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rektfast
rektfast
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:12:06 AM permalink
Shouldn't there be public patents about how VP machines work?

And what if you make bad holds on purpose to condition the machine to think you are a bad player, then switch to optimal strategy in the same session and quit after the pity timer? Theoretically that should improve payback
billryan
billryan
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May 24th, 2022 at 9:53:33 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Shouldn't there be public patents about how VP machines work?

And what if you make bad holds on purpose to condition the machine to think you are a bad player, then switch to optimal strategy in the same session and quit after the pity timer? Theoretically that should improve payback
link to original post



Tell us more about the pity timer. Could we find some really bad players and switch out just in time? How many good players would we need? Maybe three bad for every one good?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:30:11 AM permalink
If the original post is wrong about chasing quads, what about pulling your money when you get quads in succession?

Quads occur once in about every 400 hands. What about a betting system that waits for multiple quads in the same 400 hand session?

For example, if you got four-of-a-kind and then another four-of-a-kind a few hands later, that would be a high quads frequency and you would cash out.

If you went a long time without quads, however, you would keep betting until you hit at least one four-of-a-kind to get your initial back.

Generally, a session that hits quads will at least recoup your initial money.

How would someone turn this into a workable betting system like Martingale?

Also does anyone have advice on how to stop missing low pairs when playing a high HPH? Do you read the cards out loud or what?
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 21st, 2022 at 6:51:50 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

If the original post is wrong about chasing quads, what about pulling your money when you get quads in succession?



If your manner of play is more likely to win than lose, why stop at this point?



Quote:

If you went a long time without quads, however, you would keep betting until you hit at least one four-of-a-kind to get your initial back.

Generally, a session that hits quads will at least recoup your initial money.



So... chase your losses until it stops being fun?

Quote:

How would someone turn this into a workable betting system like Martingale?

Also does anyone have advice on how to stop missing low pairs when playing a high HPH? Do you read the cards out loud or what?
link to original post



Martingale requires bet size increases. Video poker is usually played at maximum bet size. Increasing bet size may require changing machines to redenominate.

Practice. There are apps and websites. Doing it right, slowly, can be preferable to doing it wrong quickly.
It really is a matter of repetition until your brain knows to associate the patterns you see with what should be done.
If you can find a way to get repetitions with minimal risk to your bankroll, like through an app or website, you may come out ahead.
May the cards fall in your favor.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 7:19:29 AM permalink
The OP was about assuming that machines were rigged against royals and ignoring them. The brain trust at wizardofvegas concluded that was not a good idea. I'm now suggesting a system in which you assume a set of 423 hands and if you hit quads multiple times during that set, you cash out. Most hands in VP are statistically irrelevant and do nothing but refund your bet, so they should be ignored. Likewise if you hit two royals during a set of 40,000 hands you should also cash out, but that is so rare as to not be a workable idea.

Some casinos don't offer comps for full-pay VP, so you could probably just "launder" the VP winnings through a low-risk slot machine or whatever to become +EV. 99.5% payback is less than one hundred, but I think that applying slots strategies like the five-spin method and playing during off-hours etc. could bring that to over 100.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 21st, 2022 at 9:47:12 AM permalink
Rekfast, either you believe the previous hands at VP have no influence on the next hand or you donít. Think long and hard about that. Then you wonít need to ask us any more questions.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 9:55:42 AM permalink
In aggregate, the data should conform to what is mathematically expected. If you've played 40,000 hands without a RF, that doesn't mean you're going to hit a royal on the next hand. It's just a guideline.

I don't see how APs can claim that when you cash out doesn't matter. That's like telling someone who won the lottery that they should keep buying tickets. The problem is that people think you should play VP indefinitely and lose to the house edge when you could just stop when you're ahead and invest the profits or whatever. Most betting systems don't have a win condition, which is why they don't work.

Ultimately, I think playing fewer hands slowly at higher stakes makes more sense than playing like 80,000 hands for nickels and inevitably mis-clicking through two pairs or picking 10s 10d when you had three to a royal or whatever. "Perfect play" when you're only playing a couple of hands is trivial to achieve. It's only when you have really weird edge cases like four to a straight flush and a pair of Jacks at the same time that most people mess up.

Any idiot can play one hand of video poker, get dealt two Kings, keep both and make a profit. But if he's walking away in the green, is he really an idiot?
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 21st, 2022 at 10:00:25 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

I don't see how APs can claim that when you cash out doesn't matter.
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After you cash out, are you going to play again?
Is something different about the last hand you played and the next hand you would have played? ... the next hand you do play?
May the cards fall in your favor.
rektfast
rektfast
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June 21st, 2022 at 10:29:27 AM permalink
Questions like that are the point of this forum lol.

Aside from the basics like only playing full-pay machines whose strategy you know during casino events with a player's card, there should really be some kind of overall bankroll strategy. Although I read a lot of posts about hold strategies in DDB or counting cards in blackjack or dice settings in craps, nobody ever talks about the metagame of gambling itself like when to stop, what to do with the money, etc.

Like, if a casino offered players the opportunity to bet on a coin flip that was weighted 51% in your favor, a gambler would play it forever. But then you have something like VP where you have 99.54% payback, and the same people will tell you not to stop while you're ahead.

It just makes no sense
Dieter
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Dieter
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June 21st, 2022 at 10:58:04 AM permalink
Quote: rektfast

Although I read a lot of posts about hold strategies in DDB or counting cards in blackjack or dice settings in craps, nobody ever talks about the metagame of gambling itself like when to stop, what to do with the money, etc.

link to original post



Any good question like that will have but one answer: it depends.

If I'm playing video poker to earn drawing tickets to win a lifetime supply of chicken salad sandwiches, and the drawing closes at 3:00am, it doesn't make sense for me to start another hand at 3:01am. Something has changed. I no longer find the game interesting, because I can no longer win a lifetime supply of chicken salad sandwiches. (Mustard and mayo, thank you, and don't skimp on the grape leaves.)

If you're gambling for entertainment, stop when it isn't entertaining.

What to do with the money? There are some attractive savings bonds at the moment. There are likely some speculative real estate transactions if you won bigger than that. If you're smaller stakes, make sure all your bills are paid up. Money is fungible.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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