The Adventures of MDawg

Quote: DogHand

WHAT??? I've followed this thread for 84 tortuous pages only to find that MDawg is NOT going to teach me how to beat baccarat?

Well that's it... I'm through with this thread! ;-)

Dog Hand

He's not beating baccarat. No one is.

He wins....
He loses....

Whether he is net positive over a career of play is something that will never be determined here, proven here or validated here. Frankly, I highly doubt he has any clue where he stands long term. One can win long term....but that's based on luck, not utilizing some method to overcome house edge.

If I was going to venture a guess, he's net negative over years of play....but concede I could be wrong.

Simulations show a very small percentage can be net positive over long term play in a negative EV game....and this would be utilizing very low house edge bets only....1.4% and lower. Baccarat would be a possibility.

Enjoy the thread for what it is...entertainment. You're not going to be taught anything here.

Give me a break, next thing you'll be telling me what size shoes I need to wear. "I highly doubt he has any clue where he stands long term." 😄 Am I wearing the shoes, or you?

Quote: Eggharbor

As soon as somebody post real pictures 99% of everybody that doesn't, beats the crap out of them. They did the same thing to the guy that owns the other website that talks about Baccarat and posts real results, that used to be on a couple Message Boards posting trip reports and pictures in Las Vegas. I don't know maybe it's better to sit home and just dream and don't post anything?

Today, was a good day. Finally! some real money, 6100 to the good from today's session. Total winnings now exceed 10K, which makes our stay seem a little more worthwhile.

I paid off yesterday's 5K marker at the cage with their flimsy 5K chip from yesterday's session, on the way to the gym this morning. They really verify everything here, even phoning the high limit pit to verify that they had issued me the chip. Given that I got it last night, I would have thought that by now their computer would have updated., without the need to phone additionally yesterday's pit!

After workout, and breakfast in the room, as I arrived at the scene, my friend was coming back from -75K in the hole, and betting 5-17K per hand. Luckily for us, it was a banker's shoe and it was just a question of HOW MUCH we were going to win. Her betting big inspired me to bet bigger too today.

How ya' gonna lose with a shoe like this? I left after the last natural 8 bank. I even caught nearly all of that five player run, which ra perfectly symmetrically and predictably side by side with the five bank run, and after that one she reasoned that the runs were stopping at five and she slammed fifteen grand on the bank and I supported, and we won that hand too. (On that hand I actually was going to stay on the player, because I try never to get off runs, but she asked me not to bet against her, so I supported her.) I was SLAMMING down the naturals on the player's side when we did pick the occasional justifiable player's bet, and my friend handled opening the bank cards, which we'd win together even with just a six as the player was unable to outdraw us. Another banker's shoe! with an almost sure thing third banker's bet all but one time!

She went from -75k to +20K, on this shoe, pretty incredible to watch. I played just this one shoe today, not even all of it, seemed no need to play onwards how could it get better?

If any of the "language" used in this thread seems unfamiliar, or you are misreading the action, I will wager that it is because you don't play Bacc. and know little about the game! So, for the detractors here: please go back to whatever it is that you do in casinos to make money, and stop knocking what is working for others!

So now the winnings have piled up to 10K plus

and it's not feeling so much like a waste of time.

This is it for this resort, on to the next tomorrow. Gonna drive into town to run a couple errands and bask in the winner's glow.

So how much did he tell the IRS he won last year? How many sessions? Or do casino bank deposits and withdrawals speak for themselves?

***********************************
OTOH, I don't understand how high limit slot players who win $40K many times a day on jackpots, totaling maybe a million dollars a day, but who are just breaking even; how do they document their losses or sessions, especially when they don't seem to care about money, period?

Quote: ChumpChange

So how much did he tell the IRS he won last year? How many sessions? Or do casino bank deposits and withdrawals speak for themselves?

Who are you asking?

Quote: coachbelly

Who are you asking?

I was asking the owner of the stacks of cash in the photos above.

Quote: ChumpChange

So how much did he tell the IRS he won last year? How many sessions? Or do casino bank deposits and withdrawals speak for themselves?

***********************************
OTOH, I don't understand how high limit slot players who win $40K many times a day on jackpots, totaling maybe a million dollars a day, but who are just breaking even; how do they document their losses or sessions, especially when they don't seem to care about money, period?

Maybe one day he will run us through the intricacies of explaining massive winnings to the IRS while not losing his overall advantage.

Or maybe we will have to buy the book.

I discount the possibility that he is deceiving us or the IRS.

$:o)

Quote: ChumpChange

I was asking the owner of the stacks of cash in the photos above.

OK...that wasn't clear to me since you referred to MDawg in the third person (he) as though you were asking somebody else, rather than asking MDawg himself where you would have used the second person (you).

Like this...the much more straightforward "So how much did you tell the IRS you won last year?"

As Ratso Rizzo said, "That's a matter I only talk about at confession." Or in my case, at tax time. With my CPA.

Quote: OnceDear

Maybe one day he will run us through the intricacies of explaining massive winnings to the IRS while not losing his overall advantage.

What are you getting at here?

What overall advantage has he claimed?

How would explaining winnings to the IRS affect that advantage?

Just giving you an opportunity to brag about a year of action.

Quote: coachbelly

What are you getting at here?

What overall advantage has he claimed?

How would explaining winnings to the IRS affect that advantage?

I think you need to read back a bit to see his claims. He reads patterns in Baccarat hands and just knows how to use them to his advantage to be long term profitable player. He has money management strategies to stop him making the mistakes of mere foolish mortals.

He's also remarkably rich anyway, but he doesn't like to brag.

I expect the record keeping that he should/must do to satisfy the IRS would be pretty onerous to a mere mortal like me. But then I'm lucky enough to not have to bother. Maybe I overestimate how complex such tax matters are for a guy who can be down or up many thousands for any session. Maybe his entourage handle all that trivia.

Quote: OnceDear

Maybe one day he will run us through the intricacies of explaining massive winnings to the IRS while not losing his overall advantage.

Quote: coachbelly

How would explaining winnings to the IRS affect that advantage?

Quote: OnceDear

Maybe I overestimate how complex such tax matters are for a guy who can be down or up many thousands for any session. Maybe his entourage handle all that trivia.

Are you suggesting that the tax bookkeeping would be so complex that it would affect his playing focus, that it would distract him or constrain him from playing?

Quote: OnceDear

I think you need to read back a bit to see his claims.

I read back this far, are there any other more current pertinent sentiments?

Quote: MDawg

do I have some method to win at Baccarat some - special technique that is teachable? No, I do not, nor have I ever claimed to.

Quote: coachbelly

Are you suggesting that the tax bookkeeping would be so complex that it would affect his playing focus, that it would distract him or constrain him from playing?

No and No.

Quote: coachbelly

I read back this far, are there any other more current pertinent sentiments?

Go back further. I spend enough time reading the posts one time.

Sadly, not all of MDawg's posts are in his adventure thread.
I recall a post like this... Not this, but like it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33669-betting-on-streaks/6/#post740990

Not that post, but one like it where he said something like "If you couldn't see and profit from the streaks in that shoe, you are beyond hope"

I may seek that post out one day, or maybe someone will correct me in my interpretation. For now, I'm bored with this.

Believe what you will, Interpret how you will. DYOR.

Quote: coachbelly

Are you suggesting that the tax bookkeeping would be so complex that it would affect his playing focus, that it would distract him or constrain him from playing?

Quote: OnceDear

No and No.

Then what are you implying here?...how would the bookkeeping affect his playing strategy?

Quote: OnceDear

Maybe one day he will run us through the intricacies of explaining massive winnings to the IRS while not losing his overall advantage.

Quote: coachbelly

Then what are you implying here?...how would the bookkeeping affect his playing strategy?

Did I say that?
I thought I implied that there might be a tax burden, imposed by absurd IRS rules, that caused the ebb and flow of his wagering/bankroll to either impose upon him onerous reporting requirements, or some tax to pay that would reduce his profitability.
But. I admit that my knowledge of his tax affairs, and your nation's tax regs is less than minimal.

ps I was editing my post above as CB was posting

What I will say and will defend to the end, is that for the true Baccarat player there are good shoes and bad shoes.

A good shoe such as the one I got today that helped me win six grand and my friend win ninety-five grand. Or a good shoe such as the ones that whales use to clock the house for millions.

A Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips will always win when presented with a good shoe. There is a certain degree of luck and other factors involved such as what his initial bet unit happens to be during the sweet spots, the runs or streaks, of these good shoes, how he presses and so on, but give MDawg a good Bacc. shoe and he will always win money. I have posted images of some of those good shoes in this thread, and I have been presented with some of those good shoes recently during this trip.

Whether I've just been lucky enough to get more of these good shoes than bad shoes during my gambling life, or whether I have developed the sense to realize whether I am in the midst of a good or bad shoe and back off if bad, press if good, is a matter for interpretation.

Quote: MDawg

What I will say and will defend to the end, is that for the true Baccarat player there are good shoes and bad shoes.

Correct...and he will know that after the shoe has been dealt....unless of course he has those new fangled X-Ray vision glasses.

Quote: MDawg

A Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips will always win when presented with a good shoe.

Um....I'm going to suggest any color chip will win....when presented with a "good shoe."

keep on trucking...

It's all entertaining.

Quote: OnceDear

Maybe one day he will run us through the intricacies of explaining massive winnings to the IRS while not losing his overall advantage.

Quote: OnceDear

some tax to pay that would reduce his profitability.

What do you mean by "overall advantage" ?

Do you mean that losing an overall advantage = reduced profitability ?

Or do you mean that losing an overall advantage = loss ?

If you have to pay 33% of your winnings to the tax man, you have to figure out a way to win 3 to 2 sessions.

Quote: ChumpChange

If you have to pay 33% of your winnings to the tax man, you have to figure out a way to win 3 to 2 sessions.

That would depend on how much you win or lose in each session.

The amounts won/lost for each session wouldn't necessarily be equal.

If I buy-in for $10K, I'd have a win goal of $40K, On a winning session, after $10K was set aside for the tax man, I'd have triple my buy-in instead of quadruple, and be up $20K after taxes.

Quote: ChumpChange

If I buy-in for $10K, I'd have a win goal of $40K, On a winning session, after $10K was set aside for the tax man, I'd have triple my buy-in instead of quadruple, and be up $20K after taxes.

Does your win goal of $40K mean that you win $40K or win $30K?

Sounds like you mean winning $30K, then set aside $10K for taxes and be up $20K.

3 winning sessions = +$60K. 2 losing sessions = -$20K.

That's +40K after 3 wins & 2 losses...plus a portion of the $30K back that you set aside for taxes.

Quote: MDawg

What I will say and will defend to the end, is that for the true Baccarat player there are good shoes and bad shoes.

A good shoe such as the one I got today that helped me win six grand and my friend win ninety-five grand. Or a good shoe such as the ones that whales use to clock the house for millions.

A Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips will always win when presented with a good shoe. There is a certain degree of luck and other factors involved such as what his initial bet unit happens to be during the sweet spots, the runs or streaks, of these good shoes, how he presses and so on, but give MDawg a good Bacc. shoe and he will always win money. I have posted images of some of those good shoes in this thread, and I have been presented with some of those good shoes recently during this trip.

Whether I've just been lucky enough to get more of these good shoes than bad shoes during my gambling life, or whether I have developed the sense to realize whether I am in the midst of a good or bad shoe and back off if bad, press if good, is a matter for interpretation.

Whats your definition of a "good shoe"?

The person betting on the opposite side would almost certainly call it a "bad shoe"

....Winning from $10K to $40K for an upside of $30K.

Normally my sessions are double or nothing. So I'd win $10K 3 times, then raise my buy-in to $15K for 2 sessions. Then win $15K 4 times for another $60K, and split that to 3x $20K buy-ins. Has nothing to do with taxes until I hit the table max and I keep repeating the same sessions over and over. Then I have to win 3 sessions and use one to pay taxes.

But if my win goals are quadrupling my session buy-ins, I could raise my buy-in by $5K after each of the 1st & 2nd session win without a loss.

Quote: ChumpChange

....Winning from $10K to $40K for an upside of $30K.

Normally my sessions are double or nothing. So I'd win $10K 3 times, then raise my buy-in to $15K for 2 sessions. Then win $15K 4 times for another $60K, and split that to 3x $20K buy-ins. Has nothing to do with taxes until I hit the table max and I keep repeating the same sessions over and over. Then I have to win 3 sessions and use one to pay taxes.

But if my win goals are quadrupling my session buy-ins, I could raise my buy-in by $5K after each of the 1st & 2nd session win without a loss.

I’m still trying to figure out if you’re mocking Mdawg or you’re serious.

I was hoping MDawg would say something like "I've won 60 sessions for a profit of $360,000, and I've lost 50 sessions for a loss of $100,000, for a net win of $260,000 before taxes."

DarkO asked something about what is a bad shoe or what about the guys who bet the opposite side on a good shoe? He's a writer now, right? so he should be a good reader (although, I thought he was a projectionist, not a writer?) and if he read what I wrote there is no need for such a question.

If you're not a true Baccarat player you won't be able to follow a shoe and you won't win. For example I had a friend who always bet player, when he did bet and didn't even bet every hand. He lost a lot. And I've come across people who bet only bank, and bet every hand, even if it is not a banker's shoe. They lose over time too.

Anyway, the proof is in the pudding. MDawg wins.

If there were no such thing as a good shoe there would not be sessions where high rollers clock the house for millions.

Quote: MDawg

What I will say and will defend to the end, is that for the true Baccarat player there are good shoes and bad shoes.

A good shoe such as the one I got today that helped me win six grand and my friend win ninety-five grand. Or a good shoe such as the ones that whales use to clock the house for millions.

A Baccarat player worth his weight in black chips will always win when presented with a good shoe. There is a certain degree of luck and other factors involved such as what his initial bet unit happens to be during the sweet spots, the runs or streaks, of these good shoes, how he presses and so on, but give MDawg a good Bacc. shoe and he will always win money. I have posted images of some of those good shoes in this thread, and I have been presented with some of those good shoes recently during this trip.

Whether I've just been lucky enough to get more of these good shoes than bad shoes during my gambling life, or whether I have developed the sense to realize whether I am in the midst of a good or bad shoe and back off if bad, press if good, is a matter for interpretation.

Quote: MDawg

DarkO asked something about what is a bad shoe or what about the guys who bet the opposite side on a good shoe? He's a writer now, right? so he should be a good reader (although, I thought he was a projectionist, not a writer?) and if he read what I wrote there is no need for such a question.

If you're not a true Baccarat player you won't be able to follow a shoe and you won't win. For example I had a friend who always bet player, when he did bet and didn't even bet every hand. He lost a lot. And I've come across people who bet only bank, and bet every hand, even if it is not a banker's shoe. They lose over time too.

Anyway, the proof is in the pudding. MDawg wins.

If there were no such thing as a good shoe there would not be sessions where high rollers clock the house for millions.

I was never a projectionist in a movie theater lol

I was a negative cutter and splicer handling hundred million dollar original camera negatives on major Hollywood motion pictures like Pirates of the Caribbean.

The switch to digital shut that business down.

would the mod who awarded this thread 3 gold stars care to identify him or herself and explain the logic behind that?



seems pretty strange to me since the thread is dominated by nonsense

There are some of us out there really living life, and sharing our high volume experiences. That might bother some, not others.

We went to one of the nicest restaurants at this casino last night, was packed with CES tech types. Very loud conversation.

On the way there we stopped by high limit because I wanted to say hello and introduce my wife to my friend, and my friend's chips were there under the plexiglass, she had about twenty grand out. She plays daily, and was taking a break, which she does often. When she leaves the table she doesn't take her chips with her just leaves them under a plexiglass cover. I do the same sometimes.

Seriously last night when she had a hundred and twenty grand out that she had just won (back) after getting as low as twenty five, all those chips looked pretty impressive. I have had wins in that neighborhood in the old days, but I accumulated over a period of days, such that I was culling a small stack of "melons" ($25K chips, also called "pumpkins" but I called them melons since my penthouse at Bellagio at that time had melons on the wallpaper, and I was professing kinship in winning, with my room decor), and somehow a stack of even eleven melons, which is what I ended up with that trip, just didn't look as impressive as all the stacks of yellow chips she had in front of her yesterday, especially knowing that she had just won 95 of them on just that one shoe we played together.

Quote: MDawg

There are some of us out there really living life, and sharing our high volume experiences. That might bother some, not others.

I asked for an answer from the mods - not you

when considering the value of your words the title of an old movie comes to mind:


𝑳𝑬𝑺𝑺 𝑻𝑯𝑨𝑵 𝒁𝑬𝑹𝑶

In the meantime I seem to occupy a great deal of your thinking, and you bolster the status and rating of my thread with comments.

There is no such thing as bad press!

Quote: lilredrooster

would the mod who awarded this thread 3 gold stars care to identify him or herself and explain the logic behind that?

seems pretty strange to me since the thread is dominated by nonsense

Correct me if I am wrong, but the number of 'stars' a thread has is based on votes by the members. Any member can vote, but most seldom or never do. The rating is just an average of the voting.

Look for the "rate this thread" link just under the title of the thread in the upper left of the screen. Select a star rating from the dropdown, and click the button. Rock the Vote!

ETA: Kudos for this site for offering a 0 star rating option. Most other sites (I'm looking at you, Amazon!) have 1 star as the lowest rating option. This makes the ratings seem artificially high as 3 stars represents "average" instead of 2.5 stars.

'Flags,' 'melons' and other high-dollar Vegas chips you'll never see - Las Vegas Weekly
https://lasvegasweekly.com/blogs/cleverboy/2013/oct/12/flags-melons-and-other-high-dollar-chips-youll-nev/

The one chip I never got my hands on was the steel gray 100,000 chip at Bellagio. During that trip after I had accumulated over two hundred grand in melons, I tried to get one, both at the Baccarat table and at the cage. I was refused. They said, We'll give you one if you want to bet it, not just to hold.

I recall one dealer telling me that the 100,000 chips are the prettiest thing you will ever see in your life. Well, I don't know about THAT, but casino gaming wise, I might agree!

My limits at casinos have always been standard ones, which at that time the limit at Baccarat was $15,000. (these days $20,000.) so I don't know if what they were saying was that they were willing to raise my limit for that trip since I had won so much, or if they were just giving me an excuse for not coloring me up. Plus, even though I ended up with close to three hundred grand in winnings at Bellagio alone, that is not enough to get your limits raised much, even if I had deposited it all at the cage instead of walking around with ever increasing stacks of melons. I think with a $250K line you might be able to bet $25K or $30K per hand max, and I know that back then friends of mine with million dollar lines were able to bet $50K per hand, which still, is only about 3X the normal limits of any player.

There is also a difference between limits for credit line players, and cash deposit (front money) players. While a million line may get you a $50K per hand limit, I knew of a guy back then who wired in $5M (and lost it all) at Baccarat, who was allowed to bet no more than $50K a hand. In other words, a credit line will get you a higher pro rata bet limit compared to front money, probably because they figure that a credit line will or at least should get the casino repeated chances at that sum of money, while front money might end up being a one time thing.

There was a period when the Rio, before Harrah's bought them, would allow anyone off the street to bet $100K on Baccarat. Once Harrah's took over, the limits went way down.


I actually used to bet more when I had less, although that doesn't make a lot of sense. Back then, I'd bet fifteen grand a hand regularly, at least a few times a session, and nowadays, not so much. Part of the reason might be that long hiatus from gaming that gave me more time to reflect on the value of money. Part of the reason might just be that the richer you get, the more conservative you get. Sometimes anyway.

In any case I'm pretty f'ing happy that this trip is turning out to generate some decent winnings. Anything under five figures for a multi-day trip, I mean - that's nowhere! 😆Onwards to the next resort, LATER TODAY!

Quote: MDawg

What I will say and will defend to the end, is that for the true Baccarat player there are good shoes and bad shoes.

I would be very interested the difference between a good shoe ad bad shoe. It seems to me all shoes are the same just did the player make the right be or wrong one. A skilled Bac player would just bet the other side and make it a good shoe.

Quote: DRich

I would be very interested the difference between a good shoe ad bad shoe. It seems to me all shoes are the same just did the player make the right be or wrong one. A skilled Bac player would just bet the other side and make it a good shoe.

Count your chips at the start of the shoe and at the end of the shoe. Duh. :-)

Quote: lilredrooster

would the mod who awarded this thread 3 gold stars care to identify him or herself and explain the logic behind that?

seems pretty strange to me since the thread is dominated by nonsense

Don't look at me :o) What makes you think a mod gave it 3*?
If I rated it, it would have been an appropriate score, not a 3. Interesting that I don't see the 'rate thread' option. I guess that means I voted.

A good Bacc shoe is one that fits and comes in a pair.

Do Bacc players take two spots when the count is good?

The secret is to always go Bacc to the future

Do they do Bacc testing?

Anyone know if casinos reshuffle when a “Good shoe” for the players comes up like they do in BJ when the count favors the player?

Quote: Boz

Anyone know if casinos reshuffle when a “Good shoe” for the players comes up like they do in BJ when the count favors the player?

yes and they bring in a new dealer in the middle of a shoe to disrupt the flow of the cards - they try not to let the cards keep flowing good

but the true bacc pros are able to compensate and adjust to the disrupted flow




and the absolute worst feeling is when the PB taps you on the shoulder and tells you you can't play bacc here anymore - you get trespassed

they know you're just too good

Quote: DRich

I would be very interested the difference between a good shoe ad bad shoe.

I recall MDawg making that distinction several times, and also providing screen shots demonstrating good and bad shoes.

MDawg has explained that good shoes are those that contain recognizable patterns, and especially...long streaks.

My understanding is that his strategy is primarily to press into streaks, so that if a substantial streak occurs he'll be pressing up his bet for the duration of the streak.

He hasn't claimed to be able to predict whether or not a shoe WILL be good or bad, only to reflect on whether or not a shoe HAS been good or bad...primarily based on the streaks.

Am I correct in my assessment?

Waiting for host to clean up the bill, comp off all the food and maybe some of my wife's spa charges, although given that I won and actually didn't play a huge amount of hours for a six night stay (more than a few hit and run sessions), I am not hopeful about the spa this time. At the prior resort all the spa was comp'ed off based on huge play from a few months prior.

The two times that I took a break from play yesterday and the day before, my friend who plays huge here but is a local got a comp ticket for the restaurant for us, and the first day since my wife didn't want to join she made sure the ticket was large enough to cover take-out that I carried upstairs to the suite. It seems like a throwback to the old days, where the pit boss "throws you a comp ticket," but then, there has to be some system still in place to comp players who are not in house? She also gets a daily massage and for that she texts her host to comp it. I mentioned to her that she must have nearly "unlimited" comps given the level she plays at and in that she isn't even staying in house. I was seeing her play average hands in the five to seven thousand dollar range, with many fifteen to twenty thousand dollar bets.