The Adventures of MDawg II
September 27th, 2022 at 5:53:02 AM
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Quote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
September 27th, 2022 at 6:43:51 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
link to original post
So, you actually believe that Mdawg mind melds with the shoe to predict the next card to be dealt on one hand and the "rest of the shoes" there is no "connection"? That is his "AP"? There is ocean front property for sale in Death Valley.
tuttigym
September 27th, 2022 at 6:59:16 AM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
link to original post
So, you actually believe that Mdawg mind melds with the shoe to predict the next card to be dealt on one hand and the "rest of the shoes" there is no "connection"? That is his "AP"? There is ocean front property for sale in Death Valley.
tuttigym
link to original post
Maybe his edge sorting skills are limited to identifying 8s?
September 27th, 2022 at 7:11:27 AM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
link to original post
So, you actually believe that Mdawg mind melds with the shoe to predict the next card to be dealt on one hand and the "rest of the shoes" there is no "connection"? That is his "AP"? There is ocean front property for sale in Death Valley.
tuttigym
link to original post
Reading skills a bit lacking, tutti? Where did I say I believe him? My point is that his explanation of an advantage makes perfect sense. I also clearly pointed out that I don’t know if what he claimed is plausible! But I have had advantages of knowing a card many times in my career.
The one I’ll share happened years ago. Not exactly what we are talking about, but similar. Pai Gow dealer would place each 7 card pack in a way that I could usually see one card. There was one hand designated a ‘dragon hand’ that a player could take as a second hand for an equal bet to your first hand. If it had an ace or joker I’d take it, sometimes a king, too. Anything else I’d not take it. Not sure how +EV it was, but it definitely was +EV. Not enough to make real money, but I love those opportunities!
September 27th, 2022 at 8:08:57 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
link to original post
So, you actually believe that Mdawg mind melds with the shoe to predict the next card to be dealt on one hand and the "rest of the shoes" there is no "connection"? That is his "AP"? There is ocean front property for sale in Death Valley.
tuttigym
link to original post
Reading skills a bit lacking, tutti? Where did I say I believe him? My point is that his explanation of an advantage makes perfect sense. I also clearly pointed out that I don’t know if what he claimed is plausible! But I have had advantages of knowing a card many times in my career.
The one I’ll share happened years ago. Not exactly what we are talking about, but similar. Pai Gow dealer would place each 7 card pack in a way that I could usually see one card. There was one hand designated a ‘dragon hand’ that a player could take as a second hand for an equal bet to your first hand. If it had an ace or joker I’d take it, sometimes a king, too. Anything else I’d not take it. Not sure how +EV it was, but it definitely was +EV. Not enough to make real money, but I love those opportunities!
link to original post
Perhaps my interpretation was a bit shoddy, however, one card on one hand out of dozens of hands, perhaps hundreds of hands? One wager? I can only conclude that the rest is just gambling. For me, the term AP means a sort of consistency that would provide enough of an "edge" to make a winning difference, but that is just me.
tuttigym
September 27th, 2022 at 8:26:54 AM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: tuttigymQuote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 11 play.
Baccarat.
One advantage hand came up. Knew the first card out would be an 8. Bet Player, somewhat high bet, $6000., did receive the 8,
Rest of the shoes, no advantage hands but I won anyway.
WELL FINALLY! It took maybe 5000 posts but now we have you giving us a CLEAR example of a +EV play you made! One which all of us disbelievers can wrap our heads around. I don’t play high stakes baccarat at a private table so I have no idea how likely it can be to know the next card out of the deck before it is dealt, but I can CLEARLY tell it is an AP opportunity if you can! I’m sure you are aware if you know it’s NOT an 8 or 9 Banker has an edge (not sure on 7?), just smaller!
So do you use the mumbo jumbo of ‘betting into a streak’ or taking advantage of the alternating pattern’ as cover play for the easy, simple, clear AP opportunity you mentioned?
link to original post
So, you actually believe that Mdawg mind melds with the shoe to predict the next card to be dealt on one hand and the "rest of the shoes" there is no "connection"? That is his "AP"? There is ocean front property for sale in Death Valley.
tuttigym
link to original post
Reading skills a bit lacking, tutti? Where did I say I believe him? My point is that his explanation of an advantage makes perfect sense. I also clearly pointed out that I don’t know if what he claimed is plausible! But I have had advantages of knowing a card many times in my career.
The one I’ll share happened years ago. Not exactly what we are talking about, but similar. Pai Gow dealer would place each 7 card pack in a way that I could usually see one card. There was one hand designated a ‘dragon hand’ that a player could take as a second hand for an equal bet to your first hand. If it had an ace or joker I’d take it, sometimes a king, too. Anything else I’d not take it. Not sure how +EV it was, but it definitely was +EV. Not enough to make real money, but I love those opportunities!
link to original post
Perhaps my interpretation was a bit shoddy, however, one card on one hand out of dozens of hands, perhaps hundreds of hands? One wager? I can only conclude that the rest is just gambling. For me, the term AP means a sort of consistency that would provide enough of an "edge" to make a winning difference, but that is just me.
tuttigym
link to original post
We agree. Just you don’t understand the math. If I am betting $100 a hand on baccarat using mumbo jumbo streaks, patterns, hot or cold, etc…. say for 50 hands. On average I’ll lose maybe $50 or so. But on the ONE hand that I know player is getting a 9, I can make a $5k bet and on average win $500. If I can get that edge 1 in 50 hands it might be enough to give me the edge to have long term success. If it is once a year not so much.
Just to remind you most AP plays just tip the odds in your favor a little bit. Like card counting. But if it is a continuous occurrence, that 1% edge can be exploited for big $$$.
September 27th, 2022 at 12:13:45 PM
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Palms buffet AYCE - it's decent every day but lobster is only Thursdays.
Crab feast Wednesdays, with crab legs Wed, Th, Fri.
Crab feast Wednesdays, with crab legs Wed, Th, Fri.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 27th, 2022 at 12:21:54 PM
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From Caesars buffet.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 27th, 2022 at 6:34:24 PM
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Day 12 play.
Baccarat.
I actually LOST the expected win hand, but I still won anyway. I was never behind on the session, but never ahead massively either. Slow and steady is the name of the game I'm playing lately.
+6500
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
Baccarat.
I actually LOST the expected win hand, but I still won anyway. I was never behind on the session, but never ahead massively either. Slow and steady is the name of the game I'm playing lately.
+6500
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 27th, 2022 at 8:01:18 PM
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How long may the streak be maintained? Two three weeks at least, I am hoping!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 27th, 2022 at 8:10:39 PM
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It's easy to get wound up to try to get more. Easier though to just have a run, and walk.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 28th, 2022 at 8:39:38 AM
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Was really rattling and raining out there a bit ago.
Supposed to be sunny and clear in a half hour though. That's Vegas!
Supposed to be sunny and clear in a half hour though. That's Vegas!
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 28th, 2022 at 10:45:13 AM
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How did he get away?
Inmate serving life for fatal Vegas bombing escapes prison
Still, if he shows up in Vegas, he might just blend in. This is one of the hallmarks of Vegas hospitality. The only bedrock rule is Don’t Burn the Locals. Beyond that, nobody cares. They would rather not know. If Charlie Manson checked into the Sahara tomorrow morning, nobody would hassle him as long as he tipped big.
Inmate serving life for fatal Vegas bombing escapes prison
Still, if he shows up in Vegas, he might just blend in. This is one of the hallmarks of Vegas hospitality. The only bedrock rule is Don’t Burn the Locals. Beyond that, nobody cares. They would rather not know. If Charlie Manson checked into the Sahara tomorrow morning, nobody would hassle him as long as he tipped big.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 28th, 2022 at 10:52:05 AM
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You are married with no kids. If I was in your situation there is no way my wife would want to periodically be away from home in Vegas like you are. Even for free. Your wife doesn’t get bored, unhappy in sin city away from her friends? You go to the casino, you do some remote legal work, you work out a lot…. I guess she must like her away from home life?
October 1st, 2022 at 10:18:31 AM
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It's funny but she used to be the one who got sick of Vegas, and now I find myself tiring of it. Perhaps because it's becoming more like a job?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 12:22:49 PM
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Another Blackjack tournament, semi final table, only one person advances, two players left standing.
No secret bet.
Player #1 must bet first, chip count 21000.
bets 6000
Player #2 chip count 23000,
bets 6000
Correct bet? I think so, but look at what happens.
Dealer 5 up, Player #1 gets a hard 15, Player #2 a hard 14.
Surprisingly, Player #1 sits there forever debating. Obviously has to hit, because if stays, Player #2 will stay too and then no matter what the hand outcome Player #2 with more chips, will win.
After a long time, Player #1 doubles down, and gets...an ace.
So now Player #1 and Player #2 are still in the same position as far as hand outcome, but Player #1 has twice as many chips at stake.
What should Player #2 do?
No secret bet.
Player #1 must bet first, chip count 21000.
bets 6000
Player #2 chip count 23000,
bets 6000
Correct bet? I think so, but look at what happens.
Dealer 5 up, Player #1 gets a hard 15, Player #2 a hard 14.
Surprisingly, Player #1 sits there forever debating. Obviously has to hit, because if stays, Player #2 will stay too and then no matter what the hand outcome Player #2 with more chips, will win.
After a long time, Player #1 doubles down, and gets...an ace.
So now Player #1 and Player #2 are still in the same position as far as hand outcome, but Player #1 has twice as many chips at stake.
What should Player #2 do?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 12:29:04 PM
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Quote: MDawgAnother Blackjack tournament, semi final table, only one person advances, two players left standing.
No secret bet.
Player #1 must bet first, chip count 21000.
bets 6000
Player #2 chip count 23000,
bets 6000
Correct bet?
link to original post
Using Jeopardy! logic he should have bet 4001.
October 1st, 2022 at 12:35:11 PM
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Well Player #2 already bet 6000. So that's a done deal. (Player #2 has 2000 more chips than Player #1.)
I assume you mean Player #2 should have bet 4001?
What's the logic behind the 4001 bet? If Player #1 wins 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, Player #2 will then lose. And if Player #1 loses 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, then yes Player #2 will win but would win just the same by betting 6000, no?
Especially looking at the fact that Players #1 and #2 ended up both with stiff hands, coupled with the dealer 5 face up, the 6000 matching bet when Player #2 has more chips seems like it was the right choice.
But now Player #1 doubled his bet and remains in the same stiff hand position as Player #2.
Should Player #2 double down too? I'd say NO. But then after not doubling down should Player #2 hit or stand?
I assume you mean Player #2 should have bet 4001?
What's the logic behind the 4001 bet? If Player #1 wins 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, Player #2 will then lose. And if Player #1 loses 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, then yes Player #2 will win but would win just the same by betting 6000, no?
Especially looking at the fact that Players #1 and #2 ended up both with stiff hands, coupled with the dealer 5 face up, the 6000 matching bet when Player #2 has more chips seems like it was the right choice.
But now Player #1 doubled his bet and remains in the same stiff hand position as Player #2.
Should Player #2 double down too? I'd say NO. But then after not doubling down should Player #2 hit or stand?
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 12:57:00 PM
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Quote: MDawgWell Player #2 already bet 6000. So that's a done deal. (Player #2 has 2000 more chips than Player #1.)
I assume you mean Player #2 should have bet 4001?
What's the logic behind the 4001 bet? If Player #1 wins 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, Player #2 will then lose. And if Player #1 loses 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, then yes Player #2 will win but would win just the same by betting 6000, no?
link to original post
It's just a loss minimization strategy. If they both win, P1 has 27,000 but P2 has 27,001. If they both lose, P2 will lose less than if he bet 6000.
October 1st, 2022 at 1:01:24 PM
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Player 2 should Hit for 3 - 7 (preferably (4 -7) to win and hope the dealer draws minimum 17 to push player 2 at worst or lose to player 2.
Player 1 would lose 12k and player 2 pushes or wins 6000 ???
Player 1 would lose 12k and player 2 pushes or wins 6000 ???
October 1st, 2022 at 4:00:38 PM
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You’re just sick and tired of winning all the time. Gets boring after a whileQuote: MDawgIt's funny but she used to be the one who got sick of Vegas, and now I find myself tiring of it. Perhaps because it's becoming more like a job?
link to original post
It’s all about making that GTA
October 1st, 2022 at 4:05:06 PM
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Reason number 5,273 for a man to avoid marriageQuote: SOOPOOIf I was in your situation there is no way my wife would want to periodically be away from home in Vegas like you are.
It’s all about making that GTA
October 1st, 2022 at 11:43:37 PM
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Why I’m tired of Vegas - I’m not tired of winning. I’m tired of the ups and downs that I wasn’t particularly experiencing the first three years 2018 - 2020 of this particular journey. First three years I rarely had a big loser. Lately, seems like I have a loser every four or five sessions.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 11:45:57 PM
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Quote: TigerWuQuote: MDawgWell Player #2 already bet 6000. So that's a done deal. (Player #2 has 2000 more chips than Player #1.)
I assume you mean Player #2 should have bet 4001?
What's the logic behind the 4001 bet? If Player #1 wins 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, Player #2 will then lose. And if Player #1 loses 6000 and Player #2 loses 4001, then yes Player #2 will win but would win just the same by betting 6000, no?
link to original post
It's just a loss minimization strategy. If they both win, P1 has 27,000 but P2 has 27,001. If they both lose, P2 will lose less than if he bet 6000.
link to original post
P1 entered the final round with 21000.
P2 with 23000.
So if they both win with 6000, P1 will end with 27000, P2 with 29000. No need for P2 to bet less than P1.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 11:52:28 PM
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Quote: MDawgAnother Blackjack tournament, semi final table, only one person advances, two players left standing.
No secret bet.
Player #1 must bet first, chip count 21000.
bets 6000
Player #2 chip count 23000,
bets 6000
Correct bet? I think so, but look at what happens.
Dealer 5 up, Player #1 gets a hard 15, Player #2 a hard 14.
Surprisingly, Player #1 sits there forever debating. Obviously has to hit, because if stays, Player #2 will stay too and then no matter what the hand outcome Player #2 with more chips, will win.
After a long time, Player #1 doubles down, and gets...an ace.
So now Player #1 and Player #2 are still in the same position as far as hand outcome, but Player #1 has twice as many chips at stake.
What should Player #2 do?
link to original post
Quote: cwwbjrPlayer 2 should Hit for 3 - 7 (preferably (4 -7) to win and hope the dealer draws minimum 17 to push player 2 at worst or lose to player 2.
Player 1 would lose 12k and player 2 pushes or wins 6000 ???
link to original post
Well here is what actually happened.
Player #2 just stood, hoping for dealer bust. Dealer turned over a 10, making dealer's starting hand a hard 15, pulled a face card and busted.
Alternatively, if Player #2 had hit, would have busted, and then hoped that dealer would make a hand. Unfortunately, the next card out the deck was another face card, which the dealer went ahead and showed to the table after the round ended.
So, two faces were coming in a row after the ace that Player #1 drew. Player #2 was doomed.
Now the final outcome doesn't necessarily have a bearing on what Player #2 should have done, but, that's the final outcome of the tournament. Player #1 made it to the finals, Player #2 did not.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 1st, 2022 at 11:55:47 PM
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Day 15 play.
Baccarat.
Was playing pretty hard and was up as much as 16000 but I made it out with a clean 11K or so.
+11400
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
Baccarat.
Was playing pretty hard and was up as much as 16000 but I made it out with a clean 11K or so.
+11400
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:06:35 PM
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What is the senpai kohai relationship?
In general it is a honorable relationship where the older man guides the younger, and is presumed to exist in Japan, where the senior man guides the junior.
https://twitter.com/Retronianne/status/1452322909775699971
You see something like this a lot at the Baccarat tables, where the big bettor places his bets first and then no one dares to bet against him, because it would be considered impolite and bad luck. At most, a player who disagrees might briefly place a stack of chips in the opposing circle to make clear his thoughts, and then remove them. A player who disagrees somewhat but not entirely, might place a small wager, as "support" for the big bettor.
In general it is a honorable relationship where the older man guides the younger, and is presumed to exist in Japan, where the senior man guides the junior.
https://twitter.com/Retronianne/status/1452322909775699971
You see something like this a lot at the Baccarat tables, where the big bettor places his bets first and then no one dares to bet against him, because it would be considered impolite and bad luck. At most, a player who disagrees might briefly place a stack of chips in the opposing circle to make clear his thoughts, and then remove them. A player who disagrees somewhat but not entirely, might place a small wager, as "support" for the big bettor.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:11:46 PM
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Recently after winning I left my table and went to some other section of the casino to sit at an empty table and count my chips. Just as I had finished doing that, this Italian looking and sounding guy approached me and flashed some absurdly bejeweled Rolex on his wrist and lamented that he had lost everything and didn't care and just wanted to sell it for $1000.
I glanced at his wrist, didn't want to engage so I just so, No. No thank you. He kept saying something, but I just tried to be polite and ignore him gently. I knew that if I started to ask to see it, or said that it's a fake (which it obviously was - a watch like that if real would be worth close to $100,000.) it would just propel me further into his scam script.
Then he switched gears and asked me where the pawn shops are. I just told him, Downtown. Where? Just - Downtown, go down Las Vegas Blvd. you'll find them.
He kept trying with a few more words, but finally realized that I wasn't biting, and took off. Obviously the line about the "pawn shop" was intended to get me thinking, Hmm, if he's willing to sell to them it Must be real.
I understand that there actually are people who do exactly what this guy does, hang around the tables, or even play at the tables, and then after losing (or pretending to lose) all their money, offer to sell some kind of fake watch or piece of jewelry to an unsuspecting person who is flush with cash.
A friend of mine actually fell for it once, bought a piece of jewelry or some such, later claimed that it was worth something although not as much as he had hoped - but I think that was a way of trying not to admit that had been scammed.
I glanced at his wrist, didn't want to engage so I just so, No. No thank you. He kept saying something, but I just tried to be polite and ignore him gently. I knew that if I started to ask to see it, or said that it's a fake (which it obviously was - a watch like that if real would be worth close to $100,000.) it would just propel me further into his scam script.
Then he switched gears and asked me where the pawn shops are. I just told him, Downtown. Where? Just - Downtown, go down Las Vegas Blvd. you'll find them.
He kept trying with a few more words, but finally realized that I wasn't biting, and took off. Obviously the line about the "pawn shop" was intended to get me thinking, Hmm, if he's willing to sell to them it Must be real.
I understand that there actually are people who do exactly what this guy does, hang around the tables, or even play at the tables, and then after losing (or pretending to lose) all their money, offer to sell some kind of fake watch or piece of jewelry to an unsuspecting person who is flush with cash.
A friend of mine actually fell for it once, bought a piece of jewelry or some such, later claimed that it was worth something although not as much as he had hoped - but I think that was a way of trying not to admit that had been scammed.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:27:49 PM
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Another time though, I was "Victory Strolling" around Fremont and ended up in front of a pawn shop. Some guy accosted me and offered to sell me some gold rings. I told him okay, let's go in there whatever the pawn shop offers I'll give you more.
We went in, the pawn shop owner checked the rings, offered some low sum, I told the owner no, we're not interested, I walked out and paid the guy twenty bucks more, and bought the rings. I still have them. Never actually got around to wearing them though, but they were in fact genuine solid gold with a few real diamonds, albeit low quality. The guy accepted something like sixty bucks for the lot.
Pawn shops don't pay anything other than a % of melt, they don't care about small precious stones, even diamonds, unless I suppose, if the diamonds are certified. I've never sold anything to a pawn shop, but I have bought some items from them - when they are Selling they do try to make a big deal of the precious stones but I always come back with a Come on man, you know you never paid a dime extra for those stones, and they just laugh and sometimes lower the asking price.
We went in, the pawn shop owner checked the rings, offered some low sum, I told the owner no, we're not interested, I walked out and paid the guy twenty bucks more, and bought the rings. I still have them. Never actually got around to wearing them though, but they were in fact genuine solid gold with a few real diamonds, albeit low quality. The guy accepted something like sixty bucks for the lot.
Pawn shops don't pay anything other than a % of melt, they don't care about small precious stones, even diamonds, unless I suppose, if the diamonds are certified. I've never sold anything to a pawn shop, but I have bought some items from them - when they are Selling they do try to make a big deal of the precious stones but I always come back with a Come on man, you know you never paid a dime extra for those stones, and they just laugh and sometimes lower the asking price.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:53:22 PM
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Quote: MDawgI understand that there actually are people who do exactly what this guy does, hang around the tables, or even play at the tables, and then after losing (or pretending to lose) all their money, offer to sell some kind of fake watch or piece of jewelry to an unsuspecting person who is flush with cash.
A friend of mine actually fell for it once, bought a piece of jewelry or some such, later claimed that it was worth something although not as much as he had hoped - but I think that was a way of trying not to admit that had been scammed.
link to original post
I've probably mentioned that I see it regularly in my travels.
People hanging around gas stations, trying to sell you the ring off their finger, or the watch off their wrist... supposedly needing gas money to get the car full of kids back home.
One problem is that when they tell me that they live out east, and I keep seeing the same car and seller as I travel west...
Nevermind that it's a $4 ring that they claim is worth $2000, but they can let go for $200.
I do appreciate the crews that put in the effort to gaff the gas gauge. The needle may be below E, and the light may be flashing, but the guy had no problem driving up to me, or leaving the engine running during his pitch.
May the cards fall in your favor.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:18:53 PM
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Yes that's the usual scam. I've been approached by people like that and actually offered to fill their gas cans they are carrying with them instead of handing them cash, and they've all gotten confused and said, No, that's okay and slunk off. Not one ever followed through to have me fill the can up.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:40:05 PM
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Similar to the guys who claim they want money to buy something to eat, and then when you offer to take them into a place and buy them something, they just mumble and wander off.
Or the ones with the "Will work for food" signs - I have read about people who have taken them in to work, and then after a while they start saying that they are going to have to receive some cash too. If it even gets that far and the bum is willing to leave his coveted intersection post for any length of time. Time after all, is money! and time away from the begging post is lost money.
Or the ones with the "Will work for food" signs - I have read about people who have taken them in to work, and then after a while they start saying that they are going to have to receive some cash too. If it even gets that far and the bum is willing to leave his coveted intersection post for any length of time. Time after all, is money! and time away from the begging post is lost money.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:10:37 PM
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We might be on the same page with this crap.Quote: MDawgYes that's the usual scam. I've been approached by people like that and actually offered to fill their gas cans they are carrying with them instead of handing them cash, and they've all gotten confused and said, No, that's okay and slunk off. Not one ever followed through to have me fill the can up.
link to original post
Most of those "I'm out of gas" scammers in Vegas are gypsies.
My wife fell for this one, ONE time. The scammers even used their younger child to pull off their con. She later seen the same people scaming an elderly person.
Now, she will never give anything to anyone asking for money or help, even is it's someone who might be legitimately be in need of assistance.
Unrelated to the scammers, she will voice her disapproval whenever I lend a a friend or relative money, given past history. It always ends with.." it's your money do what you want, but I don't like it, they wouldn't help you if you needed it"
Unlike me, You only get one chance with my wife. She has little or no forgiveness.
I remember she was furious that her friend never returned a
a few shirts of hers. 《《《 that's just batshit crazy to me.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:32:18 PM
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Don't ever cross her... Again $;o)Quote: AxelWolfUnlike me, You only get one chance with my wife. She has little or no forgiveness.
link to original post
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
October 2nd, 2022 at 8:54:21 PM
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Sometimes I'll hand one of those panhandlers on the cross LV Blvd or cross street bridges some money. Other times I feel determined to hand them none.
I have never given any money to the plumed Showgirls, although I will admit taking a glance at some of them.
I have never given any money to the plumed Showgirls, although I will admit taking a glance at some of them.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 2nd, 2022 at 8:54:41 PM
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Day 16 play.
Baccarat.
Maybe ten minute session. These are the ones where you wish you hadn’t just been fooling around on the way to dinner.
+4200
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
Baccarat.
Maybe ten minute session. These are the ones where you wish you hadn’t just been fooling around on the way to dinner.
+4200
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 3rd, 2022 at 4:34:26 AM
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Quote: MDawgDay 16 play.
Baccarat.
Maybe ten minute session. These are the ones where you wish you hadn’t just been fooling around on the way to dinner.
+4200
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post
I have, very rarely, had ‘a few minutes’ to play before needing to leave for dinner, a show, the airport, whatever…. I LOVE the feeling of a win in those situations…. I think a bit more than I bemoan the loss….
Do you ever think right after such a win ($4200), ‘holy cow, I just won in a few minutes what the guy dealing makes in a month!’
October 3rd, 2022 at 8:04:17 AM
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Quote: MDawg
P1 entered the final round with 21000.
P2 with 23000.
So if they both win with 6000, P1 will end with 27000, P2 with 29000. No need for P2 to bet less than P1.
link to original post
No, you're not understanding....or I'm not explaining correctly.
It's all about LOSING. If P2 bets 6000 and loses, he has 17,000. If he bets 4001 and loses, he has 18,999, which is obviously a lot more than 17,000. In either scenario, he STILL beats P1 if they BOTH win. The strategy is to bet just enough to beat the other player no matter what if you both win, and to minimize your losses if you lose.
October 3rd, 2022 at 9:36:07 AM
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Yes that's true. But....
In the actual scenario that unfolded where Player 1 got to double down and won, Player 1 ended with 33000.
Player 2 bet 6000 and also won, ended with 29000, so lost the tournament round did not make it to the semi finals.
---
In your scenario (Player 1 bets 6000, Player 2 bets 4001), given the actual results (dealer bust, both players got stiff hands to start), Player 2 still would have lost.
---
Let's say that Player 1 had gotten a blackjack, received 9000, ended with 30000.
In that case, Player 2 if won but no blackjack would still have lost, whether bet 6000 or 4001.
---
Another scenario say Player 1 had gotten the same double, and won, ended with 33000
Player 2, blackjack - well with 6000 wagered, then would have ended with 32000.
Player 2, blackjack - well with 4001 wagered, then would have ended with approx. 29000.
---
Another scenario, Player 1 wins with regular hand, gets to 27000.
Player 2 loses - if loses after betting 6000, will end with 17000, if loses after betting 4001 will end with 18999 - either case, Player 2 loses.
---
As far as Player 2 winning scenarios, if both lose, Player 2 wins whether bet 6000 or 4001, given Player 2's 2000 chip lead. If Player 2 wins and Player 1 loses, then also Player 2 wins.
So I can't imagine any scenario where it would have made any difference to bet 4001 versus 6000 for Player 2. Can you?
---
Over all the whole thing was just a crazy tournament series of events that allowed Player 1 to win.
Player 1 had to: be able to double down. Not bust. (Not have Player 2 also double down.) And then have the dealer bust. All four of those things had to happen for Player 1 to win, but in this case, they did!
Still, I think I ran down every scenario above and there would be no advantage (or disadvantage) to betting 4001 versus 6000.
In the actual scenario that unfolded where Player 1 got to double down and won, Player 1 ended with 33000.
Player 2 bet 6000 and also won, ended with 29000, so lost the tournament round did not make it to the semi finals.
---
In your scenario (Player 1 bets 6000, Player 2 bets 4001), given the actual results (dealer bust, both players got stiff hands to start), Player 2 still would have lost.
---
Let's say that Player 1 had gotten a blackjack, received 9000, ended with 30000.
In that case, Player 2 if won but no blackjack would still have lost, whether bet 6000 or 4001.
---
Another scenario say Player 1 had gotten the same double, and won, ended with 33000
Player 2, blackjack - well with 6000 wagered, then would have ended with 32000.
Player 2, blackjack - well with 4001 wagered, then would have ended with approx. 29000.
---
Another scenario, Player 1 wins with regular hand, gets to 27000.
Player 2 loses - if loses after betting 6000, will end with 17000, if loses after betting 4001 will end with 18999 - either case, Player 2 loses.
---
As far as Player 2 winning scenarios, if both lose, Player 2 wins whether bet 6000 or 4001, given Player 2's 2000 chip lead. If Player 2 wins and Player 1 loses, then also Player 2 wins.
So I can't imagine any scenario where it would have made any difference to bet 4001 versus 6000 for Player 2. Can you?
---
Over all the whole thing was just a crazy tournament series of events that allowed Player 1 to win.
Player 1 had to: be able to double down. Not bust. (Not have Player 2 also double down.) And then have the dealer bust. All four of those things had to happen for Player 1 to win, but in this case, they did!
Still, I think I ran down every scenario above and there would be no advantage (or disadvantage) to betting 4001 versus 6000.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 3rd, 2022 at 9:47:22 AM
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Quote: MDawg
So I can't imagine any scenario where it would have made any difference to bet 4001 versus 6000 for Player 2. Can you?
link to original post
I mean, I was kind of making a joke. That would be the betting strategy for playing Jeopardy. I don't know how it would work for a BJ tournament since I don't really play BJ.
October 3rd, 2022 at 9:53:16 AM
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Okay. 😁
Over all when watching I thought it was crazy that Player 1 was even thinking so much. Obviously Player 1 had to hit. But I was surprised that Player 1 doubled down, the question I suppose is, was that the right move for Player 1, or should Player 1 have just hit hoping to make an actual hand?
Advantage to double down was getting more money out there, disadvantage was only one hit card and not two chances to make a pat hand.
Obviously the double down was hoping for ANY non bust card, while if Player 1 had simply hit, and received that ace, could have then moved forward to try to hit again.
Over all when watching I thought it was crazy that Player 1 was even thinking so much. Obviously Player 1 had to hit. But I was surprised that Player 1 doubled down, the question I suppose is, was that the right move for Player 1, or should Player 1 have just hit hoping to make an actual hand?
Advantage to double down was getting more money out there, disadvantage was only one hit card and not two chances to make a pat hand.
Obviously the double down was hoping for ANY non bust card, while if Player 1 had simply hit, and received that ace, could have then moved forward to try to hit again.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 3rd, 2022 at 9:55:40 AM
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MDawg, I recommend you get Stanford Wong’s book on casino tournament strategy. There is good info on there that will help you think through bet sizing in different situations.
https://www.amazon.com/Casino-Tournament-Strategy-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926224
https://www.amazon.com/Casino-Tournament-Strategy-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926224
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
October 3rd, 2022 at 9:59:47 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: MDawgDay 16 play.
Baccarat.
Maybe ten minute session. These are the ones where you wish you hadn’t just been fooling around on the way to dinner.
+4200
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
link to original post
I have, very rarely, had ‘a few minutes’ to play before needing to leave for dinner, a show, the airport, whatever…. I LOVE the feeling of a win in those situations…. I think a bit more than I bemoan the loss….
Do you ever think right after such a win ($4200), ‘holy cow, I just won in a few minutes what the guy dealing makes in a month!’
link to original post
Well most casino players will say that dinner tastes great after a win, not so great after a loss. And in general it's not such a great idea to play when on a time constraint because it might push you to bet bigger than the cards call for to try to win fast, or come up from behind on a loss.
In this session I just sat down at a regular table. The pit boss asked me if I wanted to reserve it but I said no, I won't be here long (but I also added the "Famous last words" and smiled, as a joke.) I was betting pretty small 100 - 300 and actually lost something like 6 hands in a row? which defies the odds, but then I started betting yellow and won 5/6, then I cut the bet to about nothing, because I was already ahead over 3000 and wanted to leave, and started putting a quarter down for the dealer on the left because wanted the dealer to get something too, and the Bank run I was on kept going 9 times total.
Of course those are the times when you think, wow, that could've been a hundred grand win, but no way I was going to bet that crazily on a "Way to Dinner" session.
That's the thing about Baccarat in general. Any advantage notwithstanding, sometimes betting small you'll win most of your hands, and sometimes betting big you'll lose most.
Again, not scientific, but watching other high rollers, I sometimes see them placing relatively small bets and drawing natural after natural just killing it, and then other times getting the craziest most unlikely draws hitting themselves down to a losing 0 again and again and playing stacks and stacks of yellow chips at a time.
My favorite sessions are ones where I have table or special limits out there and the other side hits itself to 0. At that point you're drawing with at worst a tie outcome. When I am in those positions I usually start laughing and telling the pit boss that I'll take 90% of my bet (I mention the actual figure, whatever that might be, say, $19000. or $27000. or whatever) to not look, but most of them don't get it.
"I tried to make a deal! you wouldn't go for it." I say after I've won.
(Rarely though, you will draw that card that gives, you too, a zero, and then of course you're silent, unless you had the tie bet covered for that hand.)
I suppose the equivalent in Blackjack would be you have some massive bet out there, and hit to 21. You could try to negotiate 90% of your bet without having the dealer check cards. Of course it is all a joke, no casino may take the deal, and you wouldn't want to do it, give up 10% of your money just on the off chance of a push, but it's still fun to clown around with the house in such "cannot lose" situations.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 3rd, 2022 at 6:22:13 PM
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Day 17 play.
Baccarat.
No heavy duty play, largest bet was 2500. Played a few shoes.
+9300
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
Baccarat.
No heavy duty play, largest bet was 2500. Played a few shoes.
+9300
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 4th, 2022 at 9:50:15 AM
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Current Vegas weather remains warmer than usual for October.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 5th, 2022 at 10:21:07 AM
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Day 18 play.
Baccarat.
Heavy duty action! to the limit at times. More than a few advantage hands almost all of them winners.
+110000
Any questions?
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I wouldn't mind picking up an extra $9500., from the little guy who didn't dare show his face for the $226,000. MDawg Challenge earlier this year, so let's do this thing, now! for this Day 18 play's win.
Baccarat.
Heavy duty action! to the limit at times. More than a few advantage hands almost all of them winners.
+110000
Any questions?
Note: Lately, for security reasons, session reports are not necessarily presented in real time corresponding directly to the day played.
And this is the MDawg challenge.
I wouldn't mind picking up an extra $9500., from the little guy who didn't dare show his face for the $226,000. MDawg Challenge earlier this year, so let's do this thing, now! for this Day 18 play's win.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 5th, 2022 at 10:41:53 AM
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Quote: MDawgDay 18 play.
Baccarat.
Heavy duty action! to the limit at times. More than a few advantage hands almost all of them winners.
+110000
Any questions?
link to original post
How many shoes was this?
October 5th, 2022 at 10:44:51 AM
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No one can hang anything on you for carrying U.S. currency.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 5th, 2022 at 10:48:58 AM
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Do you know, in my country, I'm a magico.
A man with a dream.
A man on the rise.
To take nothing and make it something.
A man with a dream.
A man on the rise.
To take nothing and make it something.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
October 5th, 2022 at 10:49:41 AM
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What is your total profit for the year playing baccarat? What do you estimate your player edge (if any) is against the house?
To the extent that you are overcoming the house edge and generating +EV, are you doing so mainly through comps, rebates, bonuses, etc. or through your actual play at the table?
To the extent that you are overcoming the house edge and generating +EV, are you doing so mainly through comps, rebates, bonuses, etc. or through your actual play at the table?
