The Adventures of MDawg
Quote: coachbellyI recall MDawg making that distinction several times, and also providing screen shots demonstrating good and bad shoes.
MDawg has explained that good shoes are those that contain recognizable patterns, and especially...long streaks.
My understanding is that his strategy is primarily to press into streaks, so that if a substantial streak occurs he'll be pressing up his bet for the duration of the streak.
He hasn't claimed to be able to predict whether or not a shoe WILL be good or bad, only to reflect on whether or not a shoe HAS been good or bad...primarily based on the streaks.
Am I correct in my assessment?
Here is the problem with streak betting.
You arrive at the table only to discover a long streak has just passed. Naturally you dont sit at that table only to see it actually streaks again for half an hour. you feel dumb for not playing
Next time you arrive and again see a table has just had. a long streak. This time you are too smart and you do play. Of course, now the table doesn't streak again and you lose all your money
Next time you arrive and notice there have been no recent streaks. Smart enough now to play with the possibility of a streak so much better you play for hours and no streak occurs. Finally frustrated you get up and watch as a streak suddenly materializes only you arent wagering. Cursing that you stopped at precisely the wrong time, you finally jump back in... only for the streak to stop again
Now occasionally you do catch a streak and pat yourself on the back. But MDawg is claiming he makes his money off streaks he isnt doing anything except getting lucky and he will get just as unlucky if he has t already
In the end shy of a legitimate Advantage, you will not beat the casino
Quote: EvenBobHow would you know. You heard this somewhere
and are repeating it because you think it sounds
good. Have you ever played bac long enough that
you can verify what you're saying? That would be
years, BTW, not a couple weekends 10 years ago.
Is that how the starz work? I always assumed the members and their sock puppets voted? For the entire time I've been here I may have only click that drop down a few times ,I don't really know TBH. I forgot that it existed until you just mentioned it.Quote: lilredroosterwould the mod who awarded this thread 3 gold stars care to identify him or herself and explain the logic behind that?
seems pretty strange to me since the thread is dominated by nonsense
Quote: darkozHere is the problem with streak betting....
That problem may not apply to MDawg, did the sequence you wrote about happen to Mdawg?
He's posting his playing report in almost real time...you are making up a scenario...based on what?
Quote: darkozhe will get just as unlucky if he hasnt already
You are asserting that he is "due" , or he is lying, or both.
Which is it?
why do all your posts end in questions?Quote: coachbellyYou are asserting that he is "due" , or he is lying, or both.
Which is it?
Quote: coachbellyYou are asserting that he is "due" , or he is lying, or both.
Which is it?
I am asserting that mathematical probability will end up working as expected and as it has worked for quite some time
Quote: darkozI am asserting that mathematical probability will end up working as expected and as it has worked for quite some time
I'll ask again...how many hands are required for the probability to "end up working as expected" ?
Has Mdawg played that many hands? Will he play that many hands? Can he realistically play that many hands?
Quote: unJonwhy do all your posts end in questions?
I'm trying to clearly understand what's been written.
Also, questions asked tend to keep the discussion moving forward...as did yours.
so I had to butter it myself, and the results are never entirely satisfactory as by the time it gets up here it's never quite hot enough to melt the butter.
What about all this ketchup (pronounced catsup)?
If you stay in enough hotel rooms is there ever any need to buy ketchup? Sometimes they bring us four little bottles of ketchup with the room service order. We like the organic variety so we do have our own at home, but if not, all you'd have to do is haul off a bag of this stuff after each stay and you'd be set. Same with all this jam. At least they don't provide marmalade at this resort, who likes that stuff? Not I.
Quote: coachbellyI'm trying to clearly understand what's been written.
Also, questions asked tend to keep the discussion moving forward...as did yours.
Or you're trying to stick up for the OP in a roundabout way.
Quote: FTBOr you're trying to stick up for the OP in a roundabout way.
Did you mean to write..."And you're trying to stick up for the OP" ?
Because when you write "Or" you imply it's either one or the other(s), that all 3 cannot be true.
Quote: coachbellyDid you mean to write..."And you're trying to stick up for the OP" ?
Because when you write "Or" you imply it's either one or the other(s), that all 3 cannot be true.
Generally “or” means that all the options can be true also. Sometimes it is ambiguous. If preceded by “either” it tends to mean both cannot be true.
Hmmm... this thread's stock was on the rise earlier today, but now it seems to be trending the other direction.Quote: beachbumbabsI'm not seeing any indication whether a mod rated anything, versus any member, mod or not. So idk what you're looking at. But I generally don't rate any threads, I just scroll past it and ignore it. And I had not previously rated this one. Can you tell what I gave it a couple minutes ago?
I'm guessing you did not give it 5 stars!
Typically, the guy who mentioned this, I think there were two of you actually who said something or other to this effect of why does he post pictures of this? fixated on the cash on the bed (or couch, or table) versus my million plus dollar watch collection, of which I posted a video of just a small portion of it. That sort of video posting was done in response to certain naysayers.
As I've noted, I got carried away with posting a bit too much related to my personal finances. That's not the point - the point of this thread is about how's it going at the casinos, in the context of commentary on life in general and the stays themselves.
If some of you want to twist yourselves over trying to figure out what MDawg's got going on at home, that's just human nature but I will try to no longer feed into that.
Directed to the few lingering naysayers ONLY:
It's ON to the next resort, shortly.
Quote: unJonGenerally “or” means that all the options can be true also. Sometimes it is ambiguous.
I'm not sure that's a general, typical or practical meaning.
For instance...if a server was to ask "coffee or tea?" a response of "yes" would indicate that both options are acceptable, but the question clearly implies a choice of one or other, not both.
It's not clear whether FTB meant that all the options are true, or if FTB was being ambiguous...
Quote: FTBOr you're trying to stick up for the OP in a roundabout way.
It's likely "or" was used as the Webster-defined "function word to indicate an alternative",
especially in consideration of the qualifier "in a roundabout way" as though I was disguising my motive.
Is there a way to give it -points? There should be.Quote: beachbumbabsI'm not seeing any indication whether a mod rated anything, versus any member, mod or not. So idk what you're looking at. But I generally don't rate any threads, I just scroll past it and ignore it. And I had not previously rated this one. Can you tell what I gave it a couple minutes ago?
Quote: FTBOr you're trying to stick up for the OP in a roundabout way.
As I said earlier, he is antagonist for the sake of being a contrarian.
While he certainly can’t keep up with Bacman financially, it’s makes him part of the conversation.
He’s a MDawg groupie.
Here we all are bumping this 'popular thread'Quote: AxelWolfIs there a way to give it -points? There should be.
Suckers the lot of us! Rubber necking this car crash / train wreck.
We won't do it, but , IMHO, the best way of dealing with ridiculousness is ridicule or indifference.
By ridiculousness, I mean certain post content. Not the poster.
We mods will still try to give a level playing field with regards personal insults.
Thanks to Spiro Agnew and King David
Quote: BozAs I said earlier, he is antagonist for the sake of being a contrarian.
While he certainly can’t keep up with Bacman financially, it’s makes him part of the conversation.
He’s a MDawg groupie.
An antagonist, contrarian, financially inferior, and a groupie...that's quite an insult-filled troll post you've produced.
Did my bookmark not work correctly...is this VCT ?
Quote: OnceDearWe mods will still try to give a level playing field with regards personal insults.
I disagree. However, I ask that ALL members get back to commenting on posts, not members.Quote: coachbellyAn antagonist, contrarian, financially inferior, and a groupie...that's quite an insult-filled troll post you've produced.
Did my bookmark not work correctly...is this VCT ?
Quote: OnceDearI disagree. However, I ask that ALL members get back to commenting on posts, not members.
Trying to understand the boundaries here....
The comment below is about the post, and not the member...right?
Quote: coachbellyAn antagonist, contrarian, financially inferior, and a groupie...that's quite an insult-filled troll post you've produced.
Quote: MDawgI post the truth.
Well, that settles everything. Now I’m really convinced.
from what I can remember, Whenever there is some kind of challenge/bet when it comes to Advantage players versus bullsh***ers he seems to want to get involved to push some buttons. Not that there's anything wrong with that.Quote: BozAs I said earlier, he is antagonist for the sake of being a contrarian.
He certainly seems to side with non Advantage Players.
Quote: coachbellyI'll ask again...how many hands are required for the probability to "end up working as expected" ?
Has Mdawg played that many hands? Will he play that many hands? Can he realistically play that many hands?
Based on his own writing, MDawg has played enough hands for overall results to approximate expected results with virtual certainty (pictures from Las Vegas trips going back to the 90s). Therefore it is a virtual certainty that he could not be such a consistent winner playing games with negative expectations. The only possible conclusion I can reach is that he is playing with an edge over the casino. This makes sense as he states over and over again about how the probabilities between player, banker, and tie are constantly changing based on past results. It makes even more sense when we understand the chance of him coming out a winner on this trip was extremely high and is going exactly in that direction.
What explanations do you have?
Still, quite a lot.
As your attorney I advise you to stock up on Tumi and Briggs & Riley luggage. Some of the Tumi we own, which we have almost two dozen pieces total, is of the lifetime guarantee variety, and all of the B&R is lifetime guarantee. Anything more expensive, like Louis Vuitton, which we have a fair amount of that too, you end up not even wanting to use for fear it will get stolen. We do bring a few Louis Vuitton pieces along each trip for personal items, but Tumi and B&R hit the right price point of neat, but not ostentatious.
Sometimes I see some of the Asian high rollers who flew in from out of the country checking in, and they have even more stuff than we do, with almost all of the stuff that belongs to the wife in Louis Vuitton (evident to me due to the feminine color scheme of the luggage and the tags), and the stuff that belongs to the husband in crappy suitcases you wonder why anyone would even use. Lets you know right away who's spending the money on what, in that family. I suppose it's the same everywhere; I have a Tumi leather computer case, she has a Chanel backpack (more than one actually).
When we drive though, we usually end up just throwing a lot of stuff into bags, versus packing it neatly into suitcases, and even moreso when traveling between resorts. Why pack fully?
Plus, two hanging garment bags:
Now we're ensconced in the Encore suite, and she's dancing around it. I asked her why this suite makes her feel so good. I guess it's the atmosphere, all the floor to ceiling glass windows, and the view straight down the Strip, because actually this is just a regular Tower Suite 750 square feet. Due to CES all the large suites are taken until about the twelfth, at which point we may move, but I doubt it, too much hassle. This is cool, and we are on a full RFB stay basis, and will probably leave by the 15th.
Not sure if I will play tonight. Usually don't on check in days, and almost never on check out days.
I want to look up my friend who LIVES here at Encore, he texted me a couple days ago. He is still here.
Although we are RFB thinking of taking a quick walk. To Tacos El Gordo! to bring something back to the suite. That's the way MDawg wishes to roll, tonight, and I just confirmed it with the wife. She said, Oh yeah, yeah! when I suggested El Gordo. "You read my mind." I just hope the line isn't too long this time.
Quote: AxelWolfWhenever there is some kind of challenge/bet when it comes to Advantage players versus bullsh***ers he seems to want to get involved to push some buttons.
Not involved to push buttons, but to encourage the challenges/bets to happen.
I've never heard of a single one actually happening...lot's of sizzle but never any stakes.
In my experience, it's always the APs who find a reason to back down.
Quote: coachbellyNot involved to push buttons, but to encourage the challenges/bets to happen.
I've never heard of a single one actually happening...lot's of sizzle but never any stakes.
In my experience, it's always the APs who find a reason to back down.
Absolutely correct. There seems to be very little chance MDawg would ever meet up with someone from here for them to witness his Advantage Play.
Quote: TomGWhat explanations do you have?
How many hands played are required to approximate expected results with virtual certainty?
How many hands has MDawg played?
If your answer is..."MDawg has played enough hands" I would submit that "enough" is not sufficient to determine mathematical certainty...enough is an undefined component of an equation.
If major components of your equation are either unknown or undefined, then how can you solve it with any certainty?
Quote: TomGThere seems to be very little chance MDawg would ever meet up with someone from here for them to witness his Advantage Play.
Oh no? Here you go...
Quote: MDawgSomeone on here made a polite introduction and request, and I encouraged him to message me to discuss further. Did not receive any message.
I'll bet you my first-class roundtrip airfare EWR-LAS, plus a negotiated commission, that MDawg would meet me next week.
Quote: coachbellyQuote: TomGWhat explanations do you have?
How many hands played are required to approximate expected results with virtual certainty?
How many hands has MDawg played?
If your answer is..."MDawg has played enough hands" I would submit that "enough" is not sufficient to determine mathematical certainty...enough is an undefined component of an equation.
If major components of your equation are either unknown or undefined, then how can you solve it with any certainty?
It's obvious you have no explanation at all and can only try to poke holes in the explanations that other people provide.
Even if the results aren't enough to convince you about MDawg's advantage, he has been very clear in his strategy: he is able to identify times when the probability of player, banker, or tie change based on past hands in the shoe and makes his bets accordingly.
Quote: coachbellyOh no? Here you go...
I'll bet you my first-class roundtrip airfare EWR-LAS, plus a negotiated commission, that MDawg would meet me next week.
So you are showing up to meet him with $50,000 intended to waged with him?
That is what he asked for and certainly the real reason no one is meeting him.
For all we know this is all some long-con scam to get some sucker with $50,000 cornered in the parking lot
Quote: darkozSo you are showing up to meet him with $50,000 intended to waged with him?
No, I intend to meet him without the $50K stipulation.
But it should be noted, that if MDawg declines to meet me then I will have lost the bet.
Now Tom & I need to negotiate what our respective exposures would be on the play.
I've already committed to at least the airfare, I'll look into it and report back how much that would be.
For now I'll ballpark it at $1500.
Here is the money but in order to trust you I need to know you have similar resources.. Just stick the money in this paper bag along with mine.
Sorry, again, I am not saying thats what is happening here. But I cant help thinking of that classic scam
Quote: coachbellyOh no? Here you go...
I'll bet you my first-class roundtrip airfare EWR-LAS, plus a negotiated commission, that MDawg would meet me next week.
I'll take that bet. Meetup with MDawg sometime between now and next Thursday and I can pay you whatever amount we agree to in person in Las Vegas.
Quote: TomGIt's obvious you have no explanation at all
I may have misunderstood what explanation you were looking for.
Are you asking for an explanation of how he could be an overall winner, or an explanation why he may not have been an overall loser?
Quote: TomGI'll take that bet. Meetup with MDawg sometime between now and next Thursday and I can pay you whatever amount we agree to in person in Las Vegas.
I'll need until the end of next week (1/18/2020)
We'll need to agree to the amount before I fly out, and repercussions that would apply should either party reneg.
I would also expect you to attend the meet-up, as long as MDawg agrees.
Quote: coachbellyI'll need until the end of next week (1/18/2020)
We'll need to agree to the amount before I fly out, and repercussions that would apply should either party reneg.
I would also expect you to attend the meet-up, as long as MDawg agrees.
I will bet $50 you do not fly first class from EWR to LAS (or whatever transportation method you want) to meetup with MDawg. I can pay that money to any wizardogvegas member with a green name tonight and I won’t even ask the same for you
Quote: TomGI will bet $50 you do not fly first class from EWR to LAS (or whatever transportation method you want) to meetup with MDawg.
Oh no you don't...here's what has already been agreed to...
Quote: coachbellyI'll bet you my first-class roundtrip airfare EWR-LAS, plus a negotiated commission, that MDawg would meet me next week.
Quote: TomGI'll take that bet.
That means you are (at least) on the hook for my airfare when I show up and meet MDawg....agreed?
Quote: coachbellyOh no you don't...here's what has already been agreed to...
That means you are (at least) on the hook for my airfare when I show up and meet MDawg....agreed?
What the heck is this wager about? Person A agrees to meet with Person B, and Person C says it won't happen? Why wouldn't it? Meeting people is not a demonstration of a baccarat advantage play.
What am I missing here?
I can claim I fly. Coach belly agrees to meet me. Is there some way I can bet someone he'll meet me? What am I missing here?
Quote: redietzWhat am I missing here?
Person A (MDawg) hasn't agreed to meet person B (belly).
Person C (Tom) is betting that MDawg won't agree, that the meeting won't happen.
Quote: TomGThere seems to be very little chance MDawg would ever meet up with someone from here for them to witness his Advantage Play.
Quote: coachbellyI'll bet you my first-class roundtrip airfare EWR-LAS, plus a negotiated commission, that MDawg would meet me next week.
Quote: TomGI'll take that bet.
Get it now?
Quote: darkozIt sounds like a hustle to get a free trip to vegas lol
Only if...
1) I can convince MDawg to meet me
2) I fly out there and meet him
3) I can get Tom to pay me what he owes me
Pretty weak hustle...does that really sound like a hustle to you?
Quote: darkozIt sounds like a hustle to get a free trip to vegas lol
No kidding.
Hey, maybe I could volunteer to be MDawg. Or recruit somebody to play the part. I don't even need first class. Just a coach ticket and a meal at Vic and Anthony's at the Nugget.
What does any of this have to do with baccarat?
If coach wants to establish that MDawg is who he is and does what he says, wouldn't the first step be to simply ask him his real name? I mean, the guy isn't hiding his play strategy from his host or anything. He's not keeping his wins secret. He's just not putting his face in the photos.
Quote: redietzHey, maybe I could volunteer to be MDawg.
You don't need to trick me into meeting you.
GNAC has a Vic & Anthony's.
I can meet you there anytime, I don't even need any notice.
Haven't we been through this already?
Why don't you just ask MDawg his real name? He's not hiding anything from anybody.
Coach you finalize your bet and send me a message and we'll work out the details. You will win your bet, however I won't be here all the way to the 18th I don't think. More like the 15th.
But, by the way, coachbelly is not the polite person who seemed to be seeking to meet up with me in Vegas.
