The Adventures of MDawg II

Quote: EvenBob

Let me put it another way. I've known many men married for decades who have a hobby that keeps them in their garage or their basement most of the time when they're home. Some of them call it a man cave. Most of them have an actual hobby that keeps them busy so they have to spend as little time as possible with their wives. I found a way where I don't have to live with my wife so it's not a problem. You say that this time you've been married 13 years which implies you were married before. If you have an ex-wife you certainly understand some of this and don't pretend you don't. There's a reason why you have a second wife. Lots of men choose to keep their first wife and just find a way to live with it.

I do understand and my first marriage definitely had some issues. You mentioned that you would have to kill yourself if your wife was around more. I was just curious what she does that makes you feel that way?

Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

Let me put it another way. I've known many men married for decades who have a hobby that keeps them in their garage or their basement most of the time when they're home. Some of them call it a man cave. Most of them have an actual hobby that keeps them busy so they have to spend as little time as possible with their wives. I found a way where I don't have to live with my wife so it's not a problem. You say that this time you've been married 13 years which implies you were married before. If you have an ex-wife you certainly understand some of this and don't pretend you don't. There's a reason why you have a second wife. Lots of men choose to keep their first wife and just find a way to live with it.

I do understand and my first marriage definitely had some issues. You mentioned that you would have to kill yourself if your wife was around more. I was just curious what she does that makes you feel that way?
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Familiarity breeds contempt. Cary Grant was married many times and he said the biggest problem with marriage is its sameness. You get up with the person in the morning, have breakfast with them, come home in the evening and have dinner with them, spend the evening with them and then sleep with them all night and start over again in the morning. The sameness of it, the familiarity of it, eventually wears you down. Wore him down anyway and I suspect it wears a lot of people down.

I did read that the problem Rita Hayworth said she had was that her husbands all wanted to wake up next to Gilda but instead woke up next to her.

I'd agree that most people in casinos including the front line workers and hosts don't know or think much about the odds or house edge.

But nearly all players are aware of Comps even if they don't know precisely how they are calculated, and will argue for the last bit to be picked up off their bills.

Tournaments - I made it far enough in one that I won a couple thou in promo chips (promo means - play 'til you lose). Haven't used them yet.

It was a Baccarat tournament and on the table I was eliminated I got down to my last 20K in chips (started with 50K, and 20K was the max bet excepting the final (non-secret bet) hand). At that point with only 20K in chips I was almost in last place as far as chip stack on the table with 6 of us, and 1 would advance.

I said to myself that I was just going to shove to the max all the way on Bank, and in fact Bank ran 6 times in a row all the way to the end with an intervening tie (that I hit for $2000., and I wagered the tie only twice on that table the entire tournament), but then for some reason I eased off, and on one hand I even went Player via a contrarian bet such that on the last hand I had about 65K chips and the two ahead of me had about 100K and about 80K. If I had kept shoving to the max I would have had so many chips last hand that I could have written my own ticket and advanced no matter what, but saying and doing are sometimes two different things.

Luckily on the last hand I wagered after those two chip leaders, and both went on Bank. The 100K player took literally ten minutes to decide what to do, it was absurd kept counting and recounting stacks, until finally placed 70K on Bank. The next player put some on the exotics but placed all the rest on Bank too.

If I had gone all in on Bank, and Bank won, I could not have caught either one, so I went all in on Player which was the only way I could win. The other 3 players were irrelevant, had too few chips to matter no matter what or where they wagered last hand.

Last hand remained Bank, and I was eliminated did not advance to the final table. But everyone who made it to the penultimate table was in the money, even me who ended that table with 0.

Day 2 play

Bets actually got as high as $10K, but end result was modest. Was down as much as -$30K at the low.

+4200

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 3 play

Long session. Was up as much as +$21K, down as much as -$52K, and the down part came after the up, which is unfortunate, but all's well that ends well.

