JC
JC
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:11:00 AM permalink
So you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:

Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.

My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
billryan
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:20:55 AM permalink
I don't play craps but this doesn't pass the smell test. As craps have existed in casinos for about a hundred years and the smartest mathematical minds have been trying to beat it, you have to think that one of them would have stumbled on to this, no?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
JC
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:28:14 AM permalink
I'll wait until someone who knows the math can answer. It is a theory. Just like all systems, they can work very well until they don't, but I am wanting to know the math, so I could care less if someone has thought of this before or not. I am exploring to see if this would be a worth trying to hit it until up a couple and bounce system
billryan
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:33:45 AM permalink
Right. Just because your system has been examined and rejected by everyone who has tried to exploit the game for a century the game doesn't mean it might not work. Best of luck .
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:33:52 AM permalink
Quote: JC

So you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:

Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.

My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post




the Wiz has a digital craps sim

you could test out your idea - although it might take quite a while to get into the long run - to get to the point where you would consider your results meaningful

I think you might have overlooked that when a point is established the player loses on the any 7 bet - the any 7 is a single roll bet


.
https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
ThatDonGuy
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:52:28 AM permalink
Quote: JC

So you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:

Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.

My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post


The "quick version" of what you appear to be missing is, if the player wins with an 11 on the come out, you lose both bets (you make it sound like the "any 7" bet wins), and if the player loses with a 12 on the comeout, you lose both bets.

ResultProbDPAny 7Profit
Player wins on 7 on come out roll16.66%-600+6000
Player wins on 11 on come out roll5.56%-600-150-41.7
Player loses on 2 or 3 on come out roll8.33%+600-150+37.485
Player loses in 12 on come out roll2.78%0-150-4.27
Player wins on a point27.07%-600-150-203.025
Player loses on a point39.60%+600-150+178.2
Total100%-----33.31
charliepatrick
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February 18th, 2022 at 7:54:14 AM permalink
Quote: JC

...$600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7...

I think your maths is wrong; yes you win more often.
When you win the DP, the payout is $450 (as you lose the ANY7 bet); however when you lose it's both bets so $750; or $150 on a 12-standoff. Using your figures for points, if the ANY7 was a fair bet you'd lose $8.16, if ANY7 pays 4/1, $33.16.

So sadly no holy grail!
JC
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February 18th, 2022 at 8:00:52 AM permalink
I get that. That is why I am asking. I stated the 2 and 3 which would be wins would out number the 11/12. I also did state wins were $450.
JC
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February 18th, 2022 at 8:22:10 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: JC

So you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:

Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.

My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post


The "quick version" of what you appear to be missing is, if the player wins with an 11 on the come out, you lose both bets (you make it sound like the "any 7" bet wins), and if the player loses with a 12 on the comeout, you lose both bets.

ResultProbDPAny 7Profit
Player wins on 7 on come out roll16.66%-600+6000
Player wins on 11 on come out roll5.56%-600-150-41.7
Player loses on 2 or 3 on come out roll8.33%+600-150+37.485
Player loses in 12 on come out roll2.78%0-150-4.27
Player wins on a point27.07%-600-150-203.025
Player loses on a point39.60%+600-150+178.2
Total100%-----33.31

link to original post



That's my question, I know I have to be missing something. I took for granted the 11 and 12 which is 8.4% combined odds would be offset by the 2 and 3 which have the same odds, But looking at it, losing $750 on the 11 5.6% of the time and losing $150 on the 12 2.8% of the time would not be offset by the $450 win 8.4% of the time.

$750 x 5.6=$4200, $150 x 2.8=$420 total=$4620
$450 x 8.4=$3780

That doesn't look like it changes much.

Edit.....Just read the entire table. Thanks again. Idk why I was trying to move the come out 7 odds to the DP probability %. Actually, I assumed a washout on the come out rolls and was going off the low 27% probability of hitting a point vs not.
Last edited by: JC on Feb 18, 2022
unJon
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February 18th, 2022 at 8:32:34 AM permalink
Donít bet the any 7. Ever. One of the worst bets you can find in the casino.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2022 at 8:43:49 AM permalink
For the tuttigyms here
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
Ace2
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February 18th, 2022 at 9:49:39 AM permalink
Quote: JC

So you have stated the following:
The following are the possible outcomes of the pass/come bet and their associated probabilities:

Player wins on come out roll: 22.22%
Player loses on come out roll: 11.11%
Player wins on a point: 27.07%
Player loses on a point: 39.60%
So the player will win on a point about 1 in 3.7 rolls.

My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post

There is a much better system than that: Always bet the DP except when a 7/11 is about to be rolled during comeout. 28% player advantage, guaranteed
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2022 at 10:06:13 AM permalink
I throw come-out craps when I bet the PL; and throw come-out 7-11's when I bet the DP. Double my losses in half the time. Thanks Bubble Craps.

I never know whether to bet $6 on the PL & $6 on the odds; or $6 on the PL and $6 on the PB 6 or 8; or bet $12 on PL. It always seems like 6 of one or a half dozen of the other.
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2022 at 10:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: JC



My theory or question is: If you put say $600 on the DP and $150 on the ANY 7 and just kept betting that on every come out, wouldn't that basically eliminate the 22.22% and give you an HUGE advantage of close to 73% as the come out 2 and 3 would more than offset the come out 11 and smaller loss on 12. So over time, betting this way wouldn't you win $450 73% of the time and lose $750 27% which would equal roughly a gain of $12,600 per 100 rolls? Or am I missing something?
link to original post



Rather than betting ANY 7, I would lay the 5 or 9 for $900. But since I like to throw come-out 7's maybe you can put the DP? Oh, it doesn't work that way. Bet the DC instead. Take down the Lay bet when the DC gets established. There's a $30 vig on that Lay bet, so be sure to get that back if you paid it up front. I don't know why dealers can't just turn the Lay bet off instead of taking it down.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Feb 18, 2022
Vegasrider
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February 18th, 2022 at 1:50:01 PM permalink
I just started to play craps, studied by watching many YouTube videos and have played over 1000 rolls on simulator games. I have played live 5 times, buying in for $1000 each time. After every session, I have tweaked my Donít Pass strategy because I go home and evaluate what happened. My last adjustment put me out of the whole and I won $1800. I have had two winning sessions, one push and 2 losing sessions. My sessions last about 6 hrs at the table. Iím going to use my same strategy again tonight and see if it will post me another profit.

Warning, the swings are huge in craps! Lol
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2022 at 2:33:10 PM permalink
I probably shouldn't expect to get more than 15 PL bets ahead in a live session, but I should expect to find myself 50 PL bets behind in a session. Don'ts anyone?
tuttigym
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February 18th, 2022 at 2:38:28 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

For the tuttigyms here
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
link to original post


Mr.CC: Could you please "define" each of those numbers?
27.07
39.60
Give me the 4th grade arithmetic, i.e, what do those numbers represent?

"Right side" natural winners (7/11) represent 22% of come outs, right?
"Dark side" CO losers (2.3.12) is 11%, right?
67% of subsequent play is point play, right?
What is the baseline quantitative or combine loss percentage of that 67% of play, and is it possible to determine the combined loss percentage of just the 4,5,9,10 points?

tuttigym
ChumpChange
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February 18th, 2022 at 2:56:56 PM permalink
I'm sure I used 9th grade math, but that was before calculators were around.
I did the math based on a previous post in this thread that included the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 point resolvation.
Ace2
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February 18th, 2022 at 4:02:43 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: ChumpChange

For the tuttigyms here
Making an established point
27.07 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Right side 40.6%
39.60 / (27.07 + 39.60) - Dark side 59.4%
Free odds bets have less HA than line bets.
link to original post


Mr.CC: Could you please "define" each of those numbers?
27.07
39.60
Give me the 4th grade arithmetic, i.e, what do those numbers represent?

"Right side" natural winners (7/11) represent 22% of come outs, right?
"Dark side" CO losers (2.3.12) is 11%, right?
67% of subsequent play is point play, right?
What is the baseline quantitative or combine loss percentage of that 67% of play, and is it possible to determine the combined loss percentage of just the 4,5,9,10 points?

tuttigym
link to original post

Craps is more like 2nd grade arithmetic. The only game that's easier to analyze is roulette, which can be done with kindergarden arithmetic
Itís all about making that GTA
DeMango
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February 19th, 2022 at 3:15:28 AM permalink
Eliminating variance as much as possible is the goal, $25 DP, $6 hop 7's comes close. After that learn to roll 7's. Use d'Alembert progression on DP line.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
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