My sports bet tracking
Quote: DeMangoThat’ll piss off a few here!
No it won’t. Like the clowns who claim to beat craps, anyone with common sense knows it won’t pay off in the long run.
But keep hating.
Quote: BozNo it won’t. Like the clowns who claim to beat craps, anyone with common sense knows it won’t pay off in the long run.
But keep hating.
These craps dice influencers love to chime in when a new system comes around. They are so gullible on their own game , they think others must be legit too.
The betting method in this string has been exposed as a common losing progression chase method. Another losing effort.
ZCore13
Quote: TDVegasMiddling is one of his techniques. I don’t consider this really handicapping....but whatever.
His main play, according to what I’ve heard is that he likes in game wagering. As these odds are made on the fly....he looks for possible errors.
I would have more confidence that he’s trying to exploit this for gains rather than middling.
He does use a betting app....but I’m not sure if in game wagers are posted as quickly as they would be in the sports book. Whatever decision he makes....he has very little time to make it. It’s not my realm, but what math is he crunching on in game wagering to make an advantage bet?
It sounds more like “hunch” wagering.
He also likes NFL favorites. Prior to season, he wants a Super Bowl bet that focuses on teams he thinks will get a first round playoff bye.
How are you getting your information on how he bets? (You can answer as brief or as cryptically as necessary if you don't want to out any sources -- or in a private message). You seem to have a lot of information and a lot of gaps in the sort of bets he makes.
Live betting markets can move a lot very quickly. That is about the strongest evidence we can ever have that there can be a lot of value in it.
Quote: TomGHow are you getting your information on how he bets? (You can answer as brief or as cryptically as necessary if you don't want to out any sources -- or in a private message). You seem to have a lot of information and a lot of gaps in the sort of bets he makes.
Live betting markets can move a lot very quickly. That is about the strongest evidence we can ever have that there can be a lot of value in it.
He has disclosed this information publicly.....off the cuff, but publicly.
I've also seen a couple interviews. He casually disclosed his betting app usage...max bets according to him. Since those are likely in game wagers....the limits are probably low.
I'm in Vegas. He makes himself available here and there for interviews on the subject. I have no special access, just what I've seen. Thru second hand info....I've heard a sports book director say "he wins some and loses some". Beyond that I have no idea on his long term success...or failure.
Jeopardy was his second stint on the game show circuit. His wife has also been on who wants to be a millionaire. I consider him a mathematical genius and....obviously a damn good game show contestant. Book of knowledge. Math will just take you so far. He's an encyclopedia as well.
Edit: I guess you always prepare ahead of time.
Running Balance: -4.65
Balance: 29.27
Sport: NBA
Game: Orlando @ Utah
Pick: Jazz-271
Wager: 9.90
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +3.65
Running Balance: -4.65
Balance: 29.27
Sport: NBA
Game: Orlando @ Utah
Pick: Jazz-271
Wager: 9.90
Good luck.
1. RAS sells winning picks, and their picks move markets. This is documented over a long term, and as noted their releases move the market due to their success. This is not debatable.
2. James is a very respected sports bettor by all major books. His claim to fame (whether it is public or not) was his monster win on the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL in 2008. I think whether books take his action is objective, as limiting him down to $100 or something is essentially that. But, when he bets futures they move big, and he's betting lots.
Quote: SM777I can absolutely confirm two things from inside the industry:
1. RAS sells winning picks, and their picks move markets. This is documented over a long term, and as noted their releases move the market due to their success. This is not debatable.
2. James is a very respected sports bettor by all major books. His claim to fame (whether it is public or not) was his monster win on the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL in 2008. I think whether books take his action is objective, as limiting him down to $100 or something is essentially that. But, when he bets futures they move big, and he's betting lots.
Of course it's debateable.
Why would they sell winning picks? Just make the wagers with their own money. It makes absolutely no sense to sell picks. It can only be a detriment....IF they are any good.
As long as they are posting their picks prior to game and not some after the fact press release that states how many won...I'll gladly track their action. I'm tracking one pay for picks guy this NFL season who claims "books shit in their pants when he shows up"
He's 43-54-1 this NFL season. So much for that.
On James...he might do ok....I don't know. No one really does unless they possess his complete betting history. I've only heard "he wins some and loses some". Other have heard different. Don't know for sure. Only he knows. AFAIK, he doesn't sell his picks....so he has that credibility factor on his side.
On RAS....eh. Like all of them, you hear good and you hear bad. A pro handicapper makes his own bets and does NOT offer them up for sale, IMO.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/ras-right-angle-sports-has-lost-4-weeks-row-1690412/
Quote: TDVegasOf course it's debateable.
Why would they sell winning picks? Just make the wagers with their own money. It makes absolutely no sense to sell picks. It can only be a detriment....IF they are any good.
As long as they are posting their picks prior to game and not some after the fact press release that states how many won...I'll gladly track their action. I'm tracking one pay for picks guy this NFL season who claims "books shit in their pants when he shows up"
He's 43-54-1 this NFL season. So much for that.
On James...he might do ok....I don't know. No one really does unless they possess his complete betting history. I've only heard "he wins some and loses some". Other have heard different. Don't know for sure. Only he knows. AFAIK, he doesn't sell his picks....so he has that credibility factor on his side.
On RAS....eh. Like all of them, you hear good and you hear bad. A pro handicapper makes his own bets and does NOT offer them up for sale, IMO.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sports-betting/ras-right-angle-sports-has-lost-4-weeks-row-1690412/
No, it's not debatable. Not sure how to be any more clear than that. I have worked in the industry for over 10 years, it's a fact. Your generic theory may prove to be true about others, but RAS controls the market on NCAAB totals, is a long term, proven and document winner, and sells their picks at quite a high price.
I won't link a tout website here, they're all scum. But besides that, RAS is a long term winner, no fudging, and documented everything on their website. Without a doubt the only respected tout in the industry.
Quote: SM777No, it's not debatable. Not sure how to be any more clear than that. I have worked in the industry for over 10 years, it's a fact. Your generic theory may prove to be true about others, but RAS controls the market on NCAAB totals, is a long term, proven and document winner, and sells their picks at quite a high price.
I won't link a tout website here, they're all scum. But besides that, RAS is a long term winner, no fudging, and documented everything on their website. Without a doubt the only respected tout in the industry.
Stating something as "it's a fact" does not make it a fact here. Here, it's an opinion, a story, an anecdote that may be fact...or not. That's left up to the reader to decide. Not you for them.
I really don't believe any proven handicapper is selling his picks. RAS has problems with posting lines that cannot be bet. My guess is he has years he wins some and years he loses some. In both cases he makes money for himself by also selling his picks for profit.
Believe what you want. Documentation must be done by an independent 3rd party...not someone shilling for them nor them documenting for themselves...which is what you are saying they are doing on their website.
I'm not a believer that gambling +EV systems are sold...period. It's ludicrous to sell it. Unless it's fickle, on, off, loss, win. Then....by all means sell it. You make money whether it works or not each time.
Quote: SM777Okay then, you're wrong. Th]at's the end of it.
I almost think this is a troll account at this point.
+Ev gambling systems sold: tons of poker and blackjack books. Blackjack bootcamp (I believe). Poker training sites...
Let me guess, Phil Galfond and Doug Polk aren't actually winning poker players. They should come play in your local bar league poker tournement to prove it to you.
Touts are 99.9% frauds but a winning player might sell picks to: skip the hassle of getting bets down as a winning player, minimize variance, out of some other subjective preference, or whatever.
Anyway, it happens in very very few cases.
Quote: es330tdLast Result: +3.65
Running Balance: -4.65
Balance: 29.27
Sport: NBA
Game: Orlando @ Utah
Pick: Jazz-271
Wager: 9.90
right down to the wire....close game. I think the Jazz out scored them 18-4 in the final 22 points. Wasn't looking good with about 4 minutes left.
Quote: RigondeauxI almost think this is a troll account at this point.
+Ev gambling systems sold: tons of poker and blackjack books. Blackjack bootcamp (I believe). Poker training sites...
Let me guess, Phil Galfond and Doug Polk aren't actually winning poker players. They should come play in your local bar league poker tournement to prove it to you.
Touts are 99.9% frauds but a winning player might sell picks to: skip the hassle of getting bets down as a winning player, minimize variance, out of some other subjective preference, or whatever.
Anyway, it happens in very very few cases.
It's not a troll account. It's a real person in the business.
ZCore13
bets and total
Quote: Zcore13It's not a troll account. It's a real person in the business.
ZCore13
Think he meant TDVegas.
Quote: unJonThink he meant TDVegas.
Correct.
At a certain point, someone should say something that corresponds with reality just by chance.
Quote: RigondeauxCorrect.
At a certain point, someone should say something that corresponds with reality just by chance.
Reality?....the question stands and still hasn’t been answered. Why would a successful sports handicapper, making money from his picks...sell his picks to the public at large?
Use his own money, get rich and not waste his precious time having to manage a website, make sure his picks are given out in a timely manner, advertise himself, and everything else involved in running a handicapping service?
If these guys were any good....they don’t need marks paying them $30-$50-$100 per pick or whatever subscription. Stay under the radar, live off Vegas books and profit handsomely off your picks.
Is James Holzhauer selling his picks? Selling his handicapping abilities? Of course not. There’s no reason to.
Quote: TDVegasReality?....the question stands and still hasn’t been answered. Why would a successful sports handicapper, making money from his picks...sell his picks to the public at large?
Use his own money, get rich and not waste his precious time having to manage a website, make sure his picks are given out in a timely manner, advertise himself, and everything else involved in running a handicapping service?
If these guys were any good....they don’t need marks paying them $30-$50-$100 per pick or whatever subscription. Stay under the radar, live off Vegas books and profit handsomely off your picks.
Is James Holzhauer selling his picks? Selling his handicapping abilities? Of course not. There’s no reason to.
What does a successful sports handicapper make in a year? On average? How many years until the books start to limit him? What gymnastics does he do then to keep up his standard of living?
How much does RAS make selling picks?
Unless you have data on those questions, what’s your basis for saying a successful handicapper wouldn’t sell picks?
Would it surprise you to know that most successful sports handicappers are lucky to make mid six figures a year?
Would it surprise you to know that RAS revenue last year was in the millions?
Quote: unJonWhat does a successful sports handicapper make in a year? On average? How many years until the books start to limit him? What gymnastics does he do then to keep up his standard of living?
How much does RAS make selling picks?
Unless you have data on those questions, what’s your basis for saying a successful handicapper wouldn’t sell picks?
Would it surprise you to know that most successful sports handicappers are lucky to make mid six figures a year?
Would it surprise you to know that RAS revenue last year was in the millions?
He employs runners....that's what Billy Walters did.
RAS makes? No idea. No one does except the principal.
My basis is he has no need to. As it stands now with the proliferation of legal books....plenty of places to go. The M resort will take wagers up to $1,000,000 on an individual game.
Lucky to make $500,000/year? That's "lucky"....? Ok. He's a 1%'er at that level.
You did RAS tax return?
Quote: TDVegasHe employs runners....that's what Billy Walters did.
RAS makes? No idea. No one does except the principal.
My basis is he has no need to. As it stands now with the proliferation of legal books....plenty of places to go. The M resort will take wagers up to $1,000,000 on an individual game.
Lucky to make $500,000/year? That's "lucky"....? Ok. He's a 1%'er at that level.
You did RAS tax return?
I have no idea on any of the numbers. Just made them up. The point is you are asking a good question: can you make more as a tout with a good track record or as a better betting those games? You are assuming the answer is: as a better. But I haven’t seen any evidence that is true.
Quote: unJonI have no idea on any of the numbers. Just made them up. The point is you are asking a good question: can you make more as a tout with a good track record or as a better betting those games? You are assuming the answer is: as a better. But I haven’t seen any evidence that is true.
Well...my argument is that you aren't seeing any evidence because those guys are under the radar. They aren't selling, talking or otherwise marketing. They are quitely going about their business for years and years.
Billy Walters...who was really a king in terms of reputation as an ace handicapper only claimed a 57% win rate. 52.3% is break even. Some of these services are touting ridiculous winning percentages. Just ridiculous numbers.
By the time Walters was talking, he was already worth $60 million. He blew money faster than sailor on leave...which ultimately led to his downfall. He should have stuck with what he knew.
But, ultimately this all just people talking. Provide me an NFL seasons worth of picks from any handicapper of your choosing. I track a season. If I'm wrong and this guy is pulling down 60% or whatever he claims...I offer up my mea culpa. I was wrong. Kudos. Nice job. End of story.
Quote: TDVegasThe M resort will take wagers up to $1,000,000 on an individual game.
Lucky to make $500,000/year? That's "lucky"....? Ok. He's a 1%'er at that level.
You did RAS tax return?
Literal lol at "the m resort.". Wow.
He didn't mean lucky in the sense of favorable variance.
You've got someone who works in the industry telling you RAS moves lines. Rather than learn something you start jabbering about Billy Walters and tax returns.
This cannot be a real person.
Quote: RigondeauxLiteral lol at "the m resort.". Wow.
He didn't mean lucky in the sense of favorable variance.
You've got someone who works in the industry telling you RAS moves lines. Rather than learn something you start jabbering about Billy Walters and tax returns.
This cannot be a real person.
Again, this is all just talk. Provide a seasons worth of picks from anyone of your choosing, we track results for a season. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll admit as such. Money talks, bullshit walks. Let's see how one of your guys can pick the NFL or NBA or any sport of his choosing.
Beyond that demarcation line....this is nothing more than differing opinions. In other words...talk. Pick. Let's go.
And anyone posting a bet and line...since I'm in Vegas, that line better be available. If he says Pats -7 but every book is -9.....then he has to post a receipt showing he was able to get that -7 line. No scamming.
Running Balance: -1.00
Balance: 32.92
Sport: NBA
Game: Miami @ Philadelphia 11/18/19
Pick: 76’ers-297
Wager: 8.65
Quote: TDVegasWell...my argument is that you aren't seeing any evidence because those guys are under the radar. They aren't selling, talking or otherwise marketing. They are quitely going about their business for years and years.
Billy Walters...who was really a king in terms of reputation as an ace handicapper only claimed a 57% win rate. 52.3% is break even. Some of these services are touting ridiculous winning percentages. Just ridiculous numbers.
By the time Walters was talking, he was already worth $60 million. He blew money faster than sailor on leave...which ultimately led to his downfall. He should have stuck with what he knew.
But, ultimately this all just people talking. Provide me an NFL seasons worth of picks from any handicapper of your choosing. I track a season. If I'm wrong and this guy is pulling down 60% or whatever he claims...I offer up my mea culpa. I was wrong. Kudos. Nice job. End of story.
Check out SOOPOO’s record THIS YEAR on the WoV picks game. That genius (me) is easily exceeding 60%. DOCUMENTED.
Quote: SOOPOOCheck out SOOPOO’s record THIS YEAR on the WoV picks game. That genius (me) is easily exceeding 60%. DOCUMENTED.
You were 37% last year....according to last count posted.
We had someone at 61% last year.
Handicapping is about consistency...not one horrendous year followed up with above average. You post a 37%....you won't have a next year (clients) to pick for.
Quote: TDVegasYou were 37% last year....according to last count posted.
We had someone at 61% last year.
Handicapping is about consistency...not one horrendous year followed up with above average. You post a 37%....you won't have a next year (clients) to pick for.
Isn’t it ironic? Don’t‘cha think?
Quote: TDVegasYou were 37% last year....according to last count posted.
We had someone at 61% last year.
Handicapping is about consistency...not one horrendous year followed up with above average. You post a 37%....you won't have a next year (clients) to pick for.
I of course agree with you. I think my lifetime average on picking even money games is between 48 and 49%. But YOU keep saying show me one tout who is above 57%? or such for an NFL year.... and I say it is easy to find many who actually were.... just like I am this year..... by being lucky..... Even the 'expert' who shows me his winning record this or ANY one year means zero to me.
Quote: SOOPOOI of course agree with you. I think my lifetime average on picking even money games is between 48 and 49%. But YOU keep saying show me one tout who is above 57%? or such for an NFL year.... and I say it is easy to find many who actually were.... just like I am this year..... by being lucky..... Even the 'expert' who shows me his winning record this or ANY one year means zero to me.
