Quote: darkozThe data is incorrect.
What data is incorrect?
I don't recall MDawg claiming that baccarat is beatable, only that he won for the particular circumstances of his trip.
Perpetual motion machines and candy cars notwithstanding, is it not possible for him to have won for the trips that he described?
Quote: coachbellyis it not possible for him to have won for the trips that he described?
Sure....by luck.
Quote: coachbellyWhat data is incorrect?
I don't recall MDawg claiming that baccarat is beatable, only that he won for the particular circumstances of his trip.
Perpetual motion machines and candy cars notwithstanding, is it not possible for him to have won for the trips that he described?
So now you claim it took 121 pages of this thread for MDawg to post a few trip reports?
This hasn't been 121 pages of him describing dozens of trips and years and claims he beats baccarat on a regular basis?
Quote: darkozSo now you claim it took 121 pages of this thread for MDawg to post a few trip reports?
I don't understand your question above.
Quote: darkozThis hasn't been 121 pages of him describing dozens of trips and years and claims he beats baccarat on a regular basis?
No it has not. Relatively few of the posts are of the nature you describe above.
It's been established that it is surely possible for him to have won for the 2020 trips, which were extensively documented.
When I asked you earlier about the play history for the 2020 trips, you claimed that the data was incorrect.
What data did you mean?
"which were extensively documented."Quote: coachbelly
It's been established that it is surely possible for him to have won for the 2020 trips, which were extensively documented.
Then, I guess they must be accurate.
Not to mention he's made 19 out of 19 accurate stock picks, supposedly he only lost one trade that was two years ago(or something like that).
Quote: coachbellyIt's been established that it is surely possible for him to have won for the 2020 trips, which were extensively documented.
Documented. As in, posted about it on an internet message board.
You’re saying that’s what it takes to establish that something really happened ?
Alrighty.
Quote: coachbellyI don't think he would be "better off"...better off in what respect?
When you assert fraud, you're accusing the member of being deceptive...not truthful.
Is there any documentation that MDawg could post that could verify that his trip reports are truthful and accurate?
It ain't happening, but if someone was able to view a tax return showing gambling winnings I'd believe him. Assuming the tax returns could be verified as actually being his tax returns. I won't be holding my breath.
If I was MDawg and was lying to the group I of course would not show my tax returns.
If I was MDawg and was telling the truth I of course would still not show my tax returns.
Las Vegas law firm sues China over coronavirus outbreak
https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/las-vegas-law-firm-sues-china-over-coronavirus-outbreak-1989826/
Given that I've won every trip for two years now, if I joined the lawsuit and claimed that I'm being held from my winning tables, and my damages are based on my average win per trip, what data would the other side present against my win statements?
Theory? Would they jump up and down and say that Baccarat is unbeatable? At the end of the day I would have established that I did in fact win. Would theory even be admissible against fact?
At most, I'd think the other side would be able to introduce theory to claim that this man, should in theory lose on his next trip. And then it would be up to the jury to decide which evidence bears more weight - the facts of the past, or the theories of the future.
Just a comic thought, but not so different from what is going on today in gambling forums that are debating MDawg's impeccable gaming record.
Quote: MDawgDid you see this?
Las Vegas law firm sues China over coronavirus outbreak
https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/las-vegas-law-firm-sues-china-over-coronavirus-outbreak-1989826/
Given that I've won every trip for two years now, if I joined the lawsuit and claimed that I'm being held from my winning tables, and my damages are based on my average win per trip, what data would the other side present against my win statements?
Theory? Would they jump up and down and say that Baccarat is unbeatable? At the end of the day I would have established that I did in fact win. Would theory even be admissible against fact?
At most, I'd think the other side would be able to introduce theory to claim that this man, should in theory lose on his next trip. And then it would be up to the jury to decide which evidence bears more weight - the facts of the past, or the theories of the future.
Just a comic thought, but not so different from what is going on today in gambling forums that are debating MDawg's impeccable gaming record.
Actually the Borgata wanted to sue Phil Ivey for his potential losses had he not edge sorted and the judge threw that aspect out of court
You can't sue for potential wins or losses in gambling
Quote: michael99000You’re saying that’s what it takes to establish that something really happened ?
Nope, I asked if there is any documentation that could be provided to establish that MDawg's account really happened.
Actually my original question in that regard is this...does any documentation exist, that a player could post on this forum, to verify that he has won at baccarat for any period of time?
A frequent response has been "no" - no documentation could verify that such an event occurred.
Here's another viewpoint...
Quote: SOOPOOif someone was able to view a tax return showing gambling winnings I'd believe him. Assuming the tax returns could be verified as actually being his tax returns.
What say you?
I asked if we could sue China for this on another thread. I got the old standard you can sue anyone for anything.Quote: MDawgDid you see this?
Las Vegas law firm sues China over coronavirus outbreak
https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/las-vegas-law-firm-sues-china-over-coronavirus-outbreak-1989826/
imagine how hard it would be to beat Baccarat if you were actually paying on your all your wins each year betting higher limit. Nevermind the house edge.Quote: SOOPOO
If I was MDawg and was lying to the group I of course would not show my tax returns.
If I was MDawg and was telling the truth I of course would still not show my tax returns.
I guess of course if you always win that isn't an issue. I would sure like to see the math behind beating the house advantage and the tax liability on baccarat at those levels and that situation.
MD certainly must be in a higher tax bracket.
Quote: darkozYou can't sue for potential wins or losses in gambling
This is not as a matter of law.
In other words, such a lawsuit might get to the jury.
Also, you mentioned the Borgata / Ivey lawsuit, this is what that issue was summarized as:
"The court also rejected an alternative theory of recovery advanced by the casino. Borgata had argued that, in addition to the return of Ivey's winnings, it was entitled to its expectation damages or lost profits. The casino claimed that, based on the odds associated with Baccarat, it would have won an additional $5,418,311.40 had Ivey and Sun not shifted the odd in their favor through the edge-sorting scheme. The court held that this theory of damages 'focuse[d] on the hypothetical -- what the Borgata would have won if the game had not been played with marked cards,' and therefore was "too speculative to fashion an appropriate remedy.'"
Again, this doesn't mean that it is not possible to argue potential casino wins or losses, as a matter of law. It simply means that in this case, when deciding damages, speculative damages were disallowed. Speculative damages are generally disallowed.
The court's actual words: "Although basic math can calculate Borgata's potential winnings based on the house edge, the number of hands played, and the average bet, this case involves the whims of Lady Luck, who casts uncertainty on every hand, despite the house odds. Indeed, Lady Luck is like nectar to gamblers, because no one would otherwise play a game he knows he will always lose. We simply don't know and will never know whether defendants would have beaten the odds in a normal game over those four days, by luck or otherwise, and by what amount."
What this implies, contrary to the conclusion you drew, is that FACTS as supported by my win statements, might be admissible as evidence of extrapolated losses due to being denied access to the casino. If anything, the argument on the OTHER side, spouting theory that MDawg should lose in the future due to house edge, might be held to be speculative based on this court ruling that you mention.
Stick to writing.
Quote: MDawgThis is not as a matter of law.
In other words, such a lawsuit might get to the jury.
Uh, no.
Judges usually rule by citing precedent
The precedent set in the Borgata case would almost certainly result in those claims being dismissed
And you misunderstood it anyway.
It's one thing to be wrong, quite another to argue as if you know something when you don't.
Quote: MDawg
It's one thing to be wrong, quite another to argue as if you know something when you don't.
You should know. It describes yourself pretty well.
You never lose (fiction is good that way) so what's the worry?
Which I think all this stems from some sort of resentment anyway...so they shut down your thread, but mine lives, is that what all this is about? Well, when you publish your book I am sure they will all be VERY VERY SORRY. So take it out on them, then. Not on me.
How the exact amount is figured would be complex, but certainly the lawsuit would be bona fide.
Quote: MDawgJumping up and down and insisting that it can't be done doesn't change the facts.
This is your most truthful statement in this entire thread
Jumping up and down and insisting that science and mathematics of probability can't be done doesn't change the fact that you are playing a -ev game and after all the sessions you have played you are either misrepresenting the truth or are cheating/doing some form of unspoken AP.
Personally since you take pride in winning I rule out AP because you probably would just brag you have some moves
I don't rule out cheating but most likely it's just mis-representation of the facts
Considering how 99% of the posters on this forum agree with me (coachbelly notwithstanding) it should be obvious no one here is buying your crap.
You are making yourself into a laughingstock right in front of your face and acting like your braggadocio makes you righteous. That's sad and I feel bad for you
The people on this forum I respect when it comes to the math and particulars of gaming. They are for the most part quite advanced in this area. Your claims are met with derision not by the uneducated mob but by specialists to the field of gambling AND taking advantage of gambling
Yet these are the very people you claim don't get it.
You are, in some respects, an anomaly to WOV. You are a modern Nathan with some more interesting methods of description and delivery. But while the writing is good the message is still the same. Whether it's how to pick winning lottery tickets in the Nathan threads or quit while you are ahead bunk in yours, it's all the same
Of course I realize this is different....
Quote: SOOPOOdark... it is a bit ironic that your posts were met with some skepticism as well.... and when you detailed how you were beating the casinos.... which I found fascinating, and believable, the backlash was severe.
Of course I realize this is different....
Yes, definitely ironic.
I admit I can be goaded into bragging but that's because I know I tell the truth so I am apt to give too many details
Perhaps that's what's irking me here. I never understood bragging about something untrue. Bragging about an unacomplishment
Do I think his trip reports are lies? I don’t. But it also doesn’t really affect me one way or another. I find entertainment value in his posts.
Do I suspect he quit playing a decade ago in part because he hit some series of losses? I do, but that’s just speculation based on little data.
He is constantly bragging about taking out markers and paying them right back
Quote: unJonCan I believe that he’s gone two years without experiencing any of the latter? Sure, why not.
Do I think his trip reports are lies? I don’t.
Quote: darkoz99% of the posters on this forum agree with me (coachbelly notwithstanding)
Your data is incorrect.
Quote: darkozPersonally I suspect a marker scam of some sort.
Are you accusing him of defrauding the casinos?
I read all this. the mdawg is i think man of honor i believe it is the true
the darkoz is the man i feel very sorry for. i read much here I read that they say he come from the street but still he act like he only a man of the street still
i not try say anything bad about the people but this how I feel i am sorry
Quote: GWAEAre you speaking of me? Unfortunately I am not in Vegas currently. At some point if you are there and I am as well I would love to meet up for dinner or a drink. I don't care about the claims or what people think you lie about. I have met around 40 people from this site and enjoy meeting new people. As you are in Vegas a lot maybe later this year our timeline will intersect.
I think you asked if anyone knew me or if I was trustworthy. As I said I have met about 40 people on here and I like to think of myself as trustworthy, however I am not looking for anything or to even watch you play. You have been such a polarizing person on here that I think a meet would be fun.
DRich, I think it just comes down to, as GWAE has said, that I am a polarizing figure.
Still, when it comes to bitter seething comments such as lately from DarkO I think he must be suffering from a touch of cabin fever, as perhaps are we all (that and deprivation of his minimum wage slot cheat income). He should be nice to me! I could probably rewrite his works and make them passably good. How is he writing his bus riding advantage play book anyway? If he's not using a ghost writer, he should, judging by some of the DarkO excerpts that EvenBob, Axel and others have posted on this forum. His writing seems to consist of mixed metaphors and cliches, galore. We must bust out the Hemingway crap detector and clean up that prose!
Quote: DRichWhy does anyone care if MDawgs results are fiction or non-fiction? He enjoys telling his story and some people enjoy reading it.
Because this is a gambling forum that skews towards the mathematically competent, if not proficient. It's not a creative writing forum.
In fact, that you would use a pejorative term like "creative" tells me that you are threatened by my posts. Why? Is it because someone is winning at the casinos and you are unable to do so yourself? Why not create a trip report thread of your own and tell us how you do it.
What's really interesting is that the more evidence that is provided to back up MDawg's claims, the more hysterical the opposition gets. Why?
Quote: MDawgRight, but what I post is the truth, backed up by not just the chips, cash and paid markers, but now by live video of my win statements. These are trip reports.
In fact, that you would use a pejorative term like "creative" tells me that you are threatened by my posts. Why? Is it because someone is winning at the casinos and you are unable to do so yourself? Why not create a trip report thread of your own and tell us how you do it.
What's really interesting is that the more evidence that is provided to back up MDawg's claims, the more hysterical the opposition gets. Why?
Your claim is that you are telling the truth
Therefore the Wizard is a liar when he says authoritatively that there is no system (not the methods you have described) that can overcome house edge.
(There are legal AP methods like I employ which are a lot smarter than losing thousands and then winning it back on a hunch at Baccarat like you claim is your master move)
Mathematical probability is the big lie. Because mathematical probability says you cannot sustain the wins you do.
Someone or something is lying
I am pretty certain it's not the Wizard
Really this shows me how little you know about gambling. Then again, you just got involved with it, what a few years ago? Figures.
As I posted elsewhere, for example about Coach, What some don't seem to understand is that Coach isn't saying that MDawg won, not per se, what he is saying is, How do any of you know that he has not won? And not one of you has an answer other than perhaps spouting theory.
In any case, we're back on top again. 😎
Quote: MDawgIn any case, we're back on top again. 😎
Great. You finally beat the Coronavirus for interest. You must be proud (the equation is probably justified)
1. Anyone posts about what is claimed advantage play, the reaction:
Shut up! don't talk about that.
2. Anyone posts about winning at anything other than what is claimed as advantage play, the reaction:
Shut up! don't talk about that.
Quote: MDawgRight, but what I post is the truth, backed up by not just the chips, cash and paid markers, but now by live video of my win statements. These are trip reports.
In fact, that you would use a pejorative term like "creative" tells me that you are threatened by my posts. Why? Is it because someone is winning at the casinos and you are unable to do so yourself? Why not create a trip report thread of your own and tell us how you do it.
What's really interesting is that the more evidence that is provided to back up MDawg's claims, the more hysterical the opposition gets. Why?
You post about your winning sessions. Everyone who gambles has winning sessions. I can post about all my winning sessions too, and I can post the same type of proof that they occurred that you do.
It’s your losing sessions that we never hear about. They happen, but including them in your posts doesn’t go well with the whole narrative you’re trying to tell.
Maybe there’s other boards where people believe someone never loses at a negative EV game, never loses on a stock trade. Unfortunately that’s not how it is here. But continue to tell your tale for the enjoyment of the mendozas and coachbellys
Quote: MDawgRight, but what I post is the truth, backed up by not just the chips, cash and paid markers, but now by live video of my win statements. These are trip reports.
Well, that’s your claim and you can say it over and over. You claim it’s true. You claim it’s fact. On the baccarat AP stuff....it’s simply a story here, an anecdote, and frankly it’s rooted out to be false, not factual. There is no baccarat AP play unless we accept voodoo or “leave when ahead” as viable AP methods.
Now, people here can “choose” to view it as fact or they can “choose” to view it as hogwash.
Effectively, on a forum such as this as it relates to claims of gambling superstar status...it’s nothing more than a story. It might or might not be factual. Stating it over and over and over and over “this is fact”....does not make it fact.
That decision is left up to the reader...not the writer. I’m actually surprised this isn’t understood.
I believe the chips are real. I believe the money is real. I believe the pictures were taken. I don’t really believe you are a long term baccarat winner. Your stock market 19 of 19 or 100 of 100 claims reinforce that idea.
No harm, it’s a gambling discussion forum. Nature of the beast.
Carry on.
I post all of my sessions. And now, I've even posted all of my win statements to corroborate the exact sum wins that correspond pretty much exactly to all of my sessions posted. Wow, what a coincidence. Or maybe...he was telling the truth all along.
So, were you at the casino playing, or me? How would you know what happened. So, stop waffling on about something you know nothing about.
You couldn't even come up with fifty grand to play side by side with me at any casino, you whiffed on our show down bet. I offered to let you play at any casino game of your choosing and I would beat you in terms of over all win at the end of the wager period. (Well let's see now, you would have had to win more than $32,000. with your fifty grand in the two week wager period - could you have done it?) Which whatever you do in casinos or sports betting is fine, you are who you are, you do whatever you do, but don't tell me what I did or didn't do I was the one who lived it, not you.
TDVegas: what's with the "Carry On" 🥳is that a British expression? Just curious. There's a Canadian guy at the GF who ends every post with a "hey, hey"
This session was a loss...here it is:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/28713-playing-for-comps/2/#post739653
that's the one where I lost at Cosmo then walked all the way to T.I. and won it back. This is why the Cosmo win statement for 2019 was only 11,150 and the win for T.I. was 48,350 - the win at T.I. was a grudge win to make up for the Cosmo loss, then after I won and paid Cosmo back I didn't really care about the loss at Cosmo and just resumed play at what I considered to be ground zero. The loss at Cosmo was in one session, and the wins at T.I. were over two sessions as I recall. The first night I won what I needed to cover the Cosmo loss, then when I went back I won a gang more.
The WOV forum software is very hard to use for any kind of search. Just finding something is hard.
There is another session where I lost - where I dumped half my winnings the last night. If I could just find it at WOV, it is not easy to search for anything here you practically have to know exactly where the post is already in order to even find it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/28713-playing-for-comps/13/#post742930
in that post I referenced the last night I played at the last casino of that trip – where I ended up dumping a ton, about 36K such that if I had not I would have won $60K that trip, but ended up winning only $24K. This was the month long Vegas trip.
This is part of why I gave up on the “indefinite length” Vegas trips. Two weeks seems to be about the sweet spot.
Over the past year there were more than a few sessions I won by the skin of my teeth - (down $8000., $13000., I recall one where I dipped as low as down thirty some thousand) - but I made it back. I posted about all these. I just wait for a good shoe and then press. I dunno, when I am in such shoes I've actually heard pit bosses joke with me about how I am "saving the house money" meaning that in such shoes they'd expect me to empty the tray but instead I just play to get back to even and then stop. So it's not always fun and games but I am a very disciplined gambler and I have won consistently.
Also there is a point during my trips when the discipline tends to wear down and the casino has a higher chance of getting me. For example the month long trip I had I was up a certain amount at the two week mark, and then up even more, and then on the last night I dumped half of what I had won to end up no more ahead at a month than I was at two weeks. So, two weeks seems to be about right - enough time so that I am unhurried and don't even play each day, and also enough time so that I can just get up and quit while ahead anytime I choose with plenty of more days when I may play as I wish.
In short - my personal experience has been that if I have to win, it becomes harder. When I don't care and may play at my leisure, I win more easily. Consequently, I just gamble for fun and not for a living. These days especially, I make a lot more at my real occupation and businesses than I do at gambling.
To you, it may not seem scientific, but for me, it works.
The house edge - irrelevant. I don't flat bet and I don't believe I have ever had a session where I have won or lost the theoretical. I don't see any big Baccarat players or any high rollers period at any table game who win or lose the theoretical. When these guys lose, they tend to lose all they have. The house could remove the edge from Baccarat and still high rollers would most of the time walk with nothing after having lost it all. What beats most gamblers is that they just can't get up from the table - they keep playing until they have lost it all. Whether you are playing BJ counting cards or not counting cards still the variance irrespective of the count will result in highs and lows, and if you can't get up when ahead you will lose. When I play BJ, which I still play this some these days and of course I count and employ other advantage plays, I don't play only Bacc., still I get up and leave the BJ table ahead I don't just sit there mechanically expecting to earn always every hour, not to mention that the longer I sit at the BJ table - the way I play I jump my bet a LOT when the time is right - the more chance that some pit boss will come out of nowhere and put the BJ clampdown on me, as has happened in the past.
What did you think of this post I made at WOV - NO one commented on it:
There is no way to win other than quitting while ahead.
I mean if you don't end the session ahead, how may you win?
Whether you consider this plain statement ontologically or epistemologically, it is indisputable.
His thread could have led to actual real money making information being spread hurting other people's income and that's why it caused so much controversy. Yours won't be shut down because only (insert derogatory word) believe there's a way to beat Baccarat via hit-and-run methods that don't have an actual mathematical advantage.Quote: MDawgJumping up and down and insisting that it can't be done doesn't change the facts.
Which I think all this stems from some sort of resentment anyway...so they shut down your thread, but mine lives, is that what all this is about? Well, when you publish your book I am sure they will all be VERY VERY SORRY. So take it out on them, then. Not on me.
I said something very similar to this the other day on the different forum. It's possible I overestimated how many people believed him and went with 95%.Quote: darkozConsidering how 99% of the posters on this forum agree with me (coachbelly notwithstanding) it should be obvious no one here is buying your crap.
You are making yourself into a laughingstock right in front of your face and acting like your braggadocio makes you righteous
Regarding coachbelly, I'm not sure if he actually believes anyone's stories in particular. I think this whole argument is that there are people who can get lucky long enough and actually win playing - EV games.
Basically, I think he thinks that Advantage players have a self-righteous thinking that they're the only ones that can ever win.
If you yourself are a ploppy/-ev player who enjoys it, I can see how Advantage players might just piss you off.
You seem to be fanatical about making it about how to win at Baccarat. That's your twist on MDawg living large in your head, not mine!
Simply put, it as absurd to state that it is impossible to win at a house edge game as it would be absurd to claim that one must win at a positive player edge game. In both cases the percentages are so small that anything could happen. In the end, you're not playing any table games anyway, so how would you know? other than standing by while others spout theory.
Let's get to the heart of things, why does it bother you so much that MDawg has been successful at this? You shore doe put a lot of time and energy into thinking and posting about this - at times, you post about me - even more than I post about me!
I used to know a man that could turn chickenpoop into a salad but few can turn a one line joke into a novel.
I've played plenty of table games in the past and and I will in the future. I don't care what the game is, I have played just about everything you can imagine with an advantage, if there's a good enough advantage to be had, I'll play it. I generally prefer lower risk higher percentage plays. I don't care about the thrill of betting big and winning or losing big, not that I haven't done those types of things, I just prefer not to.Quote: MDawgI'm just making trip reports.
You seem to be fanatical about making it about how to win at Baccarat. That's your twist on MDawg living large in your head, not mine!
Simply put, it as absurd to state that it is impossible to win at a house edge game as it would be absurd to claim that one must win at a positive player edge game. In both cases the percentages are so small that anything could happen. In the end, you're not playing any table games anyway, so how would you know? other than standing by while others spout theory.
Let's get to the heart of things, why does it bother you so much that MDawg has been successful at this? You shore doe put a lot of time and energy into thinking and posting about this.
I get excited when there is something that has a 10% or more advantage... that's A thrill for me knowing there's a very small chance to lose, and I am most definitely going to make some money.
Quote: MDawgYou shore doe put a lot of time and energy into thinking and posting about this - at times, you post about me - even more than I post about me!
Please continue to post about me so that we maintain this ratio of three or four Axel posts ABOUT MDawg, for every actual MDawg post.
Quote: AxelWolfBasically, I think he thinks that Advantage players have a self-righteous thinking that they're the only ones that can ever win.
You are incorrect...I don't know nor do I think about what APs think.
I'm not even aware of who is an AP and who isn't.
How would I know?...Is there any documentation a player could provide to verify their AP status?
What I do know is that some members have insisted that MDawg has fabricated his results, that he could not have won as he reported for the 2020 trips.
But it's clear that he could have won as reported.
Some insist that it's impossible for him to prove that he has won playing baccarat for any period of time.
That's an irrational position, and I reject that notion, regardless of the status of whoever makes that claim.
Quote: coachbellyYou are incorrect...I don't know nor do I think about what APs think.
I'm not even aware of who is an AP and who isn't.
How would I know?...Is there any documentation a player could provide to verify their AP status?
What I do know is that some members have insisted that MDawg has fabricated his results, that he could not have won as he reported for the 2020 trips.
But it's clear that he could have won as reported.
Some insist that it's impossible for him to prove that he has won playing baccarat for any period of time.
That's an irrational position, and I reject that notion, regardless of the status of whoever makes that claim.
MDawg testimony is clear to you but proven AP players and proven AP tactics are not?
This is getting more and more hilarious.
Or more and more Orwellian. 2+2=5. Said it so must be true
Quote: darkozMDawg testimony is clear to you but proven AP players and proven AP tactics are not?
This is getting more and more hilarious.
Or more and more Orwellian. 2+2=5. Said it so must be true
Making the world safe for musical comedy since 2019.