The Adventures of MDawg II
I have actually caught them while shore fishing on the Big Island Hawaii, where they are called Opakapaka. After all this would rather be in Hawaii right now. That's what the doctor ordered after all this casino play.
Quote: MDawgTried this fish recently. It is a Mediterranean pink snapper.
I love Snapper. I don't know if I have ever had Pink Snapped, but Red Snapper and Grouper are two of my favorite fish.
Over all though, horse racing seems like something it would be very difficult to win at regularly.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgHow negative EV is horse betting? Has it been calculated?
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Obviously it depends on the bets made. Most tracks hold out a flat percentage from the win/place/show market. I think 15% to 20% is typical.
Quote: DRichQuote: MDawgHow negative EV is horse betting? Has it been calculated?
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Obviously it depends on the bets made. Most tracks hold out a flat percentage from the win/place/show market. I think 15% to 20% is typical.
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NYRA used to do about 18% on W-P-S bets and more on exotic bets. Then you had the OTB surcharge of 5% on winning bets if you weren't on track. It may have changed , but that is the historic takeout.
s
NYRA was 15% for W/P/S when I started over 30 years ago. Most tracks were 17% WPS and up to 22% for exotics. That is a tough nut to crack.Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: MDawgHow negative EV is horse betting? Has it been calculated?
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Obviously it depends on the bets made. Most tracks hold out a flat percentage from the win/place/show market. I think 15% to 20% is typical.
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NYRA used to do about 18% on W-P-S bets and more on exotic bets. Then you had the OTB surcharge of 5% on winning bets if you weren't on track. It may have changed , but that is the historic takeout.
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I did inter-pool arbitrage with a handheld HP computer at the track over 30 years ago, but I never made much money. When PPs became available on the internet in the early 90s I was handicapping the second leg of daily doubles, third leg of pick 3s, etc and making money. The parimutuel line was always quite efficient for the current race, but very inefficient for the last race in an exotic. If I could find a 3-1 ML favorite that I thought would go off at 4-5 I could usually get effective odds of 7-5 or even 2-1 betting all the horses in the first leg of the DD. Horses that go off at 4-5 usually return about 90% in the win pool, so getting 7-5 on them is great if you can do it fairly consistently.
By the mid nineties, syndicates in Asia were killing the pools at all the tracks in the US, and I switched to video poker.
Something odd that I discovered while do Harville analysis: If you rank all the horses in the race by their win pool money, every rank has almost exactly the same chance of finishing third in the race. The favorite has about the same chance of finishing third as the 6th favorite.
Next thing you know the same player is betting twenty, twenty five, thirty thousand a hand and losing one hand after another. And again, looking from the outside you know he's betting into a crappy shoe where there is no run or discernible pattern of any kind in progress.
None of this is scientific, but I see it time and again - players barely betting when they are achieving extremely high win hand ratios, and then jacking the bet to the moon trying desperately to catch up when they're losing. And the more they get behind the more they bet trying to catch up quickly, so that even if they do catch a couple big hands, it's not enough, and they keep pushing at max until all their chips are gone.
I play at a private table, sometimes in the back away from all that, and just for the sake of not having to see people chasing losses and end up wiped out, it's a good thing. I hate seeing that sort of thing, it is beyond depressing. In Baccarat there are periods when your average player with no edge will clean up, and periods when the same player can't even seem to win a hand. And given that the average player does not flat bet, the losses add up if the player's betting big at the bad times.
On a recent trip I saw one player who had already dumped a half million. Would pull only 10K at a time now, trying to be cautious, but no matter how far that 10K got, it was never enough and the player would keep dumping another 10K at a time.
Another player had dumped $2M and was down to about $50K. Took that last $50K all the way to a couple hundred thousand, but, it wasn't enough kept playing and eventually lost that too. And the horrible hands that player was experiencing on the way back down, like where in a six card draw the other side was reduced all the way to 1, but the player would draw the one damned card that reduced to 0.
In a vacuum, playing without the desire or need to chase losses, taking 10K to 30 or 40K was great, as was taking 50K to 200K. But when the mind set of "get it all back or nothing" sets in, wipeouts happen far more often than getting back to even. And I've seen players get back to even against all odds, but then want their profit ahead that they had before the spill, and end up losing everything again.
I could use a clone to just swoop in, scoop up the offers, and bring them to me.
Quote: MDawgLot of offers and promo chips being offered my way, but not going to Vegas anytime soon have other things to do.
I could use a clone to just swoop in, scoop up the offers, and bring them to me.
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DatkOz could do it for you. He would just need an MDawg mask.
https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/v/t66.30100-16/10000000_659174626244384_5430975204100312305_n.mp4?_nc_ht=scontent-ord5-1.cdninstagram.com&_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=5mt-ik0bhQQAX-At-TZ&edm=AP_V10EBAAAA&ccb=7-5&oh=00_AfAbEnXkMLXL-VSi151wWgc-Zuz1W4KDGoso_6IXtDSIFw&oe=64CD4170&_nc_sid=2999b8
“But it’s nothing you can do.”
Part 2 !
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvdaNb7tUX4/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
“You better walk tonight!”
Quote: MDawgPart 1
https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/v/t66.30100-16/10000000_659174626244384_5430975204100312305_n.mp4?_nc_ht=scontent-ord5-1.cdninstagram.com&_nc_cat=1&_nc_ohc=5mt-ik0bhQQAX-At-TZ&edm=AP_V10EBAAAA&ccb=7-5&oh=00_AfAbEnXkMLXL-VSi151wWgc-Zuz1W4KDGoso_6IXtDSIFw&oe=64CD4170&_nc_sid=2999b8
“But it’s nothing you can do.”
Part 2 !
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvdaNb7tUX4/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
“You better walk tonight!”
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Loved it!! The guy with the stick was a really bad striker. It seems that most of the hits went to the dude's foot. I would have made him re-stock the shelves and then nailed him in the knee.
tuttigym
It was hilarious when the thief started complaining about how he couldn't walk due to getting hit and the bystander advised him that he'd better walk tonight! implying that or else he'd be headed to jail. Plus the thief had the nerve to ask for a soda on the way out. I wonder if the clerks ever even phoned the police. Maybe not.
Assuming they could articulate what was going on, short of saying "He has a gun!" the police wouldn't have even shown up anytime soon for a cigarette theft in progress.
After the guy stood up and hobbled outside he seemed homeless, and then it looked like he just blended in with the other homeless outside. Where was he going to go with all those cigarettes anyway? he obviously didn't have a car.
I was already aware of Sam Peckinpaw's style of slowing down the action when characters are shot up. Mentioned that to my wife, as I have seen The Wild Bunch
Pretty strong MEAT there, from Sam PeckinPAW. 😅
Quote: MDawgWatched The Getaway for the first time recently. I am not familiar with much of Ali McGraw's work, but was her wooden style of acting, especially her flat monotonous voice, in that movie considered, good?
I was already aware of Sam Peckinpaw's style of slowing down the action when characters are shot up. Mentioned that to my wife, as I have seen The Wild Bunch
Pretty strong MEAT there, from Sam PeckinPAW. 😅
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Yeah she wasn't the greatest emotive actress.
She was dating the producer of the studio Bob Evans. In fact it was on the Getaway she ended up having affair and dumping bob for Steve McQueen.
She isn't too bad in Convoy, another Peckinpah film.
Quote: darkozQuote: MDawgWatched The Getaway for the first time recently. I am not familiar with much of Ali McGraw's work, but was her wooden style of acting, especially her flat monotonous voice, in that movie considered, good?
I was already aware of Sam Peckinpaw's style of slowing down the action when characters are shot up. Mentioned that to my wife, as I have seen The Wild Bunch
Pretty strong MEAT there, from Sam PeckinPAW. 😅
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Yeah she wasn't the greatest emotive actress.
She was dating the producer of the studio Bob Evans. In fact it was on the Getaway she ended up having affair and dumping bob for Steve McQueen.
She isn't too bad in Convoy, another Peckinpah film.
