Don't pass System
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:
Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
Quote: JCSo you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:
Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
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the Wiz has a digital craps sim
you could test out your idea - although it might take quite a while to get into the long run - to get to the point where you would consider your results meaningful
I think you might have overlooked that when a point is established the player loses on the any 7 bet - the any 7 is a single roll bet
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https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/
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Quote: JCSo you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:
Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
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The "quick version" of what you appear to be missing is, if the player wins with an 11 on the come out, you lose both bets (you make it sound like the "any 7" bet wins), and if the player loses with a 12 on the comeout, you lose both bets.
| Result | Prob | DP | Any 7 | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player wins on 7 on come out roll | 16.66% | -600 | +600 | 0 |
| Player wins on 11 on come out roll | 5.56% | -600 | -150 | -41.7 |
| Player loses on 2 or 3 on come out roll | 8.33% | +600 | -150 | +37.485 |
| Player loses in 12 on come out roll | 2.78% | 0 | -150 | -4.27 |
| Player wins on a point | 27.07% | -600 | -150 | -203.025 |
| Player loses on a point | 39.60% | +600 | -150 | +178.2 |
| Total | 100% | -- | -- | -33.31 |
I think your maths is wrong; yes you win more often.Quote: JC...$600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7...
When you win the DP, the payout is $450 (as you lose the ANY7 bet); however when you lose it's both bets so $750; or $150 on a 12-standoff. Using your figures for points, if the ANY7 was a fair bet you'd lose $8.16, if ANY7 pays 4/1, $33.16.
So sadly no holy grail!
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: JCSo you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:
Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post
The "quick version" of what you appear to be missing is, if the player wins with an 11 on the come out, you lose both bets (you make it sound like the "any 7" bet wins), and if the player loses with a 12 on the comeout, you lose both bets.
Result Prob DP Any 7 Profit Player wins on 7 on come out roll 16.66% -600 +600 0 Player wins on 11 on come out roll 5.56% -600 -150 -41.7 Player loses on 2 or 3 on come out roll 8.33% +600 -150 +37.485 Player loses in 12 on come out roll 2.78% 0 -150 -4.27 Player wins on a point 27.07% -600 -150 -203.025 Player loses on a point 39.60% +600 -150 +178.2 Total 100% -- -- -33.31
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That's my question, I know I have to be missing something. I took for granted the 11 and 12 which is 8.4% combined odds would be offset by the 2 and 3 which have the same odds, But looking at it, losing $750 on the 11 5.6% of the time and losing $150 on the 12 2.8% of the time would not be offset by the $450 win 8.4% of the time.
$750 x 5.6=$4200, $150 x 2.8=$420 total=$4620
$450 x 8.4=$3780
That doesn't look like it changes much.
Edit.....Just read the entire table. Thanks again. Idk why I was trying to move the come out 7 odds to the DP probability %. Actually, I assumed a washout on the come out rolls and was going off the low 27% probability of hitting a point vs not.
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
There is a much better system than that: Always bet the DP except when a 7/11 is about to be rolled during comeout. 28% player advantage, guaranteedQuote: JCSo you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:
Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
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I never know whether to bet $6 on the PL & $6 on the odds; or $6 on the PL and $6 on the PB 6 or 8; or bet $12 on PL. It always seems like 6 of one or a half dozen of the other.
Quote: JC
My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
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Rather than betting ANY 7, I would lay the 5 or 9 for $900. But since I like to throw come-out 7's maybe you can put the DP? Oh, it doesn't work that way. Bet the DC instead. Take down the Lay bet when the DC gets established. There's a $30 vig on that Lay bet, so be sure to get that back if you paid it up front. I don't know why dealers can't just turn the Lay bet off instead of taking it down.
Warning, the swings are huge in craps! Lol
Quote: ChumpChangeFor the tuttigyms here
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
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Mr.CC: Could you please "define" each of those numbers?
27.07
39.60
Give me the 4th grade arithmetic, i.e, what do those numbers represent?
"Right side" natural winners (7/11) represent 22% of come outs, right?
"Dark side" CO losers (2.3.12) is 11%, right?
67% of subsequent play is point play, right?
What is the baseline quantitative or combine loss percentage of that 67% of play, and is it possible to determine the combined loss percentage of just the 4,5,9,10 points?
tuttigym
I did the math based on a previous post in this thread that included the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 point resolvation.
Craps is more like 2nd grade arithmetic. The only game that's easier to analyze is roulette, which can be done with kindergarden arithmeticQuote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeFor the tuttigyms here
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
link to original post
Mr.CC: Could you please "define" each of those numbers?
27.07
39.60
Give me the 4th grade arithmetic, i.e, what do those numbers represent?
"Right side" natural winners (7/11) represent 22% of come outs, right?
"Dark side" CO losers (2.3.12) is 11%, right?
67% of subsequent play is point play, right?
What is the baseline quantitative or combine loss percentage of that 67% of play, and is it possible to determine the combined loss percentage of just the 4,5,9,10 points?
tuttigym
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