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ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
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July 25th, 2021 at 7:07:53 PM permalink
Making this post to talk about Michael Bluejay's idea of doubling up a $5 bet to $1 million by YOLOing all your winnings for 18 hands or spins in a row. I messaged Wizard about this and he was ok with this thread. Although if this is in the wrong forum, mods please move it to appropriate forum. I placed it in here because I think it's topical and I wanted as much exposure to the very respected advantage players that post here, and Michael Bluejay himself. I want to know your opinion on this mathematical feat.

So the backstory on this is that the last time I was at Harrahs in Cherokee NC, I walked by a low limit baccarat table where I saw the most incredible streak I've seen in person so far. 19 Player wins in a row. It was the end of the shoe so I wasn't able to exploit it, but we know mathematically how crazy of a streak that was. Upon getting back home and doing some research, I came across Michael's website that shows the math behind such a streak. Turns out if I had be extremely ballsy and lucky, this pocket of ev+ variance would have made me a millionaire(well... minus table limits...)

I have a honeymoon planned for a few months from now so having talked it over with my soon to wedded be, we have decided to try this challenge and see if we can get 15+ streak in either craps, baccarat, or roulette. Bankroll is $1000, and we're doing either 100 $10 buy-ins, 50 $20 buy-ins, or 200 $5 buy-ins depending on our mood. The idea behind having so many buy-ins for this challenge is that our chances of spiking a large streak are more likely to happen, just from the variance of running this experiment so many times over 4 days we're at Harrahs. One major thing I plan on doing is not gambling this entire amount at the same time. So breaking the 'streak' up in physical play time. Say YOLOing up to the 8 streak part, walking away for some low limit table or UTH, and then coming back to continue later in the day or next day.

So my question to all of you pros and very smart amateurs is... what do you think I should play to maximize the best odds? Does anyone think I'll be able to hit the 13+ streak part and walk away with over $40,000 from getting cold feet to continue the streak? Is this the silliest idea on the web? What do people think of the concept behind $5 to a millionaire?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Jul 26, 2021
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ChallengedMilly
July 25th, 2021 at 7:11:34 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Making this post to talk about Michael Bluejay's $5 to $1,000,000 challenge via YOLOing all your winnings for 18 hands or spins in a row.


First post! Really?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
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July 25th, 2021 at 7:17:51 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

First post! Really?

Haha hey DeMango! Sorry about that I lost a giant post so I was retyping everything up, please bare with me for a minute or two and I'd love to hear your ideas about this challenge. I'm a *very* long time lurker(for the past year and half) but finally decided to delurk when I learned that I would be honeymooning at a casino, and that we had the funds to have a nice long gamble session.

So far I've won $1300 playing table UTH following Wizard's advanced strategy which I practiced a bunch a head of time. Then last time I hit a royal flush playing quarters following proper JoB strategy thanks to Wizard's math and play skills.

Since this is easily the best math-based gambling forum on the planet, I'd love to hear the feedback from the pro AP players and just generally from everyone on the feasibility of this idea. Obviously I'm going to have to pray for and hit a a positive variance pocket to streak 13+ times in a row. I also need the financial guts to keep betting it all when I have more than a year's salary for myself and my soon to be wife in front of me in purple and black chips. Easy to say it, hard to pull that trigger.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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July 25th, 2021 at 7:44:07 PM permalink
Well 18 yo's in a row only happened once, so good luck with that!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
darkoz
darkoz
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July 25th, 2021 at 7:56:26 PM permalink
Most likely scenario.

You will lose your money never hitting the streak HOWEVER more frustrating will.be when you glance over at the table across the room and see a streak of 18 reds in a row.

If only you had played at that table you would be a millionaire.

And then you will be going home broke and psychologically scarred as to how a simple choice of seating ruined all your plans.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
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July 25th, 2021 at 8:04:19 PM permalink
Well what would you do in my position darkoz? Is there a better mathematical way to pull this off or something similar?
darkoz
darkoz
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July 25th, 2021 at 8:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Well what would you do in my position darkoz? Is there a better mathematical way to pull this off or something similar?