+450

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 4 play

Played on and off all day, few sessions. First session was down around -45K at the low, ended a few thousand ahead. Won handily other two sessions. Hit a thousand dollar tie bet (bet it rarely).

+34800

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 5 play

Played up to $40K a hand, which was definitely an advantage hand but also coming back from in the hole with various hands over time that didn't work out (was down about -60K at the low).

A lot of action.

+2100

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Definitely pretty busy, every casino and on the Strip, Christmas day, and more or more people will be arriving as we close in on New Year's.

Just to give an idea of how comps work against heavy play, on my Day 5 session based on my average bet, I had a $2.2M handle. To keep it simple, say a 1% expected loss, or $22K, 35% of that theo equals almost eight grand in comps earned in a single session. For a session where I barely won or lost (+$2100).

Quote: MDawg

Just to give an idea of how comps work against heavy play, on my Day 5 session based on my average bet, I had a $2.2M handle. To keep it simple, say a 1% expected loss, or $22K, 35% of that theo equals almost eight grand in comps earned in a single session. For a session where I barely won or lost (+$2100).
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Now imagine if you did that with over 100 different players accounts.

Quote: MDawg

Yours is a low end scheme.

I brought in a...wouldn't call a friend, an associate, with a $1M bankroll. Playing blackjack 5K a hand two hands at a time flat betting. Baccarat at own table, no advantage, up to $50K a hand. Casinos love that and love me for bringing them players like that who play where I say.

I could probably be an independent host with the caboose I have and outrank maybe some maybe most of the indies in town.

Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

Yours is a low end scheme.

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A lot of AP's would consider+2100 a low end scheme

I made a lot more the same day you posted that.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

Yours is a low end scheme.

link to original post

A lot of AP's would consider+2100 a low end scheme

I made a lot more the same day you posted that.
link to original post

You miss the point. He reported betting as much as $40k a hand. Up $2k is literally just 5% of ONE BET. Or essentially ‘nothing’. That particular session is basically a ‘break even’ session. But if it keeps getting you upscale RFB, future match play chips, free entry into lucrative tournaments, etc…, it’s worth it.

Just went. Got $15 free bet which won ($14.25). Also got $15 free slot play (from Bill’s win) which turned into around $50. (4 9’s on J or B). So $65. I was happy. (That’s why there is no Adventuresof SOOPOO thread!)

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: darkoz

Quote: MDawg

Quote: MDawg

Yours is a low end scheme.

link to original post

A lot of AP's would consider+2100 a low end scheme

I made a lot more the same day you posted that.
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You miss the point. He reported betting as much as $40k a hand. Up $2k is literally just 5% of ONE BET. Or essentially ‘nothing’. That particular session is basically a ‘break even’ session. But if it keeps getting you upscale RFB, future match play chips, free entry into lucrative tournaments, etc…, it’s worth it.

Just went. Got $15 free bet which won ($14.25). Also got $15 free slot play (from Bill’s win) which turned into around $50. (4 9’s on J or B). So $65. I was happy. (That’s why there is no Adventuresof SOOPOO thread!)
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I judge the value of an AP by how little I can wager for how high my profits are.

If you want to base it on how high you can risk for how low your profit is go ahead knock your self out.

Quote: darkoz

I judge the value of an AP by how little I can wager for how high my profits are.
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I must be your hero then..

Quote: SOOPOO

Just went. Got $15 free bet which won ($14.25). Also got $15 free slot play (from Bill’s win) which turned into around $50. (4 9’s on J or B). So $65. I was happy. (That’s why there is no Adventuresof SOOPOO thread!)
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I would follow your trip adventures.

Quote: SOOPOO

You miss the point. He reported betting as much as $40k a hand. Up $2k is literally just 5% of ONE BET. Or essentially ‘nothing’. That particular session is basically a ‘break even’ session. But if it keeps getting you upscale RFB, future match play chips, free entry into lucrative tournaments, etc…, it’s worth it.
link to original post

Correct. Comps and other advantages based on theo loss are what the perpetual comp machine is all about.

Day 6 play

Pretty steady winning, broke away near the end to a decent take.

+16400

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 7 play

Some backslide, after a long session, and a lot of big bets, all of which worked until they didn't!

There was a second session where I actually won back about 20K, but then lost that and just left.

-64500

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

What's irksome is I was just at this particular casino for an event and decide "to play a little." 😅

Quote: MDawg

Day 7 play

Some backslide, after a long session, and a lot of big bets, all of which worked until they didn't!

There was a second session where I actually won back about 20K, but then lost that and just left.

-64500

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post

Playing for that much money why don't you have a stop loss. If I lose even a very small amount I stop because it's not playing my game. If you're losing that much right in the middle of it happening don't you realize it's not playing your game?

Well if you look at my other sessions this trip I was down quite a lot in a few of them and still came back to win. I just got too used to always winning.

The first session where I flat out lost I actually came back from about -40000 to a -14000 then spilled downwards from there. That session I was never ahead.

The session that bothers me more is the second one where I was ahead 20 then lost all that to leave with nothing but when I was ahead 20 I wanted to win at least 30 to recover half of the other session’s loss.

Over all obviously I should have just walked at -14000 and not tried to be even and then the next session would have actually taken me ahead for the day.

You must be kicking yourself now.

Quote: MDawg

Well if you look at my other sessions this trip I was down quite a lot in a few of them and still came back to win. I just got too used to always winning.

The first session where I flat out lost I actually came back from about -40000 to a -14000 then spilled downwards from there. That session I was never ahead.

The session that bothers me more is the second one where I was ahead 20 then lost all that to leave with nothing but when I was ahead 20 I wanted to win at least 30 to recover half of the other session’s loss.

Over all obviously I should have just walked at -14000 and not tried to be even and then the next session would have actually taken me ahead for the day.
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You play far differently than I do. I very much believe in inertia in playing, that if a game turns against me it's going to continue turning against me into the near future so it's not productive for me to keep playing. And the opposite is true also. If it's playing my game inertia says it's going to continue to play my game for at least the next little while. Of course it's random outcomes, but it's a fact that random outcomes move in certain directions sometimes and sometimes they're just well, random. Being able to tell the difference means the difference between winning and losing or just wasting my time.

Maybe, but I play with an advantage same way I believe I trade stocks advantageously. So, I just "hold" until I win. That has worked almost always with each stock trade, not nearly always with each casino play session.

Cybertruck blew up in front of the Trump hotel Vegas a bit ago.

https://x.com/kaaaassuu/status/1874506594425381133?mx=2

Quote: MDawg

https://x.com/kaaaassuu/status/1874506594425381133?mx=2


link to original post

Possibly the funniest thing I've seen this year.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: MDawg

https://x.com/kaaaassuu/status/1874506594425381133?mx=2


link to original post

Possibly the funniest thing I've seen this year.
link to original post

Didn't one die and several people were injured? If so, you have a stange sense of humor. Happy New year's, I guess.

It exploded like fireworks and is now being investigated as a possible terrorism incident. There's a lot of terrorism going on in the USA this particular day.

BREAKING: Cybertruck which exploded at Trump Hotel in Las Vegas and truck used in New Orleans attack were both rented through carsharing app Turo - AP
BREAKING: 🚨🚨🚨 Elon Musk has confirmed that the explosion near Trump’s hotel involving the Cybertruck was caused by large fireworks or a bomb placed in the truck’s bed, with no connection to the vehicle itself.

Thing is the car was smoking out from its tires before it exploded.

Are you SAFE in Vegas? Massive EXPLOSION at Trump Tower. - Not Leaving Las Vegas



Las Vegas police release footage showing the remains of fuel canisters in the Cybertruck.