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If you’re interested, there is a very good show (I think it streams on Paramount+) called The Offer. It’s about the making of The Godfather. Evans and McGraw are characters, and it is around the time of the filming of Getaway.
Quote: MDawgThis was an interesting session. Occurred over the past year, not necessarily during the current trip. I reported it, but not all the details. I didn't want to report it too close to when it happened because I felt like the incident was memorable enough to stick in who knows whose craw for a while.
I played at a casino where I have not played in a very long time. I have a player card there, but no credit line.
I bought in for $35,000. DD Blackjack. 3:2. Regular table. Decent rules.
My min bet was 100, max 5000. I played in that range. I jammed the bet whenever the count was high enough and my total recall of every card played and the sequence of the most recent cards out, told me to jam it up there.
I was playing alone at times, with up to three other players at times.
Eventually, I declared that I was going to take every single (500) chip from the dealer's tray, and wasn't going to stop until I had them all. I wasn't collecting any 1000s, pretty much just 100s and 500s.
It took a very long time, something like ten hours of almost straight play. And there was a lot of back and forth, but eventually, with the final hand being a 5000 one I did it. Now, at this particular casino, every single (500) in the tray wasn't a fortune. But it was a lot. This wasn't one of the majors.
But what's funny is that afterwards, I ran into one of the players who had been at my table, who was surprised that I hadn't cleared many times what I cleared, as in emptied out at least all the 1000 and many of 5000 chips too, because this player mentioned that if I had played flat out there were long periods when I was winning every single hand. But, I didn't look at it that way, I was pressing only when I saw the edge.
But still, to go into a casino, declare a lofty goal, and meet it...pretty nice.
It doesn't always work out that way, or even close. But this time, it did.
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I have been asked to comment on this post.
Before I do so, let me remind the forum of the liberal free speech policy. However, it's also allowed to call out incredible claims, like Alan's 18 yo's. Reminder also that while you can challenge a post, you can't insult the poster.
That said, this story I find hard to believe. A 50 to 1 spread in a double deck game, while counting? As a counter for 37 years now (man, I'm old), this already seems ridiculous. The only way it might be allowed was if the counter was a bad counter, which does happen.
If you were betting up to $5,000, I would expect wins to be paid in yellows, assuming that is as high as the chips went. To pay in ten purples when yellows are in the rack also doesn't seem believable.
Let's pay close attention to this part.
Quote: MDawgI jammed the bet whenever the count was high enough and my total recall of every card played and the sequence of the most recent cards out, told me to jam it up there.
Total recall of every card? Are you saying you have a Rain Man kind of ability to remember every card played?
The sequence of the most recent cards? This would seem to say you're either shuffle tracking or (must restrain myself here) have a baccarat-player like belief that the cards run in patterns. Which is it?
Finally the part about the rack not being refilled doesn't seem realistic. Maybe I could see this in a jurisdiction where it's illegal to back off counters. However, in Vegas, they either want your action or they don't. I will admit I've never played at a level where I was any threat to clean out the rack. At the level you claim to play, I don't see casinos using passive aggressive tactics like this. If they didn't want your action, they would just get of you and then put you in OSN or whatever database of cheats and advantage players casinos are using these days.
That said, I welcome your reply. Thank you.
As far as "Rain Man kind of ability" I don't think it's such a big thing to be able to know every card that has been played. Nico the Baccarat King was supposed to be able to track every card played and know what remained in the deck over eight decks.
Rain Man was fictionalized but what enabled him to do what he did was not just ability to remember every card played, but ability to track every card the way he tracked all those toothpicks that fell on the ground. He was able to watch the cards as they were shuffled and know where each one was placed. "There's lots of them." He didn't just know that there were a lot of queens left in the deck but where they had landed and where they would be coming out. The ultimate in shuffle tracking.
You took my queen. I've got a ten. I needed that queen.
- I can't take it. - Sir, please don't touch the cards.
- I need my own queen. - There's lots of them.
- 'There's lots of them'? - Lots and lots of them.
Hold on here for a second.
I'm gonna double down.
Queen. Queen.
- Queen. - Yes!
During the play there was a time I did bet 5000 that I expected at least a twenty but got a blackjack. Another time I got an 11 and the expected face/ten fell for 21, for a 10000 win. Another time I doubled with 5000 out there and got a stupid 5 but the expected tens landed later to bust the dealer who had a 6 up, with what turned out to be a 10 underneath.
I didn't want any yellows whenever the dealers tried to give me them I'd refuse them. Actually, I don't think there's even a day when I'm in high limit that I don't see at least one player stubbornly refusing to be paid in a certain color of chips, especially a certain high denomination one. They probably just figured I was some kind of superstitious player who wanted only color for color, but I wanted to see if I could get all the 500s and I did. The lion's share of the winning came towards the end of the session actually which is probably why I was able to empty before a fill came in, and then I left.
If I told you which casino this was and what time it was, you'd probably understand better why there was no fill, too.
Quote: MDawgAs far as "Rain Man kind of ability" I don't think it's such a big thing to be able to know every card that has been played. Nico the Baccarat King was supposed to be able to track every card played and know what remained in the deck over eight decks.
Do you/did you know Nico? Was he ever banned from LV? Verified witness accounts of Nico? Wizard, are you aware of Nico? "Rainman" was fiction. Is Nico? Your accounting for me, is still hard to believe.
tuttigym
“Why Don’t You Speak for Yourself, John?”
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
I'd name the number I have in mind for the challenge, but then that person would probably say that I am naming an absurdly high number just to scare him off.
I wasn't planning on coming back to Vegas anytime soon, but for this, I might if the figure is high enough.
Edit: If we are going to do this, let me know immediately. I will leave this challenge offer on the table for two days.
Nico Zoographic
Nicolas “Nicky the Greek” Zoographic is a famous baccarat player who lived during the early twentieth century. He was a member of a group of gamblers who toured European casinos. They made a fortune playing high-stakes games of baccarat, and Zoographic was renowned for his memorization skills and mathematical abilities. His memory allowed him to memorize every card in a baccarat game and alerted his team when the odds were in their favor.
During the early 20th century, Zoographic was a member of the Greek Syndicate, which controlled all baccarat tables. He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks. Zoographic also had an amazing ability to gauge fluctuations in odds in favor of the bank, and he was able to make the best bets according to that information.
Quote: MDawgSomeone obviously groaned to the Wizard about bringing this up, someone who either is unable or unwilling to ask the questions himself.
“Why Don’t You Speak for Yourself, John?”
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
I'd name the number I have in mind for the challenge, but then that person would probably say that I am naming an absurdly high number just to scare him off.
I wasn't planning on coming back to Vegas anytime soon, but for this, I might if the figure is high enough.
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Sounds like another EB to move the goal posts and thus intimidate the skeptics. There is a huge difference of memorizing the play of one deck to the play of six or eight decks. I do like the sculpture.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgHe was playing six decks "only" apparently. 😁
Nico Zoographic
Nicolas “Nicky the Greek” Zoographic is a famous baccarat player who lived during the early twentieth century. He was a member of a group of gamblers who toured European casinos. They made a fortune playing high-stakes games of baccarat, and Zoographic was renowned for his memorization skills and mathematical abilities. His memory allowed him to memorize every card in a baccarat game and alerted his team when the odds were in their favor.
During the early 20th century, Zoographic was a member of the Greek Syndicate, which controlled all baccarat tables. He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks. Zoographic also had an amazing ability to gauge fluctuations in odds in favor of the bank, and he was able to make the best bets according to that information.
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In the "early twentieth century," was the game played with multiple decks dealt from a shoe or just one deck that was not shuffled after every hand? Were you there? Being a card counter with only one deck in play is no big deal.
tuttigym
Baccarat hasn't changed other than maybe he was playing a version back then that included two hands against the house. It is possible also that he was playing Chemin de Fer where there are limited occasions where the Player could stand or hit such as with a 5. If you read what I wrote it states that he played with SIX DECKS.
Anyway, I do what I do, I don't spend volumes trying to explain it, but if anyone wants to take up my CHALLENGE I am available. I could also take it the other way, how about if the person who made the challenge takes up the challenge to prove that he could do what I do, tell me what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from a single deck were? You seem to be implying that would be easy, you up for such a challenge? I think it is easy, actually.
Quote: MDawgI'd think that being able to tell you what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from the deck were would prove my point.
Baccarat hasn't changed other than maybe he was playing a version back then that included two hands against the house. It is possible also that he was playing Chemin de Fer where there are limited occasions where the Player could stand or hit such as with a 5. If you read what I wrote it states that he played with SIX DECKS.
Anyway, I do what I do, I don't spend volumes trying to explain it, but if anyone wants to take up my CHALLENGE I am available. I could also take it the other way, how about if the person who made the challenge takes up the challenge to prove that he could do what I do, tell me what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from a single deck were? You seem to be implying that would be easy, you up for such a challenge? I think it is easy, actually.
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Another goal post move from a deck of 52 to half a deck. How about memorizing the last two hands?
tuttigym
Quote: MDawg
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
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Quote: MDawgI'd think that being able to tell you what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from the deck were would prove my point.
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Quote: tuttigym
Another goal post move from a deck of 52 to half a deck.
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Quote: MDawgHe was playing six decks "only" apparently. 😁
Nico Zoographic
He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks.
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Quote: tuttigymwas the game played with multiple decks dealt from a shoe or just one deck
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Why can't you even seem to remember what was posted that you read just a few minutes ago? You keep thinking something was "changed" when nothing was. No wonder you think it would be hard to do what I do.
Quote: MDawgQuote: MDawg
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
link to original postQuote: MDawgI'd think that being able to tell you what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from the deck were would prove my point.
link to original postQuote: tuttigym
Another goal post move from a deck of 52 to half a deck.
link to original postQuote: MDawgHe was playing six decks "only" apparently. 😁
Nico Zoographic
He had an amazing memory, and he was able to remember the order of three dozen cards when played with six decks.
link to original postQuote: tuttigymwas the game played with multiple decks dealt from a shoe or just one deck
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Why can't you even seem to remember what was posted that you read just a few minutes ago? You keep thinking something was "changed" when nothing was. No wonder you think it would be hard to do what I do.
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Why can't you remember what you posted about YOUR ability that the Wizard questioned?
Do you have documentation about Nico or just hand me down tall tales?
In all the years in between Nico and you, has there never been anyone else to replicate those skills?
Hard to believe.
tuttigym
Do you want to undergo the challenge? If not...
I had nothing to do with this, I think we all know who was behind it either directly or indirectly.Quote: MDawgSomeone obviously groaned to the Wizard about bringing this up, someone who either is unable or unwilling to ask the questions himself.
“Why Don’t You Speak for Yourself, John?”
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
I'd name the number I have in mind for the challenge, but then that person would probably say that I am naming an absurdly high number just to scare him off.
I wasn't planning on coming back to Vegas anytime soon, but for this, I might if the figure is high enough.
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Either way, can you just say the minimum number needed to accept a challenge that also includes the suits of cards? Also, would you be willing to have someone reputable with a background in anti-cheating observe, check and control the conditions to be certain that no shenanigans are taking place? I highly doubt anyone would be willing to put up a large sum of money on something where there's no verification other than Mike saying you did it. They might trust Mike's integrity and honesty in reporting what he believes he observed, but the stakes might be too high for there to only be one person running the challenge.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/35670-challenge-to-axelwolf-the-daddy-of-all-wagers/#post796763
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/35670-challenge-to-axelwolf-the-daddy-of-all-wagers/12/#post797552
so you may imagine that I wouldn't even bother for something like ten grand.
You have a point about that someone might think that a single person could be bought if enough money is involved, but we're talking about Wizard he knows I am a good person and I know the same about him.
I realize that whatever you have described as far as your "thing" in casinos does not involve recall ability, but maybe I'm just around certain types of people because I don't view the challenge I propose as extraordinary, which is part of why I'd expect the person who is challenging to put up a LOT of money it would prove that he really thinks it is not possible.
Quote: MDawgWhat's hard to believe is that you can't recognize that you keep accusing me of "changing" what I posted. I posted one challenge, I posted one statement about Nico, and you can't seem to be able to recollect clearly what was posted.
Do you want to undergo the challenge? If not...
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Quote: MDawg
My min bet was 100, max 5000. I played in that range. I jammed the bet whenever the count was high enough and my total recall of every card played and the sequence of the most recent cards out, told me to jam it up there.
That is YOUR quote detailing total recall of all cards played in a six or eight deck shoe. You then walked it back in your "challenge" to one deck. then again to 20-30 cards. Why not come to terms with th original challenge from the Wizard, or is the dismissal just your way to evade.
It that a picture of Nico in the above post?
tuttigym
And then, if you come up with something worthwhile and not just rehashing the same misreading mistakes, I'll respond again. Otherwise, not.
Wizard never proposed any challenge. I did. I made one challenge and never deviated from it. And that you can't seem to follow what I wrote in just a few short sentences accurately is no one's fault but your own.
Quote: MDawg
Anyway, I do what I do, I don't spend volumes trying to explain it, but if anyone wants to take up my CHALLENGE I am available. I could also take it the other way, how about if the person who made the challenge takes up the challenge to prove that he could do what I do, tell me what the last 20 - 30 cards that fell from a single deck were? You seem to be implying that would be easy, you up for such a challenge? I think it is easy, actually.
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I know 3 people that I am confident could pass this challenge. If you are serious about this challenge and the stakes (250-500k) let me know and I will ask if one of them is interested in taking it up. (To be clear the “other way” challenge where the challenger remembers the last 20-30 cards that fell from a single deck.)
Quote: AxelWolfI think we all know who was behind it either directly or indirectly.
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Quote: tuttigymyour "challenge" to one deck. then again to 20-30 cards. Why not come to terms with th original challenge from the Wizard
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This is essentially misquoting. It's just annoying when he keeps it up for multiple posts, would have let it go if he had released his misread at some point.
(1) I outlined one challenge.
Quote: MDawg
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
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(2) I did not "then again" change the challenge to 20-30 cards, 20-30 cards is half way through a single deck.
(3) Wizard made no challenge, "Why not come to terms with th original challenge from the Wizard" he just made some comments and asked for my reply.
Quote: MDawgQuote: tuttigymyour "challenge" to one deck. then again to 20-30 cards. Why not come to terms with th original challenge from the Wizard
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This is essentially misquoting. It's just annoying when he keeps it up for multiple posts, would have let it go if he had released his misread at some point.
(1) I outlined one challenge.Quote: MDawg
How about if that person puts up a good sum for a challenge, just a single deck for demonstration purposes. Wizard can deal a one on one game against me, normal speed, half way through the deck I will write down every card that has been played, in terms of each type of card, aces, 2s, 3s, etc. or more detail if the challenger so requires. The more detail, the more he had better put up.
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(2) I did not "then again" change the challenge to 20-30 cards, 20-30 cards is half way through a single deck.
(3) Wizard made no challenge, "Why not come to terms with th original challenge from the Wizard" he just made some comments and asked for my reply.
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Quote: Wizard
Total recall of every card? Are you saying you have a Rain Man kind of ability to remember every card played?
The sequence of the most recent cards? This would seem to say you're either shuffle tracking or (must restrain myself here) have a baccarat-player like belief that the cards run in patterns. Which is it?
That quote is a challenge to the veracity of your post. It goes to the integrity of how you say you play. You then put up the milk-toast challenge of single deck then 20 cards basically moving the goal posts. You can spin it any way you want. It is just not real.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgHi AWolf. In the past I have proposed Challenges to you of $250,000 - $500,000.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/35670-challenge-to-axelwolf-the-daddy-of-all-wagers/#post796763
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/35670-challenge-to-axelwolf-the-daddy-of-all-wagers/12/#post797552
so you may imagine that I wouldn't even bother for something like ten grand.
You have a point about that someone might think that a single person could be bought if enough money is involved, but we're talking about Wizard he knows I am a good person and I know the same about him.
