AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 27th, 2020 at 6:26:07 AM permalink
Does anyone have any experience with this? Apparently, it's all the new rage and big business.

They are running simulated NFL games on the Madden 20 video game that you can bet on at many of the popular online Sports books, such as BetOnline. I guess they stream the games live as well.

I know little to nothing about it, but there's some money to be made using deposit bonuses(you can PM me and I'll let you know what location I found so far)


I have not yet made a bet since I had some questions first.
How are they setting the lines? Do they just run a bunch of simulations and come up with the number? Do they have to adjust the line to get equal action on both sides? Does a line constantly move? Do any of the Sportsbooks have in-game betting? Can someone manipulate the lines? Can you just run a bunch of simulations yourself using the Madden program to help determine if they actually set the line correctly? If someone had to access to Madden 20 programming code/ software/ algorithm/AI or whatever it's called would it then be possible to crush the online Sports books? Or is that not even possible? If nothing else, it's fascinating for sure.

Is this something you would consider doing for profit or even just entertainment?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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April 27th, 2020 at 9:12:18 AM permalink
In the UK bookmakers have run virtual races (all sorts incl greyhounds, flat races, jumps, F1) so punters can make bets every few minutes in the shops. This year, with no real race meetings, there was a virtual Grand National shown on TV when the real one was due to be run. It used the same idea, algorithms etc., but had fixed odds with profits going to the NHS - that's why the odds are so bad!
(Don't google it unless you want to see who won it, I've posted a link to a YouTube video of the race for those interested.)
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2020-04-04/virtual-grand-national/racecard/569810/virtual-grand-national
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vtzXAt9M0c
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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April 27th, 2020 at 10:38:14 AM permalink
I have heard everything from that to simulated camel races in the Arab world.

In the end it is just playing a glorified slot machine, something artificial determining the outcome. I say stay away.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Gialmere
Gialmere
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April 27th, 2020 at 10:44:58 AM permalink
I dunno. It's more like Sigma Derby but with some actual stats to consider.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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April 27th, 2020 at 10:50:32 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

In the UK bookmakers have run virtual races (all sorts incl greyhounds, flat races, jumps, F1) so punters can make bets every few minutes in the shops. This year, with no real race meetings, there was a virtual Grand National shown on TV when the real one was due to be run. It used the same idea, algorithms etc., but had fixed odds with profits going to the NHS - that's why the odds are so bad!
(Don't google it unless you want to see who won it, I've posted a link to a YouTube video of the race for those interested.)
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2020-04-04/virtual-grand-national/racecard/569810/virtual-grand-national
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vtzXAt9M0c




the ADW's in the U.S. have started this and according to one of their reps it is doing well
this from the rep in the link:

"The only statistic currently is how often they've placed in their last 6 races prior to the selected one with a star system."

that is terrible and even worse this:

"takeout is 22%".

which on win, place, show bets is much higher than real tracks that have major operations and purses to pay

and finally this which is even worse yet:

"So far I've been surprised by the handle on it over and over. The virtual products are handling more than some of the current US tracks."


.......................this was posted on 4/13 and was considering before the shutdown of a high % of the real tracks



one poster responded with this comment:

"Are the ADWs trying to determine if there really is a "sucker born every minute"?"

another poster said this:

"Sorry, but in my opinion, if you are going to play these types of races, you're just one step away from playing slot machines (which have a better payout per play)."






I don't believe hardcore veteran horseplayers can be suckerized by this stuff - they are people who are in the game at least partially because they love to intently evaluate reams of info in search of an edge

I would have to surmise its appealing to those who are new to betting racing and those who are addicted and just want to bet not caring if they have a good bet or not

it's a pretty sad thing IMHO


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=157206&highlight=virtual+horse+races&page=2
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 27, 2020
𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘮 - 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮.........Edgar Allan Poe
redietz
redietz
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April 27th, 2020 at 11:39:24 AM permalink
I would avoid it -- unless it's free.

The only way the playing field for this works is if there is absolutely zero, as in none, leakage of the algorithms and statistical priorities used in the sims. If anyone, friends, family members of the companies running the sims, has access, you are running uphill.

This reminds me of the old FanDuel and Draftkings problems where the people working for them had inside info on how many people were taking what players. They were forbidden from betting for the company in which they worked, so they just swapped out with Draftkings employees dominating Fanduel and vice versa. The NY Times did a nice expose.

In this case, you can't even tell who is forbidden from insider trading knowledge and who isn't.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
TomG
TomG
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April 27th, 2020 at 3:48:42 PM permalink
If the bonuses are worth it, just bet both sides. If betting both sides still doesn't let you win money, the bonuses aren't good enough. If the sportsbook was reputable before offering these, the games are almost certainly fair. Whomever is simulating the games can adjust settings however they want, so finding advantages are not going to be straightforward as simulating the games yourself on the same engine.

Why not just bet esports? Can find advantages on those and they are now available in Nevada.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 27th, 2020 at 4:37:10 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

If the bonuses are worth it, just bet both sides. If betting both sides still doesn't let you win money, the bonuses aren't good enough. If the sportsbook was reputable before offering these, the games are almost certainly fair. Whomever is simulating the games can adjust settings however they want, so finding advantages are not going to be straightforward as simulating the games yourself on the same engine.

Why not just bet esports? Can find advantages on those and they are now available in Nevada.

It’s understandable to have some concerns about the validity of simulation sports given that they’re run by the sportsbooks, but bettors can put their collective minds at ease by knowing that what happens in the game is completely out of the control of the person conducting the stream.

Settings-wise, football sims are set to 15-minute quarters on All-Madden mode – the hardest mode in Madden 20. The rosters are updated to reflect what lineups looked like at the end of the 2019 NFL season; for instance, Tom Brady is still on the New England Patriots instead of his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the NBA2K20 streams, the difficulty level is set to Hall of Fame mode.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 27th, 2020 at 4:49:47 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

If the bonuses are worth it, just bet both sides. If betting both sides still doesn't let you win money, the bonuses aren't good enough. If the sportsbook was reputable before offering these, the games are almost certainly fair. Whomever is simulating the games can adjust settings however they want, so finding advantages are not going to be straightforward as simulating the games yourself on the same engine.

Why not just bet esports? Can find advantages on those and they are now available in Nevada.

I have seen a few bonuses where betting on both sides would gain you an advantage. Add in the refer a friend aspect and that would even add more. If you were to bet both sides they would certainly notice what you were up to. I would want to avoid that. I highly doubt they're going to let you bet both sides on your own account.

Without the refer-a-friend. Assuming a 10% Vig, with the bonus.... a $100 deposit would equal a $75 value(that's not even factoring in losing before you have to finish the wagering requirements). I'm not sure what the max deposit is, as of yet.

There's no reason someone couldn't do both Esports and this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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