It's just gambling. You aren't using an edge. Just hoping you get lucky and catch a streak.

Be prepared to lose the $1000 and hope for the best
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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July 25th, 2021 at 9:18:16 PM permalink
In my lifetime the best run I ever experienced was side by side Player runs of over twenty each, with just one intervening Bank hand. Wizard and I talked about that shoe. I had a certain goal that trip of a quarter million, and I hit that run for what was the table limit at that time per hand after the first two Players, but let off on the gas to a ridiculous approximately just some hundreds per a hand until it ended. I did walk with well over a quarter million but often think about how if only I hadnít eased offÖ. You see that particular trip I had declared to anyone who would listen that I was going to get over a quarter million, and that number was so ingrained in my mind that once I surpassed it, I didnít care and reverted to playing very small.

So, that just goes to show that even in a situation where presented with a run that could have cleared well over a half million in that run alone, I didnít take all that the run presented.

You talk about runs of 15. Iíve been continuously in Vegas now for over four months, and played about 90 sessions. That isnít a whole lot of sessions, but Iíve experienced at least a few Bank or Player runs of 15-16, many of 11-13, and many many of around 9. I have had numerous sessions where I have won six figures, but the interesting thing is, that while yes, most of them had runs in them, not all of them did. In other words, sometimes runs lead to big winnings and sometimes they donít.

I mean Ė let me be clear Ė runs do not lead to LOSING, at least never with me. But neither do they lead always to massive wins.

I am a guy who Ė give me any kind of run of more than 5 and I will always benefit, but given that I press into runs and donít suddenly jump the bet, if I start a run with only a few hundred dollars then even if it is say, 10 long, Iím not going to make a mint on it.

But, sometimes, I will start a run with a few thousand, and then, pressing just a thousand a hand, yes, Iíll make good money.

I have pretty much realized that unless I enter a shoe with a do or die attitude AND experience a run, that I am not going to empty the rack, and for all intensive purposes, that sort of combination rarely happens. Put it this way, youíd have to dump a lot of table limit bets before you finally cleared that half million, if your entire strategy were based on waiting for a 13 Bank or Player run.
Last edited by: MDawg on Jul 25, 2021
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
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July 25th, 2021 at 9:28:21 PM permalink
Thank you for your input MDawg. As one of the more entertaining people that post here, I do appreciate your knowledge and perspective on this challenge. Have you ever talked about the specifics of how you tend to push for mini streaks? From your reports it sounds like you kind of wait out a lot of hands until a shoe gets low and use that information to try and guess how the end of a shoe will run? I know Wizard's under your little NDA thing, but have you ever thought about talking more about how you figure out these things?

Also yeah I plan on coloring up a bunch and moving to the high limit baccarat or roulette/craps tables at Harrahs Cherokee. It's going to feel really weird to do, but I'm trying to psyche myself up for the experience of it. I'm also contemplating throwing some of these potential winnings at their electronic UTH machine. That thing seems really exploitable last time I was there(won $560 off of $25 bet after 2 hours of play, extremely good Rate of Return.) Progressive for it is up to $50,000, which would be enough for a down payment on a house we've been looking at. Life changing money(and yes I know to pay the taxes on it.)
MDawg
MDawg
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July 25th, 2021 at 9:39:39 PM permalink
Probably specifics of when I've pressed into a streak should be reserved for discussion in my Adventures thread.
Here was the actual Wizard witnessed session, so you may quote it in that thread if you like:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/471/#post803691

And here was the Session verification:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/472/#post803695

In that session there was an 8 Player run and I hit every single hand of it. Not some, not most, all.

But in general I'm just saying that waiting for streaks is one thing, but hoping further that you'll hit the streak for table max or anywhere close, is mostly just a pipe dream. If I hit a streak starting with yellow chips and it goes on from there for a while, I am pretty happy. The few times I've hit a streak for table max I've rarely if ever kept it up for the entire streak.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

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