I realize that whatever you have described as far as your "thing" in casinos does not involve recall ability, but maybe I'm just around certain types of people because I don't view the challenge I propose as extraordinary, which is part of why I'd expect the person who is challenging to put up a LOT of money it would prove that he really thinks it is not possible.
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I didn't say anything about The Wizard being bought. I'm saying that there are various cheating methods, tricks/scams that could be employed. I don't consider Mike an expert on all that type of stuff, perhaps he is above average, but not an expert. You say, "Wizard he knows I am a good person" (He does? Wouldnt that be considered hearsay at this point?)
If the Wizard believes you to be a good person, then that's even more reason to have an expert there to run the challenge as Mike would have a tendency to believe everything is on the up and up without hesitation and complete verification. No one putting up a significant amount of money would be comfortable enough with that situation.
Again, I ask... what's your number?
But Hey, don't you come to Vegas anyways, haven't you met up with Mike a number of times? Why do you need money to simply provide proof to Mike and us you can do this?
Since you don't consider it extraordinary then it should be fairly easy to convince Mike. It doesn't have to be anything elaborate, have Mike bring a few decks of cards to dinner at a restaurant(He seems to have an unlimited supply) and do your thing between ordering and getting served.
We have done stuff like this(bar challenges, prop bets, game bets, talent show-offs, etc, multiple multiple times for petty amounts of money $1-$100.
Here's one, I bet my wife could name any and all untitled state presidents by looking at any headshot they could find online(Headshot had to obviously be within reason)
And also because, why not? I know I can do it, and now UnJon has even stepped forward and said that it's not a big deal which is what I said from the beginning, so why not take someone for a huge sum if he's fool enough to challenge me.
I'm finding out that more than a few of the Vegas casinos have the same sort of thing set up, at least in California, with similarly quaint entity names, such as California Clearing. Obviously they want people to be able to wire prodigious sums to innocuous sounding businesses so few will know that they're gambling.
Quote: MDawgNo I am not interested in any sort of challenge for less than a substantial sum of money, partly because if the person who made this challenge (yes, you and I suspect who it is), is so sure that it cannot be done, I want to teach him a lesson that he will never forget. And if that person can't even come up with the sum I have in mind, that will be further proof that he's a _____.
And also because, why not? I know I can do it, and now UnJon has even stepped forward and said that it's not a big deal which is what I said from the beginning, so why not take someone for a huge sum if he's fool enough to challenge me.
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A red cape and OOO-LAY!
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgI agree that it would easy, and said so, which is why I directed it to "the person who made the challenge." Who is that?
Quote: AxelWolfI think we all know who was behind it either directly or indirectly.
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Got it. I have no idea. I’ll go back to my popcorn.
just curious if you don't mind my asking - what kind of counting system were you using____________?
because in card counting systems cards are not memorized - they're given a point value and then are added and subtracted
for example - in the system known as Hi/Lo or Dubner -
2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are counted as plus 1_______7, 8 and 9 are counted as zero_________10, Jack, Queen, King and Ace are counted as minus 1
when the true count (the running count divided by the no. of decks remaining to be played) goes up past a certain point the player increases his bet because while playing basic strategy because he will now have an advantage and he will begin to increase his bet size in accordance with the size of his advantage
of course, it can be much more complex and basic can be adjusted based on the count and in other systems card values can be different, more complex, so the potential advantage of the player is greater
but memorizing cards - I'm not sure how that works - please explain - thanks
.
I've alluded to this directly or indirectly before. A couple people made fun of it when I referred to the "flow of the cards" what I mean obviously was what cards have come out. Also, I've referred many times to playing one on one or on first base and jamming the bet up when a sequence comes up where no tens/faces/aces have come up for a good long while and you'd expect the first card out the deck to be one of those.
But in sum, clearly, there would be times when knowing every card that has played would not mean a lot, and times when it would mean everything - just depends on what mixture and ratio of cards have come out, both over all, and recently. By recently mostly I mean from the most recent one going backwards.
Quote: tuttigym
Sounds like another EB to move the goal posts and thus intimidate the skeptics.
tuttigym
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What you don't know about it would fill a football field and what you do know would fill a thimble.
