The Adventures of MDawg

Quote: MDawg

Well Coach referred to a "mathematical" edge so I responded in a neutral fashion, referring to what remains. There are some Baccarat games where the banker's commission is lower than 5% though.

Player's edge, loss rebates, etc. - correct yes, these change the odds.

The edge, whether to the house or player, is based on what you bet, how much you can win, and the probability of winning or losing. The amount you get paid back based on your bet is set. The probability of winning or losing is not. For example:

Quote: MDawg

two have massive bank or player streaks in them, the rest do not. Any decent Baccarat player who runs into those two shoes will clean up.

Quote: MDawg

I assume the questions are for me? not for qualified?

Yes, the questions were for you.

Considering context, "qualified" implied that you are a professional baccarat player who had a mathematical edge.

I was just trying to clear up his misconception.

Quote: qualified

If you really a professional baccarat player, then congratulations...one could make tons of money even with a very small edge on table games.

Quote: TomG

Any game where the player wins money through a repeatable and evidence-based strategy, like you have described with baccarat, has a players edge, not a house edge.

Does MDawg have a mathematical edge in baccarat?

Quote: coachbelly

Does MDawg have a mathematical edge in baccarat?

LOL. I've missed MDawg's claims and Coachbelly's posts about him.

Quote: OnceDear

I've missed MDawg's claims and Coachbelly's posts about him.

Can you get us a paid gig with limited mod capabilities?

Thoughts while at the gym (some people just listen to music while exercising - I think)...if there's no advantage to varying your bet, stopping while ahead or money management, does that mean then that betting every hand as much as you have in front of you to the limit and not ever stopping until you've lost everything, also does not affect the outcome?

Quote: MDawg

Thoughts while at the gym (some people just listen to music while exercising - I think)...if there's no advantage to varying your bet, stopping while ahead or money management, does that mean then that betting every hand as much as you have in front of you to the limit and not ever stopping until you've lost everything, also does not affect the outcome?

There are huge advantages at table games to varying bet sizes as probabilities change.

Quote: TomG

There are huge advantages at table games to varying bet sizes as probabilities change.

Philosophically, I'm thinking some folks are missing the gist of this. We are down the rabbit hole.

Many things affect the outcome of MDawg playing baccarat. For example, consider if MDawg is carrying a .44 magnum, the most powerful handgun on earth, which can blow your head clean off. Say he points it at the baccarat dealer and says, "I'm winning the next bet. Do you feel lucky today?" I don't even have to look at any cards, and I would be willing to wager that MDawg wins the next bet.

Now as to the consequences of winning that next bet, well, that would be up to casino security, God, and MDawg's private security force. But for the sake of argument, I could make a strong case that pointing the .44 magnum changes the probabilities. And if I were MDawg, that would be the hand I vary my bet size.

It now looks like Palms Vegas may not be reopening at all! at least not under Station Casinos ownership.
Station Casinos resorts may not reopen four properties in Las Vegas
https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/08/04/station-casinos-may-not-reopen-four-properties-las-vegas/3295540001/

I found this old valet ticket, from our last trip there in March 2020, tucked into a crevice in my vehicle yesterday.

Quote: redietz

Philosophically, I'm thinking some folks are missing the gist of this. We are down the rabbit hole.

Many things affect the outcome of MDawg playing baccarat. For example, consider if MDawg is carrying a .44 magnum, the most powerful handgun on earth, which can blow your head clean off. Say he points it at the baccarat dealer and says, "I'm winning the next bet. Do you feel lucky today?" I don't even have to look at any cards, and I would be willing to wager that MDawg wins the next bet.

Now as to the consequences of winning that next bet, well, that would be up to casino security, God, and MDawg's private security force. But for the sake of argument, I could make a strong case that pointing the .44 magnum changes the probabilities. And if I were MDawg, that would be the hand I vary my bet size.

Dealer outwits everyone and plays faint. Drops to the floor and no cards can be dealt. Undercover agent happens to be having a drink at the bar behind them and shoots the kicks the gun out of MDawgs hand.

Ace2 , what do you want to know? Ask me anything in my thread here. Given DarkOz's example though, we're not allowed to discuss How To Beat The Casinos.

Is it now a craps shoot as to whether one will catch coronavirus, simply by going to Vegas?

New data shows jump in COVID cases for visitors to Nevada
https://www.reviewjournal.com/investigations/new-data-shows-jump-in-covid-cases-for-visitors-to-nevada-2090577/

Quote: MDawg

Is it now a craps shoot as to whether one will catch coronavirus, simply by going to Vegas?

New data shows jump in COVID cases for visitors to Nevada
https://www.reviewjournal.com/investigations/new-data-shows-jump-in-covid-cases-for-visitors-to-nevada-2090577/

Can we quit posting links that cost us money to read? Not subscribing to jack shit.

If you clear all cookies related to the newspaper, I believe the clock refreshes and you will get free articles anew!

Quote: MDawg

Ace2 , what do you want to know? Ask me anything in my thread here. Given DarkOz's example though, we're not allowed to discuss How To Beat The Casinos.

You got that right! Do not talk about 'hit n run' ! Casinos no like that!!

Quote: MDawg

Is it now a craps shoot as to whether one will catch coronavirus, simply by going to Vegas?

New data shows jump in COVID cases for visitors to Nevada
https://www.reviewjournal.com/investigations/new-data-shows-jump-in-covid-cases-for-visitors-to-nevada-2090577/

I'm pretty darn sure the good majority of Americans either had it at some point and didn't know it or have it now and either know or don't know it. Sniffles..

You'd have to really be out of touch with your body and health to get coronavirus and not know it.

Even those who are coronavirus "symptomless" are only asymptomatic for a period of time, such as during the early period after catching it. Anyone who is in perfect health and active would feel at a minimum an unwelcome fatigue.

I suppose if you were a junkie or alcoholic and never sober and had cirrhosis of the liver you might not know it until the day you died too.

Quote: MDawg

You'd have to really be out of touch with your body and health to get coronavirus and not know it.

Even those who are coronavirus "symptomless" are only asymptomatic for a period of time, such as during the early period after catching it. Anyone who is in perfect health and active would feel at a minimum an unwelcome fatigue.

This is just not true. Now that they are testing athletes frequently, there are a bunch that are positive and they are saying they felt absolutely nothing. Nada. Zilch. They denied any 'unwelcome fatigue'. NO SYMPTOMS.

First off, in order to be considered in this "subset" one must have tested positive for coronavirus to begin with. Otherwise, who knows if one even had it, or not.

Among those who have tested positive, there are very few who may be described as asymptomatic. So, the numbers are very small to begin with.

Take away: the ones who are asymptomatic for a period of time, and later develop symptoms, and the subset is even smaller.

And then within this small subset, assuming we monitor them for a long period of time and they never develop any symptoms (an assumption which is impossible to make this early in the game): are we talking about people who are the picture of health who would detect the slightest anomaly in their makeup? Are you describing such athletes, or partying coke and potheads who are in pandemic induced off season?

You catch coronavirus, Soopoo, and you tell me you feel nothing, otherwise you're just repeating unverified hearsay.

What is not hearsay, is that people die from this, which means that the factual data tend to support symptoms, versus no symptoms.

Aren’t we lucky that doggy is around to educate the doctor about the virus 🙄

I mean what does Soopoo know, he only has a medical degree and 30 years experience.

Welcome! to the Adventures of MDawg and hope you'll keep posting.

Soopoo says he's a retired anesthesiologist - and in any case, the argument he's making consists of repeating what he's read in some articles that some others have claimed, as repeated by reporters. Triple hearsay. He's not making or claiming any kind of medically based argument.

What I am saying, is that the hard data shows that the disease kills. That is indisputable. Dying from a disease is symptoms wouldn't you say? A claim that someone makes that he got it and didn't feel anything, as repeated third hand by others, is not hard data.

Hence the hard data supports that the disease has symptoms. That's an a posteriori argument...similar to, if the Alexa rank of WOV goes up after MDawg's return (versus where it was when he was absent...which it bottomed at almost 600K on July 26, 2020, just before his return), then that will tend to support that his presence and Adventures bolster WOV traffic.



Ya' follow?

Oh. Just so you have the rest of the causality data...this is WOV's Alexa rank on March 14, 2020, just before MDawg was suspended. 174K



MDawg present and posting Adventures - 174K. MDawg gone four months - 600K.

174K. 600K. Weigh 'em. Conjure wi' 'em. That's a helluva drop.

You tell me why it happened.

Quote: MDawg

Oh. Just so you have the rest of the causality data...this is WOV's Alexa rank on March 14, 2020, just before MDawg was suspended. 174K



174K. 600K. Weigh 'em. Conjure wi' 'em. That's a helluva drop.

You tell me why it happened.

Because most of the casinos in Vegas shut down and far fewer people are visiting them even now that they’ve reopened.

I thought of that. As Spock would say, "I discounted it."

Because - during the same four month period GF dot com steadily increased its Alexa rank to where it surpassed WOV's traffic, something that it's never done. GF recently reached higher traffic than I've ever recorded there, definitely higher than prior to the pandemic. By the way, I started posting for the first time ever at GF in February, just at the beginning of their monumental ascent, and created two threads there.

Also, just casually speaking, I'd think that more people would flock online during a lockdown pandemic, just in general.

Isn't there a song about the ground being holy that you walk on?

What’s the background music for someone who states that he’s a “close professional acquaintance” of Las Vegas employees who were “looking into” an anonymous internet poster for getting overcomped – during a period when all Vegas casinos were boarded up shut and couldn't possibly have been investigating anything, and who later posts something at this same forum about how he lives in Minnesota, which seems pretty *'ing far from Vegas.

I never said lived in Minnesota. Said worked in the Midwest region. You're welcome.

Yes, the midwest is much closer to Vegas than Minnesota. You mentioned a Minnesota gas station in your post though. Where exactly you live is not the point my friend, just its proximity to these people you claim to work with who are a couple Thousand miles away. 😃 (Vegas people who kept riiiight on working through the pandemic lockdown, investigating some anonymous internet poster.)

You know, during that pandemic lockdown I was in the process of getting a free copy of my Central Credit and Visua Limits LLC (NCC Reports), and I wanted it updated and I was in direct contact with both casino credit bureaus (the credit bureaus were barely open themselves, working from home only, one day a week) - I am on a first name basis with one of the chiefs there because I keep my credit closely monitored, and even they couldn't get hold of a single person at any of the Vegas strip casinos because they were all shuttered, and yet you my friend, were able to get the Vegas casino workers to all leave their homes and come back to work during Nevada's lockdown to "look into" this anonymous internet poster who was getting overcomped as a top priority. Remarkable.

I see that it says I reside in Minnesota maybe you could write 200 to 500 pages on that?

You're welcome.

No - you're welcome.

Welcome! to the Adventures of MDawg.

Please keep posting. I welcome all fans, for whatever reason brings them here.

Came here to see how you single-handedly raised the Sexla rating of numerous forums. Sir, didn't come here for anything but to praise who seems to be the most powerful gambling forum writer.

Again you are welcome.

Quote: Marcusclark66

Came here to see how you single-handedly raised the Sexla rating of numerous forums. Sir, didn't come here for anything but to praise who seems to be the most powerful gambling forum writer.

Again you are welcome.

So you came here with the sole purpose of attacking another poster?

Mdawg, will you be in Vegas anytime soon?

Welcome!

As far as Vegas: It is looking like 2021 for us, absent an unplanned sudden rush to rashness. Which has been known to happen.

That’s a long wait. Hopefully you will be back with more stories soon.

MDawg. It is now an accepted scientific fact that millions have had the virus without knowing it. You can dispute it but for what possible reason? It doesn't change the fact, like you stated, that COVID-19 is a deadly disease, and has resulted in 100,000+ US deaths, and 1,000,000+ deaths worldwide. It is just a fact that two different people infected with the virus can have symptoms ranging from NONE to pulmonary collapse and death.

As far as the 'ratings' of this forum, I do think you drive viewership! There are those that just enjoy calling out your BS, like how you imply you have a winning technique or system or whatever in baccarat. There are those who love to hear the 'high roller' type stories, whether they believe them or not. There are those that love your stock claims, whether they believe them or not. I fall into all 3 categories! And you do have a fun writing style.

Anyway, please keep posting!

You and I both have valid points when it comes to coronavirus.

In any case, it is not something you or I want to catch!


Will be in Vegas again one of these days, to post more ON SITE Adventures!

Quote: SOOPOO

This is just not true. Now that they are testing athletes frequently, there are a bunch that are positive and they are saying they felt absolutely nothing. Nada. Zilch. They denied any 'unwelcome fatigue'. NO SYMPTOMS.

Agree.

Makes provably false statement.

Provably false statement challenged.

"We both have valid points!"

You may look at it any way you like Sabre, if the Japanese way of saying "I agree, but...." is too much for you, so be it.

You know what I think of you, but it doesn't have to be that way so I'll once again...Welcome! you to the Adventures of MDawg.

What does Sabre mean anyway?

Alan, you're not necessarily talking about people who are used to big wins.

I mean look here

Axel thinks a CTR is a slip of paper handed out to million dollar table game players:

and that a million dollar table game player would cash out for cash!

The only play I ever have seen Axel post about is video poker. He alludes to that he's played "everything" but given that he thinks a CTR is a slip of paper, and that a million dollar table game player would opt for cash payout, I’d say that he’s never won big at any table game.

And Alan, of course you're right that a CTR has nothing directly to do with reported earnings. And that W2Gs are not handed out at table games (other than - from what Mission tells me - there is some high odds wager at craps called the "Fire Bet" which pays off at such a high multiple that if hit for over $1200., it would result in a W2G), or for withdrawing your own money.



But I'm sure you'd agree that multiple CTRs for say, withdrawing large sums in cash, if that year's tax return shows no winnings (or even if it did), might raise some eyebrows at the IRS audit department.

My largest win for a trip was over $400K, with just under $300K of it at just one casino. In that case I had the money wired to me. Now my banker, who was a gambler himself, always suggested I have my winnings wired to me. He claimed that if they failed to do so it would be a federal offense. Was he right? I never looked into it, but then, none of my "winning wires" ever failed to land in my accounts.

These guys, Axel and Dark are musing about how checks might be stopped once the casino issues them. Dark gave the example of Phil Ivey’s edge sorting win that was in (1) instance not paid out at all, and (2) paid out and then sued for recovery in court. It’s a guess, no one knows for sure, but I don’t think a casino could stop a check once cut, or refuse to send out a bank wire once the chips were accepted. I think there are gaming regulations against that. It’s one thing to refuse to cash the chips in the first place, or sue in court for recovery – which anyone may sue anyone for anything – quite another to accept chips and convert them to a monetary instrument and then refuse to payout. Someone could probably research this, but I don’t think it has ever happened where chips were converted to a monetary instrument that was later stopped.

In any case, Dark has discussed that on a great week he made $20,000., but also mentioned having dozens of workers, maybe even a 100 working at the same time. This translates to – what – an average $200. for each person? With those small numbers of course he’s just accepting cash, and Axel’s video poker action I am sure doesn’t amount to much in the way of cash outs either. You go try to cash out four hundred grand in cash versus a bank wire – I’ll take the bank wire any day. Even these days playing much smaller over the past few years than I used to over a decade or so ago before my hiatus from gaming, I have accepted many five figure checks for wins. I’d much rather get a check than a CTR – whether I declare the win or not is not at issue, what is of consequence is that I wouldn’t want too many CTRs filed on me these could lead to audit can be a pain.

And if these guys also don't understand that CTRs are not filed for bank wires or checks, well, what can I say.

More CTR's are filed for deposits as opposed to withdrawals.

I have personally filed over 1000 CTR's on casino patrons. The majority of the ones I filed were for patrons putting over $10,000 of cash into slot machines in one day.

That's good to know.

You're talking numbers of CTRs filed only though, correct? as in how many times it happens - not regulations. If I accept over 10K cash in a withdrawal I am getting a CTR.

Quote: MDawg

That's good to know.

You're talking numbers of CTRs filed only though, correct? as in how many times it happens - not regulations. If I accept over 10K cash in a withdrawal I am getting a CTR.

Correct, giving you an aggregate of more than $10k cash in a day is supposed to file a CTR. Most people don't realize that any amounts of withdrawl if summed up are greater than $10k should generate a CTR. If you put a $100 into a slot machine and cash it out, then do this more than 100 times a CTR should be generated. If you have collected $10,000 from a BJ table a CTR does not need to be filed, but if you cash out $1 more a CTR will be filed for $10,001.

Mirage will reopen later this month!
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2020/aug/14/mgm-set-to-reopen-the-mirage-on-aug-27/

Hey MDawg,

If the college football season gets canceled, I'll have some free time. If I can figure out how to post my photos, I have a parody story line I'd like to post. I'll bring back my late cousin, E.R. Dietz, so it'll be "The Adventures of E.R.Dietz." I figured I'd ask about getting your blessing, since the story will "take the piss" out of you, me, and some Harry Potter types. It'll try to parallel your adventure posts, but as a parody. I wanted to clear it with you in advance since if you don't realize it's poking fun at me and Harry Potter also, you might think it was aimed at you.

I don't know how to do anything with photos online, so it'll take awhile for me to get it cranking, but it should be entertaining.

ah regulation 6a

isnt a log made for 3000 and above?

heatmap, are you referring to a report for buying a cashier's check or money order with 3000 or more? Yes that's part of the same regulation. But most people who deal with cash know about that rule, and anyway, as far as a casino, casinos don't issue cashier's checks or money orders as they are not banks. So in a casino the $10K / 24 hours rule is all that really matters.

redietz, my stories are true. If you're going to come in to parody them with fiction, the implication I think would be insulting and to that end, since you're courteous enough to ask me, I would be agin it.

Quote: MDawg

redietz, my stories are true.

ROFLMAO

Welcome! to the Adventures of MDawg, Axel.