Thread Rating:

es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 10th, 2019 at 5:53:12 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

It definitely does not have a decent enough track record to be considered successful or even close. With his strategy, he's 2 losses away from being negative. He's doing ok right now, but it most likely won't continue this way.
ZCore13



This is why I am doing this publicly. It took me 500 wagers to grow from $1.00 to $35.00. If it worked once it will either work again or fail. I am here, plodding along, until one or the other happens.
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 10th, 2019 at 6:03:12 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I Would say a better way is to just record results without actual wagers and use the site to try to free roll real money.



Sports betting is fun. I can’t get money out until my real money balance exceeds $200. If the options are “track in an Excel spreadsheet where I have to do calculations” or “make actual bets, even if for pennies” wouldn’t you rather place actual bets? At least this way I have a goal; there is a $200 reward at the end of this if I am right.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 69
  • Posts: 5254
Thanks for this post from:
kgb92OnceDearbeachbumbabsJoeman
November 10th, 2019 at 6:08:30 PM permalink
I like the way that the OP is doing it. It is legit but won't scale. It sounds like the free promo money he is getting may offset the -EV. I don't understand why he is being criticized, He is not claiming it is a get rich scheme, only that he may make a few dollars if he continues. Probably the most legit poster for sports that we have seen on this forum. Why do we care if he only wins $10?
Living longer does not always infer +EV
UP84
UP84
Joined: May 22, 2012
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 71
November 10th, 2019 at 6:34:56 PM permalink
Quote: es330td

There is no brick & mortar casino out there that wouldn’t accept my action for 100 or even 1000 times what I am wagering.

Correct! For all practical purposes, this is a scale invariant endeavor, and if some folks are annoyed that it involves a beginning balance of $33.92, and wagers of $1.00 or so, then they should just use their imagination and add a few zeros before the decimals when thinking about it.

As for those who question your betting theory, I would ask them now, at this early stage of the test, to state their objective criteria for evaluating the success or failure of your theory based on the outcomes of the wagers. Without that, any comments on the validity of your theory will ring hollow.
Last edited by: UP84 on Nov 10, 2019
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 10th, 2019 at 6:41:54 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I like the way that the OP is doing it. It is legit but won't scale. It sounds like the free promo money he is getting may offset the -EV. I don't understand why he is being criticized, He is not claiming it is a get rich scheme, only that he may make a few dollars if he continues. Probably the most legit poster for sports that we have seen on this forum. Why do we care if he only wins $10?



I use the promo money to place bets on other stuff, not this strategy. 100% of the wagers I am placing for this test are in the real money account only. I was doing that before but am no longer doing so to keep the strategy legit. This is what I meant about keeping the process “honest.”
UP84
UP84
Joined: May 22, 2012
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 71
November 10th, 2019 at 7:04:32 PM permalink
Also, I don't think the OP has expressly stated what HIS criteria for success is, nor do I think it's necessary, unless he starts to claim success.
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 10th, 2019 at 7:18:38 PM permalink
Quote: UP84

Also, I don't think the OP has expressly stated what HIS criteria for success is, nor do I think it's necessary, unless he starts to claim success.



My initial criteria for success is doubling my balance two times. It will probably take me a year or more and a few hundred more wagers.
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 11th, 2019 at 5:46:33 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

As for those who question your betting theory, I would ask them now, at this early stage of the test, to state their objective criteria for evaluating the success or failure of your theory based on the outcomes of the wagers. Without that, any comments on the validity of your theory will ring hollow.



This does not matter to me. If it works, their goalposts will be passed wherever they are moved.
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 11th, 2019 at 6:56:32 AM permalink
Last Result: +0.36
Running Balance: $3.80
Balance: $37.72

Sport: NFL
Game: Seattle @ SF 11/11/19
Pick: 49’ers-259
Wager: $0.94
es330td
es330td 
Joined: Mar 19, 2019
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 137
November 11th, 2019 at 11:59:45 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I'm not into sports betting, but I do find this thread interesting.



Thank you, though my last several picks have all been right. Picking correctly every time is great but not a reasonable long term strategy one can rely on. I think it gets interesting when I lose a game and have to make it back. SportsPlays says I’m 212-82-3 over the last year so I do lose about 25% of the time.

  • Jump to: