MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
7craps
September 11th, 2019 at 5:54:43 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

I saw your computer simulation, and it is close to what I do, but still there is one variant that, to me seems to be part of the program, which probably doesn't matter. If a shooter makes any of my don't numbers, I stop betting against that shooter, take all of the odds on all the numbers I have established don't bets with, and wait until another shooter turn arrives.

That reduces your average hourly loss, but only because you're betting less (putting less money on the table). The house edge isn't affected. It's still 0% on the Odds bets and ~1.4% on everything else.

Quote: JORDAN1

Another question would be just a single coin toss bet. No house advantage, just a 50/50 bet. Is there a way to come out ahead on such a game?

No. The house edge on such a game is zero, so you're asking how to make 0 become greater than 0. Can't be done. Zero = 0. Zero is not >0.

Quote: JORDAN1

Everyone hates sessions, but don't they deserve some merit, especially in a game of coin toss?

I address the significance of sessions in my article on betting systems.

Quote: JORDAN

What would happen if you played a coin toss game with four simple rules.

1 -Whenever you lose three coin tosses in a row, stop a session. (Could be a hundred flips occur but you only stop when you lose three in a row)

2 - If you lose three in a row starting out a session, stop the session.

3- Lose a total of three tosses (like this -1, 0, -1, -2, -1, -2 ,-3) stop the session.

4 - If you get down to -2 and get the losses back to 0 (even) stop the session.

The long-term average is dead even. Stopping based on results doesn't help or hurt you (besides that you're no longer putting money at risk). I cover this in detail in my article on the Gambler's Fallacy.

Quote: JORDAN1

Is there any way that one could turn this into a winning game?

No. Again, I refer you to my article on betting systems, which provides four different pieces of evidence for why betting systems don't overcome the house edge.

Quote: JORDAN1

The reason behind my question if the house odds can get down to .0004, isn't the game as close to a coin toss as possible? So if it is, then couldn't sessions be used to possibly obtain a possible (ever so slightly) advantage?

No. If you're playing a game with an expected result of -0.04%, then the game is negative, period. A negative number is not a positive number.

You're not the first person to have these ideas, but they're very old ideas. I mean literally centuries old. They've been studied for that long, and the conclusion is always the same: Changing the amount, frequency, or criteria of bets doesn't change the outcome. No one has ever shown otherwise.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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  • Posts: 1852
September 11th, 2019 at 6:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

If a shooter makes any of my don't numbers, I stop betting against that shooter, take all of the odds on all the numbers I have established don't bets with, and wait until another shooter turn arrives.

that is a 'feel good' play only and NO such math or
simulation results shows that it makes you WIN more money.

IF you bet less, on average, you lose less
PERIOD
Quote: JORDAN1

The shooter that knocked down one of my don't numbers might roll for 30 minutes or more, but I don't dare make another bet.

LOL. Playing SCARED never wins.
OR the shooter might just 7 out on the very next roll. IF a point is established it is the single most probable outcome of any one roll - a 7.

There have been some craps gaming writers, Frank Scoblete, to name one, that says to lose only one bet against a random shooter...
He NEVER has shown ANY math or simulation data to back his FALSE claim and he is one that has used math guys - abortions to their work - to make his ideas, THAT ARE GARBAGE, smell sweeter.

IMO, play Craps to have fun as you really will not win over a lifetime of play.
You only get one lifetime session.

of course, believe what you want and 'flip the bird' to the rest IF that makes you feel even better while playing Craps.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 13th, 2019 at 8:58:56 AM permalink
love this tee:...........................................................................



it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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September 13th, 2019 at 9:04:11 AM permalink
So where can we get dice tee shirts?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2404
September 13th, 2019 at 9:23:33 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So where can we get dice tee shirts?




you can get the one I posted at this link but I don't know anything about the company and can't vouch for them:


https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/4124937-vintage-the-dice-giveth-and-taketh-away?utm_source=paid_search&utm_medium=ppc&utm_campaign=PLA&utm_content=tshirt-unisex&feed_sku=4124937D1V&ar_clx=yes&ar_channel=google_ads&ar_campaign=1510062400&ar_adgroup=57012254846&ar_ad=352852398878&ar_strategy=search&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIlJmQtpnO5AIVE4vICh1URAgEEAQYAyABEgJFx_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


here's another tee I like:


it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 3990
September 13th, 2019 at 9:31:33 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1


Another question would be just a single coin toss bet. No house advantage, just a 50/50 bet. Is there a way to come out ahead on such a game?


For this no-edge scenario there is zero reason to run a simulation. Your question is answered completely by OnceDear's rule of Thumb
Or. TLDR. No. You cannot get an edge. Yes, you could probably come out ahead: Pointless.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1559
September 13th, 2019 at 10:30:52 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Everyone hates sessions, but don't they deserve some merit.



There it is, my cue that I can stop reading a system thread.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 87
  • Posts: 3719
September 13th, 2019 at 10:32:23 AM permalink
Quote: JORDAN1

Another question would be just a single coin toss bet. No house advantage, just a 50/50 bet. Is there a way to come out ahead on such a game?


Only if you have unlimited time and unlimited budget.

This has been discussed before here. Time to break out my "50/50 game analyzer" that counts the number of coin flips needed to end up ahead.

After a run of 100,000 games, there were 16 instances where you needed more than 1,000,000 flips before you finally came out ahead; in four of them, you needed more than a billion flips, and in all four cases, there was a point where your losses exceeded 45,000 bets (in two of them, they exceeded 75,000).
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
Joined: Sep 1, 2019
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  • Posts: 13
September 13th, 2019 at 7:43:53 PM permalink
Thanks for all the insights and the lengthy work on that simulator you made to evaluate my "system." Funny thing, a couple of clicks into running the sim, my bankroll turned from $5000 to $13000. The overall loss was over $30,000 for a million rolls, but if I was playing my "system" and ran $5000 to $13000, there would be no way I would continue playing all the way back to zero dollars or even a loss. If $13,000 was hit, I would stop when I got it back down to $10,000. I know, I know, and oh yeah, I know... Sessions are good for nothing.

Another fun thought. The casino wins with their house edge over a bunch of bets over a long period of time. What if... You ONLY gamble 5 times in your life? Each time you go gambling you take $5000. You play games that offer as close to a 50/50 bet as possible. You bet it all at one time.

You have these outcomes.

Lose all 5 - Total Loss $25000
Lose 4 out of 5 - Total Loss $20,000
etc...

or

Win all 5 - Total gains $25,000
Win 4 out of 5 - Total gains $20,000
etc...

Not a bad way to go at it. Losing $25,000 over a life-time of $1 bets is the same as the 5 shots described above, but the house advantage hardly comes into play with this way of betting. Will anyone try this? No, but this is probably the best way to gamble in one's life. Better than Martindales and Fibonacci systems, anyway.

Thanks again.
JORDAN1
JORDAN1
Joined: Sep 1, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 13
September 13th, 2019 at 7:45:22 PM permalink
Fibonacci sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc... Similar to a Martindale system, but in my little opinion a bit more stable.

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