Well, yeah, point taken. You are going to see decent years or seasons. We had one. They will also have intermixed in there mediocre and bad seasons. 52.3% is break even with the spread. A handicapper has to average higher because he's also charging you for picks. In the case of RAS....STEEP charges. Who knows...his win rate may have to be in excess of 55-56% just for the bettor to break even.
You see reports of disgruntled clients and clients who say it's working. That's generally how all services work. Throw 100 picks on one side.....100 on the other. You have 100 happy clients who bring you 2 more happy clients each. Gain 200, lose 100.
It's a nice racket.
76ers are 14-0 at home this year (last undefeated home team)Quote: es330tdSport: NBA
Game: Miami @ Philadelphia 11/18/19
Pick: 76’ers-297
Wager: 8.65
and are 1-0 against Miami at home (blowout win)
Miami 8-7 on the road.
IF one team can beat 76ers at home, that is Miami
Miami beat Dallas in Dallas (Sat) after Dallas lost their best player to injury (it went to overtime)
at a 74% win chance for 76ers, the wager is still -ev
current William Hill has 76ers -8 and -330
Quote: TDVegasYou were 37% last year....according to last count posted.
We had someone at 61% last year.
Handicapping is about consistency...not one horrendous year followed up with above average. You post a 37%....you won't have a next year (clients) to pick for.
303-262 for a winning percentage of 53.63% over a period of seven years where I MUST pick five games per week, one game per week can optionally be double-weighted and only one NFL week per season can be skipped.
2018 didn't count because I wasn't actually making my Picks, they were default (automatic) picks for a reason I can't remember. My picks are all documented.
You might be interested in the first section of my article here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-rundown/
Earlier you wrote (Quotes clipped for relevance)
Quote:Reality?....the question stands and still hasn’t been answered. Why would a successful sports handicapper, making money from his picks...sell his picks to the public at large?
Several possible reasons, if I am to play Devil's Advocate:
1.) He can't get money down anywhere, or can only get limited money down and doesn't want to set up a network.
2.) Picking well still carries with it risk whereas selling picks does not.
3.) Selling picks supplements the money already made from picking well.
Quote:Use his own money, get rich and not waste his precious time having to manage a website, make sure his picks are given out in a timely manner, advertise himself, and everything else involved in running a handicapping service?
Or, do both if both are profitable.
Comparison
Look at vulturing Ultimate X as a comparison, definite advantage, wouldn't you agree? Now, suppose I find a 2x multiplier on 7/5 Jacks or Better on a $5 denomination three-play machine, my expected return is:
(0.961472 * 4)/3 = 1.28196266667 or 128.19626667% of all monies bet, which means $75 * 1.28196266667 = 96.1472000002 - $75 = Expected Profit $21.15
Now, suppose instead of playing the hands, I could just call over a casino employee, have them hand me $21.15 and reset the game/denomination so that particular multiplier is gone. I'll take that every time. We can just go through all the machines, we can calculate the amount of value I found, he can pay me that and we can clear them all.
So, why wouldn't you take risk-free money?
Betting Consistency
I consider my sample size above to be inconclusive as to whether or not I could pick sports at an advantage, despite the fact that I am often forced to make picks that I absolutely would not bet (must pick five games per week) if I were betting actual money. I mean, if I were to lose 14 in a row I wouldn't even be ahead of the vig anymore, so there you go.
I think the only statement I could comfortably make is that I would either make a little money or not lose as much as most people do relative to their bet amounts.
EDIT TO ADD: Speaking of consistency I've only been below .500 once, by one game. I still have no faith in myself to put down actual money.
Quote: Mission146303-262 for a winning percentage of 53.63% over a period of seven years where I MUST pick five games per week, one game per week can optionally be double-weighted and only one NFL week per season can be skipped.
Ok. 52.38% is break even.
Quote: Mission146Selling picks supplements the money already made from picking well.
Or makes up the losses. :-)
Quote: Mission146I think the only statement I could comfortably make is that I would make a little money or not lose as much as most people do relative to their bet amounts.
At +1.2%.....and let’s face it, that could easily be flipped negative for the next 7 years. You will neither win nor lose much. Flipping a coin is probably good for 50%.
Quote: Mission146Speaking of consistency I've only been below .500 once, by one game. I still have no faith in myself to put down actual money.
It’s a tough business. My gut tells me handicappers are not selling picks by choice. It’s imperative that they do and it has very little, if anything, to do with not being able to make bets themselves. As always....my own opinion.
Quote: TDVegasOk. 52.38% is break even.
Definitely, I guess my point had more to do with being forced to pick so many games. I'd like to think that my record would be better if I could pick between 0-4 games every single week, or five, or more...but who knows? I never kept track in terms of I would actually bet this, so for all I know, my record would be worse for picking the games that I like the best.
Quote:Or makes up the losses. :-)
Definitely. Depending on how much you are betting, if you expect to sell x number of picks for y number of dollars, you could overcome bad betting. You could certainly sell enough to overcome the vig. One of the main takeaways from my article was that, even if you went with their best picker and bet $100/game (the metric they used while pimping his record) a player would still be down a substantial amount of money overall by virtue of having paid for the picks.
Quote:At +1.2%.....and let’s face it, that could easily be flipped negative for the next 7 years. You will neither win nor lose much. Flipping a coin is probably good for 50%.
Exactly. Like I said, it could be flipped negative just by going 0-14 over my next fourteen picks, which is certainly possible. I'm coming off of a 1-4 week.
Quote:It’s a tough business. My gut tells me handicappers are not selling picks by choice. It’s imperative that they do and it has very little, if anything, to do with not being able to make bets themselves. As always....my own opinion.
I would assume that is the case for most of them. I imagine there is a greater number who choose not to make the actual bets rather than who would otherwise like to make them but cannot.
Quote: Mission146One of the main takeaways from my article was that, even if you went with their best picker and bet $100/game (the metric they used while pimping his record) a player would still be down a substantial amount of money overall by virtue of having paid for the picks.
No question....and this can never be left out of the final mix. You seldom hear the for sale guys ever mention how their “cost per pick” charges affects the final % tally.
Noted below....These are the guys who get me chuckling.
For the record....on NFL, he’s hitting 45% this season.
https://www.vegasdomination.com/
Quote: TDVegasNo question....and this can never be left out of the final mix. You seldom hear the for sale guys ever mention how their “cost per pick” charges affects the final % tally.
Noted below....These are the guys who get me chuckling.
For the record....on NFL, he’s hitting 45% this season.
https://www.vegasdomination.com/
The Dominator is up to something else, is he? I like Scoblete better, but I don't know if he does sports or not. Scoblete is very friendly and funny, used to post here a lot, you know.
I wonder what he'll do with the last few weeks and playoffs? Do you think there's going to be a big speech about how you have to take the good with the bad or is there going to be a flurry of picks in a desperate effort to get to a .500 record? Keep me posted if you would, please.
It's a shame he's (Dominator) not as good at picking the 2019 NFL season as he is at superfluous line breaks, he'd be hitting at like 92% if he were.
I'm not betting or buying anything, but I'm going to look into that RAS a little bit and maybe write a follow-up about them. If they are moving Vegas lines by releasing stuff, that is at least interesting.
Quote: Mission146Depending on how much you are betting, if you expect to sell x number of picks for y number of dollars, you could overcome bad betting. You could certainly sell enough to overcome the vig.
Sort of like hedging your craps bets....only with someone else’s money.
I’m in the wrong business.
;-)
I mean, even picking legitimately, different people are going to reach the same conclusions...but if you subscribe to the most successful or one of the most successful sites whilst selling your own picks...you're not likely to run that much better or worse than they do, are you?
Quote: Mission146Here's an interesting thought: I wonder how many of these tout sites mirror one another's picks to some degree?
I mean, even picking legitimately, different people are going to reach the same conclusions...but if you subscribe to the most successful or one of the most successful sites whilst selling your own picks...you're not likely to run that much better or worse than they do, are you?
There’s a strong suspicion many of them are tied together....
“I'm still not sure of the exact affiliation but there's DEFINITELY a connection between these cappers:
James Jones (OddsWorthBetting.com)
Brian Blessing (TheInsidersGame.com)
Chris Sharp (BookieCrusher.com)
Dom the Dominator (VegasDomination.com)
Jimmy X (HardwoodHitman.com)
All of their sites are very similar in appearance using a "squeeze page" which is designed to capture an email address. All of them offer a $7 3-day fully guaranteed three day trial access that upsells to a future payment of $147/month ($167/month for Chris Sharp).
In addition:
1) All the domain names were (privately) registered using GoDaddy's registration service DomainsByProxy.com
2) All use the same AutoResponder service YMLP (Your Mailing List Provider) and every email they send out are all formatted exactly the same.
3) All use ClickBank for a payment processor
4) All of the websites are hosted by either BlueHost or WiredTree
5) All use the exact same address of 2780 S. Jones #3480 in Las Vegas NV
Jones has about ten other domains/sites for his service (MarchBookieBuster.com, TriplePlaySystem.com, TotalsEdgeSystem.com, StatHackPlaybook.com, StraightBetSystem.com, PushButtonPicks.com, WinningWithOTB.com, OWBSpecial.com, etc.).
I'm not sure that it's just one person pretending to be different handicappers. More likely there's a pretty decent marketer behind the scenes that has set up all the infrastructure and each capper just submits his daily picks. But there's just way too many similarities to say that they are not connected in some way.”
Obviously, I wouldn’t use them all, but say you sold some 60% of their picks as your own, 20% from something else considered really strong and 20% your own picks: Overall, you’d probably sell, “Your winners,” and wouldn’t beat them or be beaten by them by too much since so many of the picks are going to be the same. It’s also going to look kind of natural that these highly regarded handicappers are going to reach the same conclusions on a good few games.
So, as long as I’m making more in subscriptions of my own than I am paying to get subscriptions from other places, (plus my other expenses) then I’m going to be profitable.
Quote: Mission146Those are all interesting points, but my point was something more akin to: What would stop me from subscribing to something like RAS and then selling their picks as my own as soon as I get theirs?
Obviously, I wouldn’t use them all, but say you sold some 60% of their picks as your own, 20% from something else considered really strong and 20% your own picks: Overall, you’d probably sell, “Your winners,” and wouldn’t beat them or be beaten by them by too much since so many of the picks are going to be the same. It’s also going to look kind of natural that these highly regarded handicappers are going to reach the same conclusions on a good few games.
So, as long as I’m making more in subscriptions of my own than I am paying to get subscriptions from other places, (plus my other expenses) then I’m going to be profitable.
I guess that’s always a possibility. My understanding is he also deals with in game wagering where a subscriber would need to be lightning quick to make sure he receives the rec. in time and can make the wager and can actually get the listed odds.
I’m suspect of a paid service that has this as part of their service as it really doesn’t allow a bettor much time, if any to get the bet in.
Some of the complaints on RAS center on this, in addition to get the odds he wants to make the bet.
I mostly in the camp that a long-term winning handicapper wouldn't be selling his pick's. I really don't know any long-term winning handicappers. I do know guys that are winning Sports bettors, however, they take advantage of just about any + EV sports bet you can imagine and they don't sell anything.Quote: TDVegas
If someone is a winning handicapper I can think of a few reasons they would rather sell picks.
How many units would a good handicapper make per year on average how many different opportunities actually come up that he has an advantage? I ask this because I assume they're only making a few units per year and if that's the case you would have to make some seriously big bets in order to make serious money. As we all know there's all kinds of problems trying to get down big butts without changing the lines or getting cut off. You wood have to be seriously well Banked do the variance.
You mentioned getting Runners a few times. Finding an honest, non retarded, hard-working runner at a reasonable price is not easy at all. There's all kinds of problems that come along with that and it's not for everyone.
There's lots of bulshit involved with actually getting the vets in and getting the money out and getting all the online accounts, cashing out etc. There might be a limit on how much one could make by making bets I just be a big pain in the ass.
I have a feeling someone could make a lot more money with a lot less hassle selling picks to the masses VS actually putting in the bets yourself. Someone might be getting the best of Both worlds selling picks and betting themselves.
Personally, if I knew for certain I was a good enough handicapper where I was guaranteed to make even just one unit per year, I sure the hell would try to find a way of getting some monster action in.
Quote: TDVegasI guess that’s always a possibility. My understanding is he also deals with in game wagering where a subscriber would need to be lightning quick to make sure he receives the rec. in time and can make the wager and can actually get the listed odds.
I’m suspect of a paid service that has this as part of their service as it really doesn’t allow a bettor much time, if any to get the bet in.
Some of the complaints on RAS center on this, in addition to get the odds he wants to make the bet.
You're right on this one. RAS picks move the lines fast. No time to resell. In addition, they are very expensive. It would be pretty hard for mission to sell picks at those prices because he doesn't have years of success and a strong rep. The Brian Blessings of the world sell their picks for peanuts because they are worthless.
I'm speaking of RAS from a few years ago. I haven't paid attention recently, but believe Sop on that point.
Fezik has been known to steal picks from winning handicappers who have given out picks for free, like Groovin and pokerjoe, and then sell them.
Quote: Mission146Those are all interesting points, but my point was something more akin to: What would stop me from subscribing to something like RAS and then selling their picks as my own as soon as I get theirs?
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You wouldn’t be able to do it.
RSA is selling steam plays. I have a few friends who’ve used the service. They text you the pick and you literally have about 20-30 seconds to get the bet in. Luckily there’s a consistent time of day the text goes out so you can make yourself free and available to get the bet in when the time comes.
They pick a lot of small college games and totals. I’ve seen them send out a pick of let’s say over 128.5 in a college hoops game and within a minute the line is 137 everywhere. And then Usually in the next 10 minutes it creeps up another point or so, and then between that point and the game it crawls lower by 3-4 points. That’s because either people who got the 128.5 are middling, or sharps are just taking advantage of the overreaction upwards.
But if you get your bet in fast enough from when RSA sends it out, you’ll consistently have a better number then the closing line.
Quote: michael99000You wouldn’t be able to do it.
RSA is selling steam plays. I have a few friends who’ve used the service. They text you the pick and you literally have about 20-30 seconds to get the bet in. Luckily there’s a consistent time of day the text goes out so you can make yourself free and available to get the bet in when the time comes.
They pick a lot of small college games and totals. I’ve seen them send out a pick of let’s say over 128.5 in a college hoops game and within a minute the line is 137 everywhere. And then Usually in the next 10 minutes it creeps up another point or so, and then between that point and the game it crawls lower by 3-4 points. That’s because either people who got the 128.5 are middling, or sharps are just taking advantage of the overreaction upwards.
But if you get your bet in fast enough from when RSA sends it out, you’ll consistently have a better number then the closing line.
Fascinating information, thanks!
Maybe not RAS specifically, but like Rigondeaux said, perhaps from some other service or sell picks that guys with strong records have already offered for free.
Pretty wild about how RAS works! I tend to wonder if their subscribers or they themselves middle their own picks when the opportunity arises? I don’t know jack about basketball, in general, but it seems like 8-10 points could present an excellent middle opportunity. Could even be a partial hedge but technically not even really a hedge if you think both bets have +EV in their own right.
Quote: Mission146Fascinating information, thanks!
Maybe not RAS specifically, but like Rigondeaux said, perhaps from some other service or sell picks that guys with strong records have already offered for free.
Pretty wild about how RAS works! I tend to wonder if their subscribers or they themselves middle their own picks when the opportunity arises? I don’t know jack about basketball, in general, but it seems like 8-10 points could present an excellent middle opportunity. Could even be a partial hedge but technically not even really a hedge if you think both bets have +EV in their own right.
Many online books will cut off steam players. Especially if it’s the only action they’re putting in. If a player is consistently getting a bet in seconds before the line steams, they recognize that pattern. I get the feeling that if you do that AND middle your bets , it might come across even worse.
If you’re say $100 a game player and your constantly risking $10 to win $200 that a game falls within a 9 point window , you’re probably of no value to the book.
The other reason not to middle would be you’d be turning potential wins into break evens. if RSA can hit at 60% consistently you might just want to find a book that allows steam plays and place only the initial bet on each pick
Quote: SOOPOOAnother $8.65 down the tubes.......
If this chase was a fight, the ref would stop it now