“Law enforcement in Las Vegas says that Elon Musk shared “additional information” with them about the Tesla Cybertruck that exploded and video from charging stations around the country”

Teslas automatically lock their passengers inside the vehicle if the vehicle catches fire. Elon helped unlock it.

Cybertruck which exploded at the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas was filled with "fireworks-style mortars," according to ABC
************************************************************************************************************
"Rags that have been soaked in oils or other flammable liquids can spontaneously combust under certain conditions. This is because the oils undergo a chemical process called oxidation, which releases heat energy when exposed to air. The potential for spontaneous combustion increases when the surrounding air is warm and dry, or when there is heat radiating from nearby sources."

Yes it is starting to have the look and feel of terrorism, from what I am seeing. Only in movies do cars explode without explosives being put in them. This was going on around the same time as the motel fire and that could be smelled all over the place.

Apparently it was a former U.S. serviceman.

Since this is the MDawg thread, have you ever taken Mr. Trump’s $$ at any of his tables?

A friend who stays at Trump goes to the Strip casinos to play - as far as I know, Trump has no casino in Vegas.

But when I beat some of the Trump backing casinos like Venetian/Palazzo or T.I., I suppose that is taking "his" money?

Quote: DRich

Apparently it was a former U.S. serviceman.
link to original post

possible teorisisim isn't funny.

Quote: MDawg

A friend who stays at Trump goes to the Strip casinos to play - as far as I know, Trump has no casino in Vegas.

But when I beat some of the Trump backing casinos like Venetian/Palazzo or T.I., I suppose that is taking "his" money?
link to original post

Treat TI gently! It's one of the last places I can go where I feel like I'm in Vegas.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

Quote: MDawg

https://x.com/kaaaassuu/status/1874506594425381133?mx=2


link to original post

Possibly the funniest thing I've seen this year.
link to original post

Didn't one die and several people were injured? If so, you have a stange sense of humor. Happy New year's, I guess.
link to original post

I didn't realize there might be a violent aspect.
I took it to be one of the cybertrucks experiencing one of the anecdotal product failures in a conspicuous location.

In context, it's less amusing.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

Quote: MDawg

https://x.com/kaaaassuu/status/1874506594425381133?mx=2


link to original post

Possibly the funniest thing I've seen this year.
link to original post

Didn't one die and several people were injured? If so, you have a stange sense of humor. Happy New year's, I guess.
link to original post

I didn't realize there might be a violent aspect.
I took it to be one of the cybertrucks experiencing one of the anecdotal product failures in a conspicuous location.

In context, it's less amusing.
link to original post

I totally understand, I'll even say my bad for not asking if you realized the seriousness of it. I guess a lot of people didn't realize how serious it was and people thought it was just one of his cyber trucks blowing up.

Exterior video shows magnitude of blast.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CyberStuck/s/NkSq4uqsop

Day 8 play

Two pretty long sessions.

+42000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 9 play

Pretty major hit. Played up to 50K a hand (that was a bet that was done when I was down about the same).

+73600

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

Day 10 play

I was taking it quite easy or I could have quite easily emptied a good portion of the tray. Was literally a million dollar session if I had played it strongly.

I was fooling around, having too good of a time winning, forget to pour it on.

+62000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.

That’s 3 days in a row for total around $180k! What was your biggest tip to a waitress? To the dealers?

I still haven’t broken the $1 tip to the dealer. I do bet a bunch of them in succession if wanting to tip ‘big’.

Do you ‘tip’ your hosts for Xmas? Or do they ‘tip’ you!?!

After that big losing session I’ve been on a heater. The goal is…well I don’t want to say but it’s up there. I’m just trying to be patient but that Day 10 session I could have easily surpassed that goal in just thirty minutes of win after win after win after…of play. So one way to look at that session is I won over sixty grand. Another is that I majorly screwed up and left far more on the table.

I don’t hand the dealers money I put it on the side so that they win only if I win. They’ve hit a lot of tie bets with me lately. I’ve put two grand or more in their toke boxes in a session lately.

