to play video poker, that is literally what it would learn to do.

People will say to play mathematically perfectly because in the long run, you will make money.

But in the long run, YOU ALREADY LOST YOUR BANKROLL TO THE HOUSE EDGE.

There is an opportunity cost of .5% to playing VP in the first place!

The "game" of video poker is NOT keeping an open-ender or pair of aces. Any idiot can do that. The "game" is making money!
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:23:25 PM permalink
I stepped into the HL Room nearby and found some VP with denominations of $1, $2, $5, $10, and $25. So the RF JPs would be 4000X each of those or $4K, $8K, $20K, $40K, or $100K.
One Jacks or Better game had four Jacks left on the screen and someone played 1 credit at the $25 denom, so they won 25 coins or $625. A straight flush would be a handpay at $1250.

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