Thread Rating:

Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14583
September 15th, 2021 at 6:42:38 AM permalink
Greetings!

Here's my most recent article on Betting Systems:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/betting-systems-and-alcoholism/

Wherein I make a direct comparison between a belief in Gambling Systems and Alcoholism.

I tend to think that there are some parallels to be drawn between the two things as both involve denials and justifications with the conscious or subconscious intent of trying to justify a continued behavior. For the alcoholic, continuing to drink; and for the betting systems believer, continuing to gamble.

Give it a read and let me know what you think!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 191
  • Posts: 11618
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 15th, 2021 at 6:58:14 AM permalink
My Grandma used to say that a man who lies while drinking drinks with friends, but a man who lies about drinking drinks alone.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 184
  • Posts: 3861
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 15th, 2021 at 8:42:16 AM permalink
_________


IMHO a gambling addiction is more like a porn addiction or being a shopaholic than it is to alcoholism

with alcoholism something is going into your bloodstream

with gambling or porn or shopping it's all in your mind - nothing went into your bloodstream

it's all in your mind


.


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 3080
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 15th, 2021 at 9:09:38 AM permalink
All addiction diseases involve a malady of the spirit, or whatever you want to call it - the disease based model to addiction is the one that has been accepted for a long time now - meaning, that any addict has a bad head, there is something organically different to his brain whether due to genetics or environment or both that may not be fixed by simply sitting down for a while and thinking about what is wrong and fixing it himself. Hence the dry drunk is still an alcoholic and spiritually deficient even after not drinking for a while.


From the Alcoholics Anonymous big book:

The idea that somehow, someday he will control and enjoy his drinking is the great obsession of every abnormal drinker. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. Many pursue it into the gates of insanity or death. We learned that we had to fully concede to our innermost selves that we were alcoholics.

Here are some of the methods we have tried: Drinking beer only, limiting the number of drinks, never drinking alone, never drinking in the morning, drinking only at home, never having it in the house, never drinking during business hours, drinking only at parties, switching from scotch to brandy, drinking only natural wines, agreeing to resign if ever drunk on the job, taking a trip, not taking a trip, swearing off forever (with and without a solemn oath), taking more physical exercise, reading inspirational books, going to health farms and sanitariums, accepting voluntary commitment to asylums - we could increase the list ad infinitum.

Half measures availed us nothing. We stood at the turning point. We asked His protection and care with complete abandon.


The similarity between any addiction is the belief that the addiction may be controlled. If you are presenting "betting systems" as equivalent to the alcoholic's trying to limit his drinks, never drinking alone, never drinking in the morning, switching from scotch to brandy, etc. etc., in other words, saying that betting systems are like trying different approaches to gambling hoping to avoid the inevitable loss, then that is one thing, but in general, the end result of addiction is acting on the addiction until severe repercussions result. In other words, acting on the addiction for too long - unable to control it.

I am sure that any gambler approaches the tables hoping to win and probably assumes or at least hopes that he will have more positive results this time around compared to a prior losing session, but I don't think that the adverse consequences that a gambling addict experiences have necessarily to do with trying a betting system - they have to do with not being able to stop playing until all the chips are gone, and not being able to avoid going into the casino too frequently.

For example - I've been in Vegas for six months now, living in casinos. I could go downstairs and play anytime. I have close to unlimited funds available to me relative to even my very high credit lines, and could get blown out at every casino at which I have a line, times about ten and not even have it disrupt our lifestyle, and yet, lately I barely play a few hours a week. And when I do play sometimes I play less than an hour, get ahead, and then just leave. I have not run around town trying to play at every casino at which I have a line.

On the other hand, I know of someone who spent an extended time in Vegas and ended up losing every penny could get his hands on - wiped out. And I know of someone else who spent a very short time in Vegas and lost everything could get hands on too. Those sorts of actions show inability to stop in the wake of adverse consequences, which is the definition and nature of addiction. These gambling addicts didn't lose big because they believed in a betting system, they lost because they couldn't pull away from the tables until to the felt.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Wellbush
Wellbush
Joined: Mar 23, 2021
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 583
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 15th, 2021 at 9:32:03 AM permalink
"There is simply no way to subtract a series of negative numbers from one another such that the result will be a positive number. To deny this would be to deny reality, much like so many alcoholics deny that they are alcoholics."

True, but how does that apply to negative progression? E.g. 1. $5 Lose (Total -$5), 2. 8 L (-$13), 3. 13 L (-26), 4. 21 W (-5) 5. 8 W (3).

The above fibonacci sequence (negative progression) resulted in a positive number (profit).

"If a betting system was sufficient to beat a game, then it would have been discovered, exploited and the applicable bet or game would no longer be offered in casinos."

Possibly...but a betting system to beat 'the edge' may not have been discovered yet.

"The Table Maximum on a particular game, generally speaking, reflects the most that the casino is comfortable losing on a given hand, which by extension, reflects the maximum that they are comfortable possibly losing within a finite amount of time."

I would say that this is not the only reason, but that the minimum and maximums are also to limit the profits made from progressive strategies.

"Betting system believers simply want to will the nature of negative expectation gambling to be something else by virtue of the fact that they believe it should be a different way."

For addicted gambling believers this may be so, but not for those not addicted who are trialing systems.

"If betting systems had a long-term expectation of profit, then you wouldn’t be able to just do that anytime you want."

Not so. If you knew your betting system well, and it worked, there would be nothing stopping you from using it anytime.
Last edited by: Wellbush on Sep 15, 2021
Only gamble 'a little' for fun, or, if 'you know' you can win.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14583
September 15th, 2021 at 9:35:21 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_________


IMHO a gambling addiction is more like a porn addiction or being a shopaholic than it is to alcoholism

with alcoholism something is going into your bloodstream

with gambling or porn or shopping it's all in your mind - nothing went into your bloodstream

it's all in your mind
.

.

  • link to original post



    That's a very good point when it comes to introducing something that, by design, changes the body chemistry.

    However, don't forget that these other forms of addiction also change body chemistry. The sense of euphoria or excitement, whether it be caused by shopping or gambling, comes from the release of dopamine by the brain and how it is received by the body, which can be influenced by one's receptor genes:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK538242/

    While this gene has been linked also to substance abuse, studies have indicated that it can also play a role in gambling, and other (non direct substance) addictions.

    For some people, there seems to be a link to the D2A1 allele when it comes to both gambling addiction and substance abuse. In this study:

    https://journals.lww.com/jpharmacogenetics/Abstract/1996/06000/A_study_of_the_dopamine_D2_receptor_gene_in.4.aspx

    It was found that over 50% of two different subsets of pathological gamblers carried this D2A1 allele, compared to only 17.8% in a control group of non pathological gamblers wherein gambling didn't move the needle whatsoever for 45 of 48 of the participants in the control group.

    It has also been found that addicts with this particular allele are more likely:

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8033754/

    If they are substance abusers at all, to be abusers of more than one substance. Participants in this second study with the D2A1 alleles also experienced higher percentages of addiction, though not necessarily always statistically meaningful, overall.

    This particular allele is, to a statistically meaningful degree, associated with even more problematic, "Stronger," addictions compared to less severe addictions, which you can read about in this study:

    https://books.google.com/books?id=KZAvvrofyrIC&pg=PA247&lpg=PA247&dq=D2A1+allele&source=bl&ots=BUhdNPp1iX&sig=ACfU3U10z22mC2L0UNfCfGnOPbUkWTD46w&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi7z6bxr4HzAhWfFFkFHcMnCdcQ6AF6BAgUEAM#v=onepage&q=D2A1%20allele&f=false

    Pathological gambling is thought of as one of the, "Pure," addictions as it doesn't rely on the introduction of outside drugs.

    Another interesting study is this one:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3758772/

    Anyway, what happens with this Taq1 allele is that it impacts D2 receptors (reward center) at baseline, whereas taking part in whatever the addictive activity is tends to free up the receptors. This particular allele has also been linked with depression (as has substance abuse), obviously, for the same reasons.

    Essentially, what ends up happening is that the reward center of the brain is unlocked and the dopamine receptors are working at a higher level than this person's baseline. What they are getting from it is the sort of reward level that others may get from non-addictive activities which, for people with this particular allele, basically might not even move the needle at all.

    So, it's definitely in the mind, and sometimes deeper. Apparently, it's sometimes within the genes!
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
    • Threads: 132
    • Posts: 14583
    Thanks for this post from:
    MDawg
    September 15th, 2021 at 9:37:46 AM permalink
    Great post by MDawg! I'm going to respond to that sometime today if I am coherent, but it might have to wait until tomorrow.

    I have a dentist appointment in a little over an hour and I'm not sure if they are going to end up drugging me or not. I certainly hope not! Anyway, that's why I don't know if I am going to be clearheaded later or not.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
    • Threads: 132
    • Posts: 14583
    Thanks for this post from:
    WellbushMichaelBluejay
    September 15th, 2021 at 9:39:54 AM permalink
    Quote: Wellbush

    "There is simply no way to subtract a series of negative numbers from one another such that the result will be a positive number. To deny this would be to deny reality, much like so many alcoholics deny that they are alcoholics."

    True, but how does that apply to negative progression? E.g. 1. $5 Lose (Total -$5), 2. 8 L (-$13), 3. 13 L (-26), 4. 21 W (-5) 5. 8 W (3).

    The above fibonacci sequence (negative progression) resulted in a positive number (profit).

    "If a betting system was sufficient to beat a game, then it would have been discovered, exploited and the applicable bet or game would no longer be offered in casinos."

    Possibly...but a betting system to beat 'the edge' may not have been discovered yet.

  • link to original post



    It applies to the expected value of individual bets on a negative expectation game. That's what I am referring to when I refer to their hope of putting negative numbers together hoping for it to somehow result in a positive one.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Wellbush
    Wellbush
    Joined: Mar 23, 2021
    • Threads: 7
    • Posts: 583
    Thanks for this post from:
    Mission146
    September 15th, 2021 at 10:11:39 AM permalink
    "People who wish to employ betting systems (absent anything else) don’t truly believe that the mere act of betting a certain way is going to result in an expectation of profit. They can’t possibly believe such a thing, because such a catastrophic failure of basic logic should be impossible."

    Oh yes some do believe their betting system will give them an expectation of profit. Otherwise they wouldn't go to the casino to trial it.

    "People who employ betting systems DO NOT WANT TO WIN. It’s that simple. THEY WANT TO PLAY. That’s all they want to do. They want to gamble. They want to pretend that they believe that the system makes an actual difference in the expectation."

    Not so. This statement only applies to addicted gamblers.

    "By arguing with people about it, you’re just engaging in denial, anger and bargaining simultaneously."

    Not if you're trialing a system.

    "2.) That they are, “About even,” lifetime, but want to win.

    Ouch! That’s not ideal, because this person hasn’t even gotten past the denial stage yet."

    Agreed. At a certain point I will pull the plug if I've exhausted the mathematical possibilities. If anyone cannot come to grips that they haven't got a winning system, after enough trials, then yes they are addicted.

    “Normal existence,” is the default. Believing that Betting Systems will work is not, “Normal existence.” If you are not in normal existence, then you are in one of the stages that is neither, “Normal Existence,” nor, “Acceptance.”

    Incorrect. There would be countless people who would initially go to a casino wishing to trial a system. It's after repeatedly losing that things start to become abnormal.
    Last edited by: Wellbush on Sep 15, 2021
    Only gamble 'a little' for fun, or, if 'you know' you can win.
    billryan
    billryan
    Joined: Nov 2, 2009
    • Threads: 191
    • Posts: 11618
    Thanks for this post from:
    Mission146
    September 15th, 2021 at 10:17:00 AM permalink
    Some people believe the moon is made of cheese. I find that as long as they aren't doing harm to themselves or me and mine, it is best to leave them to their beliefs.

    • Jump to: