My sports bet tracking
Quote: michael99000Many online books will cut off steam players. Especially if it’s the only action they’re putting in. If a player is consistently getting a bet in seconds before the line steams, they recognize that pattern. I get the feeling that if you do that AND middle your bets , it might come across even worse.
If you’re say $100 a game player and your constantly risking $10 to win $200 that a game falls within a 9 point window , you’re probably of no value to the book.
The other reason not to middle would be you’d be turning potential wins into break evens. if RSA can hit at 60% consistently you might just want to find a book that allows steam plays and place only the initial bet on each pick
Do you have any idea why RAS prohibits players from betting at a handful of websites? I was having trouble coming up with a potential reason for that.
That makes sense on the reasons not to middle, but if using an online book and you wanted to middle it, I’d imagine you would have a proxy to put in the desired bet on the other side.
However, I do take your point that one might be better off just to use the picks that they are selling you rather than try to middle given the win rate.
some get luckyQuote: 7craps76ers are 14-0 at home this year (last undefeated home team)
and are 1-0 against Miami at home (blowout win)
Miami 8-7 on the road.
IF one team can beat 76ers at home, that is Miami
MIAMI WINS
the OP wants NO LUCK
keeps making -ev bets
some call it entertainment
red columns are total after lost bets
bets and total
On RAS: They have been verified by third parties. Last time I checked on them out of curiosity a few years ago, they were mostly selling picks with a roughly $30 value for $18, for anyone who could bet the lines. It was almost all second half college totals. Someone paying for their picks had the chance to get down $500 before the line would move. And there was no guarantee they could do that, because someone else might beat them. Looks like they are up to selling for a little over $30, but not sure about the value. No idea what Edward and those guys are up to now, but about 10 years ago, they definitely had significant action on the picks they were giving out. And whatever money they were making on selling the picks, it had to have been less than what they were earning working with guys bet the picks with them -- or else he wouldn't have been getting their money down before giving out the picks.
Quote: unJonThis thread just got interesting again.
Jeez....He took a bad beat tonight.
Rough game. Philly had a big early lead and surrendered all of it and then some by halftime. I knew at that moment it was going to be a tough game for Philly. Miami led the entire 2nd half although Philly got it down to 2 and had a shot at a 3 pointer with seconds left. Not to be.
While there may have been signs Philly was due for their first clunker at home....bad timing for the resident handicapper.
Quote: TomGThis got really weird. I like this TD guy.
Thanks. Like anyone else, I have my opinions and ideas. No offense to anyone. I take nothing personally, within reason ;-) All good.
Quote: Mission146I like Scoblete better, but I don't know if he does sports or not. Scoblete is very friendly and funny, used to post here a lot, you know.
Funny story on Frank. I know this guy referenced in his article. Frank wrote about meeting one of his "fans". LOL.
Classically funny read.
http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/article/i-am-a-big-shot-65640
what does one expect by making a -ev wager?Quote: TDVegasJeez....He took a bad beat tonight.
or hundreds of them in a row?
Maimi uses its zone defence when the coach wants a change of pace.
The 76ers could not even handle it
they looked like a high school team playing a pro team, imo
college teams handle the 2-3 zone with no problems.
Quote: 7crapswhat does one expect by making a -ev wager?
or hundreds of them in a row?
Maimi uses its zone defence when the coach wants a change of pace.
The 76ers could not even handle it
they looked like a high school team playing a pro team, imo
college teams handle the 2-3 zone with no problems.
I’m only referencing the fact that Philly was undefeated at home. Bad time for a loss.
He’s using a negative progression play. We ALL know what is going to happen eventually. It’s a certainty or as close as you can get.
This thread is entertaining but I don’t really put any faith in the idea that true handicapping is being done. There is likely some "system handicapping"...ie, gambler fallacy methods. See a 5, bet a 5.
The 500 lb. gorilla in the room?....even though he still has bankroll after 4 months? He’s making nothing.
Good luck to him....but he needs more than luck to make this work.
Quote: DeMangoGreat fiction writer. When Grandma had her roll, nationwide publicity. When admiral had his roll....crickets. 18 yo’s in a row.....more crickets.
One look at Dom’s sports betting site and the utter carnival barking going on....
I’m not surprised there is a story of 18 yo’s in a row.
he probably would’ve won today , but no pick.
Christmas break?
Quote: michael99000You wouldn’t be able to do it.
RSA is selling steam plays. I have a few friends who’ve used the service. They text you the pick and you literally have about 20-30 seconds to get the bet in. Luckily there’s a consistent time of day the text goes out so you can make yourself free and available to get the bet in when the time comes.
They pick a lot of small college games and totals. I’ve seen them send out a pick of let’s say over 128.5 in a college hoops game and within a minute the line is 137 everywhere. And then Usually in the next 10 minutes it creeps up another point or so, and then between that point and the game it crawls lower by 3-4 points. That’s because either people who got the 128.5 are middling, or sharps are just taking advantage of the overreaction upwards.
But if you get your bet in fast enough from when RSA sends it out, you’ll consistently have a better number then the closing line.
This is very accurate on how RAS operates. Incredibly successful, lines moving a lot. If you're 10 seconds too late to react to the text, the line is long gone.
Quote: SM777This is very accurate on how RAS operates. Incredibly successful, lines moving a lot. If you're 10 seconds too late to react to the text, the line is long gone.
If they are sending out a last minute pick at over 128.5....then the player can only get 137, how does anyone know if the bet was made at 128.5? I assume he provides a back up that he was ACTUALLY able to make the bet at that number and he’s not just throwing the number out there.
Quote: TDVegasIf they are sending out a last minute pick at over 128.5....then the player can only get 137, how does anyone know if the bet was made at 128.5? I assume he provides a back up that he was ACTUALLY able to make the bet at that number and he’s not just throwing the number out there.
Who is the “he” you are referring to ?
RAS doesn’t necessarily bet on their plays. They might but that doesn’t matter. You can find the opening line for any game on any sports betting website. VegasInsider for example.
When RAS send out their pick, the line is what they say it is. But then you have 1000s of people all logging into their betting accounts at once and betting the same thing. So the line jumps very quickly.
Quote: TDVegasIf they are sending out a last minute pick at over 128.5....then the player can only get 137, how does anyone know if the bet was made at 128.5? I assume he provides a back up that he was ACTUALLY able to make the bet at that number and he’s not just throwing the number out there.
I'm on board with this being a troll account.
Quote: michael99000Who is the “he” you are referring to ?
RAS doesn’t necessarily bet on their plays. They might but that doesn’t matter. You can find the opening line for any game on any sports betting website. VegasInsider for example.
When RAS send out their pick, the line is what they say it is. But then you have 1000s of people all logging into their betting accounts at once and betting the same thing. So the line jumps very quickly.
The line is not what they (RAS) say. The line is what the bookie will take the wager at.
Opening line is meaningless. If he’s throwing a bet out there at 1:29pm and saying “over 128.5”....how the hell does the bettor ever know if RAS could even secure a bet at that line??
Lines are dynamic.
Who wants a service that is predicated on a “whack a mole” type quick bet response? Then when no one can get the line he offered....he says what? That’s too bad?
I would want to know if anyone is getting the line he says to bet. Do his customers say they got the bet in at that line?
Quote: SM777I'm on board with this being a troll account.
And you can shit can the troll account accusation. Tiresome and uncalled for. If you don’t want to respond....then don’t.
Quote: TDVegasThe line is not what they (RAS) say. The line is what the bookie will take the wager at.
Opening line is meaningless. If he’s throwing a bet out there at 1:29pm and saying “over 128.5”....how the hell does the bettor ever know if RAS could even secure a bet at that.
Because I know people who subscribe to the service, and every single time a pick is texted to them, and they logged in to their betting account , the line is what RAS said it was.
You'd be surprised at the source that story came from. First it was the same person that swore up and down multiple times (he even offered a bet on it, and have multiple opportunities to retract the statement) his son hit five single line Royal flushes in one day and still lost. The winning or losing part was pretty much meaningless, either way. I was 100% sure his son didn't hit 5 Royals in a day. I wasn't going to take a bet of that size knowing evidence could be easily faked. Quite some time went by and his son said he only hit two(perhaps 3) legitimate Royals in one day.Quote: TDVegasOne look at Dom’s sports betting site and the utter carnival barking going on....
I’m not surprised there is a story of 18 yo’s in a row.
When it comes to gambling some people be crazy and make all kinds of crap up in their mind. Some people even produced fake pictures or real pictures of fake things.
Quote: TDVegasThe line is not what they (RAS) say. The line is what the bookie will take the wager at.
Do you have a single example of RAS giving out lines that are not widely available? Or are you just trying to play "what if this?" and "what about that?" in an attempt to cram in as many logical fallacies as possible?
I don't much about RAS, however, if a multitude of people are signed up and only a few people can get down action before the line moves to where a large majority of the people no longer have an advantage it seems a little scammy to me.Quote: TomGDo you have a single example of RAS giving out lines that are not widely available? Or are you just trying to play "what if this?" and "what about that?" in an attempt to cram in as many logical fallacies as possible?
Quote: AxelWolfI don't much about RAS, however, if a multitude of people are signed up and only a few people can get down action before the line moves to where a large majority of the people no longer have an advantage it seems a little scammy to me.
They are straightforward with what it takes to use their information to earn money. Most anyone who works with them knows what the deal.
Quote: mcallister3200The entire reason any tout business is entirely unsustainable for consumer value even if the occasional service provided value at one time. And it takes next to nothing to move a college basketball line.
I would agree.
My guess is they have decent years and bad years. Decent months and bad months. Good streaks and bad streaks. When you factor in the extremely high cost of the service...you're not making consistent bank and likely ending up on the short end. The king of handicappers, Billy Walters, who didn't sell anything...only claimed 56%, which is only 3.6% above break even.
Regardless, I wouldn't take the word of any service that self certifies their success. I would want to see a time stamp/block chain of picks and results that can be independently verified. I see nothing in that realm from these guys. There are MANY reports of players not being able to get the odds offered...even from those who were at their computer the second the pick was released. That alone raises big red flags on claimed success percentages.
Where is the handicapper of this thread? 10 days without a pick. Wondering if he's "re-tooling" the system. That's a long time for a handicapper to go with nary a pick.
Quote: AxelWolfYou'd be surprised at the source that story came from. First it was the same person that swore up and down multiple times (he even offered a bet on it, and have multiple opportunities to retract the statement) his son hit five single line Royal flushes in one day and still lost. The winning or losing part was pretty much meaningless, either way. I was 100% sure his son didn't hit 5 Royals in a day. I wasn't going to take a bet of that size knowing evidence could be easily faked. Quite some time went by and his son said he only hit two(perhaps 3) legitimate Royals in one day.
When it comes to gambling some people be crazy and make all kinds of crap up in their mind. Some people even produced fake pictures or real pictures of fake things.
I've seen the faked pictures numerous times. It's not difficult to see that the gambling business breeds a LOT of fake claims. Hell...look at the handicapping business. You go to sports centric gambling forums...everyone and their brother claim they are beating the odds. It's not difficult to see the transition of many to "selling" services.
Your guess is entirely meaningless. You could go see the data but choose not to.Quote: TDVegasI would agree.
My guess is they have decent years and bad years. Decent months and bad months. Good streaks and bad streaks. When you factor in the extremely high cost of the service...you're not making consistent bank and likely ending up on the short end.
Quote: TDVegas
Regardless, I wouldn't take the word of any service that self certifies their success. I would want to see a time stamp/block chain of picks and results that can be independently verified. I see nothing in that realm from these guys. There are MANY reports of players not being able to get the odds offered...even from those who were at their computer the second the pick was released. That alone raises big red flags on claimed success percentages.
Where is the handicapper of this thread? 10 days without a pick. Wondering if he's "re-tooling" the system. That's a long time for a handicapper to go with nary a pick.
This post reminds me a lot of SingleCoinVP, but single track mind on sports tours rather than well single coin VP.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't much about RAS, however, if a multitude of people are signed up and only a few people can get down action before the line moves to where a large majority of the people no longer have an advantage it seems a little scammy to me.
RAS addresses this very topic on their website. They definitely don't hide the difficulty in getting the line they release because it moves so quickly. And they go out of their way to text you a couple minutes before a play is released to be ready.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't much about RAS, however, if a multitude of people are signed up and only a few people can get down action before the line moves to where a large majority of the people no longer have an advantage it seems a little scammy to me.
The line they say to bet it at is available , you just have to get your bet in very quickly.
To those ready to say “I told you so” I said from the beginning that I know systems should not work. If I fail when the money is trivial, I save myself real losses if I put a bankroll behind it. SportsPlays numbers were not faked, I can screenshot a 216-86-3 record over the last calendar year. (They only show the past year’s record.) Maybe I got lucky picking 71% winners. Maybe I got unlucky with this recent losing streak. Maybe the free bonus money skewed the results. As posted previously, I was testing publicly to ensure I wasn’t in some way influencing the process.
I will be back. As promised I will see this to the end.
And therein lies the rub. Just keep tweaking and testing until you just happened to go on a lucky run and now you think you have something again. You'll feel the need to test that, but eventually that will fail too.Quote: es330tdI am looking at my process and methodology and deciding if I need to make any changes.
Rinse and repeat.
Meanwhile you could be using that time on legitimate methods that actually work.
Do yourself a favor, don't get stuck on these pipe dreams, it's a slippery slope.
Quote: es330td
As promised I will see this to the end.
You already did.
ZCore13
Quote: es330tdMaybe I got lucky picking 71% winners.
Looking over your bet history documented on this thread, it looks like the average odds you layed on a game was around -275.
A $100/game bettor picking 71% winners would be down $875. So I wouldn’t say picking 71% was lucky at the juice you were laying.
I think the problem is, if you’re sticking to a heavy juice chase, there’s no tweaking you can do that’s going to help you avoid the 4 straight losing bets that it takes to wipe you out.
Quote: IndyJeffreySo...can wagering on sports be profitable over the long run? Let's assume micro-bets so we take the 'you win too much, so we're banning you' out of the equation. Thoughts?
In theory of course! Remember, the books establish a line hoping to get half the money on each side. NOT to make the outcome of the event an even bet.
The problem is do you have enough information and ability to determine when a line gives value OVER the vig on one side? Supposedly there are those that do have that skill.
If you are just a guy who watches a lot of sports and 'is sure' team x will beat team y because of blah blah blah, you will likely fail.
If you are a guy who noticed that over the last 1000 NFL games where the second wide receiver was injured and didn't play that team only covered 45% of the time, you may have the ability.
Quote: es330tdJust letting everyone know that despite my losses I have not disappeared. I am looking at my process and methodology and deciding if I need to make any changes.
To those ready to say “I told you so” I said from the beginning that I know systems should not work. If I fail when the money is trivial, I save myself real losses if I put a bankroll behind it. SportsPlays numbers were not faked, I can screenshot a 216-86-3 record over the last calendar year. (They only show the past year’s record.) Maybe I got lucky picking 71% winners. Maybe I got unlucky with this recent losing streak. Maybe the free bonus money skewed the results. As posted previously, I was testing publicly to ensure I wasn’t in some way influencing the process.
I will be back. As promised I will see this to the end.
I don't think you will change anything. The way you bet now is the way you will continue to do so. I believe in your mind you still feel the big favourites are the way to go. It worked on paper so it will work again or so you think. I will be interested in seeing if you do in fact change things up, but I don't think so. Good luck in your future bets.
Then ask yourself, are my bets -EV or+ EV? Not, are my bets more likely to win or lose? I think that is where you get fooled. All of your bets were more likely to win than lose, but each individual bet was a bad bet. If you were just betting even money events (NFL lines, Over/Unders, NBA lines, over/Unders, etc., it would have been clearer to you why bookies win and players lose, THE VIG.
But it is hard for us to see that laying 320 to win 100 on a given game is a bad bet, while if you magically could have laid 280 to win 100 it would have been a good bet.
If you find some formula that can take advantage of bad lines, then your bets would be + EV. But I don't think you are even trying to do that.
Read the lottery betting thread. Wizard and ksds have identified lines which often overestimate the chances of someone winning the lottery for a given drawing. Their bets are +EV. Once establishing that you actually are making + EV bets, they use Kelly formula to size their bets. It's a really interesting thread.
I was thinking the same thing before.Quote: SOOPOOYou seem refreshingly honest and humble, and hopefully willing to learn.
.
My plan in “tweaking” my system was to return to betting only on baseball. Unfortunately, COVID has completely changed that, and sports in general. Now that BLM and social justice has taken over sports I no longer feel that sports are a pure competition. There is a good chance I will simply quit this as no opportunities to bet will present themselves.
If this is the case, I will post my methodology and see what people think.
To those of you that respected my attempts to be honest, thank you.