I tip the waitresses the same - $5 per drink , $10 to the butlers for butler drink service if I am at a salon that has butler service. Pretty much the only time I’ve tipped $25 was to a waitress I ended up dating, years ago. 😃

I did hand $10 to the lady who cleans up around the tables and have been known to tip the bathroom cleaners too. I feel like no one ever gives them anything so I like to give them something sometimes.

It seems like the days of the $100 happy handshake to the pit bosses are over. Probably they’d be afraid nowadays to take the money. I haven’t tipped a pit boss in years.

My independent host makes money off my play - indie’s get a lot more off a winning player like me who has a high average and plays a lot than the small amount they get as a percentage of actual losses. Since my indie makes money off me told that host I’m not giving any gifts! but the in house hosts who are salary only I do give gifts to every now and then.

Two of my hosts are in the doghouse. One permanently. The one host doesn’t seem to like that I always win because has said so in a pejorative way. The other has been screwing up and forgetting to remind me of all available promos. The latter host will make it up to me. The other one I wish I could switch but that host is the top host at that property in charge of the biggest players so I’m told I can’t switch.

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Default How do you win at Baccarat?

Most people look at the game like a random coin toss with a house edge. Such people could never win a nickel at Baccarat.

If Baccarat were truly random, with each hand completely independent from the prior one, there would be, in theory no way to win at the game. Looking from the outside, this appears to be what the game is - with prior hands offering no predictive value to guessing subsequent, future hands.

But any Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips knows that there are some shoes where patterns do repeat, versus other shoes that are completely random. But how to know if you're in the midst of a good shoe or bad shoe. Ay, there's the rub.

Let's start with an example of a good shoe, one with predictive value:
Click image for larger version.

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In this shoe, the pattern very early on was to bet the bank whenever player came up. Even if you lost such a bet, doubling up on the bank for the next bet was a sure thing, because player never ran more than twice. This shoe was not just a banker's shoe, with far more bankers than players (3 bankers for every 1 player), but presented a simple, easy to follow pattern of "put everything on the bank after each player." You'd lose only two bets out of sixteen doing that.

If you think that people don't notice or act on such patterns in Baccarat, think again. I cut a shoe where neither the banker nor the player EVER went past two. On its surface, a lousy shoe - no runs, no streaks. But a Chinese guy came along, watched for a few minutes, and started putting anywhere from 5000 - 15000 on the opposite side every time a run of two had passed. He cleaned up! He prompted the rest of us to realize that there WAS in fact a winning pattern presented, and to take advantage of it.

There are many different types of shoes that present winning opportunities. Another is a shoe with long streaks of banker or player. My personal best and favorite was a shoe where the player ran 22 times in a row, followed by one bank, followed by 26 players in a row. I was betting 15,000 per hand on the third player, and it all the way through until I was ahead a quarter million over all, and then, unfortunately, cut back to just 800 per hand. Still, that run was the tail end of an over 400K win at two casinos, and I stopped after the run, and went home with all of it.

The first question would be, WHY would you have thought that the player was going to run after just two players. What made you decide to plop 15000 (the limit at that time) on player just because it had run twice? It was early in the shoe, why risk so much so quickly? Well, part of the reason was that I was already ahead quite a lot, and had been winning consistently, day in day out for about ten days straight, so I was chip heavy, and fearless. But also, I saw a natural nine followed by a natural eight in player, and something prompted me to feel that the player was due for a run. I even said the words out loud.

"Natural nine. Natural eight? Hmm."

As the run progressed the look on the pit boss' face! He actually slapped his forehead and stepped away from the table, reeling.

"Is anything going to stop this guy?" was what his look conveyed. I had been winning ten days straight, and was now in the home stretch, with the run of a lifetime.

I will admit that this experience has made me feel as though a player run is imminent, not every time, but sometimes, after the first two hands for player come in at natural nine, followed by natural eight. Has the player then run 22 times? No. It hasn't happened for me again. But, the player has run more often than not when I have felt that it will, and the proof in the pudding are my consistent Baccarat wins over time.

Now what about bad shoes? shoes where there is no discernible pattern and no runs? What to do there? Well, ideally, LEAVE, but at worst, cut back your bet. How do you know though that you're in the midst of a bad shoe? Well, the easiest way to know is that you are LOSING over fifty percent of your bets. If all your attempts to "follow the shoe" are resulting in multiple losing hands in a row, it's time to get up and find another shoe, cut back your bet, or free hand (ask for free hands to view results without betting) until a recurring pattern emerges. Of course this is easier said than done. Many Baccarat players upon losing some hands will start playing with emotion, betting bigger to try to catch up, versus simply getting up and leaving. Over time, the Baccarat winners learn not to "chase" losses, and Stay on Target with the search for good shoes only.

Which brings me to...hit and run. Some gamblers think that hit and run is meaningless, that over time a lifetime of sessions will even out wins and losses such that leaving ahead at given sessions will make no over all difference. Point made, but...not so much in Baccarat. The objective in Baccarat is to find a good shoe, hit the run, streak or pattern, and then...leave. Good shoes do not present themselves all the time (although, the past couple years I have been very lucky, where the majority of my shoes have been good, predictable and purple and yellow chip fruitful ones), and once presented with a good one, it is important to get up and leave.

Many times after a good Baccarat shoe I have declared, "It's not going to get any better than that," colored up, and left. This is discipline This comes after years of play. Hunting for good shoes, and LEAVING after playing into them and winning, is another key to success at Baccarat.

Some will read the above, be unable to grasp it, and declare that at the end of the day Baccarat is just like roulette, or like a coin toss, where each event is independent and what happens before has nothing to do with what happens after. Not quite. A coin toss, is truly an independent event as it gears up for a new event each time the coin is picked up to be tossed again. If I walk up to a coin lying on the ground, whether there will be twenty heads in a row or not, is undetermined in advance. It is not fixed. It all depends on the random probability of what ensues.

But if I walk up to a Baccarat shoe that has 22 players in a row followed by one bank followed by 26 players in a row ready to be dealt out from it, I WILL get every one of the players. There is zero chance that this will not happen. The cards are set in the deck. And this is the subtle but important distinction between a set deck of cards and a coin toss. It has nothing to do with superstition or gambler's fallacy that some shoes will have massive streaks or recurring patterns in them, and others will not. Once the shoe is shuffled, cut and the burn cards removed, whatever will be, will be, and it is up to you to take advantage of that shoe, or not. If you're lucky enough to walk up to a shoe with long streaks, and you are a good player, you will win a lot.

That there are, in fact, good or bad shoes is additionally demonstrated by the fact that high rollers routinely clock the casino for millions when presented with series of good, streaking, predictable shoes. The luck is not in picking the right hand per se, the luck is in arriving to play at a good shoe. Where the skill comes, is in knowing whether one is playing into a good or bad shoe. This is not something that may be taught. It comes with years of experience.

All great gamblers know when he clutch has arrived: the time to press the bet. Poor gamblers will chicken out when presented with these opportunities, and will instead press the bet at the wrong time, and lose it all.
Last edited by MDawg; 01-19-2020 at 09:45 AM

As I’ve said many times, I wasn’t playing private tables at that time so didn’t have a way to set them up necessarily for my advantage.

But even so the ability to know every card in play remaining and what has been played and what it means certainly is something that is light years above the average player. I daresay that level of recollective abilities based on what your associates have said about you is not something to which you could relate.

As I’ve said many times, I discount most of what you say about casinos and casino play especially anything to do with table games.

In any case - take the MDawg Challenge what are you waiting for?

Day 11 play

More arduous wins than on other days, but still wins.

+61000

Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.

And this is the MDawg challenge.